World War Three

[Lord Sidious]

PeterZiehan, the geo-political strategist claims that after Spring thaw, it will be so muddy that Ukraine will lose home team advantage as its tanks will be bogged down.

Also astrologer Steve Judd says ts is going to htf, come May. He didn't elaborate but it looks like the stars are aligning in a way that favors a clusterfluck right around major mud time.

Very true.
All you need to do is look at the eastern front records from world war 2.
You will see amusing videos of tanks towing trucks through the mud...........

[Wind]

Also astrologer Steve Judd says ts is going to htf, come May. He didn't elaborate but it looks like the stars are aligning in a way that favors a clusterfluck right around major mud time.

And it's possible that such a battle will be the largest one in the European soil since WWII.

Clusterfucks and cluster bombs galore. May the good Lord have mercy on all of us.

[Octopus Garden]

Absolutely. Divine intervention in the form of alien direct interference or as a distraction, might not be such a bad thing right around that time!

[Aianawa]

Imo the new clear options soon to be deployed imaginarrily will make the biggest narrative and soft landing, nuclair option will awake wag the dog ignorers, nuclear option outcome last stage of the > we gonna die ( may as well evaluate, what be important etc ) < then the ball gets rolling, happy times.

[Emil El Zapato]

Interesting reading this through. I'm pretty familiar with the criticisms leveled at the U.S. and am in agreement with nearly all of them. Now, if you can retain those criticisms, understanding that although those fundamentals are still largely intact, they are also subject to change in a dynamic global environment.

Unfortunately there are two narratives currently fighting for dominance. One is that Russia is the bad guy and the other that Russia is practicing the best defense is offense'

I'm in the 'I just don't really know' camp, because I assume I can't know all of the variables involved for all of the reasons already mentioned on the thread.

Something I like to do, is follow macro-economic, political analysts and see what they have to say. The dude I am going to link to has obvious bias but he outlines fairly objectively what Russia is up against, though I wouldn't say he is pro-Russia. He also doesn't demonize anybody. I don't know if this is the best video of Peter Zeihan. If not Zeihan has his own channel you can take your pick of topics and several about Russia, Ukraine.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdP01go8wdQ

Russo-Japanese War, (1904–05) Conflict between Russia and Japan over territorial expansion in East Asia. After Russia leased the strategically important Port Arthur (now Lüshun, China) and expanded into Manchuria (northeastern China), it faced the increasing power of Japan. When Russia reneged on its agreement with Japan to withdraw troops from Manchuria, the Japanese fleet attacked the Russia naval squadron at Port Arthur and began a siege of the city in February 1904. Japanese land forces cut the Russian army off from coming to aid Port Arthur and pushed it back to Mukden (now Shenyang). The reinforced Russian army took the offensive in October, but poor military leadership blunted its effectiveness. After the long Japanese siege of Port Arthur, in January 1905 the corrupt Russian commander surrendered the garrison without consulting his officers, despite adequate stores and ammunition for its continued defense. Heavy fighting around Mukden ended in March 1905 with the withdrawal of Russian troops under Aleksey Kuropatkin. The decisive naval Battle of Tsushima gave the Japanese the upper hand and brought Russia to the peace table. With the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth, Russia abandoned its expansionist policy in eastern Asia and Japan gained effective control of Korea and much of Manchuria.

Interesting reading this through. I'm pretty familiar with the criticisms leveled at the U.S. and am in agreement with nearly all of them. Now, if you can retain those criticisms, understanding that although those fundamentals are still largely intact, they are also subject to change in a dynamic global environment.

Unfortunately there are two narratives currently fighting for dominance. One is that Russia is the bad guy and the other that Russia is practicing the best defense is offense'

I'm in the 'I just don't really know' camp, because I assume I can't know all of the variables involved for all of the reasons already mentioned on the thread.

