World War Three

[Chuckie]

Malisa, I don't get your interpretation of Chinese history, is this something they teach in Russian schools?

You could perhaps say that the Nationalists were western puppets, not too much of a stretch, but the communists? I don't think so.

Wind, I saw many videos from the South African guy, in my mind he is the best resource on what is actually going on in China. They worry me a lot more than Putin's Potemkin Regime.

I honestly don't think the Russian government would be crazy enough to risk a war with NATO, in some ways they are very dangerous (Missiles and Nukes), but in other ways, they are a paper tiger, with a tiny economy mostly dependent on exporting raw materials. China is much more of a threat and the Communists there truly worry me.

The way I think it is likely to play out is like this:

NATO has already made it clear that they will not defend Ukraine, neither will they give the required guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO. That gives Putin carte blanche to attack Ukraine, which I think he will early next year, once the ground is frozen and large scale operations can begin. He will probably occupy some choice parts of Ukraine, Novorossiya, a corridor to Crimea, maybe some parts along the Belorussian border, but he will not occupy the whole country, he will leave the EU and NATO to pick up the pieces and stick them with the bill. Ukraine might very well become a failed state at that point and will probably require humanitarian aid and some sort of EU protectorship to keep it running.

So, this is unlikely to lead to WW3, but the danger of escalation or a miscalculation is always there.

However, China is a much bigger worry. It has a population and economy nearly ten times that of Russia and a much larger armed forces. As referenced in the video above, they are ultra-nationalistic and genuinely aggressive, ready to go to war at any time. They are just waiting for the right time, when their opponents are at maximum weakness. This may come, when or if the US gets entangled in the Ukrainian war in some manner or perhaps in Iran.

So, the danger here is that a local conflict might easily escalate into a world-wide war, due to the interconnected alliance structure that currently exists in the world, very much like before the two world wars.

WW1: Central Powers vs Entente
WW2: Axis powers vs Allied Powers
WW3: NATO and allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, India) vs SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and allies (Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia).

It is very easy to see how currently frozen conflicts would be reignited in a wider war pitting giants against each other.

These are the likely areas of conflict that would Emerge:

Asia:
South China Sea and Taiwan, Korea
Pakistan and China vs India
Iran vs the US and Israel

Americas:
Venezuela and Cuba vs the US and allies (Colombia, etc..) - though this one is unlikely and might only come at the end of a protracted conflict.

Russia, Belarus and Serbia vs NATO - this one's likely to have multiple fronts along the Russian and Belarussian border, as well as the Balkans.

But let's not forget Malisa's take on the situation in Ukraine and, of course, Russia. If accurate this suggests the real problem is in Ukraine. It's never easy to divide a country according to international law but easy to do so with propaganda aimed at the vulnerabilities of the masses. The usual program is to entice outside powerful interests to act as proxies. If, in fact, Malisa's statement of 'no such thing as a military buildup' is true then something REALLY sinister is afoot. I might be betraying my naivete but I don't believe that American mainstream media would countenance that kind of governmental perfidy, at least not in modern times as history has taught Americans and specifically media that this kind of collusion will end in disaster for all.

Russia has no right whatever to try to gain Ukraine unless the preponderance of Ukrainian citizens want it? And who is going to make that Solomon-like decision?

[Dreamtimer]

I'm listening to the serpentza video about China. I'm wondering, if the older folks reading this government news report see the word revolution, don't they recall the aftermath of the devastation of the first revolution? Don't they recall the bad economics under socialism? They're not so old they don't recall.

Is it just a level of conditioning that they must go along, despite knowing the death that will come?

I know what it's like to be forced go along with something when I have no choice. And I am able to extricate myself from those situations and not be compelled to turn a blind eye.

But folks in China don't have that 'freedom', do they?

This makes the American rhetoric about 'China virus' and violence against asians feed right into the Chinese government propaganda. I suspect that many, maybe most, Americans are too insular and deliberately ignorant to understand or even see this dynamic.

Sigh.

