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Thread: World War Three

  1. #151
    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    I think Putin knows exactly what his odds are, and what to expect. He always thinks years ahead of his opponents.
    That is the pyschopath's jam Aragorn, they were born thinking ahead of all the non-entities. It's a gift from the dark side that always ends in self-immolation. Albeit, after a good deal of immolating.
    Not necessarily. Even though I will agree that Putin shows many signs of psychopathy, chess players are also typically capable of thinking far ahead. In and of itself, it has nothing to do with psychopathy, but with being able to make abstractions and seeing things from the grander perspective.

    Also, it doesn't necessarily have to end nefariously for the individual capable of doing this. That which causes them to fail eventually ─ if they do ─ is hubris and thinking themselves infallible.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    Not necessarily. Even though I will agree that Putin shows many signs of psychopathy, chess players are also typically capable of thinking far ahead. In and of itself, it has nothing to do with psychopathy, but with being able to make abstractions and seeing things from the grander perspective.

    Also, it doesn't necessarily have to end nefariously for the individual capable of doing this. That which causes them to fail eventually ─ if they do ─ is hubris and thinking themselves infallible.
    Fair enough, but 'Frank'ly I'm surprised your hatred of the United States is so deep that you are actually defending Putin. Hey, I'm an American, do you hate me too?

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    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Fair enough, but 'Frank'ly I'm surprised your hatred of the United States is so deep that you are actually defending Putin. Hey, I'm an American, do you hate me too?
    Does that mean you hate me, too? I ain't hangin' around anyplace where I'm not loved. I don't need anyplace that much. Incidentally, boredom is a poor reason to write a human off.

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  7. #154
    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    I think Putin knows exactly what his odds are, and what to expect. He always thinks years ahead of his opponents.
    That is the pyschopath's jam Aragorn, they were born thinking ahead of all the non-entities. It's a gift from the dark side that always ends in self-immolation. Albeit, after a good deal of immolating.
    Not necessarily. Even though I will agree that Putin shows many signs of psychopathy, chess players are also typically capable of thinking far ahead. In and of itself, it has nothing to do with psychopathy, but with being able to make abstractions and seeing things from the grander perspective.

    Also, it doesn't necessarily have to end nefariously for the individual capable of doing this. That which causes them to fail eventually ─ if they do ─ is hubris and thinking themselves infallible.
    Fair enough, but 'Frank'ly I'm surprised your hatred of the United States is so deep that you are actually defending Putin. Hey, I'm an American, do you hate me too?

    • One: I am not defending Putin in any possible way. I think Putin is a dangerous man, but I also know that he's no fool, and that he's not interested in showing the world how big his balls are ─ that would rather be the American thing to do.

      I am however painting an objective picture of the situation, and I've already had such an objective picture of the situation since my teenage years, when the Soviet Union still existed and we were all being indoctrinated over here with The Big Commie Scare™ ─ which was quite ironic, given that I myself was pretty much a communist when I was a teenager. You on the other hand have been raised and indoctrinated with American Exceptionalism, so I don't expect you to understand that.


    • Two: My dislike for the United States as a nation wouldn't be so strong if it weren't such an insidious, self-important and ─ quite frankly ─ insular and socially retarded crypto-fascist culture built upon hypocrisy and blind consumerism, not to mention the prolonged episode of slavery and institutionalized racism, the genocide against the indigenous peoples of North America, and the two nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.


    • Three: I do not hate individual human beings for living in the USA, and therefore I also do not hate you. I have many friends in your country, and some of them are very dear and close friends. I also do not hate everything about the USA; just the things I've listed in the bullet point above this one.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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  9. #155
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    • One: I am not defending Putin in any possible way. I think Putin is a dangerous man, but I also know that he's no fool, and that he's not interested in showing the world how big his balls are ─ that would rather be the American thing to do.

      I am however painting an objective picture of the situation, and I've already had such an objective picture of the situation since my teenage years, when the Soviet Union still existed and we were all being indoctrinated over here with The Big Commie Scare™ ─ which was quite ironic, given that I myself was pretty much a communist when I was a teenager. You on the other hand have been raised and indoctrinated with American Exceptionalism, so I don't expect you to understand that.


