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Thread: Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

  1. #31
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    Speculation from Taiwan News that the real (unofficial) death toll has already passed 25.000, days ago. This is consistent with the reports we are getting about people dropping like flies and crematoria unable to cope with the amount of infected corpses. Keep in mind, only a small minority of the sick and dying are officially classified as having contracted the coronavirus, for most, a different reason, such as pneumonia or seasonal flu will be listed on their death certificates.

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

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  3. #32
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    Not much happening on the Coronavirus front. No news may be good news, then again it could be the calm before the storm.

    Here's where we stand at the moment:

    - Hong Kong completely sealed its border with China despite displeasure by the CCP leadership, showing how serious they think the situation is

    - About the only land border still open to Chinese fleeing the outbreak is with Vietnam and Laos. Chinese are queuing up by their thousands hoping to leave the country before the border is permanently shut. Expect the Virus to spread in the direction of South East Asia in the coming weeks. Thailand and Singapore already have dozens of cases and human-to-human transmission is also happening.

    - Taiwan has closed its borders to visitors from Hong Kong and Macau, clearly worried that those cities are also widely infected now.

    - The Quarantine has now been extended to coastal cities south of Shanghai, covering 110 million people overall.

    - People in Hong Kong are now dropping dead on the street, without warning, just like in mainland China. The sudden onset of deaths and serious symptoms indicates an engineered bioweapon and not a naturally occurring virus

    - Multiple Independent sources and experts have verified that this is indeed a virus that has been genetically engineered in a lab. There is some speculation that the original specimen was stolen from a Canadian bioweapons lab and further enhanced in Wuhan, China's only level 4 biodefense facility, which is equipped to work with this dangerous pathogen.

    - The genetic sequencing shows signs of tampering, some sequences seem to have been spliced from the HIV virus, others from seasonal influenza, whereas the bulk of the virus, about 79 percent is identical to SARS

    - With new info coming out about the actual death rate, rather than what is reported, this seems to be similar to SARS, at about 11 percent

    - The transmission rate is around 83 percent, so five in six people who are exposed to it, get it

    - as with SARS, Asian males are more susceptible to the virus than others, so far all Caucasians who got it recovered with relatively mild symptoms. Genetic differences ensure that asian males are around five times more likely to get the virus and to suffer complications and death than other populations.

    - as is the protocol with bioweapons development, a vaccine and even a treatment is probably already available to the Chinese government, but they chose not to reveal it for whatever reason, most likely to cover themselves in the eye of their own population

    - A global pandemic is now a certainty, but the bulk of it should be concentrated in the East Asia region, for genetic and geographical reasons

    - The rest of the world could well get lucky and escape the brunt of it, however global supply chains, tourism, travel, etc are already being disrupted. It is likely that world trade and travel, manufacturing and tourism will grind to a halt for several months. I can personally confirm that it is already impossible to get needed parts from China and manufacturers who rely on Chinese suppliers to any extent have to shut down their plants whilst the crisis passes. Hyundai in South Korea has already ceased production in all of its South Korean factories for this reason.

    - A global recession lasting several months is inevitable and may have already started. All Chinese factories shut down for Lunar New Year and 80 percent have not reopened yet. This will cause cascading failures in the global supply chain and probably quite a few bankruptcies. Most suppliers rely on just-in-time deliveries and missing deadlines can result in huge penalties, which can put a whole army of companies out of business.

    Those are just some of the more salient points, will update as more info comes in.

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  5. #33
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    Just a link to easily find The Epoch Times' coronavirus reporting, which is by far the best and most accurate among all mainstream news sources. This is because they aren't beholden to the CCP and have plenty of inside sources on the ground as well as inside the Chinese Government. It helps that they speak Mandarin...

