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Thread: World War Three

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    Super Moderator Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    Just got done listening to this latest interview of Oliver Stone, by Lex Fridman. I always find him a very interesting man. Agree with him or not he does his homework like few others.

    Lex is a very interesting fellow in his own right, and he knows how to ask some very good questions:
    Lex Fridman is a Russian-American computer scientist, artificial intelligence researcher, and podcast host working and teaching at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
    The unexamined life is not worth living.

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    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    Not to toot my own horn, but I've noticed that people like Oliver Stone and Chris Hedges who share the same birthday with me tend to be very smart and investigative people. I always liked Stone because he was digging deep, but I was wondering how he really was feeling about Putin because he has been so against American imperialism.

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    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Fred Steeves View Post
    Lex is a very interesting fellow in his own right, and he knows how to ask some very good questions:

    I watched that and I didn't find myself disagreeing much with Stone. I think he gets the big picture quite well, it's not black and white. There are many shades of grey. As you said, Lex is a good interviewer, I am not aware of his background. I have looked at some of his other interviews too, he has very interesting guests. I think I prefer his style over Joe Rogan, not that I would have really listened to Joe much after he left Youtube. Oliver had some good points about having dialogue between two parties.


    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0raJ1-1BJ7s
    Last edited by Wind, 29th May 2022 at 21:35.

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    I wonder if there is any truth to this.


    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDIumAIs2ts

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    One thing I've been watching for awhile is the way Putin walks. He has always swung his right arm with his left arm held motionless at his side. Hitler was known to develop a very strange gait as the war continued and he descended ever further into madness. Mental illness can cause bodily tics, etc, but he has had what I consider a strange gait for years.

    Restless Leg Syndrome could produce the foot movements that he displayed.

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    Super Moderator Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    There's an ongoing dichotomy going on here in the States that is quite something. Or maybe it's just me. At the same time that half of this country and their leadership are running around with hair on fire about the clear and present dangers of America's right wing (which are justified to be clear), they're also turning the biggest blind eye of all time to the Nazi problem in Ukraine. Interesting what we choose to investigate down to infinitesimal detail, and what we choose to pretend is not even there.

    I'm just sayin. A spade is a spade, except when it's conveniently not a spade any more, 2+2 always = 4, except when the answer needs to be 5. Or in this case maybe even zero...

    In case there's any question, Jacobin is not exactly a far right publication:

    This whitewashing of Azov is part of a wider trend of playing down the influence of the entire Ukrainian far right. Even the Anti-Defamation League is now assuring people that the far right is “a very marginal group with no political influence and who don’t attack Jews or Jewish institutions in Ukraine.”

    This attempt to suddenly cast concerns about Ukraine’s far right as some kind of fringe, Putinist propaganda sits awkwardly with years of mainstream press reporting and establishment warnings about its threat.

    A 2019 report from the Soufan Center, a nonprofit founded by former FBI special agent Ali Soufan that focuses on terrorism and foreign policy, declared Ukraine was “emerging as a hub in the broader network of transnational white supremacy extremism,” with the civil war raging in the east since 2014 attracting thousands of such extremists from across the globe to use the country “as a battlefield laboratory.” Like 1980s Afghanistan for jihadists, the report stated, “so too are parts of Ukraine becoming a safe haven for an array of white supremacy extremist groups to congregate, train, and radicalize,” whose goals are to “return to their countries of origin (or third-party countries) to wreak havoc and use acts of violence as a means of recruiting new members to their cause.”


