Chester's Chatter

[Wind]

wha?! that's how things happen, sometimes we learn things and don't even realize it...

Yeah.

[Aragorn]

Veee Vill Tell YOU vat to THINK!

Yes, I can see that you're trying very hard.

[Chester]

[Emil El Zapato]

you silly, Chester...

[Chester]

Jimmy Dore on Useful Idiots, Interview Only

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxIjbulIYDs

[modwiz]

Jimmy Dore on Useful Idiots, Interview Only

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxIjbulIYDs

I watched the entire video and enjoyed it very much. I have never voted for a republican president. I fact, I stopped voting after helping put Obama in for his first term.

I am now an observer of the world, looking out from with Her Dreaming. The eye of the storm, observing all we all see on media. But, seldom in our neighborhoods.

Lighten our loads by making the important things in life personal. Family and community, if they are not in disarray, should be how we inform ourselves to the state of our actionable world.

We have power where/when we can act. To be empowered is to cast off any victim status.

The El-ites have their plans, yawn, the empowered have theirs and know it is in family and/or community and building bonds of love.

From , "Go To Your Room" (The Goob Song), about the El-ites

" The gig is up, your bloodlines suck, they've gone to hell,
now why don't you go there, as well? "

[Aianawa]

Great interview, they are all demacrats ?

[modwiz]

Great interview, they are all demacrats ?

I do think they are. In fact, pretty sure of it.

[Emil El Zapato]

Didn't watch it, Aianawa but Chester wouldn't have posted it if they were...they are something else altogether...either Russian or Chinese agitators.

[Chester]

Didn't watch it, Aianawa but Chester wouldn't have posted it if they were...they are something else altogether...either Russian or Chinese agitators.

Hey NAP - can you stop speaking for me? Please? I know you are emboldened because Aragorn has your back, Dreamtimer has your back... I know you are emboldened to use ad hominems against me which you did in recent post which is supposedly against this forums rules because you know they won't be enforced in your case as long as you don't go too far.

But before you make stupid statements like I just quoted... statements by your own admission are uninformed because you didn't watch the video or because you don't do your homework - next time... watch the video. Because if you did, we might actually have an opportunity to have a fair conversation.

To the rest - Yes, Jimmy Dore is a self proclaimed heavy leftist... and he's not ashamed of his politics, but he's absolutely sick of the same exact things I am sick of and, to those who are actually capable of intellectual honesty and honesty with themselves, like myself, this video is worth every second.

[Chester]

what should be postable in this thread - Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

Is instead being posted here -

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.

However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.

Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

“We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.”

The government urged caution, saying it was far too soon to claim victory.

“Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared ... I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians,” Sandra Zampa, an undersecretary at the health ministry, said in a statement.

“We should instead invite Italians to maintain the maximum caution, maintain physical distancing, avoid large groups, to frequently wash their hands and to wear masks.”

A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

[emphasis Chester]

[Emil El Zapato]

Chester, Chester, Chester, I was speaking for myself. I didn't watch the video because I have already expressed my opinions to those that have my back when they posted similar videos and IN MY OPINION he's not a progressive...progressives CARE about 'people' not political bullshit. They don't smile and laugh when they post unfortunate realities, etc.

It was a jab Chester, not an ad hobbitem, regarding a ridiculous post. We can all be silly, I am all the time.

So, the real question is, Why did you post it? And I'm not going to watch it. Pretend political sentiments just really don't appeal to me.

[Chester]

So the study was a fraud after all?

Surgisphere: governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies

The World Health Organization and a number of national governments have changed their Covid-19 policies and treatments on the basis of flawed data from a little-known US healthcare analytics company, also calling into question the integrity of key studies published in some of the world’s most prestigious medical journals.

A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees appear to include a science fiction writer and an adult-content model, has provided data for multiple studies on Covid-19 co-authored by its chief executive, but has so far failed to adequately explain its data or methodology.

