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Thread: Atlantic Ocean Mega-Tsunami Alert - Volcano on La Palma is about to blow

  1. #31
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    Could perhaps roast some marshmallow there.


    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FOqKHN9wN8

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    According to what I've just read, the mega-tsunami theory is highly contested, and the reports seem to indicate that...


    • If the volcano does collapse, it'll be in fragments. It's not high enough yet to be so unstable that it would collapse as a whole. It is estimated that it would take another 10'000 years before the volcano gets high enough to have thin and fragile walls.

    • The fault line is not deep enough to create a landslide.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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  5. #33
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    According to what I've just read, the mega-tsunami theory is highly contested, and the reports seem to indicate that...


    • If the volcano does collapse, it'll be in fragments. It's not high enough yet to be so unstable that it would collapse as a whole. It is estimated that it would take another 10'000 years before the volcano gets high enough to have thin and fragile walls.

    • The fault line is not deep enough to create a landslide.
    Yes, I've read that report too.

    To me it looks like one of those "debunking" pieces that the establishment routinely pops out whenever they want to allay fears or avoid a panic.

    It doesn't address any of the more serious concerns, such as the deep fissures and cracks that have already formed (not reported anywhere in the media, except by citizens on the spot), or the potential for the eruption and related seismic activity to get much-much worse over the coming weeks. It also doesn't address the fact that the slab slated to slide into the Atlantic is made of impermeable volcanic rock and the layer below it is porous, so when steam is created by the lava as it flows into the old lava tubes now filled with water, the whole edifice can become unstable and slide into the ocean in one big plop.

    That is the real danger here, though I admit there is no proof that it will happen during this eruption, it may be centuries until we have to deal with the consequences. Or, it might happen tomorrow. The point is to be aware of the danger and be prepared for the eventuality, so when it does happen, you aren't caught off guard.

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    At least El Pais, the leading Spanish daily, is honest about the dangers presented by this volcanic eruption, in stark contrast to local leaders who are still worrying about tourist dollars rather than the epic danger that threatens the islands' population with extinction. They even suggested tourists might want to go there to see the Volcano in person. Some people are still clueless how dangerous this eruption really is and the scary thing is, they are in charge...

    https://english.elpais.com/science-t...-la-palma.html

    From ash to acid rain: Seven dangers of the volcanic eruption in La Palma

    Spain’s National Geographic Institute outlines several risks including toxic gases and lava flows, which have already swallowed up houses, infrastructure and crops on the Canary Island

    Juan Acosta Rodríguez, a local of Las Indias neighborhood in La Palma, was the only official victim of the eruption at Teneguía on October 26, 1971 – the last one in the Canary Island before a new volcano erupted on Sunday. He died from inhaling toxic gases in the area of Los Percheles. It is suspected that this was also linked to the cause of death of photographer Heriberto Felipe Hernández, from Santa Cruz de La Palma, who died in hospital with poisoning symptoms after going to the affected area on several excursions. Both were victims of one of the main dangers identified by Spain’s National Geographic Institute (IGN) following a volcanic eruption: lava flows, ash, pyroclastic flow, gas emission, lahars, landslides and tsunamis.


    1. Lava flows. This is the magma that has reached the surface during a volcanic eruption and flows effusively away from the vent. The more viscous it is, the less distance the flow will travel, but the thicker it will be. If it is more fluid, the lava flow, being less thick, can cover great expanses. Speaking about the eruption in La Palma, Mariano Hernández Zapata, the president of the island council, explained: “A lava flow measuring six meters tall is literally eating up the houses, infrastructure and crops that it is finding on its path toward the coast in the valley of Aridane.” So far, more than a hundred homes have been swallowed up by the lava flows in the wake of the eruption in La Palma, which began on Sunday. Scientists studying the situation estimate that the lava flow will enter the sea from the coast of Tazacorte, possibly from Playa Nuevo beach in Los Guirres.

