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Thread: Who Cares that Iran energy production (and sales) have come on line ?

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    Who Cares that Iran energy production (and sales) have come on line ?

    We should be paying attention - why?

    Russia for instance, holds an economic stranglehold on natural gas sales to Europe. Cutthroat prices designed to keep the European union in-check, "or else"..

    France has been told it seems to stop "fracking" which would lead to an energy surplus of Natural Gas. They have been told Fracking is so dangerous, when in fact the danger comes from deep injection wells disposing of waste water products (some products derived from recovered spent fracking water - the environmentalists heard "fracking" and thought the fracking of wells was causing earthquakes when the full story is Disposal Wells being over-pressured with fracking water, and associated oil well water separated out from production is the cause...)

    Reading it as a conspiracy, Russia needs to have high energy prices to keep their war machine running without depleting their stored coffers...


    Here is the data in multiple posts to cover the topics as to Why is it Important that Iran now is coming on line with ENERGY (oil and gas).

    ================

    The west seeks to destroy Russian stranglehold on energy (i.e. sales to Europe at inflated prices)..

    Iran coming on line with not just oil but natural gas puts a crimp in Russian economy. Oil being artificially lowered in sales prices puts a major crimp in the discretionary income Russia has to pay for waging war.

    Another forum's member said this to me:

    So there are countries willing to buy Iranian oil. So what ?
    Who is buying is interesting, who is wanting to establish economic contract relationships is important. It seems that what their interests are in doing that when they themselves have good energy reserves is especially interesting.

    Times - UK " Britain is to lead an international effort to stop Russia from using its vast natural energy supplies to hold the world to ransom.

    "As President Putin continues to stoke fears of civil war in Ukraine, energy ministers are preparing to weaken his power by reducing reliance on Russian gas.

    "Speaking before a summit for G7 countries next month, Ed Davey, the energy secretary, warned that Putin had the west in a stranglehold.."

    Iran's energy sales offer solutions to Europe besides buying from Russia.

    (Sources - multiple 1)

    Why is Putin trying to get Natural Gas from other sellers?

    Supposedly Shale Gas is so bad, that it has to be stopped worldwide. Shale Gas recovery requires very deep (formation protected hydraulic fracturing operations - 'fracking') drilling, it is expensive, but it yields high values from productive fields.

    To sabotage those economically attempting to recover shale gas, a campaign would have to be created to discredit, and put fear into the minds of lay people, eventually to get local governments to "ban fracking", using all sorts of excuses (bypassing and hiding the damage that disposal injection wells, the real culprit)... Russia then maintains its economic stranglehold in Europe's gas buyers who rely on it for instance for industry and heating homes.

    GET THE GAS, cut deals with those to keep Russia the Supplier for Europe -

    The tension between Israel and Iran ratchets up.. an interesting sub-text has developed over the role of Iran’s traditional backer, Russia. While many Western observers continue to raise the spectre of a ‘wider Middle East conflagration’ (an argument we have consistently refuted), and one that could drag in Russia, a whole new, higher value, game chip is now in play: Moscow’s interest in Israeli energy.

    Israel and its neighbouring potential partner, Cyprus, of course must be quite aware that Gazprom, Russia’s battering ram, can easily prove to be a Trojan Horse in any major future natural gas development. Certainly, they will try to affect a project that could lessen their energy stranglehold over Europe. 20 million metric tons of liquid natural gas (LNG) exported each year from the eastern Mediterranean into Europe would amount to about one third of current Russian exports.

    Whatever we may think of Vladimir Putin’s politics, one thing is clear, he is a shrewd, often ruthless, operator on the global stage. But Putin’s Kremlin is clearly rattled by the threat of decline for that which underpins Russia’s entire economy: its energy hegemony.

    Putin is only too aware of the triple whammy of falling domestic energy productivity, surging global shale development in the wake of the transforming US shale revolution, and a new threat posed to a European market still dependent on Russian gas imports – the significant potential of Israeli and Cypriot gas exports.

    Getting involved with Israel's attempts for energy independence, Gazprom is potentially that snake in the garden.

    According to reports, while publicly playing down the impact that shale gas and oil is likely to have, Putin is privately urging Russia’s energy majors to learn all they can about hydraulic fracturing techniques. Meanwhile, in a bid to retain a key stake in its European export market – Russia supplies a quarter of all Europe’s (rising) natural gas demand – Moscow is set on doing all in its power to protect its ‘captive’ market.


    To date, Europe’s anti-shale gas policies have played into Russian hands
    Why is Iran Energy production coming on line important ? Pretty obvious.

    Why is Putin trying to get Natural Gas from other sellers?

    Supposedly Shale Gas is so bad, that it has to be stopped worldwide. Shale Gas recovery requires very deep (formation protected hydraulic fracturing operations - 'fracking') drilling, it is expensive, but it yields high values from productive fields.

    To sabotage those economically attempting to recover shale gas, a campaign would have to be created to discredit, and put fear into the minds of lay people, eventually to get local governments to "ban fracking", using all sorts of excuses (bypassing and hiding the damage that disposal injection wells, the real culprit)... Russia then maintains its economic stranglehold in Europe's gas buyers who rely on it for instance for industry and heating homes.

