World War Three

[Chuckie]

The Plot thickens this week with NATO distracting the SCO with some Kazakh action. Looking at the details, there is little doubt that this is a Western-Engineered coup, along the lines of the various colour revolutions that happened in Ukraine and Georgia.

SCO troops (mostly from Russia) have been deployed almost immediately and they are trying to put down the revolution, which ostensibly broke out due to a rise in fuel prices. Given that Kazakhstan is one of the major energy producers in the world, with massive reserves of gas, coal, oil and uranium, this is more than a little curious. Clearly, Kazakhstan can just set energy prices on it own internal market any way they wish, like other major oil exporting countries, who will often even subsidize the price of fuel or give it away for next to nothing.

So why did they decide to raise prices, if their production is entirely domestic? It's not like they have to buy energy on the world market at spot prices, so the move makes no sense. I'm not privy to the details, but how interesting that this happened just as Russia and Belarus were poised to invade Ukraine.

Now troops and material will have to be diverted from the Ukrainian border to Kazakhstan and this may delay or even scupper Putin's plans, at least for now.

If the West manages to turn Kazakhstan into a client state, it would be a major coup for them and a serious threat to Russia and China. Kazakh energy could be exported via the Caspian and black seas all the way to Europe, cutting out Russia and China via pipelines. Georgia and Azerbaijan are already Western client states, so the stage is set for this to take place.

I suspect this particular colour revolution will fail, but the goal may only have been to distract Russia and stop the invasion of Ukraine through other means. It may turn out to be a very smart move or a very stupid one, depending on Putin's response. Interesting times.

So I guess the question would be: Is Biden sleeping?

[Chris]

So I guess the question would be: Is Biden sleeping?

He ain't called Sleepy Joe for nothin' ...

[Aragorn]

The Plot thickens this week with NATO distracting the SCO with some Kazakh action. Looking at the details, there is little doubt that this is a Western-Engineered coup, along the lines of the various colour revolutions that happened in Ukraine and Georgia.

SCO troops (mostly from Russia) have been deployed almost immediately and they are trying to put down the revolution, which ostensibly broke out due to a rise in fuel prices. Given that Kazakhstan is one of the major energy producers in the world, with massive reserves of gas, coal, oil and uranium, this is more than a little curious. Clearly, Kazakhstan can just set energy prices on it own internal market any way they wish, like other major oil exporting countries, who will often even subsidize the price of fuel or give it away for next to nothing.

So why did they decide to raise prices, if their production is entirely domestic? It's not like they have to buy energy on the world market at spot prices, so the move makes no sense.

Two words, Chris: Bitcoin mining. I'm not kidding. They've got the biggest Bitcoin mines over there ─ so big that it actually helps warming up the planet, just when we don't need that.

[Chuckie]

He ain't called Sleepy Joe for nothin' ...

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRhi8Tk9nNE

[Wind]

Two words, Chris: Bitcoin mining. I'm not kidding. They've got the biggest Bitcoin mines over there

Oh really?


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXn1mg_FOo0

[Chris]

Oh really?


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXn1mg_FOo0

That national anthem is better than a lot of real ones.

[Malisa]

If they have any hand grenades, I would say introduce em to me, I could use a new source.............

Only Rifles and RPG launchers, sorry

[Lord Sidious]

Only Rifles and RPG launchers, sorry

Oh well, I will have to settle for that then.............

[Chris]

The Kazakh colour revolution has been suppressed, with the help of Chinese troops. Now Russia and Belarus can refocus their attention West.

Troop and fleet movements have intensified in the past few days. Sweden has deployed tanks, troops and US assets on some Baltic Islands near Kaliningrad, apparently they see a real chance of a surprise attack on the Baltics, which would be almost impossible to defend against. Is Putin's plan to take the Baltics first, which would be a relative breeze, then concentrate his attention on Ukraine, which is likely to put up much more of a fight? It would seem insane since the Baltic states are in NATO and that would trigger an immediate US response, but stranger things have happened.

The NATO secretary general has warned that war breaking out in the near future is now unfortunately a near certainty.

[Chris]

War preparations are intensifying this week.

- Sweden has reported military drones over Nuclear Installation and the Royal Palace. They're suspected to be Russian spy drones.

- Britain has reportedly deployed troops to Ukraine. They have intensified the airlift of modern weaponry and training staff to combat Russia, along with the US.