[Dreamtimer]

Regarding his point at 22 minutes, I personally don't let anyone browbeat me about being a supposed racist.

I also don't let anyone browbeat me about being a social marxist, or lib snowflake, or whatever the F.


I was recently with family and my sister in law made a comment about being part of a clan. My niece told her clan was a bad word. I said that clan with a 'c' is fine. Scottish clans have their tartans and many families use the term clan.

It's Klan with a 'K' that's bad.

So clan with a 'c' is a goodie, klan with a 'k' is a baddie.


There was no conflict or offense in this conversation and my niece appreciated the distinction.

[Lord Sidious]

However, China is a much bigger worry. It has a population and economy nearly ten times that of Russia and a much larger armed forces. As referenced in the video above, they are ultra-nationalistic and genuinely aggressive, ready to go to war at any time. They are just waiting for the right time, when their opponents are at maximum weakness. This may come, when or if the US gets entangled in the Ukrainian war in some manner or perhaps in Iran.

Or, are they sick to the back teeth of the anglo saxon empire (may piss be upon it) and all the provocations?

But let's not forget Malisa's take on the situation in Ukraine and, of course, Russia. If accurate this suggests the real problem is in Ukraine.

She is 100% correct.
When I see waffen ss symbols around the place on combat units, I take notice of that..............

[Dreamtimer]

I still hear a version of Chery Crow's song whenever I read that, Sid.

Piss be upon you

Piss be upon you

Be upon you all....

It seems the anglo saxon empire has shot itself in the foot, at the very least.

And what the frick is wrong with people idolizing and imitating the nazis? What kind of mental fugue has seized folks?

[Chris]

Or, are they sick to the back teeth of the anglo saxon empire (may piss be upon it) and all the provocations?

She is 100% correct.
When I see waffen ss symbols around the place on combat units, I take notice of that..............

Can't say I blame them, given the history of the Holodomor. The Nazis may have murdered 6 million Jews, but before them, the Communists (mostly Russians, but with a very significant Jewish element in their leadership) murdered 5 million Ukrainians. When the Waffen SS showed up in the Aftermath of the Holodomor, they were treated like liberators, as they were in the Baltics. I don't agree with their sympathies, but I can certainly understand where it comes from.

[Malisa]

Can't say I blame them, given the history of the Holodomor. The Nazis may have murdered 6 million Jews, but before them, the Communists (mostly Russians, but with a very significant Jewish element in their leadership) murdered 5 million Ukrainians. When the Waffen SS showed up in the Aftermath of the Holodomor, they were treated like liberators, as they were in the Baltics. I don't agree with their sympathies, but I can certainly understand where it comes from.

Well then the Native Americans should go kill all the current US citizens following this approach:

- You must speak one of the native original languages (Sioux or any other, there are tons of them)
- Implement a "no English spoken in the entire continental US, unless you are talking to people from Britain or other English speaking region that comes as tourists
- If you are found speaking English on your own or with neighbours, and all of them were born on America land (didn't get there as immigrants), you all will face consequences, bad ones
- You can't publish any magazine, or talk in English in any other form of media (radio, tv, youtube, tiktok, whaever), and if you are found out by whatever means, you will face consequences
- No one, in general, are to speak English or write it, unless approved by the government in special circumstances

I mean, given the history of the conquest and all the stuff with the annihilation of the tribes in North America, who could blame them for killing thousands of current US citizens, after all? I can certainly understand where it comes from

Does that make sense?

[Chris]

Well then the Native Americans should go kill all the current US citizens following this approach:

- You must speak one of the native original languages (Sioux or any other, there are tons of them)
- Implement a "no English spoken in the entire continental US, unless you are talking to people from Britain or other English speaking region that comes as tourists
- If you are found speaking English on your own or with neighbours, and all of them were born on America land (didn't get there as immigrants), you all will face consequences, bad ones
- You can't publish any magazine, or talk in English in any other form of media (radio, tv, youtube, tiktok, whaever), and if you are found out by whatever means, you will face consequences
- No one, in general, are to speak English or write it, unless approved by the government in special circumstances

I mean, given the history of the conquest and all the stuff with the annihilation of the tribes in North America, who could blame them for killing thousands of current US citizens, after all? I can certainly understand where it comes from

Does that make sense?

