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Thread: Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

  1. #646
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    Another mystery whittled down to a 50/50 tossup:

    If Trump does not get infected now, COVID-19 is either a hoax or he is demon spawn. I don't wish him any harm but this will be resolved in one fashion or another.
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  3. #647
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    yes, it is tough, Chris
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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    My son has had to do his job and the job of several others over the last couple months. They are slowly bringing people back in. The challenge is that many of the folks who work under his supervision are people with disabilities and are therefore vulnerable. They have to be extra careful.

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  7. #649
    Senior Member United States Chester's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    I really tire of this pandemic denialist bullshit.

    You can deny reality all you want it will still kick you up the arse.

    I just hope you and your ilk will come to your senses before it's too late.

    As a side note, this seems to be coming mostly from the USA. I simply don't hear this denialism to the same extent coming from anywhere else. I try not to get on the usual US-bashing bandwagon, but that country has some serious problems with public education and just the general knowledge of the populace. It seems that many Americans are into denial, even when an issue is right at their doorstep, whether it's mass shootings, the healthcare racket, climate change, evolution, the efficacy and usefulness of vaccines, their president, or this Covid-19 pandemic. It's time to wise up guys, the rest of the world is quickly losing any vestige of residual respect it may have had for you.
    "Something" is suggested in the poster, Chris's mis-identification and then mischaracterization of the post he quote which I authored.

    No "denial" of a "health anomaly" has been conveyed by anything I have posted and so the poster named Chris appears "compromised" in some way only he may have need to figure out.

    Please, do not mis-characterize the words I write on this forum. That is a loathsome thing to do.
    All the above is all and only my opinion. It may contain some sharing of components of my current operating strategy and some foundational components of my current world view - all subject to change and not meant to be true for anyone else regardless of how I phrase it.

    It's just a ride

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGD...vgBsCHmlC13jOg

    https://www.facebook.com/samhunter57

    http://merlynagain.blogspot.com/

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  9. #650
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    Could you please clarify, Chester, exactly what the scam is that you are referring to?

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  11. #651
    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    I would have a request towards some of my fellow totters here.

    This is a thread for the serious discussion of the Sars-Cov-2 coronavirus and the implications for the spread of it, as well as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. If you think this pandemic is a hoax, or that the virus does not exist or that it is caused by 5G, may I suggest that you start your own separate thread about it. You obviously have the right to your own opinion, but those of us who think this is a real pandemic caused by an actual virus also have the right to ignore your opinion, hence it should go into its own thread.

    In fact, the mods may want to move such posts and links into its own thread, but it's just a suggestion.
    At this point, there is already too much denialism and off-topic stuff interwoven with this thread to be able to move it over to another thread without breaking continuity, but I agree with you that the denialists and knee-jerk conspiracy theorists should from here on reserve their stuff for another thread and leave this one alone.

    Anything off-topic, denialist or non-/pseudo-scientific will henceforth be parked on another thread ─ which will sit under the Proven Hoaxes & Misinformation category ─ and the offenders will be banned from this thread.


    Just as a reminder, I posted the above on this thread here at 09:54 on the 30th of March 2020. And I will add that there were two people who didn't seem to want to heed that warning, and who have since then subsequently been banned from this thread, while a third person insisted on walking the thin line for a couple of days but has so far not been banned from the thread yet.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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  13. #652
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    As a general statement I'll say that we all know there is fake or incomplete reporting. That doesn't mean we're all simpletons who are being scammed.

    There is way more information out there than CBS, Fox News, etc. Way more. It's possible to get information available on the public record in order to determine what is going on and how things are changing day by day. It's also possible to communicate directly with people on the front lines.

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    This article from April 17 covers how this novel coronavirus can affect various parts of the body, not just the lungs.

    How Does Coronavirus Kill? Clinicians Trace a Ferocious Rampage Through the Body, from Brain to Toes.

    On rounds in a 20-bed intensive care unit one recent day, physician Joshua Denson assessed two patients with seizures, many with respiratory failure and others whose kidneys were on a dangerous downhill slide. Days earlier, his rounds had been interrupted as his team tried, and failed, to resuscitate a young woman whose heart had stopped. All shared one thing, says Denson, a pulmonary and critical care physician at the Tulane University School of Medicine. “They are all COVID positive.”

    As the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 surges past 2.2 million globally and deaths surpass 150,000, clinicians and pathologists are struggling to understand the damage wrought by the coronavirus as it tears through the body. They are realizing that although the lungs are ground zero, its reach can extend to many organs including the heart and blood vessels, kidneys, gut, and brain.

    What follows is a snapshot of the fast-evolving understanding of how the virus attacks cells around the body, especially in the roughly 5% of patients who become critically ill. Despite the more than 1000 papers now spilling into journals and onto preprint servers every week, a clear picture is elusive, as the virus acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.