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/c-coronavirus-outbreak

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  7. #34
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    This was originally posted on Project Camelot back in 2010, but I think it is important to mention it here, given the latest developments around the Wuhan coronavirus:

    http://projectcamelotproductions.com...n-mission.html

    Thereafter, or concurrent, biological weapons would be used against the Chinese population. This would then set of another chain of events that would collapse the whole Chinese political and social infrastructure. This was mentioned as: Disease, followed by wide spread food shortages, followed by mass starvation. Somehow, this would then cause the Chinese military to attack eastern Russia. The biological agents were described as being flu like and would spread like wild fire. It shocks and sickens me to describe these events. It shocks me even more to know that plausible events are being manipulated to cause the extinction of a whole part of the human race.

    The evidence was clear. There does indeed exist a Timeline for future conflict that this country, the UK, was using this as some sort of world government business plan and many millions would die as a result. The plan is openly described in these circles as the Anglo Saxon Mission.
    Biological weapons will be deployed against China. ‘China will catch a cold’.
    Last edited by Chris, 9th February 2020 at 00:04.

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  9. #35
    Senior Member NotAPretender's Avatar
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    Well, that is indeed interesting...
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  11. #36
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    Unfortunately, the Anglo-Saxon elite being behind this attack looks like an increasingly likely explanation for what is happening in China and soon in the rest of Asia. The situation in Singapore is already dire and it is thousands of miles from China. In other Asian countries, the disease is probably spreading undetected, which will become obvious in a couple of weeks.

    An engineered virus that targets Asian males specifically, released in the middle of China just in time for the New Year mass migration to spread it around hardly seems like a coincidence. I really think that this was a deliberate act of war, indeed Genocide, against the Chinese people, but the consequences will be global. I know it sounds crazy. Yet, that is the most likely explanation given what we know about this virus. I am also disturbed by the noises coming out of the Trump administration, they seemed almost triumphant as the news broke and made statements like this is going to be great for America. How exactly?

    As for Britain, I noticed, that BA was the first major airline to cancel all flights to China and the UK was the first country to advise ALL of its citizens to leave China immediately, all 300.000 of them. That is a massive number and these orders were issued well before it became obvious how widespread the disease is and how it is disrupting the country. What do the British know that they're not telling the rest of the world, given Boris's close relationship with Trump?

    I have always assumed that a major war with China was inevitable, which I expected would take place in the 2020s. I did not know what form it would take and I fully expected China to fire the first shot. But if this is as serious as I think it is, the "West" may win this war without firing a single shot.

    China was always ripe for collapse, due to overpopulation, environmental degradation and the self-destructiveness of any communist system. This, I fear, will tip it over the edge. At least the Communists will be gone, but the loss of life, not to mention the damage to the world economy will be immense.
    Last edited by Chris, 9th February 2020 at 10:38.

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  13. #37
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    Leaked data out of China would seem to indicate that the official death toll for confirmed Wuhan Coronavirus cases is now around 50.000 with approximately 1.5 million confirmed cases of infection. It is impossible to verify this info, but it would seem to be far closer to the real number than what is being officially released right now, given the complete lockdown of half a billion people and crematoriums working non-stop in the worst affected areas.

    https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whis...is-over-50000/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ess-passengers
    Last edited by Chris, 9th February 2020 at 21:04.

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  15. #38
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    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    Unfortunately, the Anglo-Saxon elite being behind this attack looks like an increasingly likely explanation for what is happening in China and soon in the rest of Asia. The situation in Singapore is already dire and it is thousands of miles from China. In other Asian countries, the disease is probably spreading undetected, which will become obvious in a couple of weeks.

    An engineered virus that targets Asian males specifically, released in the middle of China just in time for the New Year mass migration to spread it around hardly seems like a coincidence. I really think that this was a deliberate act of war, indeed Genocide, against the Chinese people, but the consequences will be global. I know it sounds crazy. Yet, that is the most likely explanation given what we know about this virus. I am also disturbed by the noises coming out of the Trump administration, they seemed almost triumphant as the news broke and made statements like this is going to be great for America. How exactly?

