World War Three

[Wind]

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF0IuCGO6Yc

[Chris]

As much as I have my criticisms of Putin, we should not forget that it was the USA ─ first under the G.W. Bush administration and then under the Obama administration ─ that set this whole thing in motion by recruiting former East Block countries such as Poland into NATO, then using said countries for rattling the Russian cage by putting up missile defense systems in those newly recruited countries, and then by supporting ─ even if only covertly, by way of mercenaries ─ the neo-Nazi factions in Ukraine.

Putin's reaction to this is therefore a strategic one, and while I think it is perfectly possible and even very likely that he'll be invading Ukraine, I don't think he's out for a full-on war against NATO. That would cost Russia very dearly. At the same time, Biden also knows that the toll would be equally high on NATO's side of the fence, so he's not looking for a full-on war with Russia either. But it is still very likely that some battles are going to erupt, at the cost of many civilian lives, primarily in the Ukrainian region. And things are probably going to get even worse once the mercenaries get involved ─ and they will; you can count on that.

My perspective as a Hungarian is this:

When Russian troops left Hungary in 1991, (our current PM Viktor Orbán, then a young liberal, was the first to demand their withdrawal, rather bravely), we could hardly wait to join NATO, nobody had to recruit us, I can assure you. All Eastern states joined NATO precisely because they wanted protection from Russia, whilst it was too weak to object. BTW, Putin's belligerence and threats are having the opposite effect that he intended, now even formerly neutral Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO and Spain has just announced they are sending warships to the Baltic to counter Russian threats.

Another thing, as regards the vague Western promise not to expand NATO eastwards, that was made to the Soviet Union, a country that ceased to exist in 1991. Russia was merely one member state of the SU and erstwhile members are perfectly within their rights to apply for NATO membership if they so wish.

Clearly, Putin is now on the warpath, trying to recreate the erstwhile Soviet Union, or rather Imperial Russia and the sphere of influence it once had. He has actually demanded that NATO withdraw from Romania and Bulgaria, which is completely bonkers.

I think he's just looking for a Casus Belli, so he can start his little invasion.

This kind of Hitlerian diplomacy does not work in the 21st century, it's going to lead to disaster. I hate overused comparisons to Hitler, but in this case it is apt, since Putin is acting exactly like Hitler did in the 1930s, trying to reclaim territories on the basis that ethnic Russians live there and they have a right to rejoin the motherland. This is going to lead to disaster, not least because Russia is an economic minnow and its conventional forces are nowhere near as strong as generally believed. The real danger in my eyes, is that this weakness could lead to him lashing out and leveraging either his alliance with China, a country with an economy ten times the size of Russia's and a much larger and better equipped armed forces, or in the worst case, using his genuine advantage in ICBMs and hypersonic missiles to destroy much of the world, a tool which Hitler did not have, despite his best efforts.

[Chuckie]

My perspective as a Hungarian is this:

When Russian troops left Hungary in 1991, (our current PM Viktor Orbán, then a young liberal, was the first to demand their withdrawal, rather bravely), we could hardly wait to join NATO, nobody had to recruit us, I can assure you. All Eastern states joined NATO precisely because they wanted protection from Russia, whilst it was too weak to object. BTW, Putin's belligerence and threats are having the opposite effect that he intended, now even formerly neutral Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO and Spain has just announced they are sending warships to the Baltic to counter Russian threats.

Another thing, as regards the vague Western promise not to expand NATO eastwards, that was made to the Soviet Union, a country that ceased to exist in 1991. Russia was merely one member state of the SU and erstwhile members are perfectly within their rights to apply for NATO membership if they so wish.

Clearly, Putin is now on the warpath, trying to recreate the erstwhile Soviet Union, or rather Imperial Russia and the sphere of influence it once had. He has actually demanded that NATO withdraw from Romania and Bulgaria, which is completely bonkers.

I think he's just looking for a Casus Belli, so he can start his little invasion.

This kind of Hitlerian diplomacy does not work in the 21st century, it's going to lead to disaster. I hate overused comparisons to Hitler, but in this case it is apt, since Putin is acting exactly like Hitler did in the 1930s, trying to reclaim territories on the basis that ethnic Russians live there and they have a right to rejoin the motherland. This is going to lead to disaster, not least because Russia is an economic minnow and its conventional forces are nowhere near as strong as generally believed. The real danger in my eyes, is that this weakness could lead to him lashing out and leveraging either his alliance with China, a country with an economy ten times the size of Russia's and a much larger and better equipped armed forces, or in the worst case, using his genuine advantage in ICBMs and hypersonic missiles to destroy much of the world, a tool which Hitler did not have, despite his best efforts.