    The following year, Soufan cowrote an op-ed for the New York Times with Representative Max Rose (D-NY), warning that “white supremacists today are organizing in a similar fashion to jihadist terrorist organizations, like Al Qaeda, in the 1980s and 1990s,” and “using the conflict in Ukraine as a laboratory and training ground.” The two pointed to a 2018 FBI affidavit that called the Azov Regiment a “paramilitary unit” known for its “association with neo-Nazi ideology” and complained that even then, they were being accused of being part of a Kremlin campaign for raising these points.
    https://jacobin.com/2022/04/ukraine-...-western-media
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    Quote Originally posted by Fred Steeves View Post
    There's an ongoing dichotomy going on here in the States that is quite something. Or maybe it's just me. At the same time that half of this country and their leadership are running around with hair on fire about the clear and present dangers of America's right wing (which are justified to be clear), they're also turning the biggest blind eye of all time to the Nazi problem in Ukraine. Interesting what we choose to investigate down to infinitesimal detail, and what we choose to pretend is not even there.
    But then again, the USA has persistently been supporting fascist dictators and terrorists — and even training them — all over the world ever since the end of World War II, and is still openly supporting unmistakable far-right regimes today, such as the state of Israel and Saudi Arabia, regardless of who was in the White House and which party was in control of the House and/or the Senate.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    Super Moderator Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    But then again, the USA has persistently been supporting fascist dictators and terrorists — and even training them — all over the world ever since the end of World War II, and is still openly supporting unmistakable far-right regimes today, such as the state of Israel and Saudi Arabia, regardless of who was in the White House and which party was in control of the House and/or the Senate.
    That was my "and one more thing" to Mrs. Steeves last evening after watching the latest segment from the Jan. 6 Committee. Many of these people wearing their moral outrage at far right wingers trying to overturn an election on their sleeves as a badge of honor, and continued virtue signaling about the sacred right of the people to determine their own government, are the same ones where rubbing stamping coups, military action and crippling sanctions on other people around the world, is just another day at the office.

    But I reckon it's different when it happens to you, then suddenly that shit's not so cool any more. But there's a silver lining, the events of Jan. 6 also presented them with a third bite at the apple to once and for all finish off their political foe, and they're gonna make the most of it while presenting themselves pure as the wind driven snow.



    Getting more back to topic, here's something rather interesting from one of our biggest progressive politicians here.

    In 2018 he was quite concerned with US shipped weapons to Ukraine falling into the hands of Nazis:

    A little-noticed provision in the 2,232-page government spending bill passed last week bans U.S. arms from going to a controversial ultranationalist militia in Ukraine that has openly accepted neo-Nazis into its ranks.

    House-passed spending bills for the past three years have included a ban on U.S. aid to Ukraine from going to the Azov Battalion, but the provision was stripped out before final passage each year.

    This year, though, the $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill signed into law last week stipulates that “none of the funds made available by this act may be used to provide arms, training or other assistance to the Azov Battalion.”

    “White supremacy and neo-Nazism are unacceptable and have no place in our world,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), an outspoken critic of providing lethal aid to Ukraine, said in a statement to The Hill on Tuesday. “I am very pleased that the recently passed omnibus prevents the U.S. from providing arms and training assistance to the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion fighting in Ukraine.”
    https://khanna.house.gov/media/in-th...nked-neo-nazis



    And this year? What Nazis? Just get those weapons in there and get them there quick, who cares who's actually getting them!

    Congressman Ro Khanna (CA-17) assured Ukraine's Consul General based in San Francisco that he's working with colleagues on the House Armed Services Committee to prioritize sending weapons and military aircraft to Ukraine.

    "We have to get more weapons, in my view, into the hands of Ukrainians," Khanna said at his Santa Clara office Monday.

    The Congressman and Dmytro Kushneruk, Ukraine's Consul General in San Francisco, addressed media following a closed-door meeting.

    Weapons can't come soon enough. A Russian airstrike on a military base along Ukraine's border with Poland Sunday killed dozens and destroyed many weapons meant for Ukraine. Ina Tweet Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the attack.
    https://www.ktvu.com/news/congressma...id-for-ukraine

    Seems Nazis are kind of like Al Qaida and ISIS these days. They're the bad guys and we give it our all to beat them back, but when we need their services, weapons just seem to float down upon them from the heavens. But then again there's no Nazis in Ukraine anyway so no need to worry, because if there were, we'd hear about it on the news.

    These are only "the moderate rebels", as John McCain used to refer to the people we were arming in Syria.
    The unexamined life is not worth living.

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    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    Paralysis in Moscow

    Why Putin persists with his established strategy, accepting a test of endurance.

    I will do such things- What they are yet, I know not; but they shall be
    The terrors of the earth!

    - King Lear, Act 2, Scene 4.