    As for Britain, I noticed, that BA was the first major airline to cancel all flights to China and the UK was the first country to advise ALL of its citizens to leave China immediately, all 300.000 of them. That is a massive number and these orders were issued well before it became obvious how widespread the disease is and how it is disrupting the country. What do the British know that they're not telling the rest of the world, given Boris's close relationship with Trump?

    I have always assumed that a major war with China was inevitable, which I expected would take place in the 2020s. I did not know what form it would take and I fully expected China to fire the first shot. But if this is as serious as I think it is, the "West" may win this war without firing a single shot.

    China was always ripe for collapse, due to overpopulation, environmental degradation and the self-destructiveness of any communist system. This, I fear, will tip it over the edge. At least the Communists will be gone, but the loss of life, not to mention the damage to the world economy will be immense.
    Chris, it is not an attack, nor a biological weapon. That is a rumor that was launched by Russian propagandists, and it has already been debunked.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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  17. #39
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    Chris, it is not an attack, nor a biological weapon. That is a rumor that was launched by Russian propagandists, and it has already been debunked.
    We'll see. An official investigation has been launched by the white house to get to the bottom of it.

    I admit that the chances of this being the work of the US are minuscule, yet, knowing the Neocons, I worry.

    That this virus was at least manipulated and enhanced in a lab, wherever that may be, seems very likely, given that a number of independent scientific sources have brought up this issue.

    Let's just go with the accidental release by the Wuhan BL4 lab theory for now, that is the one that explains most of the facts at hand, especially in terms of the DNA sequencing.

    Russians were spreading the rumour that the US was behind the Coronavirus attack, but I agree that this is far-fetched, though certainly isn't impossible. It doesn't seem any crazier than 9/11, using depleted Uranium in Iraq or Blowing up Saddam's Chemical Weapon stores so that it can evaporate and blow back on US troops.

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  19. #40
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    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    The more I look into it, the less I like it. I have dear friends, who live in Beijing and this thing is spreading quickly.

    I mean, there is still a chance, however slim, that this whole thing will blow over, but the reaction of the Chinese government and the facts on the ground tell me otherwise. BTW, as of now, four neighbouring countries have sealed their borders with China and the US and UK governments advise against all but non-essential travel to the whole of China, which is a continent-sized country, even larger than the US.

    Officially, only a few thousand people have gotten sick, but if that were true, why are they building brand new hospitals with record speed in Wuhan? From local reports, it would seem that Wuhan alone has tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of cases already. Pretty soon there will be millions and it has already spread beyond the borders of China. The silver lining seems to be that the death rate is not too bad so far perhaps 2-3 percent, although it must be said, the Spanish Influenza had roughly the same death rate, but a significantly lower R0 number, at around 1,8, so this outbreak is actually more serious. I have seen projections from serious publications that estimate around 20 percent of the global population will get it if current trends continue. That means around 1,5 billion well get sick and 30-40 million might die, all within the next year or so. I am also concerned about serious reports, not from whackjobs, but reputable sources, that the original source of the outbreak may have been the Wuhan biodefence lab, where they were experimenting with coronavirus strains collected from batcaves in the nearby area. Who knows if we'll ever find out the truth.
    Not to toot my own horn, but I made this post exactly two weeks ago and The New Scientist is now pretty much confirming my estimates and even calling them conservative. Apparently, I'm in the wrong line of work...

    https://www.newscientist.com/article...ple-worldwide/

    Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?

    If the spread of the new coronavirus isn’t halted, it could infect 60 per cent of the world’s population and kill 1 in 100 of those infected – around 50 million people.

    This is what Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, told The Guardian newspaper on 11 February. Is he right? The short answer is that no one knows, because there are many things we still don’t know about the virus.

    First, can we stop it spreading globally? So far, there have been over 40,000 cases in China, and 24 other countries have reported around 300 cases. The virus is spreading much more readily than other coronaviruses that have jumped from animals into people.

    Halting its spread requires identifying and isolating those who are infected. This could be especially difficult because some people might be infectious even when they have only mild symptoms. And while the average time from people being infected to showing symptoms is around three days, it might sometimes be as long as 24 days – more than the two-week quarantine period currently recommended.