    [The virus] finds a welcome home in the lining of the nose, according to a preprint from scientists at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and elsewhere. They found that cells there are rich in a cell-surface receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Throughout the body, the presence of ACE2, which normally helps regulate blood pressure, marks tissues vulnerable to infection, because the virus requires that receptor to enter a cell. Once inside, the virus hijacks the cell’s machinery, making myriad copies of itself and invading new cells.

    As the virus multiplies, an infected person may shed copious amounts of it, especially during the first week or so. Symptoms may be absent at this point. Or the virus’ new victim may develop a fever, dry cough, sore throat, loss of smell and taste, or head and body aches.

    If the immune system doesn’t beat back SARS-CoV-2 during this initial phase, the virus then marches down the windpipe to attack the lungs, where it can turn deadly

    [Some] deteriorate, often quite suddenly, developing a condition called acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Oxygen levels in their blood plummet and they struggle ever harder to breathe. On x-rays and computed tomography scans, their lungs are riddled with white opacities where black space—air—should be. Commonly, these patients end up on ventilators. Many die. Autopsies show their alveoli became stuffed with fluid, white blood cells, mucus, and the detritus of destroyed lung cells.

    Some clinicians suspect the driving force in many gravely ill patients’ downhill trajectories is a disastrous overreaction of the immune system known as a “cytokine storm,” which other viral infections are known to trigger.

    [I]mmune cells start to attack healthy tissues. Blood vessels leak, blood pressure drops, clots form, and catastrophic organ failure can ensue.

    A 25 March paper in JAMA Cardiology documented heart damage in nearly 20% of patients out of 416 hospitalized for COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. In another Wuhan study, 44% of 36 patients admitted to the ICU had arrhythmias.

    Among 184 COVID-19 patients in a Dutch ICU, 38% had blood that clotted abnormally, and almost one-third already had clots, according to a 10 April paper in Thrombosis Research. Blood clots can break apart and land in the lungs, blocking vital arteries—a condition known as pulmonary embolism, which has reportedly killed COVID-19 patients. Clots from arteries can also lodge in the brain, causing stroke.

    “One theory is that the virus affects the vascular biology and that’s why we see these really low oxygen levels,” Levitt says.

    If COVID-19 targets blood vessels, that could also help explain why patients with pre-existing damage to those vessels, for example from diabetes and high blood pressure, face higher risk of serious disease. Recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data on hospitalized patients in 14 U.S. states found that about one-third had chronic lung disease—but nearly as many had diabetes, and fully half had pre-existing high blood pressure.

    Mangalmurti says she has been “shocked by the fact that we don’t have a huge number of asthmatics” or patients with other respiratory diseases in HUP’s ICU. “It’s very striking to us that risk factors seem to be vascular: diabetes, obesity, age, hypertension.”

    Scientists are struggling to understand exactly what causes the cardiovascular damage. The virus may directly attack the lining of the heart and blood vessels, which, like the nose and alveoli, are rich in ACE2 receptors. Or perhaps lack of oxygen, due to the chaos in the lungs, damages blood vessels. Or a cytokine storm could ravage the heart as it does other organs.

    “If these folks are not dying of lung failure, they’re dying of renal failure,” says neurologist Jennifer Frontera of New York University’s Langone Medical Center, which has treated thousands of COVID-19 patients.

    According to one preprint, 27% of 85 hospitalized patients in Wuhan had kidney failure. Another reported that 59% of nearly 200 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in China’s Hubei and Sichuan provinces had protein in their urine, and 44% had blood; both suggest kidney damage. Those with acute kidney injury (AKI), were more than five times as likely to die as COVID-19 patients without it, the same Chinese preprint reported.

    Another striking set of symptoms in COVID-19 patients centers on the brain and central nervous system.

    Frontera has seen patients with the brain inflammation encephalitis, with seizures, and with a “sympathetic storm,” a hyperreaction of the sympathetic nervous system that causes seizurelike symptoms and is most common after a traumatic brain injury. Some people with COVID-19 briefly lose consciousness. Others have strokes. Many report losing their sense of smell. And Frontera and others wonder whether in some cases, infection depresses the brain stem reflex that senses oxygen starvation.

    On 3 April, a case study in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, from a team in Japan, reported traces of new coronavirus in the cerebrospinal fluid of a COVID-19 patient who developed meningitis and encephalitis, suggesting it, too, can penetrate the central nervous system.

    In early March, a 71-year-old Michigan woman returned from a Nile River cruise with bloody diarrhea, vomiting, and abdominal pain. Initially doctors suspected she had a common stomach bug, such as Salmonella. But after she developed a cough, doctors took a nasal swab and found her positive for the novel coronavirus. A stool sample positive for viral RNA, as well as signs of colon injury seen in an endoscopy, pointed to a gastrointestinal (GI) infection with the coronavirus, according to a paper posted online in The American Journal of Gastroenterology (AJG).

