Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

[Emil El Zapato]

Where is the UK on the maps, I'm not seeing it?

Mike Adams was born pretty close to my hometown...Lawrence Kansas...oi whatever...Kansas University is there and they aren't notoriously conservative. For that title it goes to Kansas State University, home of the Aggies.


Why would he 'forget' the UK or seriously, I've been working today, I might be missing it (tired eyes)

I see he is noted for his position on the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster...I am an online acquaintance with the guy that wrote this book:



Between you and I, the guy is a peepee...wealthy and influential in the Houston, TX world...but he wrote a pretty good book.

[Dreamtimer]

The charts were sourced here. There is info on the UK.

[Emil El Zapato]

ok...thnx.

[Wind]

Common sense, where art thou?

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFp5QrHDVuQ

[Elen]

[Chris]

https://www.dw.com/en/can-a-tubercul...-19/a-53388220

Can a tuberculosis vaccine help combat COVID-19?

VPM1002 is the name of a new tuberculosis vaccine that could possibly help control the novel coronavirus. Several studies have been initiated and seem promising.

The tuberculosis vaccine called Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) has been around since the beginning of the last century. It is the only approved vaccine againsttuberculosis. To date, more than 4 million doses of it have been administered. The new VPM1002 is based on that vaccine.

Scientists at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology have developed the vaccine by genetically modifying BCG. Once the vaccine has successfully completed clinical testing, there are plans to use it against tuberculosis worldwide within the next few years.

Infection biologist Stefan Kaufmann was in charge of the development of VPM1002. Now, scientists are also testing the vaccine for its efficacy against COVID-19. Its precursor has already proven to be effective against other infections.

"In controlled studies, it has been shown that BCG can indeed protect against viral respiratory infections. BCG stimulates innate immunity, and this can be used to build a defense against viral respiratory infections. Based on this, we know that our new vaccine should have a similar effect," Kaufmann told DW.

This also gives hope with regard to COVID-19.

VPM1002 strengthens the immune system

Studies in mice show that VPM1002 activates the immune system and could thus significantly attenuate viral infections such as COVID-19.

A vaccine — or a pathogen, for that matter — always stimulates two types of defense by the body. One of these is innate or non-specific immunity. It can kill pathogens very quickly. The other is acquired or specific immunity.

"The interaction between these two immunities ensures the best possible immune response and the best possible endogenous defense," Kaufmann explains.

First hurdle overcome

ThePaul Ehrlich Institute has already approved the phase III clinical trial for VPM1002 against COVID-19. It is being conducted at various German hospitals, including the Hannover Medical School (MHH).

As of the beginning of May, scientists have been testing whether the new tuberculosis vaccine activates the immune system in a non-specific way.

"This should help to alleviate the severe progression of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19," Jacobus Bosch tells DW. He is one of the scientists in the team headed by Professor Christoph Schindler, who is lead author of the study. It focuses on the vaccine's effect as a possible agent against COVID-19.

"The new tuberculosis vaccine VPM 1002 will be tested in Hanover exclusively for its efficacy in the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic situation," says Bosch.

The first nationwide study involves 1,000 test persons. They all work in the medical field and are therefore particularly exposed to a possible infection.

"In a further study, we plan to investigate the efficacy of the improved tuberculosis vaccine VPM1002 in people over the age of 60. The question here is whether VPM1002 can effectively protect this age group, which is currently particularly at risk," the study's director, Schindler, explains.

The second study will involve 2,000 volunteers from all over Germany

VPM1002 as bridging technology

Even if the test results with VPM1002 are positive, Stefan Kaufmann says, further research on a special coronavirus vaccine is still necessary. But if its effects are successful enough, VPM1002 could be produced in large quantities within a short period of time, thus bridging the time until an effective COVID-19 vaccine is found.

"We're not talking about millions, but about 10 to 100 million doses in a short time. This is also very important, because the tuberculosis vaccine BCG is quite scarce, and the World Health Organization is now concerned that infants in countries with TB will not be able to be vaccinated," Kaufmann says.

India is the most likely production location. The Serum Institute of India has been licensed to produce the VPM1002 vaccine. The company is the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world and already has facilities ready for production.

On new paths

The tuberculosis vaccine BCG is well-established and has long ensured that tuberculosis takes a milder course. Children in the eastern German states and in eastern Europe have received it. Today, it is still administered mainly in Africa and Asia in the fight against tuberculosis. In some of these regions, there seem to have been very few cases of COVID-19 so far.