Something I like to do, is follow macro-economic, political analysts and see what they have to say. The dude I am going to link to has obvious bias but he outlines fairly objectively what Russia is up against, though I wouldn't say he is pro-Russia. He also doesn't demonize anybody. I don't know if this is the best video of Peter Zeihan. If not Zeihan has his own channel you can take your pick of topics and several about Russia, Ukraine.

No one has ever mentioned Russia's demographic issues. This guy seems to really know his stuff.

[Emil El Zapato]

He brings up one thing that has lingered in my mind from the beginning of the 'coup' thing for Putin. The end result would likely be another Putin-like leader which doesn't represent much progress. It sounds as if it might take a three figure count of coups to see the light at the end of the tunnel. (The number mentioned in the video for all potential successors, all KGB/FSB, oy vey)

So far, the only complaint I would have for this video is its name. 'Jordan Harbinger'. Marketing at its best.

I just noticed that Zeihan's birth day (day) is the same as mine. Damned if he wasn't adopted also...another alien.

At least he had the good sense to disengage from Susan Eisenhower...


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Peter Henry Zeihan (/zaɪ.ən/,[1] born January 18, 1973) is an American geopolitical analyst and author.[2][3]

Early life, education, and career
Born in 1973,[4][5] Peter grew up the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa, graduating from Marshalltown High School in 1992.[6][7] In 1995, he obtained a BSc in Political Science from what then was Northeast Missouri State University, a postgraduate degree in Asian studies from University of Otago (Dunedin, New Zealand) in 1997, and another from the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce of the University of Kentucky in 1999.[8]

Discouraged by his experiences during his work at the American Embassy in Australia and at Susan Eisenhower's think tank, the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, he began working as an analyst for Austin-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor in 2000.[7][9][10] Zeihan spent 12 years at Stratfor, eventually rising to vice-president.[10]

While still at Stratfor, Zeihan coauthored his first book, A Crucible of Nations, with Lauren Goodrich in 2011. The book discusses the Caucasus region of Eastern Europe.

Zeihan left Stratfor in 2012, founding his consulting firm Zeihan on Geopolitics that same year. His client list would grow to include energy companies, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities, and other government organizations.[11]

In 2014 he released Accidental Superpower. The book was reviewed by The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Kirkus Reviews.[9][12][13] The book focused on topographical and geographical landmarks (rivers, oceans, mountains, etc.) as distinct advantages in a nation's ability to dominate others economically, industrially, and militarily. With the use of maps, Zeihan pointed out that navigable rivers, or access to the oceans, along with a reliable road or rail network make a critical difference, of which the U.S. is featured to have 12 navigable rivers, two oceans on its flanks, which are key in relying less on large land infrastructure projects.[clarification needed] These land features, in turn, "encourage small government".[9] Another three books were published afterwards including The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations (2020), and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022).

[Octopus Garden]

Russo-Japanese War, (1904–05) Conflict between Russia and Japan over territorial expansion in East Asia. After Russia leased the strategically important Port Arthur (now Lüshun, China) and expanded into Manchuria (northeastern China), it faced the increasing power of Japan. When Russia reneged on its agreement with Japan to withdraw troops from Manchuria, the Japanese fleet attacked the Russia naval squadron at Port Arthur and began a siege of the city in February 1904. Japanese land forces cut the Russian army off from coming to aid Port Arthur and pushed it back to Mukden (now Shenyang). The reinforced Russian army took the offensive in October, but poor military leadership blunted its effectiveness. After the long Japanese siege of Port Arthur, in January 1905 the corrupt Russian commander surrendered the garrison without consulting his officers, despite adequate stores and ammunition for its continued defense. Heavy fighting around Mukden ended in March 1905 with the withdrawal of Russian troops under Aleksey Kuropatkin. The decisive naval Battle of Tsushima gave the Japanese the upper hand and brought Russia to the peace table. With the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth, Russia abandoned its expansionist policy in eastern Asia and Japan gained effective control of Korea and much of Manchuria.



No one has ever mentioned Russia's demographic issues. This guy seems to really know his stuff.

