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Thread: World War Three

  1. #631
    Senior Member Lord Sidious's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Chuckie View Post
    The main point is that the only source in the world that I've seen that supports Ukraine as a fascist Nazi country is Putinia.
    You didn't look too hard then, did you?
    Ní siocháin go saoirse

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  3. #632
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Lord Sidious View Post
    You didn't look too hard then, did you?
    no, not really ... . I'm very intuitive ... I sense truth and falsity with ease ... All I have to do is put up my electrical fingers and the energy as knowledge flows through to my bwain. The force is with me.
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  5. #633
    Senior Member Lord Sidious's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Chuckie View Post
    no, not really ... . I'm very intuitive ... I sense truth and falsity with ease ... All I have to do is put up my electrical fingers and the energy as knowledge flows through to my bwain. The force is with me.
    Da......................nyet
    Ní siocháin go saoirse

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  7. #634
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    The U.S. government is getting very nervous about the situation. It seems some of them remember the Cuban Missile Crisis only too well. Incidentally, I have lifelong friends that I met in elementary school from Cuba ... no anti-Cuban bias in me. I was very happy when Obama tried to normalize relations with them. But it got stomped on. I'll let you all guess by who.
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  9. #635
    Senior Member Lord Sidious's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Chuckie View Post
    But it got stomped on. I'll let you all guess by who.
    You mumma?
    Ní siocháin go saoirse

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  11. #636
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Lord Sidious View Post
    You mumma?
    no, but she woulda if she coulda...
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  13. #637
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    Some good news on the war front.
    It seems Ukraine and Russia are ready to hold serious peace talks at the highest level, involving Putin and Zelenskiy, to be held in neutral territory, possibly in Jerusalem, or perhaps Turkey.
    This war has gone very badly for Russia, they suffered major losses and the weaknesses of their army and especially their potemkin air force have been laid bare. Everyone, including Western Analysts were taken by surprise regarding the archaic and inefficient nature of Russia's armed forces and nobody expected Ukraine to hold out for this long.
    Russia wasn't even able to establish air superiority over Ukrainian air space and Russian equipment is just not working at the most fundamental level. It really is quite embarrassing for Putin.
    On the economic front, Russia suffered a major blow, which will be long-lasting and has barely even started. Europe will now do everything in its power to wean itself off Russian gas and oil and to rearm in a way not seen since the 1930s.

    I can only guess, but I expect the peace agreement will involve Ukraine accepting the status quo before the war broke out, recognising Crimea and the Donbass republics as independent, or indeed to be annexed by Russia, and giving up its ambitions to join NATO.

    In return, Ukraine will be free to pursue EU membership, which is a much bigger prize, truth be told and Russian troops will have to withdraw to pre-invasion positions. The West will probably agree to remove some of the most crippling sanctions against Russia, but not all of them, Russia will be permanently isolated on the international stage and treated as a pariah. I suspect Putin is not long for this world and will be removed at the first opportunity. He may even end up in the Hague eventually, like Milosevic before him.

    Turns out Russia is just a very big, nuclear-armed Serbia with oil and gas. It is very, very far from being a serious, modern country, let alone a superpower. It will probably end up orbiting China and becoming a client state of sorts, serving Chinese economic and political interests.

    That is how things are looking now, but of course the situation can always change. A siege of Kyiv is still being prepared, though it has stalled somewhat. I think there is a real chance for peace here, so fingers crossed.

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    I agree with you, Chris. Looting the treasury to the point of looting the military doesn't make for a good war machine. Putin wanted to regain old glory, imo, and he has failed. He likely surrounded himself with yes men rather than those who knew the reality on the ground. And he has inadvertently united the west to a degree unforeseen.

    Oh, those unintended consequences.

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  17. #639
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    I agree with you, Chris. Looting the treasury to the point of looting the military doesn't make for a good war machine. Putin wanted to regain old glory, imo, and he has failed. He likely surrounded himself with yes men rather than those who knew the reality on the ground. And he has inadvertently united the west to a degree unforeseen.

    Oh, those unintended consequences.
    This could be pivotal, Putinia is asking for help from China ... let's see how this plays out ...
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  19. #640
    Senior Member Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    I like the Spirit of this one. Note the difference in life force between her, and the repeater:

    Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URTrP1xHpQA


    The details:
    LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - An anti-war protester interrupted a live news bulletin on Russia's state TV Channel One on Monday, holding up a sign behind the studio presenter and shouting slogans denouncing the war in Ukraine.

    The sign, in English and Russian, read: "NO WAR. Stop the war. Don't believe propaganda. They are lying to you here." Another phrase, which looked like "Russians against war", was partly obscured.