    GET THE GAS, cut deals with those to keep Russia the Supplier for Europe -

    The tension between Israel and Iran ratchets up.. an interesting sub-text has developed over the role of Iran’s traditional backer, Russia. While many Western observers continue to raise the spectre of a ‘wider Middle East conflagration’ (an argument we have consistently refuted), and one that could drag in Russia, a whole new, higher value, game chip is now in play: Moscow’s interest in Israeli energy.

    Israel and its neighbouring potential partner, Cyprus, of course must be quite aware that Gazprom, Russia’s battering ram, can easily prove to be a Trojan Horse in any major future natural gas development. Certainly, they will try to affect a project that could lessen their energy stranglehold over Europe. 20 million metric tons of liquid natural gas (LNG) exported each year from the eastern Mediterranean into Europe would amount to about one third of current Russian exports.

    Whatever we may think of Vladimir Putin’s politics, one thing is clear, he is a shrewd, often ruthless, operator on the global stage. But Putin’s Kremlin is clearly rattled by the threat of decline for that which underpins Russia’s entire economy: its energy hegemony.

    Putin is only too aware of the triple whammy of falling domestic energy productivity, surging global shale development in the wake of the transforming US shale revolution, and a new threat posed to a European market still dependent on Russian gas imports – the significant potential of Israeli and Cypriot gas exports.

    Getting involved with Israel's attempts for energy independence, Gazprom is potentially that snake in the garden.

    According to reports, while publicly playing down the impact that shale gas and oil is likely to have, Putin is privately urging Russia’s energy majors to learn all they can about hydraulic fracturing techniques. Meanwhile, in a bid to retain a key stake in its European export market – Russia supplies a quarter of all Europe’s (rising) natural gas demand – Moscow is set on doing all in its power to protect its ‘captive’ market.


    To date, Europe’s anti-shale gas policies have played into Russian hands
    Why is Iran Energy production coming on line important ? Pretty obvious.

    What else does Iran have in the way of Energy Products?

    Natural Gas - (good quality)

    UK especially needs Natural Gas and has been buying from Russia (GazProm) who has had a stranglehold on natural gas prices.. (think economic leverage and posturing)

    The Kish GasField on the Iranian side is large. Qatar also has claims to that field (their side of the Gulf).

    Here is one of the production maps (red is gas, green demarks oil).



    The field also holds at least 1 billion barrels (160,000,000 m3) of condensate (oil equivalent) of which at least 331 million barrels (52,600,000 m3) are recoverable.

    In February 2010, an Iranian consortium headed by Bank Mellat signed a $10-billion agreement with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to develop the Kish gas field. The gas field will produce 85 million cubic meters of natural gas per day.

    However - South Pars / North Dome Gas-Condensate field. It is the world's largest gas field, shared between Iran and Qatar.

    According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the field holds an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet (51 trillion cubic metres) of in-situ natural gas and some 50 billion barrels (7.9 billion cubic metres) of natural gas condensates.

    Looking at the world's largest gas field, dwarf's Russia..



    It seems that Russia no doubt would love to get its hands on that field, and stranglehold the rest of the world's natural gas consumers. Possibly that is why they are buying small amounts of oil from Iran from the sanctions relief action, to get a toe hold, then possibly by the throat if they can put Iran into a compromising political situation.

    From Reuters - "Russia's seizure of the Crimea and its threat to cut off gas to Ukraine, a transit route to the rest of Europe, have revived calls to reduce the EU's reliance on Moscow for energy, but the blocs options are limited and costly."

    Russia today is Europe's biggest supplier of oil, coal and natural gas, meeting around a third of demand for all those fuels, according to Eurostat data, and receiving in return a thumping $250 billion (151 billion pounds) a year.

    "European leaders said on Friday that the stand-off with Moscow over Crimea made them more determined than ever to end decades of dependence on Russian gas."

    Possibly a motivating factor to let Iran off from sanctions, Europe needs the ENERGY, and Russia is not cooperating..

    (Source - multiple - 1)

    Putin's Energy Stranglehold on Europe - http://euanmearns.com/putins-energy-stranglehold-on-europe/

    "Zbigniew Brzezinski the former US National Security adviser to Jimmy Carter: His theory basically claims that firstly the USSR, then the Russian Federation is using its energy resources to bring Europe to heel through energy dependence.

    "Russia needs Ukraine for its energy dominance, as a “pipeline corridor country” so the West and Russia have totally opposing goals in Ukraine and Crimea. This could mean war."

    From Zero Hedge - http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-31/russia%E2%80%99s-gazprom-tightens-its-stranglehold-europe-france-falls-natural-gas-wa -

    "Why would France suddenly prohibit shale gas exploration? Sure, there are environmental issues with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the methods used to extract gas from porous shale deep underground: flammable drinking water, earth quakes, cows that die, radioactive sludge in sewage treatment plants.... But French governments have had, let’s say, an uneasy relationship with environmentalists. Its spy service DGSE, for example, sank Greenpeace’s flagship, the Rainbow Warrior, in the port of Auckland, New Zealand, killing one person."