    2. Ash. The Canary Islands Volcano Emergency Plan (Pevolca) has warned that ash being spewed out from the volcano in the Cabeza de Vaca area of Cumbre Vieja national park could cause “injuries to respiratory airways, eyes and open injuries as well as skin irritation.” For this reason, Pevolca recommends against exposure to ash. According to the IGN, “during an explosive eruption, a mix of gases and pyroclasts [solid fragments of volcanic material] is released into the atmosphere.” “Molten bombs” are larger fragments that are ejected like bullets from the center of emission, but have less reach, of just a few kilometers. The rest of the particles are lifted up by volcanic gases and create a cloud, which can become a convective plume stretching tens of kilometers. When the density of gases and particles is the same as the surrounding atmosphere, it begins to “rain” ash, which is dispersed by the wind and turbulence, and can cover enormous areas, spanning up to thousands of square meters and reaching meters in depth. With respect to the volcano on La Palma, “if a more intense explosive phase is generated, the ash could reach a larger area and affect, for example, the airport. But we have to wait to see its progress,” explains Joan Martí, a volcanologist and head of the Geosciences Barcelona group at Spain’s national research center CSIC.

    3. Pyroclastic flow. If the plume created by an explosive eruption does not have enough energy or is less dense than the surrounding atmosphere, a collapse happens, creating dense flows that mix high-temperature gases and solid particles (up to 700ºC), and travel at very high speeds (up to 550 kilometers per hour). When these flows are more diluted, their movement is more turbulent and they are called pyroclastic waves. Both types are called pyroclastic flows.

    4. Gas emanation. The volcano in La Palma has emitted between 6,000 and 9,000 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) a day, according to the preliminary calculations from the Canary Volcanology Institute (Involcan). The gases that are initially dissolved in magma separate from the magma during the eruption and are released into the atmosphere at high temperatures and speeds. As well as being violently ejected, the gases can also escape from small fissures or vents in the volcano’s edifice and in the surrounding area. This happens more or less continuously, creating what is known as fumaroles. Some gases, such as carbon dioxide, can escape by diffusion through the earth in large areas around the volcano edifice and create a cloud that moves just a few centimeters above the ground, depending on the topography, until it is dispersed in the atmosphere.

    Gases ejected into the atmosphere can cause acid rain when they meet with condensation or the beginning of rainfall. The gases can trigger headaches, vomiting, choking and skin and eye irritation, as well as damage crops and metal structures. These emissions, which can reach hundreds of kilometers, can also cause air and water pollution. The Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute (IPMA), believes that ash, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide from the volcano in La Palma could reach the Portuguese island of Madeira, “although the forecast impact for this region does not correspond to a critical situation,” they say.

    5. Lahars or mudflow. The IGN also lists lahars as a danger following an eruption. This is a flow of volcanic material, particularly ash, that is mobilized by rain, the melting of ice and snow and the collapse of land. It behaves similarly to a flood, it is channeled down ravines, taking with it all in its path, which increases its destructive power. Lahars can happen during an eruption, or months afterwards following torrential rain, according to the IGN, meaning the danger will persist long after the eruption in La Palma has ceased.

    6. Landslides. The fall of hard and soft material from the volcano edifice can create an unstable structure, leading part of the edifice to collapse. Water or the entry of large volumes of molten rock could cause a landslide.

    7. Tsunamis. A tsunami, a giant surge of water, could be triggered by a landslide in the volcano edifice, mass pyroclastic flows or an underwater eruption. These waves can reach meters in height and grow to dozens or even hundreds of meters from the shore.

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  9. #35
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    Pyroclastic flows scare me. And Lahores.

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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    Pyroclastic flows scare me. And Lahores.
    Yes, in the case of Mt St Helens that was the scariest part. It happened days after the initial eruption, if I recall.

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    When my son went to college in Tacoma, Washington I told him to be sure to have a plan.

    We flew by Mt. Rainer. It's stunning. It dwarfs all the peaks around it.

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    I don't personally discount the possibility of a tsunami because we live in strange times where very unlikely events are happening all around us. Having said that, here are some perspectives about a potential tsunami.



    This study from 2006 determined that the risk of tsunami wasn't immediate. It will take maybe another 10K years according to those researchers.

    The researchers calculate that the surest way to cause a landslide is to wait for at least another 10,000 years. The Cumbre Vieja volcano steadily grows and this causes the flanks of the volcano to become steeper and less stable. ‘A combination of substantial vertical growth and eruption forces will most probably act to trigger failure. To reach substantial growth, a time span in the order of 10,000 years will be required’, Van Berlo states.