Data it claims to have legitimately obtained from more than a thousand hospitals worldwide formed the basis of scientific articles that have led to changes in Covid-19 treatment policies in Latin American countries. It was also behind a decision by the WHO and research institutes around the world to halt trials of the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine. On Wednesday, the WHO announced those trials would now resume.

Two of the world’s leading medical journals – the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine – published studies based on Surgisphere data. The studies were co-authored by the firm’s chief executive, Sapan Desai.

Late on Tuesday, after being approached by the Guardian, the Lancet released an “expression of concern” about its published study. The New England Journal of Medicine has also issued a similar notice.

An independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has now been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere because of “concerns that have been raised about the reliability of the database”.

The Guardian’s investigation has found:

A search of publicly available material suggests several of Surgisphere’s employees have little or no data or scientific background. An employee listed as a science editor appears to be a science fiction author and fantasy artist. Another employee listed as a marketing executive is an adult model and events hostess.

The company’s LinkedIn page has fewer than 100 followers and last week listed just six employees. This was changed to three employees as of Wednesday.

While Surgisphere claims to run one of the largest and fastest hospital databases in the world, it has almost no online presence. Its Twitter handle has fewer than 170 followers, with no posts between October 2017 and March 2020.

Until Monday, the “get in touch” link on Surgisphere’s homepage redirected to a WordPress template for a cryptocurrency website, raising questions about how hospitals could easily contact the company to join its database.

Desai has been named in three medical malpractice suits, unrelated to the Surgisphere database. In an interview with the Scientist, Desai previously described the allegations as “unfounded”.

In 2008, Desai launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website Indiegogo promoting a wearable “next generation human augmentation device that can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”. The device never came to fruition.

Desai’s Wikipedia page has been deleted following questions about Surgisphere and his history, first raised in 2010.

At a press conference on Wednesday, the WHO announced it would resume its global trial of hydroxychloroquine, after its data safety monitoring committee found there was no increased risk of death for Covid patients taking it.

The WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that all parts of the Solidarity trial, which is investigating a number of potential drug treatments, would go ahead. So far, more than 3,500 patients have been recruited to the trial in 35 countries.

“On the basis of the available mortality data, the members of the committee recommended that there are no reasons to modify the trial protocol,” said Tedros. “The executive group received this recommendation and endorsed continuation of all arms of the Solidarity trial, including hydroxychloroquine.”

Doubts over Lancet study

Questions surrounding Surgisphere have been growing in the medical community for the past few weeks.

On 22 May the Lancet published a blockbuster peer-reviewed study which found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine, which has been promoted by Donald Trump, was associated with a higher mortality rate in Covid-19 patients and increased heart problems.

Trump, much to the dismay of the scientific community, had publicly touted hydroxychloroquine as a “wonder drug” despite no evidence of its efficacy for treating Covid-19.

The Lancet study, which listed Desai as one of the co-authors, claimed to have analysed Surgisphere data collected from nearly 96,000 patients with Covid-19, admitted to 671 hospitals from their database of 1,200 hospitals around the world, who received hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination with antibiotics.

The negative findings made global news and prompted the WHO to halt the hydroxychloroquine arm of its global trials.

But only days later Guardian Australia revealed glaring errors in the Australian data included in the study. The study said researchers gained access to data through Surgisphere from five hospitals, recording 600 Australian Covid-19 patients and 73 Australian deaths as of 21 April.

But data from Johns Hopkins University shows only 67 deaths from Covid-19 had been recorded in Australia by 21 April. The number did not rise to 73 until 23 April. Desai said one Asian hospital had accidentally been included in the Australian data, leading to an overestimate of cases there. The Lancet published a small retraction related to the Australian findings after the Guardian’s story, its only amendment to the study so far.

The Guardian has since contacted five hospitals in Melbourne and two in Sydney, whose cooperation would have been essential for the Australian patient numbers in the database to be reached. All denied any role in such a database, and said they had never heard of Surgisphere. Desai did not respond to requests to comment on their statements.