    Price Fixing through threats of Economic Terrorism

    "Gazprom’s “underhanded tactics” and “scaremongering about a new technology” have Moscow’s nod of approval and are designed to dissuade governments from developing their own shale-gas reserves, according to a report by Platts, a global provider of information on energy, petrochemicals, and metals. Efforts include all manner of operations, online and through encouraging demonstrations, but also paying public relation firms to spread “myths and misconceptions,” said Aviezer Tucker, assistant director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas. A “European Union-wide ban” on shale-gas production, he said, would be the “holy grail.”

    "With France already knocked off, Sergei Komlev of Gazprom Export has been bouncing around the world in his fight against European shale gas."

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    Russia and Iran are actually on very good terms, and Russia was making deals to purchase oil from Iran (to keep it out of Europe) before the western sanctions were even lifted. Russia is one of the nations that would lobby heavily against any military action against Iran and I'm sure Iran is fully aware of that.

    I think the real target here is Saudi Arabia, but US oil corporations are taking a heavy beating too through all of this. There have already been hundreds of layoffs in the US. Who is going to break first between the US oil companies, Russia, and Saudi Arabia? The US doesn't even have a stockpile of real cash like Russia does. We just print money out of nowhere and pray to God that everybody keeps accepting our "IOU's" even though there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the debt will ever be paid off, and everybody knows it. There's nothing to say that our own economy won't collapse before Russia's oil market does.

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    Who in Europe (and elsewhere) is buying Iranian Crude oil?

    It appears these countries are VERY interested in buying Iranian Oil and don't care about market prices "falling" with speculation about oil prices from Iran coming back on line "without sanctions"..

    A tanker for France’s Total SA was being loaded at Kharg Port while vessels chartered for Chinese and Spanish companies were due to arrive later Sunday, an Iranian oil ministry official said. A tanker hired by a Russian company hadn’t arrived, and was still expected, the official said.

    The official didn’t identify the companies that had hired the other three tankers and didn’t name the vessels. Total declined to comment.

    Iran is trying to rebuild its oil production after sanctions were lifted in January, with plans to boost output and exports by 1 million barrels a day this year.

    Supply deals were signed with Total and Hellenic Petroleum SA of Greece.

    Iran is planning three initial shipments to Europe carrying 4 million barrels of oil with 2 million barrels going to Total and the rest to companies from Spain and Russia, Roknoddin Javadi, managing director of National Iranian Oil Co., said on Saturday, according to the Iranian oil ministry’s news service Shana.

    Total, Spanish refiner Compania Espanola de Petroleos and Russia’s Lukoil PJSC all booked cargoes of Iranian crude to sail from Kharg Island to European ports, according to shipping reports compiled by Bloomberg earlier this month.

    Total chartered the VLCC Atlantas, Spain’s Cepsa booked the Suezmax Monte Toledo and Lukoil’s trading unit Litasco booked the Distya Akula (vessel movements can be tracked via the internet).

    The Atlantas is scheduled to head for European ports, the Monte Toledo for Spain and the Distya Akula for Constantza, Romania, the data show.



    (Source)

    Who IS ?

    Compañía Española de Petróleos, S.A.U. is a Spanish multinational oil and gas company. It operates in several European countries as well as in Algeria, Canada, Colombia, Morocco, Brazil, and Panama.

    LukOil - Лукойл - is Russia's second largest oil company and its second largest producer of oil. Headquartered in Moscow, Lukoil is the second largest public company (next to ExxonMobil) in terms of proven oil and gas reserves. It is a wonder WHY would LukOil need to buy oil from Iran.

    Hellenic Petroleum SA - Hellenic Petroleum S.A. is one of the largest oil companies in the Balkans and with its roots dating to 1958 with the establishment of the first oil refinery in Greece. Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece, in Thessaloniki, Elefsina and Aspropyrgos, which account for 57% of the refining capacity of the country (the remaining 43% belongs to Motor Oil Hellas), and one in Skopje, Macedonia, the OKTA refinery, which is supplied by crude oil through pipelines from Thessaloniki and covers approximately 85% of the country's needs. Crude oil for the refineries is supplied from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Russia. The company also operates over 1400 gas stations in Greece and about 350 gas stations in Albania, Georgia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Montenegro and the Republic of Macedonia. It also has a network which sells LPG, jet fuel, naval fuels and lubricants.

    France’s Total SA - is a French multinational integrated oil and gas company and one of the six "Supermajor" oil companies in the world. Its businesses cover the entire oil and gas chain, from crude oil and natural gas exploration and production to power generation, transportation, refining, petroleum product marketing, and international crude oil and product trading. Total is also a large-scale chemicals manufacturer. The company has its head office in the Tour Total in La Défense district in Courbevoie, west of Paris. Products: Oil and gas exploration and production, natural gas and LNG trading and transportation, oil refining and chemicals.