    At a glance, La Palma doesn’t look very solid even today. It has lost chunks of its flanks at least twice in prehistoric times already. And during the last eruption, in 1949, a two kilometer long rip appeared at the top of Cumbre Vieja’s southwestern flank. But the Delft researchers point out that the cut is nothing more than the result of an innocent, shallow phenomenon, for example local adaptive settlements of the volcano. What’s more, the ancient collapses are good evidence La Palma is stable now: the collapses only occurred when La Palma was much higher than today, at least 2,000 and 2,500-3,000 meter respectively.
    from phys.org


    Geology Hub doesn't see a tsunami as being likely either.


    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZskrJZzRX0


    "....two recent flows, one in 1480 and one in 1949."
    Last edited by Dreamtimer, 21st September 2021 at 13:27.

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    Regarding the studies cited earlier, none of them take into account the incredible destructive power of nature and the unpredictability of such events.

    This Volcano is a beast and to me, it seems the island is actually being slowly torn apart by this eruption, even though you can only see the initial signs of it. Residents are now reporting fissures and cracks in the capital, which is nowhere near the site of the eruption. This thing is just getting started and every day, there are new, even stronger seismic events.

    Anybody still on the island is frankly an idiot, they should take the first opportunity to leave. If I were in charge, I'd immediately start evacuating the entire population to the mainland, or at least as far as Tenerife and move them to higher ground.

    Cue to local politicians who are still clueless and claiming this will increase tourist arrivals. This, whilst their island is being slowly torn apart by seismic forces.

    The potential here is for a natural disaster far worse than Krakatoa, though very similar in nature.

    Thankfully my sister and her family are back home safely, I just picked them up from the airport. None too soon, because things are about to get ugly on the Canary Islands...

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    Krakatoa was what I was thinking about. Let's hope not. We've already got several nasty dynamics underway. The last thing we need is another element to create a 'perfect storm'.

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    I'm hopeful, that we will avoid the worst case scenario (this time around) and this will turn out to be a natural disaster of local concern, rather than a more widespread one. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.

    For the locals on La Palma, the outlook is bleak. Authorities are still downplaying the danger and talking about rebuilding the communities destroyed by the lava flows using EU funds. What a genius idea. When will people learn that building on an active volcano, that erupts every few decades is a bad idea.

    I rewatched the mediocre, but instructive disaster movie Dante's Peak last night. What struck me as the most noteworthy was the attitude of the local authorities and even government experts. They would risk the death of thousands and wait until the very last moment to evacuate, rather than do the right thing and get people out of harm's way early.

    From local reports, it seems the whole island is very unstable seismologically at the moment and new craters spewing out lava pop up every few hours (there are now 10). There are also photos and reports of major cracks and fissures forming dozens of miles from the volcano eruption site. It seems to me that the island is just not a safe place to be right now, there is potential for this to get much-much worse.

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    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    I'm hopeful, that we will avoid the worst case scenario (this time around) and this will turn out to be a natural disaster of local concern, rather than a more widespread one. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.

    For the locals on La Palma, the outlook is bleak. Authorities are still downplaying the danger and talking about rebuilding the communities destroyed by the lava flows using EU funds. What a genius idea. When will people learn that building on an active volcano, that erupts every few decades is a bad idea.

    I rewatched the mediocre, but instructive disaster movie Dante's Peak last night. What struck me as the most noteworthy was the attitude of the local authorities and even government experts. They would risk the death of thousands and wait until the very last moment to evacuate, rather than do the right thing and get people out of harm's way early.

    From local reports, it seems the whole island is very unstable seismologically at the moment and new craters spewing out lava pop up every few hours (there are now 10). There are also photos and reports of major cracks and fissures forming dozens of miles from the volcano eruption site. It seems to me that the island is just not a safe place to be right now, there is potential for this to get much-much worse.
    I don't think they're treating this too lightly, Chris. According to my information, already 5'000 people have been evacuated off the island ─ evacuations are still ongoing as we speak ─ and the reports indicate an expectation that the eruption will continue for at least three more months.