Another study using the Surgisphere database, again co-authored by Desai, found the anti-parasite drug ivermectin reduced death rates in severely ill Covid-19 patients. It was published online in the Social Science Research Network e-library, before peer-review or publication in a medical journal, and prompted the Peruvian government to add ivermectin to its national Covid-19 therapeutic guidelines.

The New England Journal of Medicine also published a peer-reviewed Desai study based on Surgisphere data, which included data from Covid-19 patients from 169 hospitals in 11 countries in Asia, Europe and North America. It found common heart medications known as angiotensin-converting–enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers were not associated with a higher risk of harm in Covid-19 patients.

On Wednesday, the NEJM and the Lancet published an expression of concern about the hydroxychloroquine study, which listed respected vascular surgeon Mandeep Mehra as the lead author and Desai as co-author.

Lancet editor Richard Horton told the Guardian: “Given the questions raised about the reliability of the data gathered by Surgisphere, we have today issued an Expression of Concern, pending further investigation.

“An independent data audit is currently underway and we trust that this review, which should be completed within the next week, will tell us more about the status of the findings reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra and colleagues.”

Surgisphere ‘came out of nowhere’

One of the questions that has most baffled the scientific community is how Surgisphere, established by Desai in 2008 as a medical education company that published textbooks, became the owner of a powerful international database. That database, despite only being announced by Surgisphere recently, boasts access to data from 96,000 patients in 1,200 hospitals around the world.

When contacted by the Guardian, Desai said his company employed just 11 people. The employees listed on LinkedIn were recorded on the site as having joined Surgisphere only two months ago. Several did not appear to have a scientific or statistical background, but mention expertise in strategy, copywriting, leadership and acquisition.

Dr James Todaro, who runs MedicineUncensored, a website that publishes the results of hydroxychloroquine studies, said: “Surgisphere came out of nowhere to conduct perhaps the most influential global study in this pandemic in the matter of a few weeks.

“It doesn’t make sense,” he said. “It would require many more researchers than it claims to have for this expedient and [size] of multinational study to be possible.”

Desai told the Guardian: “Surgisphere has been in business since 2008. Our healthcare data analytics services started about the same time and have continued to grow since that time. We use a great deal of artificial intelligence and machine learning to automate this process as much as possible, which is the only way a task like this is even possible.”

It is not clear from the methodology in the studies that used Surgisphere data, or from the Surgisphere website itself, how the company was able to put in place data-sharing agreements from so many hospitals worldwide, including those with limited technology, and to reconcile different languages and coding systems, all while staying within the regulatory, data-protection and ethical rules of each country.

Desai said Surgisphere and its QuartzClinical content management system was part of a research collaboration initiated “several years ago”, though he did not specify when.

“Surgisphere serves as a data aggregator and performs data analysis on this data,” he said. “We are not responsible for the source data, thus the labor intensive task required for exporting the data from an Electronic Health Records, converting it into the format required by our data dictionary, and fully deidentifying the data is done by the healthcare partner.”

This appears to contradict the claim on the QuartzClinical website that it does all the work, and “successfully integrates your electronic health record, financial system, supply chain, and quality programs into one platform”. Desai did not explain this apparent contradiction when the Guardian put it to him.

Desai said the way Surgisphere obtained data was “always done in compliance with local laws and regulations. We never receive any protected health information or individually identifiable information.”

Peter Ellis, the chief data scientist of Nous Group, an international management consultancy that does data integration projects for government departments, expressed concern that Surgisphere database was “almost certainly a scam”.

“It is not something that any hospital could realistically do,” he said. “De-identifying is not just a matter of knocking off the patients’ names, it is a big and difficult process. I doubt hospitals even have capability to do it appropriately. It is the sort of thing national statistics agencies have whole teams working on, for years.”

“There’s no evidence online of [Surgisphere] having any analytical software earlier than a year ago. It takes months to get people to even look into joining these databases, it involves network review boards, security people, and management. It just doesn’t happen with a sign-up form and a conversation.”

None of the information from Desai’s database has yet been made public, including the names of any of the hospitals, despite the Lancet being among the many signatories to a statement on data-sharing for Covid-19 studies. The Lancet study is now disputed by 120 doctors.