    Recent reports suggest up to half of patients, averaging about 20% across studies, experience diarrhea...GI symptoms aren’t on CDC’s list of COVID-19 symptoms, which could cause some COVID-19 cases to go undetected, Spiegel and others say. “If you mainly have fever and diarrhea, you won’t be tested for COVID”



    We have a long way to go in our understanding of this disease and how to fight it. Working together will bring strength. Denial will bring more death.

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  17. #654
    Senior Member Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    The governors have taken varied approaches, some better than others. Public health is a huge part of both their mandate and the federal mandate. Public health has always been a crucial factor in how this country is governed. Life, Liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That is not qualified to be at the expense of our fellow Americans.

    Tyranny is a very strong word to use in this context in terms of actions which have been taken in America.
    There's a very fine line between public health, and rescinding people's Constitutional rights. Here's one approach that should at least be listened to:
    The unexamined life is not worth living.

    Socrates

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    Rescinding. Another strong word. I'm not sure that's appropriate here (as in, this context). I'll watch the video this evening.

    Rescinding would need to be an official act. It's very strange that the same folks who support a President who says that he has absolute power are worried about governors somehow rescinding their Constitutional rights. Very strange indeed.
    Last edited by Dreamtimer, 9th May 2020 at 14:22. Reason: clarity, hopefully

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    This officer makes great points. I have no problem with anything he says.

    I wonder if he has made the same sorts of pleas when it comes to violations of the Constitutional rights of minorities. I'll check out his channel and see.

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    Excellent analysis by Mike Adams on what we can expect in the coming months and the sources and maths all check out:

    https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-05-...-rate-cfr.html

    Coronavirus Case Fatality Rate (CFR) now over 18% for France, 14% for Italy, 12% for Spain, 10% for Mexico and so far 6% for the USA… orders of magnitude higher than the regular flu

    The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for the coronavirus is currently tracking at over 18% for France, over 16% for Belgium, 14% for Italy, nearly 12% for Spain, 10% for Mexico, about 7% for Canada and is currently at 6% for the USA, according to a comprehensive chart offered by OurWorldInData.org.

    The chart, shown below, reveals how the coronavirus is orders of magnitude more deadly than the regular flu, which has a Case Fatality Rate (CFR) below 0.1%, meaning fewer than 1 in 1,000 people who are confirmed and diagnosed with the regular flu end up dying from it. This is confirmed by CDC statistics.

    DEFINITIONS: The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the ratio of deaths to the number of people who are symptomatic and diagnosed with the illness. The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is the ratio of deaths to the number of people who have been infected, even if they never showed symptoms. The IFR for the coronavirus is unreliable because of all the false positives stemming from faulty antibody test kits manufactured in China, which are almost certainly intentionally designed to show high numbers of false positives in order to sow confusion and complacency across America.

    The pro-Trump media has consistently tried to conflate the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of the coronavirus with the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of the regular flu, to try to dishonestly claim that “the coronavirus is no more dangerous than the flu.” Such claims are either the result of 1) Intellectually dishonest people who are trying to downplay the coronavirus for political reasons, or 2) Mathematically illiterate people who don’t know how fractions work.

    At Natural News, we have consistently and repeatedly warned that the coronavirus is far more dangerous than the regular flu, and we’ve warned about the complacency being pushed by conservative and independent media, which will result in a second wave of exploding coronavirus cases across the USA. Our warnings have been drowned out by mathematically illiterate (or intellectually dishonest) “journalists” who are mostly pro-Trump, conservative pundits who are right now inadvertently setting up President Trump to be utterly destroyed by the second wave of infections and deaths that are coming.

    Here’s the current tracking of Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of the coronavirus. Note that these numbers are all low because they assume every person confirmed to have the coronavirus is symptomatic, which isn’t the case at all. In reality, for an accurate CFR analysis, we would have to multiply all the numbers shown here by a factor of something in the neighborhood of 1.4. Note that the horizontal axis on this chart is logarithmic. If you’re not sure what logarithmic means, Fox News has a job opening for you in their science news division.



    If the Case Fatality Rate for the regular flu were to be depicted on this chart, it would be shown almost touching the bottom line of the chart, at just 0.096% (not even 0.1%, but lower).

    Thus, even based on the numbers shown here, the CFR of the coronavirus is at least two orders of magnitude higher than the reagular flu for many countries, including Spain, Italy, France, Hungary, Mexico, etc.

    The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for the coronavirus is entirely unknown because of the problem of huge numbers of false positives from bogus antibody test kits. But the IFR for the regular flu is 0.025%, or about 1 in 4,000 people dying after getting infected.