    Of course, whether it is wise to seek residence in the vicinity of a periodically active volcano is another thing. One would presume that Pompeii had given humanity a clear warning sign. But then again, "humanity" and "wisdom" don't quite fit in the same sentence together either.

    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    I don't think they're treating this too lightly, Chris. According to my information, already 5'000 people have been evacuated off the island ─ evacuations are still ongoing as we speak ─ and the reports indicate an expectation that the eruption will continue for at least three more months.
    Actually those 5000 people were evacuated within the island, to the unaffected northern section from the southern tip, where this eruption is currently taking place.

    Of course, whether it is wise to seek residence in the vicinity of a periodically active volcano is another thing. One would presume that Pompeii had given humanity a clear warning sign. But then again, "humanity" and "wisdom" don't quite fit in the same sentence together either.

    The attraction is clear in terms of this being the Canary Islands. Perfect year-round weather, natural beauty and an otherwise safe and peaceful environment.

    But this is down to the local government, they should really not be issuing permits to build on an active volcano. However, Spanish authorities are famously corrupt and inept.

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    People build in dangerous areas regularly. Coastal areas are the biggest example. Hurricanes, floods and more but they just rebuild. That's kinda how we are.

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    We're only a few days in, but things are getting far-far worse on La Palma. It is finally dawning on the local authorities that this isn't some game or a fetching tourist attraction. From the report below, I'd bet a Mt St Helens type scenario, with a lateral explosion that blows up most of the mountain, is a very real possibility. All flights have now been cancelled in and out of the island, so authorities might have missed their window to evacuate the population. The Mega-Tsunami risk still hasn't dissipated either, which you can tell from all the "debunking" videos and articles that are popping up everywhere. This isn't some fringe theory guys, it was proposed some of the foremost experts in the field and the science behind it remains as sound as ever. Be Aware and Be Prepared if you are anywhere near the danger zone.


    https://english.elpais.com/spain/202...celations.html

    Volcanic activity increases on La Palma, prompting new evacuations and flight cancelations

    Fire crews have had to withdraw from the neighborhood of Todoque due to increased pyroclastic material and ash being expelled. The Cabinet will declare the area a disaster zone next week

    Activity at the new volcano that erupted on Sunday on the Canary Island of La Palma greatly increased on Friday afternoon, prompting the authorities to evacuate more nearby municipalities and cancel flights. A series of explosions have been heard throughout the day, while more pyroclastic material and ash was being spewed out from the Cumbre Vieja area. What’s more, a new vent has opened up, from which lava is flowing.

    Around a thousand people have had to be evacuated from the areas of Tajuya (644 inhabitants) and Tacande de Abajo (319), as well as the part of Tacande de Arriba that had not already been cleared of residents (385).

    Meanwhile, airlines Iberia, Binter and Canaryfly have had to suspend all of their flights to and from La Palma, which is part of Spain’s Canary Islands, located off the northwestern coast of Africa.

    The firefighters in the neighborhood of Todoque had to withdraw from the area due to the increasing amount of pyroclastic material and ash that was falling in the area.

    The explosions had become much more frequent by Friday evening and were audible in all areas of the municipalities of El Paso, where the volcano is located, and Los Llanos de Aridane, which is the most-populated area of the island.

    The Civil Guard also evacuated the area three kilometers from the volcano where the National Geographic Institute had set up its operation center, clearing the area of onlookers and journalists who were broadcasting from the spot, located next to La Sagrada Familia church.

    Sidewalk cafés in El Paso were left deserted as members of the public sought shelter inside and followed developments on the television. They were also fleeing from the ever-increasing ash, the continuous passing of emergency vehicles, and the impact of the shockwaves from the explosions, which are rattling the windows of buildings throughout the municipality. All of this was taking place under the dark skies caused by the smoke from the eruption.

    The regional premier of the Canary Islands government, Ángel Víctor Torres, announced on Friday that a first round of financial aid, worth €13 million, would be released for those affected by the volcano, lava from which has completely destroyed hundreds of homes and other properties. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez also announced today that the Cabinet would next week designate the island as a disaster zone.

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