For sure, Chuckie. It's a breath of fresh air to watch him. He is too much of a cheerleader for US oil interests, it seems, for me to take him completely seriously, in all his areas of expertise, but still, he is fairly objective. And yes, he does outline, if I remember correctly that Russia is facing an understandable existential threat and will do everything in its power, (as would most nations) to ensure it's own safety and reliable access to food.

Astonished at the similiarities between you and Ziehan. Same birthday and both adopted. That's kind of wild! Thank you for the paragraph on Japanese Russian relations. It's all so complicated. I remember trying to read a book about the Balkans and I nearly went mental.

The author was driving through all of these small countries, hostile to one another, and describing all of these multiple relationships between countries that shifted for one reason or another, over the course of hundreds of years (and why), as well. Reading it was like trying to figure out a rubik's cube while riding a roller coaster. I had to give up.

[Emil El Zapato]

For sure, Chuckie. It's a breath of fresh air to watch him. He is too much of a cheerleader for US oil interests, it seems, for me to take him completely seriously, in all his areas of expertise, but still, he is fairly objective. And yes, he does outline, if I remember correctly that Russia is facing an understandable existential threat and will do everything in its power, (as would most nations) to ensure it's own safety and reliable access to food.

Astonished at the similiarities between you and Ziehan. Same birthday and both adopted. That's kind of wild! Thank you for the paragraph on Japanese Russian relations. It's all so complicated. I remember trying to read a book about the Balkans and I nearly went mental.

The author was driving through all of these small countries, hostile to one another, and describing all of these multiple relationships between countries that shifted for one reason or another, over the course of hundreds of years (and why), as well. Reading it was like trying to figure out a rubik's cube while riding a roller coaster. I had to give up.

also adopted in Iowa ...

I hear you, I'm reading a book for the 3rd time right now to get all those relationships straight. You're right about the complexity.

[Tredz]

Absolutely. Divine intervention in the form of alien direct interference or as a distraction, might not be such a bad thing right around that time!

I feel very at ease with the way things are going

[Emil El Zapato]

Has anyone noticed how quiet the American politics talk around here it has been lately. A year or so ago there was a chief complainer about it. Does anyone remember who that was?

[Aragorn]

Has anyone noticed how quiet the American politics talk around here it has been lately. A year or so ago there was a chief complainer about it. Does anyone remember who that was?

Me, perhaps?

[Emil El Zapato]

Me, perhaps?

nope, you've been around...think hard now, he was always complaining about posters and posting about American politics, as if it was a topic he didn't want to be bothered with. Think hard now...his name is Fred Steeves. I recently noticed that he is a Gemini, a sign intimate with fishiness, but totally antagonistic to the 'fish' people.

[Aragorn]

Has anyone noticed how quiet the American politics talk around here it has been lately. A year or so ago there was a chief complainer about it. Does anyone remember who that was?

Me, perhaps?

nope, you've been around...think hard now, he was always complaining about posters and posting about American politics, as if it was a topic he didn't want to be bothered with. Think hard now...his name is Fred Steeves. I recently noticed that he is a Gemini, a sign intimate with fishiness, but totally antagonistic to the 'fish' people.

Fred has recently had some major surgery performed to his shoulder and is undoubtedly in a lot of pain.

I also think it is a sign of bad taste to try and antagonize other forum members — whether it's Fred or anybody else here — out of the blue without any provocation at all. Show some respect.

[Emil El Zapato]

Fred has recently had some major surgery performed to his shoulder and is undoubtedly in a lot of pain.

I also think it is a sign of bad taste to try and antagonize other forum members — whether it's Fred or anybody else here — out of the blue without any provocation at all. Show some respect.

I understand, but sometimes only a certain set of circumstances provide the context to demo a point that has a good deal of history of frustration for me.

I'm not feeling his pain, but I sympathize just the same. Ok, maybe a little bit when I think about it.

[Octopus Garden]

I am in complete sympathy with Fred's shoulder pain. I've had severe but fleeting shoulder pain and man does it hurt!