You don't have to lecture me on Ukrainian minority politics, my ex-girlfriend was an ethnic Hungarian from the Ukraine and of course we get plenty of news from what goes on there. For the record, I do think the policies towards minorities in Ukraine are discriminatory and wrong.

[Malisa]

You don't have to lecture me on Ukrainian minority politics, my ex-girlfriend was an ethnic Hungarian from the Ukraine and of course we get plenty of news from what goes on there. For the record, I do think the policies towards minorities in Ukraine are discriminatory and wrong.

I'm not lecturing on anything

I expected you would have realised on your own that you have taken a very narrow path around this. I don't know your wife, therefore i can't say much about that. Why is she entered into this conversation? Should i introduce my family as well as support characters? Why even at all?

Wouldn't it be better, if instead of mentioning your wife and her experiences, would you talk from your own? What i said, was not replied at all in your last post, but it was in direct reply to your mention of the Holodomor and nothing much more.

What do you think about we compare current Russia to the current US, and both massacres?

Should the current US people be treated the same way as the ethnic Russians are at Donbas right now, due to whatever happened in the past? Something past generations that are not even alive anymore did?

That's was the question

[Dreamtimer]

Well then the Native Americans should go kill all the current US citizens following this approach:

- You must speak one of the native original languages (Sioux or any other, there are tons of them)
- Implement a "no English spoken in the entire continental US, unless you are talking to people from Britain or other English speaking region that comes as tourists
- If you are found speaking English on your own or with neighbours, and all of them were born on America land (didn't get there as immigrants), you all will face consequences, bad ones
- You can't publish any magazine, or talk in English in any other form of media (radio, tv, youtube, tiktok, whaever), and if you are found out by whatever means, you will face consequences
- No one, in general, are to speak English or write it, unless approved by the government in special circumstances

I mean, given the history of the conquest and all the stuff with the annihilation of the tribes in North America, who could blame them for killing thousands of current US citizens, after all? I can certainly understand where it comes from

Does that make sense?

This would be a direct parallel to what we did. But perhaps add in that all our children have to go out to reservations to their native schools and they will be severely punished if they speak english. They won't be allowed back home and many will disappear.


This would, of course, be horrible. And vengeance and vendettas don't get anyone anywhere. We have the story of the Hatfields and McCoys in America. They would just keep shooting each other because of past shootings. It was never ending.

[Wind]

NATO has already made it clear that they will not defend Ukraine, neither will they give the required guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO. That gives Putin carte blanche to attack Ukraine, which I think he will early next year, once the ground is frozen and large scale operations can begin. He will probably occupy some choice parts of Ukraine, Novorossiya, a corridor to Crimea, maybe some parts along the Belorussian border, but he will not occupy the whole country, he will leave the EU and NATO to pick up the pieces and stick them with the bill.

You might want to take a look at this thread. I think it's just a matter of time now.

[Chris]

You might want to take a look at this thread. I think it's just a matter of time now.

Very good thread.

I agree, a Russian invasion of Ukraine this winter seems like a near certainty.

In fact, the completely non-starter Russian ultimatum sent to NATO sounds exactly like the one my own country (Austria-Hungary at the time) gave to Serbia on the eve of WW1, which quickly escalated into a world conflict.

We know that the sides are gearing up for war, for me, the fact Germany has just banned Russia Today, the Kremlin's propaganda news channel and Russia responded by stopping gas shipments, even reversing flows for a while, shows me that things are about to get serious.

Whether this escalates into a wider conflict is currently unknown, but the danger is very real. A lot depends on how NATO and China react. If it seems that the US is distracted by Ukraine, China might seize this opportunity to invade Taiwan and there is always Iran to worry about. Things are about to get interesting.