    National Iranian Oil Company - The National Iranian Oil Company, a government-owned corporation under the direction of the Ministry of Petroleum of Iran, is an oil and natural gas producer and distributor headquartered in Tehran. It was established in 1948.

    (For my discussion on Disposal wells, the real problem, not "fracking" see my dialog with Babara on Earthquakes from a few days ago.

    Quote Originally posted by bsbray View Post
    Russia and Iran are actually on very good terms, and Russia was making deals to purchase oil from Iran (to keep it out of Europe) before the western sanctions were even lifted. Russia is one of the nations that would lobby heavily against any military action against Iran and I'm sure Iran is fully aware of that.

    I think the real target here is Saudi Arabia, but US oil corporations are taking a heavy beating too through all of this. There have already been hundreds of layoffs in the US. Who is going to break first between the US oil companies, Russia, and Saudi Arabia? The US doesn't even have a stockpile of real cash like Russia does. We just print money out of nowhere and pray to God that everybody keeps accepting our "IOU's" even though there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the debt will ever be paid off, and everybody knows it. There's nothing to say that our own economy won't collapse before Russia's oil market does.
    Saudi tho although they are not playing ball, they don't sell natural gas to Europe, Russia has the stranglehold. Iran started releasing its OIL as a start, but Iran still holds MUCH more natural gas then Russia has, and Britain has made it clear that they will work towards busting the Russian GazProm's natural gas stranglehold. Russia trying to get in bed with Israel's Leviathan project (and then sabotage it later possibly) would easily quash an Iranian opposition. The Turkey/Ukranian oil issues started early on, pipeline sabotage..

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    Quote Originally posted by bsbray
    The US doesn't even have a stockpile of real cash like Russia does. We just print money out of nowhere and pray to God that everybody keeps accepting our "IOU's" even though there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the debt will ever be paid off, and everybody knows it.
    +1 to this.

    I would like to add, with rates at zero, economic warfare is cheap.

    Basically, it means you have unlimited funds that can be used in any creative way that destabilizes your opponent. Furthermore, with the rates at zero, you can tell the Central bank isn't interested in "normal" economics, free money to whoever is privileged enough to have direct relationships. Add high frequency trading and Fed involvement in the markets and you have a way to keep the economic warchest full.

    Engagement in the commodities markets directly effects the price of the commodity, the price of oil explained with ordinary economics; strategically, with free money, the agents in the market can be happy to take a loss selling oil, just to keep revenues of everyone else at a disadvantage. The russian central bank is keeping rates at like 10%, just for perspective, and since all currency is essentially loaned into existence it is evident that they (the russians) are bleading economically, with or without their hard currency.

    Mr Farrell spoke of two factions... You can tell the playing field is absolutely not level.

    Just be glad that the food commodities are not being targeted for price increases. That wouldn't have much effect on Russia, of course...

    Negative rates is another interesting enigma... You mentioned paying off your debts... I think the play is mostly just about maintaining debts for whoever is "worthy", and crippling those who are not. Greece came to mind.

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    Quote Originally posted by lcam88 View Post
    +1 to this.

    I would like to add, with rates at zero, economic warfare is cheap.

    Basically, it means you have unlimited funds that can be used in any creative way that destabilizes your opponent. Furthermore, with the rates at zero, you can tell the Central bank isn't interested in "normal" economics, free money to whoever is privileged enough to have direct relationships. Add high frequency trading and Fed involvement in the markets and you have a way to keep the economic warchest full.

    Engagement in the commodities markets directly effects the price of the commodity, the price of oil explained with ordinary economics; strategically, with free money, the agents in the market can be happy to take a loss selling oil, just to keep revenues of everyone else at a disadvantage. The russian central bank is keeping rates at like 10%, just for perspective, and since all currency is essentially loaned into existence it is evident that they (the russians) are bleading economically, with or without their hard currency.

    Mr Farrell spoke of two factions... You can tell the playing field is absolutely not level.

    Just be glad that the food commodities are not being targeted for price increases. That wouldn't have much effect on Russia, of course...

    Negative rates is another interesting enigma... You mentioned paying off your debts... I think the play is mostly just about maintaining debts for whoever is "worthy", and crippling those who are not. Greece came to mind.
    And I wonder just how is Greece able to BUY the Iranian hydrocarbon products (promise to pay you tuesday for a hamburger delivered today).

    Doesn't Saudi have a bigger cash cow in the bank from their oil sales than Russia, and last I heard they weren't building nukes and actively taking over former Russian held states, or are they doing something we haven't heard?

    Iran's natural gas would put a rather nasty chink in Russia's make Europe go to her knees strategy to comply with the Red Bear.. Wouldn't it, (staying on topic)..

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    The Saudi's have a bit of fat from all those years of ~100 /barrel days. Iran and Iraq where largely sanctioned during that time... The Saudis have opted to purchase high end US military hardware... No doubt they have used some of it on Yemen.

    Greece largely got bailed out when they signed up for Austerity measures... The democratic reshuffling of assets has lent them some level of credit (the ability to offer paying for mondays hamburger on tuesday).