- Russia has recalled most of its non-essential diplomatic staff, they left Ukraine in haste earlier today, probably in preparation for an imminent invasion.

- Gazprom has booked no gas flows for February in the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which supplies Germany and the rest of Europe through Polish territory. Expect immediate shortages and massive price hikes. The US will probably attempt to keep Europe's light on via emergency LNG shipments, but it may not be enough.

Based on all of the above, the outbreak of war may only be days away.

[Chuckie]

War preparations are intensifying this week.

- Sweden has reported military drones over Nuclear Installation and the Royal Palace. They're suspected to be Russian spy drones.

- Britain has reportedly deployed troops to Ukraine. They have intensified the airlift of modern weaponry and training staff to combat Russia, along with the US.

- Russia has recalled most of its non-essential diplomatic staff, they left Ukraine in haste earlier today, probably in preparation for an imminent invasion.

- Gazprom has booked no gas flows for February in the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which supplies Germany and the rest of Europe through Polish territory. Expect immediate shortages and massive price hikes. The US will probably attempt to keep Europe's light on via emergency LNG shipments, but it may not be enough.

Based on all of the above, the outbreak of war may only be days away.

I haven't been paying much attention but it will be interesting to see how that plays out. My money says no war. To the brink? Likely... but that is when Putin backs away. He's a wannabe emperor, but he's not crazy or stupid. Just a mutant (as the historian Harold Cantor would say)

[Chris]

I haven't been paying much attention but it will be interesting to see how that plays out. My money says no war. To the brink? Likely... but that is when Putin backs away. He's a wannabe emperor, but he's not crazy or stupid. Just a mutant (as the historian Harold Cantor would say)

I have no doubt whatsoever that Putin will attack Ukraine. Whether that escalates into a wider conflict, involving other, even NATO countries, is another matter, that is unlikely to happen just yet, but things can always get out of hand without either party really intending it. If war were to spread to the Baltics or Poland, the US would be treaty-obliged to intervene and fight a direct war with Russia, which would already qualify as another World War in my view.

[Chris]

S'more rumblings on the internet. Apparently Russia has given NATO a 48-hour Ultimatum to respond (in writing) to their demands that they provide security guarantees, such as promising that no new countries will join. Those are obviously non-starters, so we may see some action starting this weekend. Russian troops have already been removed from Kazakhstan and redeployed on the Ukrainian border, so that little distraction didn't last very long, even if a few hundred paid with their lives. The stage is set for a full-scale attack, imminently.

The US has apparently redeployed a couple dozen warships and they are steaming towards the Aegean sea. The rumour is, they will be stationed within rocket range of Crimea, but just outside the range of Russian ground-based missile defence systems. The fleet includes Amphibious Assault ships, which could theoretically enable a land-based invasion, such as the one Britain and France led against the Crimea in the 19th century. I think that scenario is very unlikely, probably just a precaution from the US Navy and a way for them to monitor the upcoming war from a safe distance, whilst providing intel to the Ukrainian side.

My guess is, NATO will not get involved in this one, unless Putin does something stupid and attacks the Baltics or Poland. If that were to happen, all bets are off.

On a side note, Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary is meeting Putin on February 1. I feel uneasy about this meeting, Putin might call in a few favours and force Orbán into an impossible situation vis-a-vis NATO and the EU. Rumours are, he has promised him a piece of Ukraine (which used to belong to Austria-Hungary, Czechoslovakia, then Hungary until 1945), called Transcarpathia, in exchange for his diplomatic support, many years ago. Whether that is still on the table, I don't know, though I very much doubt it. I expect we'll find out what's cooking pretty soon.

[Chuckie]

S'more rumblings on the internet. Apparently Russia has given NATO a 48-hour Ultimatum to respond (in writing) to their demands that they provide security guarantees, such as promising that no new countries will join. Those are obviously non-starters, so we may see some action starting this weekend. Russian troops have already been removed from Kazakhstan and redeployed on the Ukrainian border, so that little distraction didn't last very long, even if a few hundred paid with their lives. The stage is set for a full-scale attack, imminently.

The US has apparently redeployed a couple dozen warships and they are steaming towards the Aegean sea. The rumour is, they will be stationed within rocket range of Crimea, but just outside the range of Russian ground-based missile defence systems. The fleet includes Amphibious Assault ships, which could theoretically enable a land-based invasion, such as the one Britain and France led against the Crimea in the 19th century. I think that scenario is very unlikely, probably just a precaution from the US Navy and a way for them to monitor the upcoming war from a safe distance, whilst providing intel to the Ukrainian side.