I'm not lecturing on anything

I expected you would have realised on your own that you have taken a very narrow path around this. I don't know your wife, therefore i can't say much about that. Why is she entered into this conversation? Should i introduce my family as well as support characters? Why even at all?

Wouldn't it be better, if instead of mentioning your wife and her experiences, would you talk from your own? What i said, was not replied at all in your last post, but it was in direct reply to your mention of the Holodomor and nothing much more.

What do you think about we compare current Russia to the current US, and both massacres?

Should the current US people be treated the same way as the ethnic Russians are at Donbas right now, due to whatever happened in the past? Something past generations that are not even alive anymore did?

That's was the question

I just don't get you. I honestly think you have a pro-Russia bias that you don't seem to be able to see past. I see this in a lot of Russians, even some that grew up abroad, like my favourite commentator on all things Russian (and American), Dmitry Orlov.

[Chris]

Looking at the Guardian front page today, it does seem that war is both imminent and unavoidable.

I don't know how this is going to play out, but there are rumblings on the internets, that Ukraine is already preparing for trench warfare and that the US is sending tanks via Greece and Bulgaria. Apparently, hundreds of tanks have already crossed the border from Greek ports.

I don't know how well-equipped the Ukrainian army really is, but it may not actually be the paper tiger everyone assumes it to be. The recent war over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan swiftly defeated its long-time enemy with modern NATO weapons systems, Russia-backed Armenia, who fought mostly with Soviet-era, but also some modern Russian equipment, makes me wonder whether Russian victory really is a foregone conclusion. I think the Ukrainians are very motivated to defend their homeland and will fight a rearguard action if they have to and they will get all the support they need from the EU and NATO. Also, many countries that are in the ex-Soviet sphere of influence will want to get involved in the conflict on the Ukrainian side, unofficially, perhaps through volunteers and clandestine weapons shipments. Poland in particular wants to give Russia a bloody nose, they have been preparing for just such an eventuality for decades now and have recently decided to double the size of their armed forces and have embarked on a major armament programme.

I always assumed, that Russia would quickly defeat and occupy Ukraine, but looking at the situation a bit more in detail, this might actually end up becoming a quagmire for Russia, from which they will find it very difficult to extricate themselves. It also shows major Russian weakness, since they will be fighting a major war in their own backyard, that might not necessarily end with their clear victory.

[Chris]

The Plot thickens this week with NATO distracting the SCO with some Kazakh action. Looking at the details, there is little doubt that this is a Western-Engineered coup, along the lines of the various colour revolutions that happened in Ukraine and Georgia.

SCO troops (mostly from Russia) have been deployed almost immediately and they are trying to put down the revolution, which ostensibly broke out due to a rise in fuel prices. Given that Kazakhstan is one of the major energy producers in the world, with massive reserves of gas, coal, oil and uranium, this is more than a little curious. Clearly, Kazakhstan can just set energy prices on it own internal market any way they wish, like other major oil exporting countries, who will often even subsidize the price of fuel or give it away for next to nothing.

So why did they decide to raise prices, if their production is entirely domestic? It's not like they have to buy energy on the world market at spot prices, so the move makes no sense. I'm not privy to the details, but how interesting that this happened just as Russia and Belarus were poised to invade Ukraine.

Now troops and material will have to be diverted from the Ukrainian border to Kazakhstan and this may delay or even scupper Putin's plans, at least for now.

If the West manages to turn Kazakhstan into a client state, it would be a major coup for them and a serious threat to Russia and China. Kazakh energy could be exported via the Caspian and black seas all the way to Europe, cutting out Russia and China via pipelines. Georgia and Azerbaijan are already Western client states, so the stage is set for this to take place.

I suspect this particular colour revolution will fail, but the goal may only have been to distract Russia and stop the invasion of Ukraine through other means. It may turn out to be a very smart move or a very stupid one, depending on Putin's response. Interesting times.

[Lord Sidious]

Should i introduce my family as well as support characters?

If they have any hand grenades, I would say introduce em to me, I could use a new source.............