    I think Iran alliance with Russia is more to do with not being friends with their enemies friends (US Saudi relations). They tried promoting "friendly" relations with the US for some time, that effort was aggravated by their nuclear stuff and Israel. I think Russia is really their only choice, since Russia is trying to protect their infra into europe, they sort of have no choice but to back Syria, and conveniently Iran has no problems killing sunnis, just as sunnis (the saudis) have no problem killing them. <shrug/>

    One thing is clear, the religious influence over that part of the world has made them a lot more receptive to manipulations...

    Even with low prices, Russia and Iran must continue to produce [oil], else they will just go bankrupt, especially with the economic advantages of free money that circulates with the western backed influences. That only to say that Iran has no choice but to accept Greek credit offerings, however much a joke they may be.

    Ironically, their acceptance of Greek promises is one of the things that keeps the financial systems house of cards standing upright. Not the only thing, certainly not, but they are playing along with the current money game.

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    Quote Originally posted by lcam88 View Post
    The Saudi's have a bit of fat from all those years of ~100 /barrel days. Iran and Iraq where largely sanctioned during that time... The Saudis have opted to purchase high end US military hardware... No doubt they have used some of it on Yemen.

    Greece largely got bailed out when they signed up for Austerity measures... The democratic reshuffling of assets has lent them some level of credit (the ability to offer paying for mondays hamburger on tuesday).

    I think Iran alliance with Russia is more to do with not being friends with their enemies friends (US Saudi relations). They tried promoting "friendly" relations with the US for some time, that effort was aggravated by their nuclear stuff and Israel. I think Russia is really their only choice, since Russia is trying to protect their infra into europe, they sort of have no choice but to back Syria, and conveniently Iran has no problems killing sunnis, just as sunnis (the saudis) have no problem killing them. <shrug/>

    One thing is clear, the religious influence over that part of the world has made them a lot more receptive to manipulations...

    Even with low prices, Russia and Iran must continue to produce [oil], else they will just go bankrupt, especially with the economic advantages of free money that circulates with the western backed influences. That only to say that Iran has no choice but to accept Greek credit offerings, however much a joke they may be.

    Ironically, their acceptance of Greek promises is one of the things that keeps the financial systems house of cards standing upright. Not the only thing, certainly not, but they are playing along with the current money game.
    What do you think about TOTAL, France's oil company? Specifically FRANCE freaked out about "fracking" so we are told, which would also have made them a formidable producer of LOW COST natural gas to ALL of EUROPE..

    Instead with France bowing out of fracking (fracking is so simple to do right, it is mindblowing, btw)... Russia is left selling gas, and the rest of EUROPE is saying YES MASSAH !! (bows deeply and Putty rides his horses bare-back.. snicker..)

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    Oil and Gas News Journal Editor picked up on the discussion and has said this: (thanks Nick for paying attention to Forum dialogues)

    I want to thank Nick at Oil and Gas News, the Washington Editor for picking up on the Forum postings VWD my friend.

    Here is what Nick is saying about this:

    Russia’s general economy is withstanding depressed global crude oil prices now despite its heavy reliance on crude exports because the government adopted different financial policies in 2008, a Yale University International Security Studies official told a Washington, DC, audience.

    “The economy has held up surprisingly well when you consider the stresses on it” that include Western sanctions preventing banks and oil companies from issuing debt and imposing bans on high-tech oil equipment purchases, said Christopher Miller, Associate Director of the Brady-Johnson Grand Strategy Program at Yale ISS.

    “The reason is that government policies since 2008 have been relatively effective,” he said in a Feb. 18 presentation at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

    Miller said that Russia’s heavy economic dependence on oil and gas was a rational response to the country’s resources of those fuels being so substantial. The government’s decision to raise oil and gas taxes gradually to 15% by 2014 allowed it to reduce levies on other industries, he indicated.

    More significantly, however, the government also decided to let the ruble move to a floating exchange rate, making its value relative to other currencies fall but not making it necessary to spend financial reserves, Miller said. Doing so helped save the national budget in 2015, he maintained.

    This was not easy because Russia is paid in US dollars for its oil and gas, but the government pays for services in rubles. “The object was to get more rubles per barrel and thousand cubic feet,” Miller said. “It worked.”

    But hard policy choices lie ahead for Russia’s government, he continued, with three possible options:
    • Not change much, and hope global crude prices increase soon. Miller said that Russia’s reserve fund should last to 2017, and the government can issue debt to fill a deficit. “It’s not looking at an immediate fiscal crunch,” he said.

    • Increase efficiency and institute reforms in state-owned businesses, including Rosneft and Gazprom. “Trying to cut down on corruption and waste would be politically challenging,” said Miller, noting that several significant national businesses are corrupt and controlled by oligarchs who don’t want to relinquish their power.

    • Adopt austerity measure, probably by letting the ruble fall further against other international currencies. Miller said the government probably will choose this option, but could face problems because the resulting inflation would erode the real value of government pensions.

    “One question government policymakers probably are asking is whether Russians will remember the gross domestic product’s growth since 2008 or the reduction in pension values when they show up at ballot boxes,” Miller suggested.