When the Guardian put a detailed list of concerns to Desai about the database, the study findings and his background, he responded: “There continues to be a fundamental misunderstanding about what our system is and how it works”.

“There are also a number of inaccuracies and unrelated connections that you are trying to make with a clear bias toward attempting to discredit who we are and what we do,” he said. “We do not agree with your premise or the nature of what you have put together, and I am sad to see that what should have been a scientific discussion has been denigrated into this sort of discussion.”

‘The peak of human evolution’

An examination of Desai’s background found that the vascular surgeon has been named in three medical malpractice suits in the US, two of them filed in November 2019. In one case, a lawsuit filed by a patient, Joseph Vitagliano, accused Desai and Northwest Community Hospital in Illinois, where he worked until recently, of being “careless and negligent”, leading to permanent damage following surgery.

Northwest Community Hospital confirmed that Desai had been employed there since June 2016 but had voluntarily resigned on 10 February 2020 “for personal reasons”.

“Dr Desai’s clinical privileges with NCH were not suspended, revoked or otherwise limited by NCH,” a spokeswoman said. The hospital declined to comment on the malpractice suits. Desai said in the interview with the Scientist that he deemed any lawsuit against him to be “unfounded”.

Brigham and Women’s Hospital, the institution affiliated with the hydroxychloroquine study and its lead author, Mandeep Mehra, said in a statement: “Independent of Surgisphere, the remaining co-authors of the recent studies published in The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine have initiated independent reviews of the data used in both papers after learning of the concerns that have been raised about the reliability of the database”.

Mehra said he had routinely underscored the importance and value of randomised, clinical trials and that such trials were necessary before any conclusions could be reached. “I eagerly await word from the independent audits, the results of which will inform any further action,” he said.

Desai’s now-deleted Wikipedia page said he held a doctorate in law and a PhD in anatomy and cell biology, as well as his medical qualifications. A biography of Desai on a brochure for an international medical conference says he has held multiple physician leadership roles in clinical practice, and that he is “a certified lean six sigma master black belt”.

It is not the first time Desai has launched projects with ambitious claims. In 2008, he launched a crowdfunding campaign on the website indiegogo promoting a “next generation human augmentation device” called Neurodynamics Flow, which he said “can help you achieve what you never thought was possible”.

“With its sophisticated programming, optimal neural induction points, and tried and true results, Neurodynamics Flow allows you to rise to the peak of human evolution,” the description said. The device raised a few hundred dollars, and never eventuated.

Ellis, the chief data scientist of Nous Group, said it was unclear why Desai made such bold claims about his products given how likely it was that the global research community would scrutinise them.

“My first reaction is it was to draw attention to his firm, Ellis said. “But it seems really obvious that this would backfire.”

Today Prof Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health in the Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, said: “I welcome the statement from the Lancet, which follows a similar statement by the NEJM regarding a study by the same group on cardiovascular drugs and COVID-19.

“The very serious concerns being raised about the validity of the papers by Mehra et al need to be recognised and actioned urgently, and ought to bring about serious reflection on whether the quality of editorial and peer review during the pandemic has been adequate. Scientific publication must above all be rigorous and honest. In an emergency, these values are needed more than ever.”

[Chester]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/statu...campaign=12944

Tweeted by Jake Tappe:

The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine are today acknowledging serious questions about the data used in studies they published about the potentially damaging effects of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine to coronavirus patients... 1/

2/ Lancet: “We are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention... important scientific questions have been raised about data” in the paper...

3/ New England Journal of Medicine: “substantive concerns have been raised about the quality of the information in that database. We have asked the authors to provide evidence that the data are reliable.”

[Emil El Zapato]

Not surprisingly the hydroxychloroquine needs and will continue to be studied...business as usual:


Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), has generated a worldwide pandemic. The interruption of its spread depends on a combination of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions. Initial SARS-CoV-2 prevention includes social distancing, the use of face masks, environmental hygiene, and hand washing. Although the most important pharmacologic interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection are likely to be vaccines, the repurposing of established drugs for short-term prophylaxis is another, more immediate option.