I think the U.S. at least was more than willing to be friends and work with Russia as an ally. If for no other reason than to forestall China from going Hitleresque. Putin beat China to the punch and now we have the situation we do. Russia will never be able to trust China and China will never be able to trust Russia. Despots don't share power, they utilize human assets while they are of value. It's a historical story that never ends.

[Chris]

Things are really heating up this week.

Much of what I wrote last week was unofficial, or rumours, but almost all of it has since been officially confirmed.

Keep in mind, what I'm listing below comes from Official statements from NATO or NATO member state leaders, foreign secretaries:

- NATO has decided to move significant military assets to its Eastern Flanks, to bolster member state's defences. Particularly affected are the Baltics, Romania and Bulgaria. These include military jets, troops, weapons, warships, you name it. Most NATO countries are chipping in and sending reinforcements eastwards, including the likes of Spain and Denmark.

- A Major US armada sailing to the Aegean wasn't just a rumour, drills will start within days, ships will be in missile range of Crimea, just in case-

- Russia has moved dozens of Nuclear-capable Iskander Missiles to the Ukrainian border. A nuclear attack on Ukraine cannot be ruled out, though a conventional terror bombing, ww2 style is more likely.

- The UK foreign secretary has stated unequivocally, that China could use the distraction caused by the Ukraine crisis, to launch surprise attacks in the Pacific and the South China sea, just as I feared. As she points out, China and Russia are coordinating their every move very closely, as evidenced by their swift and effective cooperation in Kazakhstan. China is probably just waiting for the right moment to strike Taiwan and US army bases in the region, when the US is most distracted by the Ukraine crisis.

- Both the UK and the US have moved non-essential embassy personnel out of Ukraine, as has Russia. Based on that evidence, an invasion is inching closer.

- Russia has moved even more military assets into Belarus, near Kyiv. They are probably wanting to strike the capital. According to British Intelligence, a puppet government of Russian assets has already been prepared to take over and be installed in Kyiv, a typical Russian tactic, I might add.

So, that's where we are right now. Nobody knows if war will break out this week, it is only really up to Putin at this point, but all the chess pieces are already in place.

NATO will clearly not defend Ukraine, except through proxy, but will draw the line at Putin invading or harassing actual NATO members.

[Gio]

Things are really heating up this week.

Much of what I wrote last week was unofficial, or rumours, but almost all of it has since been officially confirmed.

Keep in mind, what I'm listing below comes from Official statements from NATO or NATO member state leaders, foreign secretaries:

- NATO has decided to move significant military assets to its Eastern Flanks, to bolster member state's defences. Particularly affected are the Baltics, Romania and Bulgaria. These include military jets, troops, weapons, warships, you name it. Most NATO countries are chipping in and sending reinforcements eastwards, including the likes of Spain and Denmark.

- A Major US armada sailing to the Aegean wasn't just a rumour, drills will start within days, ships will be in missile range of Crimea, just in case-

- Russia has moved dozens of Nuclear-capable Iskander Missiles to the Ukrainian border. A nuclear attack on Ukraine cannot be ruled out, though a conventional terror bombing, ww2 style is more likely.

- The UK foreign secretary has stated unequivocally, that China could use the distraction caused by the Ukraine crisis, to launch surprise attacks in the Pacific and the South China sea, just as I feared. As she points out, China and Russia are coordinating their every move very closely, as evidenced by their swift and effective cooperation in Kazakhstan. China is probably just waiting for the right moment to strike Taiwan and US army bases in the region, when the US is most distracted by the Ukraine crisis.

- Both the UK and the US have moved non-essential embassy personnel out of Ukraine, as has Russia. Based on that evidence, an invasion is inching closer.

- Russia has moved even more military assets into Belarus, near Kyiv. They are probably wanting to strike the capital. According to British Intelligence, a puppet government of Russian assets has already been prepared to take over and be installed in Kyiv, a typical Russian tactic, I might add.

So, that's where we are right now. Nobody knows if war will break out this week, it is only really up to Putin at this point, but all the chess pieces are already in place.

NATO will clearly not defend Ukraine, except through proxy, but will draw the line at Putin invading or harassing actual NATO members.