    • Two: My dislike for the United States as a nation wouldn't be so strong if it weren't such an insidious, self-important and ─ quite frankly ─ insular and socially retarded crypto-fascist culture built upon hypocrisy and blind consumerism, not to mention the prolonged episode of slavery and institutionalized racism, the genocide against the indigenous peoples of North America, and the two nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.


    • Three: I do not hate individual human beings for living in the USA, and therefore I also do not hate you. I have many friends in your country, and some of them are very dear and close friends. I also do not hate everything about the USA; just the things I've listed in the bullet point above this one.
    I have nothing against communism, that is an old debate. I do firmly despise authoritarianism. And that's about it. Everything else is cool with me. I'm glad you don't hate me Aragorn, I've invested too much time around here to have to deal with that...

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  11. #156
    Super Moderator Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Fair enough, but 'Frank'ly I'm surprised your hatred of the United States is so deep that you are actually defending Putin. Hey, I'm an American, do you hate me too?
    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    • One: I am not defending Putin in any possible way. I think Putin is a dangerous man, but I also know that he's no fool, and that he's not interested in showing the world how big his balls are ─ that would rather be the American thing to do.

      I am however painting an objective picture of the situation, and I've already had such an objective picture of the situation since my teenage years, when the Soviet Union still existed and we were all being indoctrinated over here with The Big Commie Scare™ ─ which was quite ironic, given that I myself was pretty much a communist when I was a teenager. You on the other hand have been raised and indoctrinated with American Exceptionalism, so I don't expect you to understand that.


    • Two: My dislike for the United States as a nation wouldn't be so strong if it weren't such an insidious, self-important and ─ quite frankly ─ insular and socially retarded crypto-fascist culture built upon hypocrisy and blind consumerism, not to mention the prolonged episode of slavery and institutionalized racism, the genocide against the indigenous peoples of North America, and the two nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.


    • Three: I do not hate individual human beings for living in the USA, and therefore I also do not hate you. I have many friends in your country, and some of them are very dear and close friends. I also do not hate everything about the USA; just the things I've listed in the bullet point above this one.
    You have a lot more patience than I do Aragorn, to take the time in answering such a ridiculous observation/question point by point the way you did. Hats off!

    Did anyone else have the kid table and the adult table for holiday meals? A kid couldn't just up and say they're mature and grown up enough to join the adult table, and thus the adult conversation, they actually had to demonstrate that their maturity process had progressed to the point where there was simply no argument from any of the adults, this one's ready to join us now.

    At times I feel like forums should be the same way. There should be a "kid's" version of the forum, and an "adult's" version of the forum where serious discussion can be found. So long as the the most of what one is capable of is akin to flicking peas off of the spoon, giggling, and making fart noises, you'll not be welcome at the big boy table.
    The unexamined life is not worth living.

    Socrates

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  13. #157
    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    Better start brushing up on your Russian in the new Republic of Western Karelia over there... You might need it sooner than you think.
    Ever considered a career as a comedian?

    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    Finland and Sweden are both considering NATO membership and want to join as quickly as possible.
    I don't know where you read that, but Finland isn't considering that at all. The last thing we should do is join the NATO imo.

    Here's another perspective to consider, What If Putin’s Bluffing? I suppose we shall see how things will go in a matter of week or two.

    So if Putin can’t win a war in Ukraine, faces crippling economic consequences if he tries, and is doing nothing to prepare his people to fight one, what is he doing?

    The simplest answer is that he appears to calculate that bluffing about war might win him some concessions from Washington and NATO. Actual war, by contrast, will not.

    From the very start of the crisis Putin has been very careful to insist that none of his current military maneuvers have any hostile intent. He has not threatened Kyiv or made any demands. He has not even publicly complained about the treatment of ethnic Russians in Ukraine — the casus belli that triggered the 2014 war. Instead, he has vocally and repeatedly beat the drum all Russian leaders have been beating since the fall of the Soviet Union — that NATO expansion up to Russia’s borders is unacceptable. The aims of Putin’s phony war are very clear: He wants an end to NATO’s engagement in Ukraine.

    Does Putin need to fight an actual war to achieve that end? As yet, he doesn’t have to. Ukraine is not about to join NATO. Indeed, under current rules it cannot join NATO because it has unresolved border disputes in Crimea, Donbas and Transdnistr dating back to 1994. There’s already been considerable pushback from some of Washington’s European partners about further engagement with a country that has no legal chance of ever joining. And that’s the point of Putin’s pugnacious diplomacy — to sow enough dissent in NATO ranks about the wisdom of its Ukraine policy and to make it very clear that more military help to Ukraine could, in the future, lead to war. In a word, Putin’s showing the world that he’s serious.