    Unless global crude prices increases and new sources of investment are found, the regime led by Vladimir I. Putin, who is popular personally, could face problems with the voters, he warned.

    “Oil prices will increase eventually, but that looks unlikely before the 2018 elections,” he said.

    Miller largely discounted the idea that Russia could work with Saudi Arabia and other Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to limit crude exports and push global prices upward. “This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of such a possible deal,” he said.

    “Russia has signed earlier agreements, but then refused to cut production, which could make OPEC members wary,” Miller observed. “OPEC is a diverse group of countries already and has trouble reaching export limit agreements on its own.”

    Miller said that from the Russian government’s perspective, managing the ruble’s exchange rate for more favorable long-term results matters more than helping increase global crude prices. “If they return to $50/bbl, it would be happy,” he said. “But if they started to drift toward $25/bbl, there would be problems. That hasn’t happened yet.”
    Thank you for that Nick -

    The points though, Nick, is Hydrocarbon markets will go for the lower prices, whomever is selling at the lower costs, such as what IRAN can offer, and Russia cannot offer gas (or oil) at lower prices than Iran can. Do you think that oil sales will be paid at TOP dollar or go for the lower rates? Iran can sell at lower rates, Russia cannot.. Iran has been able to make do at extreme hardship under the sanctions.. Of course I would expect Putin and Russia SS to get the kid in North Korea (the 'supreme leader') another nuke warhead off an old Russian Missile and tell them to duplicate it and orbit it as a "earth monitoring satellite".. (Putin, you have to get more creative.. lame my friend lame..)

    Partial continuation of last post - Nick if the oil and gas industry would call out Russia for what it is, and move off it, the world would be a better place.

    Let's move to this though - (link) OPEC is a pawn, setup to be stewards of an energy economy, which when they get out of line, end up being gracefully 'corrected' - on the other hand, Putin and Russia have a problem... attitude.. Attitude gets one a specific outcome, how soon it happens and with what finesse varies.

    Dealing with energy manipulation and world economies (based on trade-able commodities, necessary for survival, not "luxury" items)

    The vast shale gas reserves in the separatist-held Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions are an important element not to be overlooked when analysing the Ukraine crisis, writes Szilvia Batkov.

    While the Russian energy giant keeps complaining about its deteriorating supply security through Ukraine and fights a debt repayment battle with its neighbour’s new government, in reality the armed turmoil in the breakaway regions is helping Moscow in a way that hardly anyone would expect: shale gas.

    At first this statement does not make much sense, since shale gas is mainly America’s focus. However, by taking a deeper look it turns out that Ukraine – one of the few European countries that has not banned fracking – is presumed to have Europe’s third-largest shale gas reserves at 1.2 trillion cubic metres.

    In addition, if we put the map of the conflict on the one of Ukraine’s shale gas fields, the Donetsk region is an obvious overlap. Besides sitting on an allegedly huge deposit of shale gas known as Yuzivska, perhaps not surprisingly, it is also the hotbed of the fiercest fighting between the government’s armed forces and pro-Russian separatists.

    Yuzivska is believed to contain up to four trillion cubic meters of shale gas, according to the Ukrainian government. To tap this, energy giant Shell signed a production sharing agreement in January 2013, opening way for a potential $10 billion investment in the field. In an optimistic scenario before the armed conflict, Yuzivska alone was supposed to produce up to 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually (bcm/y) by 2030, which equals Ukraine’s 2011 overall gas output.

    It is not hard to see why this would be a quite a scary scenario for Moscow. An energy independent Ukraine, let alone if it decides to export its gas to Europe, would mean enormous losses for Gazprom.

    So what better way is there to scare away a profit-oriented energy company from a project, than putting its potential investment into danger by an armed conflict? Could it be that Russia’s desire to stifle in the bud the shale gas production in Ukraine as an alternative to Russian gas is one of the main causes of Moscow’s help of the separatists?

    Foreign Policy reported in June 2014 that the Russian president and his inner circle have been covertly backing European movements that demonise fracking, in order to maintain the Russian stranglehold on European gas imports. FP notes that strong environmental opposition to fracking is present in countries like Bulgaria and Ukraine, which are heavily dependent on Russia for energy supplies.

    According to Russia’s TASS, the residents of Slavyansk, which is the centre of the Yuzivska deposit, organised several protests against development of the deposit. They even planned to have a referendum on the issue.

    Another TASS report even allegedly cited Pavel Gubarev, the self-proclaimed leader of pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk, admitting in an interview with Russian television Rossiya 24 on 19 May that one of the key reasons for the fighting is Kyiv’s push to “continue development of shale gas on the territory of Ukraine”.

    If this is indeed the case, Russia managed to accomplish its mission – at least for now. Both Shell and Chevron decided to freeze and pull out from their shale projects in the region.

    Before the civil war, Ukraine had agreements with the energy giants to explore and tap its shale gas fields in hope to reduce the country’s heavy dependency on Russian gas imports. In the Donetsk Region Shell had a 50-year profit sharing deal with the government of Ukraine to explore and drill for natural gas in shale rock formations.