Though this assessment is quite fathomable on paper, One must wonder does both Russian & China really wish/risk plunging the entire world into an abyss of chaotic economic ruin?

While betting U.S. nuclear tactical weapons would surely be used (in defense), if the above scenario was to go down ... There would obviously be no winner (s) in these catastrophic mistake (s) .

Let cooler heads prevail !

Side note: But if President Xi's Winter Olympic games were to be cancelled for any reason -- All bets are off --- Then i will see you all on the other-side folks.


giggle

[Chuckie]

Though this assessment is quite fathomable on paper, One must wonder does both Russian & China really wish/risk plunging the entire world into an abyss of chaotic economic ruin?

While noting nuclear tactical weapons would surely be used (in defense), if the above scenario was to go down ... There would obviously be no winner (s) in these catastrophic mistake (s) .

Let cooler heads prevail !

I heard the term 'tactical' used on CNN ... didn't specify tactical what but it did sound rather ominous.

[Gio]

Though this assessment is quite fathomable on paper, One must wonder does both Russian & China really wish/risk plunging the entire world into an abyss of chaotic economic ruin?

While betting U.S. nuclear tactical weapons would surely be used (in defense), if the above scenario was to go down ... There would obviously be no winner (s) in these catastrophic mistake (s) .

Let cooler heads prevail !

Side note: But if President Xi's Winter Olympic games were to be cancelled for any reason -- All bets are off --- Then i will see you all on the other-side folks.


giggle

I heard the term 'tactical' used on CNN ... didn't specify tactical what but it did sound rather ominous.

Ominous indeed,

Yes i added U.S. defense (to clarify) this probability ...

With the current sleep (state) of the U. S. government,
I believe any attack upon a U.S. warship or interests --
Could set off an even more unpredictable response than
even when Trump was in office.

[Chris]

Though this assessment is quite fathomable on paper, One must wonder does both Russian & China really wish/risk plunging the entire world into an abyss of chaotic economic ruin?

While betting U.S. nuclear tactical weapons would surely be used (in defense), if the above scenario was to go down ... There would obviously be no winner (s) in these catastrophic mistake (s) .

Let cooler heads prevail !

Side note: But if President Xi's Winter Olympic games were to be cancelled for any reason -- All bets are off --- Then i will see you all on the other-side folks.


giggle

My understanding is that Russia and China currently have a rare advantage in terms of hypersonic missile technology, which means they could both nuclear first strike the US, without it being able to defend against it in any meaningful way.

If you think back to the Korean War, the US was pretty much the only Nuclear Power at the time and they demonstrated just a decade earlier, that they were ready and willing to use Nukes on their enemies. China was a backward agrarian power at the time, with a peasant army, yet they took on the mighty US in a fight and almost won. To the extent, that the US was ready to Nuke major Chinese cities, but cooler heads eventually prevailed.

If the communists weren't afraid of US retaliation at the time, when they had no defence against US nukes, why would they worry about it now, when they have a clear advantage if they combine their forces with Russia? Keep in mind, Xi Jinping is an old school communist in the mould of Mao and not at all like the reformist party chairmen of the previous era of opening up. China has actually regressed on many fronts and is now almost as repressive and aggressive as it was under Mao.

Russia is more rational and calculating, but also hyper-nationalistic and that can often lead to disastrous miscalculations and overestimating your strength, whilst simultaneously underestimating your enemy. Just ask Germany and Japan.

I think we are facing one of those pivotal moments in history, when another world war is a real possibility. Hopefully it won't happen or at least won't escalate that far, but the signs are ominous.

[Wind]

The last thing Sleepy Joe wants is another war to deal with. Him pulling the troops from Afghanistan was one of his few successes.

[Gio]

My understanding is that Russia and China currently have a rare advantage in terms of hypersonic missile technology, which means they could both nuclear first strike the US, without it being able to defend against it in any meaningful way.

And yes very fast indeed ...

But don't forget the U.S. Nuclear Submarine force fleet ...
These vessels act autonomous (via each Captain) ...
It was set up just for such a scenario ...

These vehicles are always within striking distance ...
What's a few minutes if your enemy can't find you.

U.S. technology is way ahead of both Russia and China.
in this field of Search and Destroy -- Take my word for it.

When a country has to brag about its new weaponry ...
It should be a sign of (vulnerability) concern?