    The contrary argument is that Putin believes that now is the time to take his chance, decapitate the government of Ukraine with a quick strike into Kyiv on the pretext of some concocted provocation and set up a puppet state. That certainly seems to be the message of an unprecedentedly detailed U.K. government statement issued last week that openly accused the Kremlin of planning a coup and named four former Ukrainian ministers in pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych’s government of being Moscow’s candidates for leadership of such a quisling state.

    Is it possible that some people in Russia’s military and intelligence services have cooked up such a plan and sounded out potential candidates? Absolutely. It’s also highly plausible that Russia has many undercover officers and agents exploring ways to foment ethnic unrest and organize provocations against the Russian-speaking population of central and eastern Ukraine. But does that add up to a serious coup plan? Hardly.

    Former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev, named by the British as the Kremlin’s puppet candidate for Ukraine’s presidency, lost his seat when his party failed to win 5% of the vote in the 2019 elections. And despite being the owner of the “Nash” TV station — which Ukrainian regulators have been seeking to shut down since last year for airing pro-Russian propaganda — he’s actually banned from Russia, where prosecutors have frozen the assets of a firm belonging to his father. The other four men named by London as key plotters — former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, former deputy secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Volodymyr Sivkovich, ex-parliamentarians Sergiy Arbuzov and Andriy Kluyev — have, by contrast, been exiles in Russia since 2014. The idea of these discredited has-beens forming a credible Russian-backed government in Kyiv is risible.

    The next question is why the West is apparently taking the threat of invasion so seriously. The answer is equally simple: Talk is cheap. Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson have both threatened dire consequences for Putin if he invades. If he doesn’t, they can claim the political credit for facing down a dangerous aggressor. But note one crucial detail: No Western leader, including Biden, has ever promised to put NATO boots on the ground to protect Ukraine, only materiel and economic sanctions have been promised.

    But in one sense, Putin has already made his point by exposing cracks in NATO unity — and by bringing Russia to the forefront of Washington’s global strategy. Back in 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed that waning American interest in Europe was making NATO “brain dead.” Biden’s policies also showed that Europe was an afterthought — from a strategic pivot toward China to the Afghanistan withdrawal, to supplanting France as a supplier of submarines to the Australians. It’s no accident that Putin has pursued direct talks with the Americans over Ukraine, conducted over the heads of Europeans. As Elbridge Colby — the architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, dominated heavily by China — put it recently, the U.S. “won’t have a military big enough to increase commitments in Europe and have a chance of restoring [U.S.] edge in Asia against China.” Therefore, it’s Washington that has to be convinced that deeper engagement with Ukraine is a dangerous distraction from their true strategic goals.

    Meanwhile, Germany has refused to supply weapons to Kyiv. German naval chief Kay-Achim Schoenbach argued earlier this month that it was “easy to give [Putin] the respect he wants, and probably deserves as well” — and called reports of Russian plans to invade Ukraine “inept.” Though Schoenbach soon resigned, his comments betray a deep division between many political and military leaders in Germany and France, who are nervous about further NATO expansion and the Eastern Europeans who have been most vocal in stepping up support for Kyiv’s eventual accession.

    Russian Sen. Oleg Morozov, who until his retirement last year was a key member of Putin’s inner circle, gave crucial insight into the Kremlin’s hopes for its talks with Washington. “The [Americans] could have said no a long time ago,” Morozov told Rossiya One on Jan. 21. “There was nothing hindering them from saying, ‘listen, none of your proposals is acceptable to us, not one of them is possible, goodbye, the talks are over.’ I, as a person who has been involved in talks of this level many times, take this to mean that negotiations are ongoing.” Offering a piece of “insider information,” Morozov observed that “there is a part of these talks which does not appear in the public sphere: ‘Let’s agree on this publicly, but about this other thing we’ll agree on not publicly.’ We’ll clench our fists and we’ll fulfil those agreements. And I believe that inside that clenched fist could be the very point that scares everyone so much — Ukraine and NATO.”

