World War Three

**Emil El Zapato** · 28th January 2022, 12:40

Originally posted by Dreamtimer

My understanding is that US intelligence is still stovepiped and territorial. There are many ways to determine what's going on. Watch movements, listen to 'chatter', compare official statements, watch what the private sectors are doing, watch where money is flowing.

As regular folks we can see a lot even though we can't see everything due to the amount of information we can obtain. Assuming we actually use logic and analysis as opposed to emotions and confirmation bias.

Makes perfect sense to me, DT.

**Lord Sidious** · 28th January 2022, 13:26

Originally posted by Chris

I happen to think US and UK intelligence reports on what is happening on the ground in Ukraine have been pretty decent and usually turned out to be reasonably accurate.

And you know this how?

**Chris** · 28th January 2022, 17:04

Originally posted by Fred Steeves

What's the basis for trusting U.S. Intelligence as a reliable source of information Chris?

They have drones, satellites, binoculars, planes, spaceships, listening equipment and a spy network. I don't have any of those things. Therefore I'm forced to rely on whatever intelligence they decide to share with the public. Sure, it's done selectively and to serve an agenda, but that doesn't mean it's wrong. They have been spot-on about the build up of Russian forces from the very beginning, which Russia initially denied. Notice, they're not denying it any more.

**Aragorn** · 28th January 2022, 18:13

Originally posted by Chris

They have drones, satellites, binoculars, planes, spaceships, listening equipment and a spy network. I don't have any of those things. Therefore I'm forced to rely on whatever intelligence they decide to share with the public. Sure, it's done selectively and to serve an agenda, but that doesn't mean it's wrong. They have been spot-on about the build up of Russian forces from the very beginning, which Russia initially denied. Notice, they're not denying it any more.

Saddam ─ weapons of mass destruction that turned out not to be there.

ISIS ─ a whole well-trained and well-equipped army that apparently appeared out of thin air without that anyone saw them coming.

Jus' saying, ya know?

**Wind** · 28th January 2022, 18:56

It's good to remember that US intelligence has always it's own agenda too. Especially CIA.

**modwiz** · 28th January 2022, 19:18

Originally posted by Wind

It's always good to remember that US intelligence has always it's own agenda too. Especially CIA.

US intel is a lot of bad/malicious gossip. Some is just ineptitude and alcohol and some is meant to harm. Just like a small town.

USA is no small town and its gossip has been catastrophic for millions of people.

**Lord Sidious** · 29th January 2022, 05:51

Originally posted by Chris

They have drones, satellites, binoculars, planes, spaceships, listening equipment and a spy network. I don't have any of those things. Therefore I'm forced to rely on whatever intelligence they decide to share with the public. Sure, it's done selectively and to serve an agenda, but that doesn't mean it's wrong. They have been spot-on about the build up of Russian forces from the very beginning, which Russia initially denied. Notice, they're not denying it any more.

I think you forgot to mention cognotive dissonance.
You believe them because you want to.

**Fred Steeves** · 29th January 2022, 13:31

Originally posted by Fred Steeves

What's the basis for trusting U.S. Intelligence as a reliable source of information Chris?

Originally posted by Chris

They have drones, satellites, binoculars, planes, spaceships, listening equipment and a spy network. I don't have any of those things. Therefore I'm forced to rely on whatever intelligence they decide to share with the public. Sure, it's done selectively and to serve an agenda, but that doesn't mean it's wrong. They have been spot-on about the build up of Russian forces from the very beginning, which Russia initially denied. Notice, they're not denying it any more.

When I asked my question, it wasn't about their information collecting abilities, that's not in dispute. I was more hoping that there's a part of their track record in what they choose to tell the general public, a part that I've somehow been missing, that demonstrates much more than basically this: "we're the good guys, they're the bad guys - "we use our military for the good of all mankind, they use theirs because they're aggressive and belligerent" - "we're just playing war games to keep our armed forces nimble and ready, they're looking to provoke a world war" - "they have a leader who's abusing his own people, therefore we have to go in and do something about it".