    Vladimir Putin seeks to convey an indomitable will. Here is a man who has set his course and will stick to it, whatever the obstacles in his way and the costs of overcoming them. It is an image that serves him well. It is now widely assumed in the West that he will not back down in the war with Ukraine and, if things go badly, he will lash out. Such a man must not be provoked. Yet the image is starting to fray at the edges. Behind all the braggadocio his power is slowly eroding. The symptoms of this are to be found not in a readiness to compromise on the war, which remains absent, but instead in a policy paralysis, pressing on with his established strategy because he can think of nothing better to do.

    Putin’s St Petersburg Speech

    A good place to start is with the speech he delivered last week, coming in at over 70 minutes, at the annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum. This is intended as an alternative Davos. Putin’s audience was not as substantial as in previous years, with representatives of the Taliban helping making up the numbers. The theme of his address was that, despite facing an American-led ‘economic blitzkrieg’, Russia would emerge even stronger as the rest of the world suffers from inflation and recession. He described in great detail the measures being taken to protect the economy against this onslaught which would ensure self-sufficiency. ‘We are strong people’, he insisted, ‘and can cope with any challenge. Like our ancestors, we will solve any problem, the entire thousand-year history of our country speaks of this.’ He presented the current conflict as being essentially about Russia standing up to American arrogance - they ‘think of themselves as exceptional. And if they think they're exceptional, that means everyone else is second class’. This is a theme which provides common ground with China. President Xi sent his own video message along similar lines.

    Putin’s assertions of invincible Russian strength were undermined by his speech being delayed for an hour by a disruptive cyberattack, demonstrating that this supposedly favoured Russian instrument of modern conflict can be used against it in an embarrassing way. Although he boasted about how well the economy will weather the storm, even official forecasts see the economy contracting this year by some 8 percent and unofficial estimates go as high as 15 percent. One reason why Russia’s economic position is not worse is because of the boost to revenues resulting from the huge rise in oil and gas prices, yet Putin is currently seeking to add to the pressure on the West by cutting gas supplies to EU countries. He will fight the economic war by demonstrating to Europeans that siding with the US will mean that they are committing ‘economic suicide’. At the moment, if there is a punitive option available he is anxious to take it.

    With regards to the huge issue of the effects on world food supplies of the blockade of the Black Sea, and the real prospect of famine in many countries, Putin again deflected the blame to US and EU sanctions against Russian fertilizer and grain exports, and the obstacles put in the way of Russian efforts to send exports to those in direst need. Another perspective was provided in one of the more telling interventions in the forum. Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state controlled RT media organisation, who specialises in blood-curdling threats and in making Russians feel cheerful about their prospects by warning how bad it is going to be for everybody else, presented famine as a Russian weapon in the economic war: ‘The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us.’

    On the war itself Putin promised that Russia would meet its goals fully: ‘freedom for the Donbas’. As if ignorant of the cruel realities of the war, and the devastation being inflicted on Ukrainian towns and cities, he urged that: ‘ We must not turn those cities and towns that we liberate into a semblance of Stalingrad. This is a natural thing that our military thinks about when organising hostilities.’ Those who urge a peace deal got little comfort from Putin. The Kremlin line is now firmly that Ukraine will have to live with new borders: those areas under Russian occupation are being prepared for annexation.

    The only possible concession came when Putin stated that he had no objection to Ukraine joining the EU, because the EU ‘isn't a military organization.’ This admission is one of those moments equivalent to an alternative ending to Hamlet, when the old King returns from an overseas trip to reveal that the tragedy that has just unfolded was based on an unfortunate misunderstanding. This whole sorry business began in the summer of 2013 when Putin put the Russophile President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, under intense economic pressure, including cutbacks in energy supplies, to prevent him signing an association agreement with the EU. This pressure succeeded and the agreement was not signed, but the effect was to trigger the Euromaidan movement which eventually led to Yanukovych fleeing the country, Putin annexing Crimea and encouraging the separatist movement in the Donbas.