    We don’t trust “infection” numbers for the coronavirus because there are way too many false positives from the bad testing kits that were all approved by the FDA in a mad rush, even when most of them were so bad they would flag false positives from testing papayas and other fresh fruit.

    Global analysis of excess mortalities shows that coronavirus deaths are being significantly under-counted

    The fact that global coronavirus deaths have been under counted by a substantial amount — as detailed in an exhaustive Financial Times review of excess mortalities — indicates the real death toll from covid-19 is at least 50% higher than official numbers (and may be up to 60% higher).

    This the 6% Case Fatality Rate for the coronavirus in the United States is really more like 9-10%. The following FT chart shows the excess deaths from any cause for NYC. Note that it’s a nearly 300% increase in deaths from any cause, regardless of what’s shown on death certificates. This obliterated the denialism argument that claims nobody is really dying from the coronavirus, and that it’s all just people who would have died anyway:



    We’ve separately analyzed the numbers over the last several months, confirming that the real CFR for the coronavirus in the United States really is closer to 10%, which means that 1 in 10 people who are diagnosed and symptomatic end up dying from the infection.

    The upshot of all this is that as US states begin to reopen their economies and the American masses who have been lied to by Fox News, conservative media and pro-Trump independent media begin to spill into the restaurants, stores and barber shops, a second wave of infections and deaths will once again resume. And the results will be catastrophic for the simple reason that this isn’t just the flu, and it never was.

    We’ve detailed the expected progression in this article covering the “10 Stage of Coronavirus.”

    Here’s a graphic representation of the 10 stages, five at a time:



    For the second half of 2020, and part of 2021:



    As you can see from this global chart of confirmed covid-19 deaths, we haven’t stopped the pandemic, we’ve only paused it. The exponential explosion has simply been “flattened” but not crushed. Deaths are moving sideways during the lockdown, which means once the lockdowns are ended alongside widespread complacency, the coronavirus will simply resume its exponential growth once again. This chart shows daily deaths:



    As anyone who can do math can readily see, unless something dramatically changes course soon, Trump will be utterly destroyed by October and have virtually no chance of winning re-election. Although this is not an official projection, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see 300,000+ deaths in America by election day. And if all precautions are dropped across that country, that number would be in the millions.

    Trump’s own supporters are making sure he goes down in flames by spreading the coronavirus through complacency and stupidity
    The mostly pro-Trump indy media outlets claiming the lockdowns were never necessary have now fatally misinformed their own readers, and the lockdowns will be lifted with complacency and denialism. Mark Cuban has already discovered that 96% of Texas businesses are failing to comply with the basic precautions mandated by the state. This means Texas will become a new hub of coronavirus spread, and it will devastate Houston, Dallas / Ft. Worth and San Antonio, not to mention Austin and other cities.

    As we have repeatedly warned, mathematical illiteracy will lead to catastrophe when it comes to a genetically engineered bioweapon that spreads along an exponential model. Since very few human beings are able to grasp exponential events, the vast majority of people today are vastly underestimating the severity and danger of this virus, and they may be destroyed by it.

    There’s no question that if the complacency continues, Trump’s credibility will be destroyed long before the election. It turns out that the coronavirus is the one challenge that Trump can’t talk his way out of. You can bullsh#t the world when it comes to celebrity status or claims of financial assets, but you can’t bullsh#t the coronavirus.

    To the coronavirus, Trump just looks like another piece of human tissue to feed upon.

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  25. #658
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    My Venezuelan next door neighbor has been subdued this week, I'm wondering if his Ecuadoran wife is losing people in her home country. Looks like they are literally piling up the bodies.
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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    Quote Originally posted by NotAPretender View Post
    My Venezuelan next door neighbor has been subdued this week, I'm wondering if his Ecuadoran wife is losing people in her home country. Looks like they are literally piling up the bodies.
    Yes, tropical South America is becoming the new epicentre. Bodies of dead people are washing up on the beaches of Ecuador. In the Amazon region of Brazil entire tribes are being wiped out and the bodies are buried three deep in Manaus, the capital and only major city of Amazonas. Tribal people in particular have no immunity against infectious diseases and it seems we are seeing a repeat of the smallpox epidemic that wiped out most of the native population of the Americas. It is absolutely appalling.

    Here in Central Europe that pandemic has been extremely subdued, though Austria was a partial exception with Tyrol becoming an epicentre. Most medical experts now think this is because of the mandatory BCG-vaccination programmes that have been in place since the late forties. These vaccines seem to provide at least partial immunity to covid.
    Last edited by Chris, 10th May 2020 at 20:02.

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    I had to look up BCG. Interesting.

    How much contact do the tribes in Brazil have with the other folks? I guess enough to spread the virus. So sad. I can't imagine seeing bodies wash up on beaches.

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