"When the COVID-19 crisis emerged, some scientists looked directly at whether COVID risks were lower in countries where BCG vaccination is mandatory, i.e., whether there were fewer cases of disease than in countries without BCG vaccination. And, indeed, a connection was found here," says Kaufmann.

Cautious confidence

Nevertheless, he is cautious in his interpretation of these studies: "These are studies comparing countries that differ from one another in many ways. So it can't necessarily be attributed to the fact that there has been a compulsory BCG vaccination." But he said the findings provided an incentive to examine the matter further.

The scientists in Hanover are also confident. "We think this new VMP1002 tuberculosis vaccine is a promising approach," says Bosch. "The vaccine should improve the human body's non-specific immune response and thus be effective against SARS-CoV-2 viruses, but we will have to wait for the results of the clinical trials."

And there are not only the studies in Germany or in India: Worldwide research is in full swing — just like the virus.

[Wind]

Some statistical data here.

Which countries do best in beating COVID-19

[Emil El Zapato]

I noticed Ecuador was way down...I think that's because everyone is dead.

New perspective: The map between the Spanish flu and the Covid might be enlightening and fodder for everyone to go crazy. The deniers and the panicky, as well as everyone in between.

[Emil El Zapato]

My company (Houston, TX) just went work from home indefinitely. The Global Human Resources did a short video on the announcement.

Synchronicity or Coincidence? The video had a background of my favorite picture of all time: San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge.

[Chris]

Just saw this posted over at Spiritual Forums, by one of the moderators. So sad, this pandemic is really taking its toll:

I found out today that my friend passed away on Thursday she went into hospital with health problems, whilst there she caught coronavirus and she passed away. she was on here as Crystalseer.
to me she was Molly she was 63 year old,
Rip molly you are free now

[Dreamtimer]

Here's some valuable perspective:

[Emil El Zapato]

Well, there you go, life...one of those things that make you go, hmm...

[Chris]

The situation in Mexico is getting out of control.

Sky News reports that the real death toll is at least five times higher than the official figure. Probably a conservative estimate, given morgues overflowing with dead bodies, mass graves and incinerations.

https://news.sky.com/story/mexico-ci...finds-11987235

[Emil El Zapato]

I wasn't able to view the site, Chris, I already get too much junk mail...I'll find another source...thanks for the post

[Chris]

I wasn't able to view the site, Chris, I already get too much junk mail...I'll find another source...thanks for the post

Here it is:

Coronavirus: Morgues and storage rooms are full of bodies. The true death toll in Mexico City is staggering

The number of people dying from the coronavirus pandemic in Mexico is five times higher than official government figures, according to health department insiders.

A Sky News investigations team working in the country's capital Mexico City has documented cremations and funerals and gained access to morgues and storage rooms full of bodies - all indicate the official data is wrong.

In much of Mexico City, the second largest city in Latin America, there is virtually no social distancing, with open air markets and some businesses operating normally, despite the coronavirus pandemic.

The government claims that the virus curve has been flattened and that there will be a dramatic drop off in virus related deaths in the coming days.

In a recent briefing, the country's president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador told the nation: "What the world knows about Mexico is that we are taming the pandemic, and we are basically doing this because Mexican people are making a conscious effort."

But that has been dismissed by many dealing with the crisis as incorrect.

An official within the government, but speaking anonymously, confirms the official figures are undercounting the actual mortality rate by a factor of at least five.

Senior private sector medical specialists have told Sky News that they warned the government of the impending epidemic in January but were told that there was "nothing the government can do".

It has fuelled speculation among people familiar with the true figures that the government is going to try to tough out the virus spread and deal with the fallout later.

Failing to publish accurate death rates appears to be part of a strategy of containing panic in the worst hit poorer parts of Mexico City, which has an unofficial population of more than 30 million people and endemic poverty.

As part of its investigation, Sky News has collated mortality figures and contacted or visited dozens of hospitals, crematoria and funeral parlours.

With the help of staff, Sky News has accessed multiple hospital morgues and filmed rooms filled with bodies in bodybags, lying on gurneys or even stacked on wooden pallets because the morgue fridges are already full.

There is currently a three-day backlog for cremation at every public crematorium in the city and crematorium workers in recent days have indicated that more burials will have to take place because burning capacity is overwhelmed.

Black smoke billows out over cemeteries as the ovens are cremating on an industrial level in the city but the bodies don't stop coming.

In fact, the ovens simply cannot cope and there are regular reports of breakdowns only adding to the backlog.

In full hazmat suits, crematorium staff are working around the clock bringing bodies to huge ovens for disposal.