    In other words, the Kremlin security establishment’s plan is to convince Biden that they’re serious about their Ukrainian red line. And that they are not expecting a public repudiation of Ukraine by Washington, which would be politically impossible. Much less, a yes to the Kremlin’s absurd demand that NATO agree not to deploy troops in member states that are close to Russia’s borders. Rather, the hope is that an understanding can be reached, a point made, that Ukraine will be a bridge too far.

    Clearly, there are dangers in Putin’s plan. When Putin took Crimea in 2014, he lost Ukraine. By removing 13 million pro-Moscow voters, plus 2 million more in Donbas, he skewed the hitherto finely balanced East-West seesaw of Ukrainian elections permanently to the West. It was Putin who ensured that there will never again be a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv — and in the ensuing war he did more to cement Ukraine’s sense of nationhood than any post-independence Ukrainian politician ever had. The same danger applies today — that threatening Ukraine only strengthens its resolve to join NATO. But Putin’s correct assumption is that it’s not Ukraine but Washington that calls the shots on NATO expansion — and his key aim is to signal that as a potentially catastrophic mistake.

    The vital question is what Putin will do if none of his demands are met and the confrontation rumbles on without any compromise that would allow him to de-escalate without losing face. So far, just moving troops and tanks have succeeded in exposing NATO’s disunity, won him summits with Biden and the EU and forced the West to take Russia seriously. But if, at the end of a long road of talks, threats and cajoling, the West remains insistent that Ukraine must be taken into the NATO fold, will Putin attack? It’s possible. But to do that he would have to be willing to crash his own economy and risk his own position. To do that, Putin would have to be desperate. But for the moment, Putin’s very far from desperate – he’s riding high.
    Last edited by Wind, 26th January 2022 at 20:54.

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    Quote Originally posted by Fred Steeves View Post
    You have a lot more patience than I do Aragorn, to take the time in answering such a ridiculous observation/question point by point the way you did. Hats off!

    Did anyone else have the kid table and the adult table for holiday meals? A kid couldn't just up and say they're mature and grown up enough to join the adult table, and thus the adult conversation, they actually had to demonstrate that their maturity process had progressed to the point where there was simply no argument from any of the adults, this one's ready to join us now.

    At times I feel like forums should be the same way. There should be a "kid's" version of the forum, and an "adult's" version of the forum where serious discussion can be found. So long as the the most of what one is capable of is akin to flicking peas off of the spoon, giggling, and making fart noises, you'll not be welcome at the big boy table.
    Fred, do you really want to start trouble with me again? Haven't you had enough. I don't really know what your game is but as long as you have Aragorn in your corner I'm not interested in playing.

    If you think that was a ridiculous question that goes a long way in helping me understand why I find you the most annoying passive aggressive to aggravate my continuing path to the straight truth. And you can shove Christian in your back pocket!

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    Quote Originally posted by Wind View Post
    Ever considered a career as a comedian?



    I don't know where you read that, but Finland isn't considering that at all. The last thing we should do is join the NATO imo.

    Here's another perspective to consider, What If Putin’s Bluffing? I suppose we shall see how things will go in a matter of week or two.
    I'm so pissed right now I can't think straight Wind, but honestly it is as real as any possibility given the most important thing to Herr Putin is to get attention and be 'big'. We can always hope that is his primary goal.

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    Senior Member Lord Sidious's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    My dislike for the United States as a nation wouldn't be so strong if it weren't such an insidious, self-important and ─ quite frankly ─ insular and socially retarded crypto-fascist culture built upon hypocrisy and blind consumerism, not to mention the prolonged episode of slavery and institutionalized racism, the genocide against the indigenous peoples of North America, and the two nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
    Now that's a quote and a half nugg.
    Well done.
    Oh, one thing, it's united snakes, just for future reference.............

    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Fred, do you really want to start trouble with me again? Haven't you had enough. I don't really know what your game is but as long as you have Aragorn in your corner I'm not interested in playing.

    If you think that was a ridiculous question that goes a long way in helping me understand why I find you the most annoying passive aggressive to aggravate my continuing path to the straight truth. And you can shove Christian in your back pocket!
    I would say that you should have no concerns about aragornugget.
    He doesn't take sides
    Ní siocháin go saoirse

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    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    Fred, do you really want to start trouble with me again? Haven't you had enough. I don't really know what your game is but as long as you have Aragorn in your corner I'm not interested in playing.