Some researchers have promoted chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for the treatment and prevention of illness from a variety of microorganisms, including SARS-CoV.2 Hydroxychloroquine can inhibit replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.3 Some observational studies have suggested benefits of hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of Covid-19, whereas other treatment reports have described mixed results.

Boulware et al. now report in the Journal the results of a randomized trial testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis for Covid-19. This is described by the investigators as a “pragmatic” trial in which participants were recruited through social media and almost all data were reported by the participants. Adults who described a high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to someone with Covid-19 in their household or an occupational setting were provided hydroxychloroquine or placebo (by mail) within 4 days after the reported exposure, and before symptoms would be expected to develop. The authors enrolled 821 participants; an illness that was considered to be consistent with Covid-19 developed in 107 participants (13.0%) but was confirmed by polymerase-chain-reaction assay in less than 3% of the participants. The incidence of a new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]). Although participant-reported side effects were significantly more common in those receiving hydroxychloroquine (40.1%) than in those receiving placebo (16.8%), no serious adverse reactions were reported.

This trial has many limitations, acknowledged by the investigators. The trial methods did not allow consistent proof of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 or consistent laboratory confirmation that the symptom complex that was reported represented a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Indeed, the specificity of participant-reported Covid-19 symptoms is low, so it is hard to be certain how many participants in the trial actually had Covid-19. Adherence to the interventions could not be monitored, and participants reported less-than-perfect adherence, more notably in the group receiving hydroxychloroquine. In addition, those enrolled in the trial were younger (median age, 40 years) and had fewer coexisting conditions than persons in whom severe Covid-19 is most likely to develop, so enrollment of higher-risk participants might have yielded a different result.

The trial design raises questions about the expected prevention benefits of hydroxychloroquine. Studies of postexposure prophylaxis are intended to provide an intervention in the shortest possible time to prevent infection. In a small-animal model of SARS-CoV-2 infection, prevention of infection or more severe disease was observed only when the experimental antiviral agent was given before or shortly after exposure. In the current trial, the long delay between perceived exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the initiation of hydroxychloroquine (≥3 days in most participants) suggests that what was being assessed was prevention of symptoms or progression of Covid-19, rather than prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Drugs for the prevention of infections must have an excellent safety profile. When hydroxychloroquine was initially promoted as a possible solution to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the safety of the drug was emphasized. Under closer scrutiny, however, the potential for cardiac toxic effects and overall adverse outcomes have been emphasized, especially in persons with underlying coexisting conditions that increase the risk of severe Covid-19 Boulware et al. report frequent mild side effects of hydroxychloroquine, but cardiac toxic effects could not be assessed.

So, what are we to do with the results of this trial? The advocacy and widespread use of hydroxychloroquine seem to reflect a reasonable fear of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, it would appear that to some extent the media and social forces — rather than medical evidence — are driving clinical decisions and the global Covid-19 research agenda.10 On June 1, 2020, ClinicalTrials.gov listed a remarkable 203 Covid-19 trials with hydroxychloroquine, 60 of which were focused on prophylaxis. An important question is to what extent the article by Boulware et al. should affect planned or ongoing hydroxychloroquine trials. If postexposure prophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine does not prevent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (with recognition of the limitations of the trial under discussion), should other trials of postexposure prophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine continue unchanged? Do the participants in these trials need to be informed of these results? Do these trial results with respect to postexposure prophylaxis affect trials of preexposure prophylaxis with hydroxychloroquine, some of which are very large (e.g., the Healthcare Worker Exposure Response and Outcomes of Hydroxychloroquine [HERO-HCQ] trial, involving 15,000 health care workers; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04334148. opens in new tab)? The results reported by Boulware et al. are more provocative than definitive, suggesting that the potential prevention benefits of hydroxychloroquine remain to be determined.

- New England Journal of Medicine -