    The extraordinary act of dissent took place on day 19 of the war which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it calls a special military operation. read more
    "Stop the war. No to war," the woman protester could be heard shouting, as the news anchor continued to read from her teleprompter.

    The protester could be seen and heard for several seconds before the channel switched to a different report to remove her from the screen.

    "Wow, that girl is cool," Kira Yarmysh, spokeswoman for jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, wrote on Twitter.

    She posted a video of the incident, which quickly racked up more than 2.6 million views.

    State TV is the main source of news for many millions of Russians, and closely follows the Kremlin line that Russia was forced to act in Ukraine to demilitarise and "denazify" the country, and to defend Russian-speakers there against "genocide". Ukraine and most of the world have condemned that as a false pretext for an invasion of a democratic country.

    The woman was named by OVD-Info, an independent protest-monitoring group, and by the head of the Agora human rights group, as Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of the channel.

    Pavel Chikov, head of Agora, said she had been arrested and taken to a Moscow police station. Tass news agency said she may face charges under a law against discrediting the armed forces, citing a law enforcement source.

    The law, passed on March 4, makes public actions aimed at discrediting Russia's army illegal and bans the spread of fake news or the "public dissemination of deliberately false information about the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation". The offence carries a jail term of up to 15 years.

    In a video recorded before the incident and posted online, a woman who appeared to be Ovsyannikova described herself as a Channel One employee and said she was ashamed to have worked for years spreading Kremlin propaganda. She said her father was Ukrainian, and her mother Russian.

    "What is happening now in Ukraine is a crime, and Russia is the aggressor country. The responsibility for that aggression lies on the conscience of only one man, and that man is Vladimir Putin," she said.

    "Now the whole world has turned away from us and the next 10 generations of our descendants will not wash away the shame of this fratricidal war," she said.

    She urged Russians to go out and demonstrate.

    Authorities have broken up anti-war protests. According to OVD-Info, which monitors protests and provides legal assistance to those detained, a total of 14,911 people have been arrested.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ow-2022-03-14/
    The unexamined life is not worth living.

    Socrates

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  21. #641
    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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  23. #642
    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    Some interesting points I recently came across, they could be correct or not. Once again only time will tell.

    "At this point it’s possible Putin just wants to “punish” the Ukrainians by physically destroying as much of their country as he can, hence the recent shift in targets to infrastructure and civilians.

    There’s some indication that the Russians are readying for a massive attack on Kyiv in an attempt to seize it and obtain a propaganda victory. Putin is prideful, and it’s unlikely that he will call off the invasion until he gets something that he can present to the Russian people as “having achieved operational success.”

    Short of that, it’s possible Putin may try to freeze the conflict, much like what happened in Luhansk and Donetsk in 2015. In theory, Russia has the manpower to sustain more casualties than Ukraine, though it looks like the Russians are having a hard time replacing casualties. What remains to be seen is whether or not Ukraine can make use of this pause on offensives and counterattack to take back territory."
    "The worst thing possible would be freezing the conflict, Putin is pure amoral realpolitik type, “ceasefire” or “humanitarian corridor” or “treaty” means absolutely nothing. If he has to false flag to break it and have deniability when there’s a good time to strike he will.

    If the conflict freezes people will gradually forget about Ukraine and the news cycle will move on.

    We’ll see occasional kind of high brow academic articles about how Putin is shifting their economy to be more insulated against any further economic action.

    And Putin will make sure to gobble up as much of Ukraine as possible and destroy as much infrastructure as possible and at worst just park troops there and if they try in any way to take any city back he will claim its Ukrainian aggression.

    There’s nothing he won’t do.

    It wouldn’t be past him to rapidly try and reposition and solve his logistics issues, tighten the screws in Russia and insulate the economy then use “active measures” stage a bombing of the nuclear plant, or use chemical weapons or bomb his own troops then blame Ukraine and renew the attack.

    I seriously hope we keep Ukraine at the forefront and keep layering on sanctions and giving support unless ALL Russian troops have left all of mainland Ukraine. That or Putin somehow not being office and blank slate negotiations for full withdrawal and reparations.

    If the conflict is frozen and Putin can get a propaganda victory e.g “mission accomplished we annihilated all the azov nazis in Mariupol” and he also creates a land bridge for Crimea.

    I hope we don’t see all the business interests and political leaders that created dependence on Russia slink back and start reversing policy for short term convenience.

    I know these are much more capable people and I hope we can never forget the lesson we learned.

    I agree that Putin is definitely punishing them and trying to destroy Ukraine as much as possible. It’s sick.

    And so many Russians have family there, it shows his extreme irrationality."
    There could be a peace treaty like this too, but right now it seems quite unlikely.