    If you think that was a ridiculous question that goes a long way in helping me understand why I find you the most annoying passive aggressive to aggravate my continuing path to the straight truth. And you can shove Christian in your back pocket!
    Let's keep it civilized, shall we?


    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    Quote Originally posted by BeastOfBologna View Post
    I'm so pissed right now I can't think straight Wind, but honestly it is as real as any possibility given the most important thing to Herr Putin is to get attention and be 'big'. We can always hope that is his primary goal.
    That's true of all leaders, I guess. He likely has other goals too that might lead right back to that one. I like the idea that Wind posted about this whole thing might be a bluff to wrangle some concessions. That's how Putin thinks, from my own observations. He seems to be several steps ahead, all the time. Of all of the pols, leaders, in the world, this guy is the wiliest and smartest.

    I feel I was conditioned growing up to hate everything communism stood for. Now, I hate the idea of totalitarianism, like you. But communism, as an economic model doesn't bother me that much. For example, if the state owned my place, that would be fine with me, as long as I have a secure place to live, I am okay. It would help me, too, if under that system, everyone was guaranteed a place to live, so I didn't have to feel gutted thinking about people living on the street. That has to be a hallmark of an uncivilized society.

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  27. #164
    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Fred Steeves View Post
    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    • One: I am not defending Putin in any possible way. I think Putin is a dangerous man, but I also know that he's no fool, and that he's not interested in showing the world how big his balls are ─ that would rather be the American thing to do.

      I am however painting an objective picture of the situation, and I've already had such an objective picture of the situation since my teenage years, when the Soviet Union still existed and we were all being indoctrinated over here with The Big Commie Scare™ ─ which was quite ironic, given that I myself was pretty much a communist when I was a teenager. You on the other hand have been raised and indoctrinated with American Exceptionalism, so I don't expect you to understand that.


    • Two: My dislike for the United States as a nation wouldn't be so strong if it weren't such an insidious, self-important and ─ quite frankly ─ insular and socially retarded crypto-fascist culture built upon hypocrisy and blind consumerism, not to mention the prolonged episode of slavery and institutionalized racism, the genocide against the indigenous peoples of North America, and the two nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.


    • Three: I do not hate individual human beings for living in the USA, and therefore I also do not hate you. I have many friends in your country, and some of them are very dear and close friends. I also do not hate everything about the USA; just the things I've listed in the bullet point above this one.
    You have a lot more patience than I do Aragorn, to take the time in answering such a ridiculous observation/question point by point the way you did. Hats off!
    I took BeastOfBologna's question as a personal allegation, and considering that he repeated his question in the next post, an allegation that had to be addressed with a certain urgency. This sort of situation then always prompts me to take a deep breath (or two) and explain myself in a logical and detailed way.

    A similar thing happened only about a week ago on the "Gracy has left Avalon" thread over at the other side of the pond, when someone who goes by the name Vangelo over there arrogantly gaslighted the other interlocutors into believing that I would actually be you in disguise. I responded to that allegation by stating that...



    • Several members there ─ including Chester ─ have seen me on video and therefore know what I look like, and what I sound like.


    • You yourself have (or have had) videos up on YouTube, in which people could see what you look like, and what you sound like.


    • My English is so good because I started teaching myself English ─ which is not an official language in Belgium ─ when I was only somewhere between 6 and 8 years old, resulting in my ability to partake in normal everyday conversations in English ─ and with an authentic Oxford pronunciation ─ by the time I was 12, which itself was two years before we started getting English classes at school.

      And when we then did, the only English words my contemporaries understood were "yes", "no", "boy", "girl, and "sex", while I in turn was chatting with the teacher about our home, using simple present tense, present continuous tense, simple past tense, and so on. My English teacher ─ rest his soul; he died of cancer before he was even 40 ─ was flabbergasted.

      I no longer have an Oxford pronunciation now, of course. American movies, TV series and music had all but turned that into North American English by the time I was in my mid-to-late twenties, and that is still what I sound like today.



    I actually felt like punching Vangelo in the face over his unadulterated arrogance, but considering the prohibitive nature of our respective geographical circumstances, explaining myself seemed like the better option.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    When it comes to the potential of world war 3 breaking out, Russia vs Ukraine has nothing on BOB vs Fred...

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