    US energy giant Chevron also signed a similar deal for $10 billion, but it was focusing on developing shale gas reserves in the West of Ukraine. However, one year into the Russia-backed conflict, both decided to freeze or postpone their shale-exploring activities in Ukraine. Probably also driven by the low gas prices, the profit-oriented energy giants simply shied away from their shale projects in the conflict-ridden country, citing the lack of security for their investments and worsening extraction prospects as their main reasons.

    According to Unconventional Gas Information Project expert Mykola Shlapak, it was indeed the fighting that scared Shell away from the Yuzivska project. “In the geographical sense there are two major regions with unconventional gas production potential. One of them is located in the east of Ukraine and is partially on the territories currently not controlled by the Ukrainian government, where the armed conflict is taking place.

    “The second oil and gas region is located in the west of the country, close to the Ukrainian western border. In terms of unconventional gas potential – according to some national estimates – I would say that about 60-70% of the reserves are located in the east of the country – in the Donetsk-Dnipro basin, as it is called. In other words, the major areas of unconventional oil and gas potential are located close to the war zone in the east and, specifically, the Yuzivska licence area, which Shell had planned to develop, is located in that region. That was to reason Shell decided to postpone the work on the project, and to declare force majeure”, he said in an interview.

    At first, the withdrawal of Shell and Exxon seemed to be strictly Ukraine’s problem. However, if we zoom out and look at Europe’s energy map, the case is quite different. Besides Russia, the future of Ukraine’s shale gas -if confirmed- could be of enormous importance for both the European Union and the US. In addition to its own independence, Ukraine also had ambitious plans to become an exporter of shale gas to Europe – with the active contribution of the America and its business interests.

    Eduard Stavytskiy, then Ukrainian energy and coal industry minister, said in April 2013 that with the help of shale gas and Crimean offshore gas projects, Ukraine could start exports of gas to Europe in four to five years and to become a net energy exporter by 2020. As we know, by now, both of these areas are not under Kyiv’s control anymore.

    “The question of Ukraine is a question of EU’s future, EU’s safety, and a correction of EU’s energy policy. We will not be able to efficiently fend off potential aggressive steps by Russia in the future, if so many European countries are dependent on Russian gas deliveries or wade into such dependence,” the then Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk said back in 2012.

    Indeed, Gazprom accounted for 39% of the European Union’s natural gas imports in 2013 and the union’s dependency is still a big problem for Brussels, especially in the light of its cooling relations with Moscow. As such the union is busy seeking diversification. It even asked US President Obama for increased shale gas imports.

    It is hard to miss the massive American interest in Europe’s desire to cut dependency of Russia and simultaneously Ukraine’s promising shale gas prospects. Besides the obvious profit-oriented business interests of American companies in tapping the shale gas of Ukraine, as usually, politics and strategic foreign political interests are also at play in the war for Ukraine’s new gas potential.

    The EU and the US are currently negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership (TTIP), which, if agreed, could be very advantageous for the multinational fracking lobby. When President Obama attended an EU-US summit in Brussels in 2014 to discuss the Ukraine crisis, he said the new trans-Atlantic trade agreement would make it easier for his administration to approve American LNG exports to the EU.

    However, as long as TTIP is not signed and with significant problems in Poland, Ukraine seems to be the only way for the US shale gas lobby to set its feet in CEE. Vice President Joe Biden announced that the United States would bring in technical experts to speed up Ukraine’s shale gas development.

    In fact, the Biden family was so interested in Ukraine, that his son Hunter was appointed to the board of directors of Ukraine’s largest private gas producer, Burisma Holdings. This has put Ukraine’s shale gas question into a new perspective – at least from the American viewpoint.

    Burisma holds licenses covering the Dnieper-Donets basin in the eastern Ukraine and Biden Jr. is not the only American with political ties to have recently joined the company’s board. Devon Archer, a former senior advisor to current Secretary of State John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign and a college roommate of Kerry’s stepson, signed up with Burisma in April 2014.

    “Kyiv is fighting in Ukraine’s east for the gas reserves. Germany says the reserves make 5,578 bcm. [the US reserves are 8,976 bcm]. Control will be from the US,” Russian State Duma’s international affairs committee head Aleksey Pushkov tweeted in August 2014.

    If the explorations indeed confirm Ukraine’s estimated shale reserves, these would become a significant danger to Russia’s monopoly over the multi-billion euros gas supplies to Europe. By continuing its officially denied support of the separatists in keeping Ukraine’s shale gas untapped, Moscow has also averted another crisis; American shale gas interests setting foot right at its doorsteps at the Ukrainian border and the European gas markets.

    In Russia’s silent shale gas victory in Ukraine, the Russian-backed rebels fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions ensured that at least for the near future, Ukraine’s shale gas potential will not be able to challenge Gazprom’s gas monopoly in the region.

    The price manipulation Nick is clear. Putin's days are numbered. How they go down, specifically Vlad.. will be interesting to watch.
    Last edited by Bob, 19th February 2016 at 21:08.