Over forty years ago, I worked on Andros Island, Bahamas (AUTEC Base)... It was where i witnessed two USO's (Unidentified Submerged Objects) ... Though the ones i saw, emerged from the deep to quietly fly away and vanish into thin air (as if into another dimension).

Over the years i have reaffirmed this experience with another who was with me during one of the sightings - just to make sure i didn't imagine the incident.

That was a long time ago, i can't even imagine where this technology
has gone since?

PS - Note this tech is what created MRI imaging.

[Chris]

The last thing Sleepy Joe wants is another war to deal with. Him pulling the troops from Afghanistan was one of his few successes.

I'm sure he doesn't want war, but does he have a choice? Keep in mind, the US did not want to initially get involved in either world wars, at least directly, until circumstances forced them to act otherwise.

Come to think of it, neither side wanted a multi-year quagmire that cost tens of millions of lives and left Europe in ruins. They all thought the war would be over by Christmas and would be relatively painless, with a lot of glory and little in terms of costs. Oh how wrong they turned out to be. Keep in mind as well, in both cases, the losing side was the one that landed the first blow. Probably because they were trying to use violence as a tool to overcome their strategic and economic disadvantages. It didn't work then and it won't work now, but who knows what the consequences for the world will be.

And yes very fast indeed ...

But don't forget the U.S. Nuclear Submarine force fleet ...
These vessels act autonomous (via each Captain) ...
It was set up just for such a scenario ...

These vehicles are always within striking distance ...
What's a few minutes if your enemy can't find you.

U.S. technology is way ahead of both Russia and China.
in this field of Search and Destroy -- Take my word for it.

When a country has to brag about its new weaponry ...
It should be a sign of (vulnerability) concern?



That was a long time ago, i can't even imagine where this technology
has gone since?

PS - Note this tech is what created MRI imaging.

Yes, the US would be able to retaliate, but there would be little point to it by then, if most of the country is already in ruins.

In any case, this is more of a strategic deterrent, the real war (if and when it comes) will be fought with conventional forces and new technologies, such as drones, robots, and space-based weapons. We really don't know what the outcome of that will be, but I'm not sure the US is ahead technologically in this field.

[Gio]

I'm sure he doesn't want war, but does he have a choice? Keep in mind, the US did not want to initially get involved in either world wars, at least directly, until circumstances forced them to act otherwise.

Come to think of it, neither side wanted a multi-year quagmire that cost tens of millions of lives and left Europe in ruins. They all thought the war would be over by Christmas and would be relatively painless, with a lot of glory and little in terms of costs. Oh how wrong they turned out to be. Keep in mind as well, in both cases, the losing side was the one that landed the first blow. Probably because they were trying to use violence as a tool to overcome their strategic and economic disadvantages. It didn't work then and it won't work now, but who knows what the consequences for the world will be.



Yes, the US would be able to retaliate, but there would be little point to it by then, if most of the country is already in ruins.

In any case, this is more of a strategic deterrent, the real war (if and when it comes) will be fought with conventional forces and new technologies, such as drones, robots, and space-based weapons. We really don't know what the outcome of that will be, but I'm not sure the US is ahead technologically in this field.

Well, that's where i beg to differ.

Little point to that ...
Tell that to those Submarine Captains (who have sworn to obey their standing orders in such a situation).

But trying to make any logical sense of such dangerous and volatile scenarios is also of little point here as well.

[Chuckie]

The last thing Sleepy Joe wants is another war to deal with. Him pulling the troops from Afghanistan was one of his few successes.

Sleepy Joe looked pretty alert today when he called a reporter a 'stupid son-of-bitch'.

[Wind]

Sleepy Joe looked pretty alert today when he called a reporter a 'stupid son-of-bitch'.

What for? Edit: Ah, inflation.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXPKci5nFXw

[Octopus Garden]

Great thread. Thanks so much for all the well reasoned input here. I have been reading headlines about Russia and the Ukraine and noted the cost of natural gas has gone through the roof, but otherwise, have been thinking of other things. And that is precisely when military action, of one kind or another occurs - when people are distracted.

As a Westerner and someone who thinks more in geo-strategic and economic terms, it seems to me that Putin is trying to shore up his current borders as a buffer against NATO expansion. I wonder how any empires or former empires would appreciate a bitter enemy right on their doorstep?

I am no fan of right wing fascist oligarchies, which is what Russia (and China) have become, but am trying to see things from their perspective.

Putin's timing, should he decide to strike, is probably optimal. Not looking good.