    The admission shows that Putin realises that he must pick his fights carefully. He can’t do much for now about the EU opening negotiations with Ukraine so best not to try. For a similar reason the Kremlin dismissed the moves by Finland and Sweden to join NATO as being irrelevant, despite previous lurid warnings of the terrible fate awaiting those countries should they take such a step (and the assumption by some Western geopoliticians that NATO enlargement is all Putin really cares about). This is another development he can’t do much about and so is inclined to let pass.

    Which may be just as well because the challenges keep on coming. One of the most intriguing moments at the forum came when Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the only head of state to join Putin onstage, made it clear that his country would not recognize the ‘quasi-governments’ in the Donbas, as well as those in South Ossetia or Abkhazia (in Georgia) or for that matter Taiwan. ‘If the right to self-determination is to be realized everywhere on the planet, then instead of 193 governments on Earth, there will be 500 or 600 …. Of course, it will be chaos.’ This was not what the audience – or Putin – expected to hear.

    This led to the normal warnings that because Kazakhstan has a large Russian-speaking population Russia was bound to take an interest, and if it started to be unfriendly Russia could get very interested indeed. Simonyan’s husband and fellow propagandist, Tigran Keosayan, had, even before the forum, complained about Kazakhstan’s ‘ingratitude’, after it cancelled a Victory Day parade on 9 May, and suggested that Tokayev ‘look carefully at what is happening in Ukraine.’ (The reference to ingratitude was to the brief Russian-led intervention last January to help put down civil unrest). Elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, Moldova and Georgia are exploring their own links with the EU (with Georgia’s population apparently more enthusiastic than its government), while Belarus, which is now stuck in an unequal alliance with Russia, has avoided committing forces to the war.

    As Tom McTague noted in an essay reflecting on his recent travels in Kyrgyzstan, it is only in Russia that there is any nostalgia for the old Soviet Union, and Putin has not found a way to develop a positive appeal. ‘The question for Russia’, he asked, ‘is, right now, what does it have to attract its former colonies beyond history? It is not rich enough, advanced enough, or ideologically compelling enough. Nor does it show the kind of love that suggests it would preside over a happy family.' Who looks at Belarus or Crimea let alone the Donbas and thinks there is something there to emulate? Hence the Kremlin’s dependence upon coercion and control. Putin only knows the way of the bully. When an individual, or a state, or any other entity, starts on a path that he doesn’t like all he can do is threaten and if his threats lack credibility than he has to let it pass.

    Lithuania and Kaliningrad

    This can be seen with the latest flash point in Russia’s conflict with the West. The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, home to some 430,000 people, is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. This was formerly the German Konigsberg, captured by Soviet forces right at the end of World War Two and valued by Moscow for its Baltic port. Because it is home to Russia’s Baltic Fleet it is territory of strategic importance. Its position became exposed when Poland and Lithuania joined NATO. This vulnerability has now been underlined as the Lithuanian government has blocked deliveries of coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology through its territory by means of both rail and road. This move is in line with, and does not go beyond, EU sanctions, does not stop the movement of passengers and unsanctioned goods, and does not preclude Russia supplying Kaliningrad by sea.

    Dmitry Peskov – the Kremlin spokesman who has spent a lot of his recent career warning other states about one thing or another - has reported that Russia is preparing ‘retaliatory measures’. Putin’s close buddy and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has vowed that these measures, yet to be determined, 'will have a serious negative impact on the Lithuanian population.' It’s not clear what options are available. Not a lot of Lithuanian goods travel through Russia these days while the option to cut off gas supplies is negated by the fact that Lithuania stopped taking Russian gas in April, having had the foresight after 2015, when nearly all of its gas supplies were imported from Russia, to have built an off-shore LNG import terminal in the port city of Klaipeda. So Moscow is short of available economic forms of coercion. The move has been described on Russian TV as tantamount to a declaration of war, but retaliatory military action against a NATO country would be a bold and dangerous step to take simply because of the implementation of sanctions which Moscow insists in general are really no big deal.