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    Oh I am sick of these oligarchs warring tactics and constant games over Mother Earths resources............this is the reason we need Free Energy implemented by the masses.............there are those in the know and some how we must find a way to get passed the concept that there is an authority or hierarchy we must accept!! Oil/Gas/Coal all deadly to our planet and civilization, in all ways ......the amount of deaths and blood spilled as a result is abominable to say the least!!!!

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    Quote Originally posted by Bob View Post
    And I wonder just how is Greece able to BUY the Iranian hydrocarbon products (promise to pay you tuesday for a hamburger delivered today).
    Sounds like how the European and American economies work as well, and have been working for decades.

    The US and its allies may as well have been neutered as far as their forecful tactics in the Middle East go lately. The Pentagon no longer seems to be cooperating with the traditional cabal running the show, and has been pulling strategically positioned forces out of Turkey (ground-air missiles that would have been able to strike Russian planes), the Persian Gulf (aircraft carriers), etc. All of this pretty obviously to allow Russia to actually go in and destroy ISIS for real, instead of just pretending to, since we all know that ISIS is a CIA creation and part of a long series of illegal government overthrows sponsored by that agency.

    Economics are rigged in the west and have been for a long time. They can print money based on nothing, the Federal Reserve doesn't even publish how much money it prints anymore (so nobody even knows how much is it circulation), and on top of that banks can just plug numbers into a computer, leverage out several times more money than they are actually able to back up, and that's not even getting into this "hedge fund" business. It is a house of cards.

    Material items that are of value, that can be traded directly, like oil, gold, and other natural resources, are going to determine who has the strength moving forward, because nations like China are eventually going to stop taking IOU's.

    The only reason the US has been able to use monopoly money IOU's to go trillions of dollars into debt is because they've had the barrel of a gun behind it, both an economic gun through the rigged western markets that Europe contributes to, and literal guns, as Saddam or Gaddhafi would know. That situation is changing. Syria has been a total failure for the cabal. They couldn't convince the American people to intervene directly and now the CIA's band of thugs isn't able to cut the mustard against the Russians either, and there is no way in hell the American people are going to want to fight the Russians over Syria. The Cold War is over.

    When Russia announced it was going to reciprocate the sanctions that Canada had passed, I remember reading Canadian comments on a mainstream news site, and well over half of them were cheering Russia on it and condemning Harper for being a tool of the elite. We have come a long way from dehumanizing the Russian people as we once did. Though they still have human rights issues as far as I'm concerned, in terms of free speech and some other things (that I believe are probably just checks against any more internal foreign intervention anyway), at least the government of Russia and Putin in particular isn't afraid of speaking the truth when it comes to international issues like ISIS in Syria and the meddling nature of the US government on the other side of the world. Western media is still too gagged to admit to the fact that the US is directly responsible for ISIS, whether anyone wants to believe that the CIA trains and funds them directly or not. John McCain already admitted that the CIA trains, funds and supplies "moderate rebels," which Putin rightfully asserts do not exist. The only organization that would topple the Assad regime would be a radical Islamic one.


    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbZDyr2LkdI


    Cut to 1:30 for an example of what I mean.

    His words:

    "Another threat that President Obama mentioned was ISIS. Well who on earth armed them? Who armed the Syrians that were fighting with Assad? Who created the necessary political/information climate that facilitated this situation? Who pushed for the delivery of arms to the area? Do you really not understand who is fighting in Syria? They are mercenaries, mostly. Do you understand they are paid money? Mercenaries fight for whichever side pays more. So they fight, they have the arms, you can't get them to return the weapons of course, at the end. Then they discover elsewhere pays a little more. So they go fight there. Then they occupy the oil fields, wherever, in Iraq, in Syria. They start extracting the oil, and this oil is purchased by somebody. Where are the sanctions on the parties purchasing this oil? Do you believe that the US does not know who is buying it? Is it not their allies that are buying oil from ISIS? Do you not think that the US has the power to influence their allies? Or is the point that they indeed do not wish to influence them? Then why bomb ISIS?"

    "In areas where they started extracting oil and paying mercenaries more, in those areas, the rebels from "civilized" ["moderate"] Syrian opposition forces immediately joined ISIS, because they are paid more. I consider this absolutely unprofessional politics. It is not grounded on facts, in the real world."

    Of course Putin surely realizes that this whole situation is not an accident but just one more example of the CIA trying to topple a government, just as they did in Middle and South American nations and elsewhere, probably since at least the 1950's. This is a criminal organization that does not represent the so-called "democracy" and "freedom" that the US says it is bringing to the world, and deserves a Nuremburg trial of its own when everything is said and done with.


    I think it's embarrassing and a good example of how low-level the thinking done in these criminal circles in the US and Europe is, that they thought they could put sanctions and other pressure on Russia when Europe depends heavily on Russian oil to make it through the winter, and had already sanctioned Iran. That is some brilliant foreign relations isn't it? A large number of eastern Europeans might have frozen to death, only to retaliate against a natural Russian response to another CIA-led coup in Ukraine. Now maybe they realize what a stupid decision it was and are trying to remedy the mess they created for themselves.
    Last edited by bsbray, 20th February 2016 at 18:03.

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