"Operation Mockingbird" is a real thing, that's not in dispute either, and it's pretty hard to miss. U.S. Intelligence straight up uses the media as the propaganda arm of its operations.

That blowhard neocon Mike Pompeo even joked about how "we lied, we cheated, we stole, and how it reminds you of the glory of the American experiment".

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCjWAq7563I

Chris, what compels you to believe a word these people say? Sure the Russians are massing troops, but the million dollar question is why? Whatever reason US Intelligence pins on it, tells me that's one reason to scratch off the list of possibilities.

I tend not to believe known serial liars.

**Aragorn** · 29th January 2022, 13:38

Originally posted by Fred Steeves

Chris, what compels you to believe a word these people say? Sure the Russians are massing troops, but the million dollar question is why? Whatever reason US Intelligence pins on it, tells me that's one reason to scratch off the list of possibilities.

I tend not to believe known serial liars.

According to our own media over here, the Ukranian president himself has stated that he doesn't believe there will be a war, and the French president ─ who is mediating ─ also seems confident that an armed conflict can be avoided.

**Chris** · 29th January 2022, 15:27

So, if I get the general vibe around here, most seem to think the Russian buildup on the Ukrainian border is just a hoax or a bluff and America (and the the UK) is pulling another Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq hoax for some unknown reason...

Interesting theory, but I see no evidence for it.

Personally, I think the Ukrainian and French presidents are delusional, if they think Putin is bluffing.

I don't trust intelligence services any more than you guys do, but the fact that Russia is amassing enough troops and military equipment for an invasion of the Ukraine is beyond dispute. We can argue about his true intentions and I don't think he has decided whether to invade either way, but he wants to have that option.

In any case, we shall see...

**Emil El Zapato** · 29th January 2022, 16:36

Originally posted by Chris

So, if I get the general vibe around here, most seem to think the Russian buildup on the Ukrainian border is just a hoax or a bluff and America (and the the UK) is pulling another Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq hoax for some unknown reason...

Interesting theory, but I see no evidence for it.

Personally, I think the Ukrainian and French presidents are delusional, if they think Putin is bluffing.

I don't trust intelligence services any more than you guys do, but the fact that Russia is amassing enough troops and military equipment for an invasion of the Ukraine is beyond dispute. We can argue about his true intentions and I don't think he has decided whether to invade either way, but he wants to have that option.

In any case, we shall see...

So the way I understand it is that the same CIA officials and operatives have been working the job since 1950...damn they must be getting old by now. Conservative estimate (which some might like) they would be in their late eighties to mid-nineties...which I suppose would help them blend in with a few world leader groups.

**Wind** · 29th January 2022, 17:33

Perhaps here is an explanation.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJNtfyq3TDE

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKAt56zW0-g

**Octopus Garden** · 30th January 2022, 01:01

Chris, I think you have insight about Russia, from first hand experience. It's great for balance. I know the U.S military industrial complex and intelligence agencies are self interested and violent, but I like to be reminded that they are not the only assholes on the planet. As far as this particular fiasco goes, really hard to tell what is going on, in terms of motivation and goals, from where I sit. Anyway, thank you!

**Emil El Zapato** · 30th January 2022, 11:09

Originally posted by Wind

Perhaps here is an explanation.

Wind, this is really good, I almost feel sympathy for Putin ... but as the speaker says ... 'you gotta move on'. If the U.S. split up, I would have very little emotional connection or territorial impetus beyond my back yard.

**Dreamtimer** · 30th January 2022, 11:26

The dogs and yaks aren't a US/Russian thing. They're a US/Chinese thing. And they're of great concern when it comes to world wars. We've seen the dog here on the forum in a video with cheetas. The Chinesse have developed similar robots called yaks. They can carry a heavy payload for their size. Why in the world would that be? Oh yeah, to carry guns and rocket launchers.