    Paralysis in Moscow

    All this fits in with the gradual erosion of Putin’s authority in Russia along the lines recently outlined by Titania Stanovaya. Russian elites are struggling to come to terms with a war that Putin began without consultation and which he does not know how to end on favourable terms. He is unwilling to take the even greater risks required to secure a military victory (assuming that these could succeed) yet unable to accept anything that would look like a defeat. Because no one amongst the elite has a clue how to escape this conundrum or, even if they did, has the political courage and opportunity to move against Putin, the odds of him being overthrown in a coup are low. Instead there is paralysis as internal divisions grow along with the consequential problems caused by the war. Putin, she notes, ‘has created a situation for which he was not prepared and which he doesn’t know how to deal with, while the Russian power system that he himself built is constructed in such a way as to prevent effective decisions from being made collectively and in a balanced way.’

    This paralysis is reflected in the conduct of the war. Russian tactics and strategy remain inflexible and predictable. Having identified Severodonetsk as a vital objective, just as Mariupol was before, failure cannot be contemplated, and so all available firepower and manpower has been hurled at it to break the Ukrainian resistance and then prevent the defenders retreating. This has come at a heavy cost for Ukraine and questions have been asked in Kyiv about the wisdom of committing so much of its own military capability to the defence of a city that has acquired strategic relevance only because it seems to matter so much to Moscow. Yet, the Ukrainian military insist, the effort has been worthwhile: Russian forces have suffered the greater attrition; this defence has delayed advances elsewhere, as Ukraine waits for – and now starts to receive – much needed Western weaponry; and it has diverted Russian capabilities from places where Ukraine is now able to start moving on to the offensive. Evidence of this offensive is seen in Ukrainian advances in the Kherson area.

    A Test of Endurance

    From the start of this crisis Russia has acted to demonstrate its strength and show why it deserves to be treated at all times like a great power. But its power is limited and Russia is now facing the possibility that it really has bitten off more than it can chew. None of this means an early end to the war. Nor does it mean that things will get easier for Ukraine. Putin’s default strategy is always to inflict pain even if he can achieve little else. The risk of more reckless action cannot be precluded. Nonetheless we should not assume that Russia is inexhaustible or, just because we cannot pick a winner in the battle at the moment, that the war is destined for a prolonged stalemate.

    The political paralysis affects Russia’s military strategy. Putin is unwilling to accept defeat and see what he can extract by way of concessions for an offer to withdraw. Nor does he want to mobilise all of Russian society for the war effort, so the limits on troop numbers will remain, and will affect operations more as those that are lost cannot be replaced and Russian advantages in firepower begin to be eroded. He can propose a cease-fire to allow him to hold the territory already taken but he knows that will be rejected by President Zelensky unless it is accompanied by a promise of withdrawal.

    His best hope, in pressing on with his current strategy, is that at some point, preferably quite soon, Ukraine’s Western supporters will tire of the war and its economic costs and urge Kyiv to accept some territorial compromise. Here his problem is that there is also paralysis of a different sort on the Western side. The economic costs are high, but they have already been incurred. The commitment to Ukraine, and to ensuring that Russia does not win its war of conquest, has been made. So long as Ukraine continues to fight, and suffer the costs, then even leaders who think a compromise might at some point be necessary are holding their tongues. The West is settling in for the long haul, looking for ways to keep Ukraine supplied with the weapons and ammunition it needs, while adjusting foreign policies to be able to concentrate on the war. The fight can be presented as a conflict between democracy and autocracy. But at its core it is also now about the future of the European security order, and if that means improving relations with autocracies, whether in urging the Saudis to pump more oil or keeping relations with China calm, then so be it.

    Which means that the most salient test of endurance is still on the field of battle. When Russia began to suffer setbacks, after the initial offensive in February, the Ministry of Defence moved smartly to recast the operation as being solely about the Donbas. The problems the Russian military have faced over the last couple of months have not so much resulted from Ukrainian counter-offensives as the meagre territorial gains they have achieved for such an enormous effort. If it is the case that the Ukrainian armed forces are beginning to increase the tempo of their offensive operations then Russian commanders will face a new set of challenges. It may be that their troops will be as tenacious in defence as their Ukrainian counterparts, even as they take heavy blows, but it is as likely that they will not do so with the same conviction. Problems of morale and disaffection may begin to tell. From the start of this war its most important feature has been the asymmetry of motivation. In the end the Ukrainians are fighting because they have no other choice. Russians have the option of going home.

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