Outside, the coffins that delivered COVID-19 victims are piled up waiting to be destroyed.

It was early morning when we visited the site but there were already a lot of coffins waiting to be removed.

Staff said the coffins are removed every day ostensibly for destruction. But there is no independent verification of that, raising the spectre of COVID-19 coffins being reused.

In one hospital the autopsy lab is being used to store bodies in bags. The examination tables are redundant, surrounded by bodies. There is no room left in the hospital's official morgue facilities.

At another hospital, we were taken into one of three storerooms workers said were used to keep the bodies. We watched as a funeral parlour worker had to pick through corpses piled onto a wooden pallet to find the tag for the right body he had been ordered to remove for cremation.

None of the temporary morgues in the hospitals were refrigerated and the workers confirmed all the bodies were considered to be COVID-19 cases.

Outside one hospital on a main road, we filmed a funeral director as he stopped his car and opened the rear door of the vehicle.

He was joined by a family member of the deceased person being transported, and together they removed the coffin lid and tore aside what appeared to be a plastic sheet to expose the face of the corpse.

He told us later the family member wanted to confirm the deceased as his father.

Such is the distrust in the whole system and the government's response, families want to visually confirm that it is their relative they are cremating.

Throughout the whole identification process neither the director nor the family member wore masks, gloves or goggles, apparently oblivious to the danger of exposure to an infected corpse.

Sky News analysis of the data from 30 crematoria across Mexico City shows that each one is disposing of between 18 and 22 bodies each day, with a three-day backlog.

Taking an average number of 20 cremations, Sky has calculated the total number of cremations every day is 600. This figure does not include other crematoria or burials.

The urban area of Mexico City spans over two federal entities - Mexico City and the state of Mexico. Because of this, in order to work out the official figure for how many people have died, the figures for the two entities need to be added together.

Government figures show that the average number of people who die every day in Mexico City in May is 189 and (averaged out over the last five years for which figures are available, 2014-18) and the number for the state of Mexico is 185. That makes a total average daily deaths of 374.

That means there are at least 226 excess deaths occurring every day in early May, with most probably down to coronavirus.

In fact, crematorium sources told Sky News that 80-90% of the deaths they are having to deal with are due to COVID-19.

Official government data shows that Mexico City and the state of Mexico has had 1,326 COVID-19 deaths in total, throughout the entire duration of the pandemic.

In fact, the average number of daily COVID-1- linked deaths in Mexico City and the state of Mexico in May so far (up to 12 May), according to the government, is just 34.

Assuming 80% of the excess deaths dealt with by crematoria are due to coronavirus, Sky's analysis suggests the government's official figure is just 19% of the true number of COVID-19 deaths in the Mexican capital and the actual figure is around five times higher than the health department's website would indicate - the same amount we were told by our source.

Sky News has asked the government to explain the disparity in the numbers. They are yet to respond to our request.

The point is, people are continuing to die.

For family members, entry to the crematorium in Iztapalapa, one of the hardest-hit boroughs in Mexico City, is strictly limited to five people. The rest of the family gather in groups at the gate waiting for the urn carrying the remains to be brought out.

This is the desperate human face of this tragedy.

Old and young in tears, unable to properly say goodbye, unable to attend the final service.

We spoke to one man, who asked to be called Carlos, waiting for his sister outside the cemetery. They were there to collect the remains of her husband who died after experiencing "flu-like symptoms" followed by trouble breathing.

He didn't believe a word the government says.

"They're obviously lying," he said. "Here everything is a mess, they are not going to give you exact numbers, and I am not just talking about Mexico City, but the entire country. They won't give you exact numbers here."

The number of people being cremated is staggering, as is the volume of hearses and traffic around the crematoria. The queues are endless.

Families say they are taken aback by the number of people dying and believe that ignorance, stigma and the government's failure to publish the real numbers has left Mexico in denial of the pandemic.

Javier Maranon, who was waiting with his family for the remains of the family's matriarch Maria who died of COVID-19 this week, told us: "People don't understand because there are many people who still keep going out without a face mask on, they keep playing in the parks.

"But the government has the responsibility to give real numbers, real figures, so that people are informed of what is going on, that there are many cases.

"But if there are people who don't want to understand, then that would be on that person, because the government cannot be scolding each person. But it is extremely important."

The Mexico outbreak is following the same trends seen across the globe.

The upward curve of death looks set to rocket, the health service can't cope and social distancing, let alone lockdown, is largely being ignored in Mexico City.

Short of a vaccine or a miracle, the effect on this society and this city could be utterly catastrophic.