My guess is, NATO will not get involved in this one, unless Putin does something stupid and attacks the Baltics or Poland. If that were to happen, all bets are off.

On a side note, Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary is meeting Putin on February 1. I feel uneasy about this meeting, Putin might call in a few favours and force Orbán into an impossible situation vis-a-vis NATO and the EU. Rumours are, he has promised him a piece of Ukraine (which used to belong to Austria-Hungary, Czechoslovakia, then Hungary until 1945), called Transcarpathia, in exchange for his diplomatic support, many years ago. Whether that is still on the table, I don't know, though I very much doubt it. I expect we'll find out what's cooking pretty soon.

hmm, that doesn't sound good Chris (Hungary involved). Out of range of Russian ground-based missiles? Is that a red flag for Russia? I can't believe that a scenario like this is even shaping up in the 21st century. I reiterate that the world was on a peace-based war theater as economics path, until the Emperor was reborn in Putin. Incidentally, this guy that likes to do theological 'research' but is not clergy stated that the last AntiChrist will be reborn from one of the historical major bad guys.

It seems he is doing this stuff for kicks, does he actually have any non-delusional security or economic threats that requires an invasion of territory that is not his (In the 21st century).

[Aragorn]

S'more rumblings on the internet. Apparently Russia has given NATO a 48-hour Ultimatum to respond (in writing) to their demands that they provide security guarantees, such as promising that no new countries will join. Those are obviously non-starters, so we may see some action starting this weekend. Russian troops have already been removed from Kazakhstan and redeployed on the Ukrainian border, so that little distraction didn't last very long, even if a few hundred paid with their lives. The stage is set for a full-scale attack, imminently.

The US has apparently redeployed a couple dozen warships and they are steaming towards the Aegean sea. The rumour is, they will be stationed within rocket range of Crimea, but just outside the range of Russian ground-based missile defence systems. The fleet includes Amphibious Assault ships, which could theoretically enable a land-based invasion, such as the one Britain and France led against the Crimea in the 19th century. I think that scenario is very unlikely, probably just a precaution from the US Navy and a way for them to monitor the upcoming war from a safe distance, whilst providing intel to the Ukrainian side.

My guess is, NATO will not get involved in this one, unless Putin does something stupid and attacks the Baltics or Poland. If that were to happen, all bets are off.

On a side note, Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary is meeting Putin on February 1. I feel uneasy about this meeting, Putin might call in a few favours and force Orbán into an impossible situation vis-a-vis NATO and the EU. Rumours are, he has promised him a piece of Ukraine (which used to belong to Austria-Hungary, Czechoslovakia, then Hungary until 1945), called Transcarpathia, in exchange for his diplomatic support, many years ago. Whether that is still on the table, I don't know, though I very much doubt it. I expect we'll find out what's cooking pretty soon.

hmm, that doesn't sound good Chris (Hungary involved). Out of range of Russian ground-based missiles? Is that a red flag for Russia? I can't believe that a scenario like this is even shaping up in the 21st century. I reiterate that the world was on a peace-based war theater as economics path, until the Emperor was reborn in Putin. Incidentally, this guy that likes to do theological 'research' but is not clergy stated that the last AntiChrist will be reborn from one of the historical major bad guys.

It seems he is doing this stuff for kicks, does he actually have any non-delusional security or economic threats that requires an invasion of territory that is not his (In the 21st century).

As much as I have my criticisms of Putin, we should not forget that it was the USA ─ first under the G.W. Bush administration and then under the Obama administration ─ that set this whole thing in motion by recruiting former East Block countries such as Poland into NATO, then using said countries for rattling the Russian cage by putting up missile defense systems in those newly recruited countries, and then by supporting ─ even if only covertly, by way of mercenaries ─ the neo-Nazi factions in Ukraine.

Putin's reaction to this is therefore a strategic one, and while I think it is perfectly possible and even very likely that he'll be invading Ukraine, I don't think he's out for a full-on war against NATO. That would cost Russia very dearly. At the same time, Biden also knows that the toll would be equally high on NATO's side of the fence, so he's not looking for a full-on war with Russia either. But it is still very likely that some battles are going to erupt, at the cost of many civilian lives, primarily in the Ukrainian region. And things are probably going to get even worse once the mercenaries get involved ─ and they will; you can count on that.