Modwiz' Musings: Topical Discussion

**Dreamtimer** · 1st August 2016, 14:55

Nuclear Shelter? How 'bout a bucket list plan? Let's party like it's 1999!

**bsbray** · 1st August 2016, 22:15

Actual national polls here in the US are going to be a lot different than this slashdot poll. I mean aside from giving us a peak into the thoughts of some slashdot members, it really isn't going to tell you much else. Even the best polling companies here in the US are having trouble gauging the real pulse of Americans right now, because the situation is so disturbed and changing from week to week.

The best they can figure is that Trump and Hillary are pretty even nationally and that 3rd party candidates are going to have an unpredictable effect because they may not even make it onto the ballot in all states.

**Aragorn** · 5th August 2016, 22:52

Another update on the Slashdot poll, now with 29385 votes having come in...

Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Jill Stein
Gary Johnson
Other (specified in the comments)
I would not vote
Cowboy Neal (mock choice in every Slashdot poll)

21%
32%
5%
15%
3%
8%
12%

Seems like Jill Stein has lost 1% to Gary Johnson. Everything else is pretty much the same. Yesterday, Hillary briefly peaked at 33% for a few hours, but then she dropped back down to 32%. Nevertheless, she's been leading all throughout the poll.

**Aianawa** · 5th August 2016, 23:08

Rigged, bought and paid for Rigged, the poll above that is. I put it on my Favs and continued watching, if not rigged within, is being rigged without imo.

**Aragorn** · 5th August 2016, 23:57

Originally posted by Aianawa

Rigged, bought and paid for Rigged, the poll above that is. I put it on my Favs and continued watching, if not rigged within, is being rigged without imo.

I don't believe that it would have been be rigged, but at the same time, it's probably not accurate as a representation of how the citizens of the USA currently feel about their presidential candidates.

Slashdot is a very small community, not all too dissimilar from how we here are part of the alternative community. Slashdot isn't part of the alternative community, but it's a very US-centered community of geeks with a focus on technology — mainly IT, but other areas are also covered — which means that not everyone in the grander mainstream will even be aware of Slashdot's existence.

So I do not think that the poll would have been rigged. But skewed, yes, that it probably is.

**Aianawa** · 6th August 2016, 00:11

Okay, cheers, so is there a fair poll as such in usa ?.

**Aragorn** · 6th August 2016, 00:26

Originally posted by Aianawa

Okay, cheers, so is there a fair poll as such in usa ?.

That, you would have to ask an Acronymian — I myself am a Ewwropean.

**Dreamtimer** · 6th August 2016, 04:17

I don't think there is a single fair poll that I could point to. I prefer a meta-analysis type of approach. At Fivethirtyeight they analyze polls and give three types of forecast: if the election was held today, polls alone, and polls combined with historical data. bsbray linked to the site already.

While people, and the media I suppose, were so sure Hillary would win against Obama, Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight was showing how Obama was getting the delegates and heading for the presidency. I wasn't shocked like so many were. There was also a professor from Emory University who predicted the election results very accurately and Markos, et al, over at Daily Kos also had it right.

Who could predict that a president would get appointed to his second term by his majority in the Supreme Court? No poll that I know of...

**Aianawa** · 6th August 2016, 04:19

Oh no, more confusion, appears August may provide confusion within, feel the differing polls, usually media or media connected will be obvious in their communication abuse this time round.

**modwiz** · 6th August 2016, 06:39

Originally posted by Dreamtimer

I don't think there is a single fair poll that I could point to. I prefer a meta-analysis type of approach. At Fivethirtyeight they analyze polls and give three types of forecast: if the election was held today, polls alone, and polls combined with historical data. bsbray linked to the site already.

While people, and the media I suppose, were so sure Hillary would run against Obama, Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight was showing how Obama was getting the delegates and heading for the presidency. I wasn't shocked like so many were. There was also a professor from Emory University who predicted the election results very accurately and Markos, et al, over at Daily Kos also had it right.

Who could predict that a president would get appointed to his second term by his majority in the Supreme Court? No poll that I know of...

Nate Silver is always a place to keep an eye on, as it is very dynamic. Trump was ahead about 10 days ago an now he is less than 20%. This is a poll to look at daily, IMO. Not that is is necessarily true.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

**modwiz** · 8th August 2016, 06:22

I really like this quote from John Adams, second president of the USA. Not particularly uplifting but as someone said, the truth will upset you before it sets you free. The ToT censor will not allow to to write the original. The asterisks would make it look goofy and possible unintelligible.

” Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious and less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true in fact and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice or ambition for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and most conscientious moralists to resist temptation.”

Citizens are responsible for who they appoint. Cults of personality will not get the job done. Special interest groups should be an obvious incongruity to the common good.

**modwiz** · 8th August 2016, 07:12

Oh the things that can be caught on an infra-red camera. Somebody let loose with a Hillary.

If only she would dissipate as quickly.

**Aianawa** · 8th August 2016, 07:16

Love it lol.

**Dreamtimer** · 8th August 2016, 07:21

That one may have been deadly, but by the looks of the velocity it was not entirely silent.:

I've often wondered how a flatus would appear to the eye...

**modwiz** · 13th August 2016, 23:43

Here is a good one. Germany's president declares "The elite are not the problem, the people are". He got an appropriately "warm" reception in the streets of Germany.