    A demilitarized buffer that agrees to never join a western alliance, Ukraine to recognize Crimea and the separatist states as part of Russia, the land bridge, and whatever other economical benefits he’ll get.
    That would of course still mean that Russia stays as a sinking totalitarian state with a dictator who has now ruined the lives of not only many Ukrainians, but also Russians. Also here in Europe we are already seeing huge rises in gasoline and food prices. Every single action always causes ripples. Ultimately I don't know where it will lead to, but I hope that eventually it all turns out well. Whenever that may be.

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  25. #643
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    Peace talks are progressing nicely, despite the ongoing fighting.

    Ukraine has officially accepted that it won't be joining NATO, as has NATO itself. Russia is demanding neutrality from Ukraine, along the Finnish or Austrian model, which Ukraine seems ready to accept.

    The more difficult sticking points will be territorial, e.g. which occupied territories will Russia be able to keep for itself. They're probably insisting on keeping the Donbass, Crimea, and a Southern corridor along the Azov coast, all the way to Crimea. That would mean Ukraine losing all its Azov sea ports, including currently besieged Mariupol, which would be a major blow for the future of Ukraine. If they can hold out for long enough, they might be able to keep their biggest port, Odessa, though Russia seems to be preparing an amphibious landing from Crimea to take it. Russian nationalists would like to take the whole of "Novorossiya", which is the Southern and Eastern part of Ukraine, heavily Russian-speaking and strategic, leaving the Central and Western parts to the Ukrainians, which would make it a much diminished, landlocked country.

    This would be a very hard pill for Ukrainians to swallow, but it's hard to see what other choice they have.

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  27. #644
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Wind View Post
    Some interesting points I recently came across, they could be correct or not. Once again only time will tell.





    There could be a peace treaty like this too, but right now it seems quite unlikely.



    That would of course still mean that Russia stays as a sinking totalitarian state with a dictator who has now ruined the lives of not only many Ukrainians, but also Russians. Also here in Europe we are already seeing huge rises in gasoline and food prices. Every single action always causes ripples. Ultimately I don't know where it will lead to, but I hope that eventually it all turns out well. Whenever that may be.
    Hedges ... What is his point? It is more profitable for all societies to engage in peaceful economics. Putin wants war ... What happens next?

    Nukes or not, that is the only question.

    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    Peace talks are progressing nicely, despite the ongoing fighting.

    Ukraine has officially accepted that it won't be joining NATO, as has NATO itself. Russia is demanding neutrality from Ukraine, along the Finnish or Austrian model, which Ukraine seems ready to accept.

    The more difficult sticking points will be territorial, e.g. which occupied territories will Russia be able to keep for itself. They're probably insisting on keeping the Donbass, Crimea, and a Southern corridor along the Azov coast, all the way to Crimea. That would mean Ukraine losing all its Azov sea ports, including currently besieged Mariupol, which would be a major blow for the future of Ukraine. If they can hold out for long enough, they might be able to keep their biggest port, Odessa, though Russia seems to be preparing an amphibious landing from Crimea to take it. Russian nationalists would like to take the whole of "Novorossiya", which is the Southern and Eastern part of Ukraine, heavily Russian-speaking and strategic, leaving the Central and Western parts to the Ukrainians, which would make it a much diminished, landlocked country.

    This would be a very hard pill for Ukrainians to swallow, but it's hard to see what other choice they have.
    I'm not happy with this... Putinia wins, that should be unacceptable for the world... It's like sanctioning ongoing conflict. It's a step back a century in social and global consciousness. That's the definition of the dark side.
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  29. #645
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    Quote Originally posted by Chuckie View Post
    I'm not happy with this... Putinia wins, that should be unacceptable for the world... It's like sanctioning ongoing conflict. It's a step back a century in social and global consciousness. That's the definition of the dark side.
    Might makes right.

    Russia might be an economic minnow and its conventional forces are in pretty rough shape, but it still has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world by some margin and an advantage in hypersonic missiles.

    There is nothing anyone can do about Russia carving out a big chunk of Ukraine. Sure, we can hurt them with sanctions, but their nuclear arsenal means we cannot fight them in a conventional war, without risking total annihilation. Not gonna happen.

    Sanctions can put some pressure on Russia, but not while China has their back.

    Ukrainian forces aren't going to take back the territories held by Russian forces, they don't have the offensive capabilities. Most of their weapons, even NATO-supplied ones are defensive in nature.

    So then, it becomes a negotiation between hostage and hostage taker. The hostage will pretty much have to accept any and all conditions laid out by the aggressor. That, or continue the fight pointlessly for years or decades, without any real hope of victory. Ukraine will want to normalise and rebuild its economy, which it can only do if it signs a peace treaty with Russia and makes significant concessions. At the very least, they'll have to let go of Crimea and the Donbass, but a lot will depend on the advances Russian troops make in the next two weeks.

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