    China is taking drastic measures to contain the virus, but it isn’t clear if they are working. There has been a fall in the number of new cases reported per day, but this could be due to hospitals being overwhelmed. It also seems China is now not counting people who test positive for the virus but don’t show symptoms.

    There is a good chance that wealthy countries could contain the trickle of cases currently being detected. The worry is that the virus is already spreading widely in countries that lack the resources to detect it.

    The head of the World Health Organization has warned that we may only be seeing “the tip of the iceberg”. If so, the chances of preventing a global pandemic are low.

    That brings us to the next question: how many people will be infected if the virus goes global? It has been estimated that 24 per cent of the world’s population was infected by the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic, despite older people having pre-existing immunity because they had been exposed to similar viruses.

    As far as we know, no one has any pre-existing immunity to the 2019 coronavirus. Each infected person also appears to be infecting two to four others on average, compared with 1.5 for flu. So Leung’s estimate of 60 per cent getting infected appears plausible, but we can’t say for certain.

    “You can’t really gauge what’s going on with this,” says David Heymann at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.

    The severity of the virus is also key. Early estimates of the death rate from new diseases are typically much higher than the true figure, because only serious cases are detected. For instance, it is now thought the 2009 flu killed 1 in 5000 people, far fewer than first feared.

    Initial reports of a 2 per cent death rate from the 2019 coronavirus were based on dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. But this doesn’t take into account the delay between people falling ill and either recovering or dying, or the fact that doctors were testing only people who already had pneumonia – the most serious cases.

    Based on estimates of the number of mild cases going uncounted, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London calculates that 1 per cent of those infected are dying – the same percentage used to calculate the 50 million deaths estimate. This could still be an overestimate, as treatments in development could reduce the death rate further.

    But Leung’s estimate actually misses another potential cause of deaths due to the coronavirus – people dying because normal healthcare services are disrupted by the outbreak.

    “The worry is not just those infected by the coronavirus itself, but all the services that will no longer run,” says Devi Sridhar at the University of Edinburgh, UK. “You will see all kinds of knock-on effects.”

    These will be most serious in poor countries whose health systems are already struggling. For instance, children began dying from measles when vaccination stopped during recent Ebola outbreaks in Africa. “UNICEF calls these the uncounted dead,” says Sridhar.

    However, even rich countries could struggle. The UK’s pandemic plans are for something of a similar magnitude to 2009 H1N1 flu, for instance, which killed up to 500,000 people globally.

    Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia, UK, thinks the coronavirus will end up killing even fewer people than the 2009 flu. “I don’t expect we will have that degree of fatality with this coronavirus, but I might be wrong,” he says. “If it is much worse than H1N1, then it would be horrendously difficult to handle.”

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  21. #41
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    An astonishing report by CNBC, that proves what we have been discussing here for weeks as "conspiracy theory" is now being seriously considered even in the mainstream, not just in China, but also the US. Mainstream media is now openly discussing the possibility that this virus was man made and got out of the Wuhan Bioweapons lab, as well as the admittedly far-fetched theory, that is nevertheless still being discussed in both Russia and China, that the US may have been behind it. Worth a watch.


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    Some terrifying charts showing the complete collapse of economic activity in China since Quarantine measures were introduced. There is currently no sign of economic activity resuming any time soon. This is going to affect us all, because we are so reliant on Chinese inputs in the global supply chain. Expect the entire world economy to seize up in the coming weeks as factories run out of parts and shortages become commonplace. This will lead to panic and hoarding, which will only exacerbate the situation. It might be a good idea to buy whatever you will need in the coming months now, before the clueless masses realise how dependent we are on China for pretty much all of the manufactured stuff we take for granted, including pharmaceuticals.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...proaching-zero

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    One of my co-workers from (Vietnam) has a sister and a brother-in-law that own a factory in China (The husband is originally from Hong Kong). No one is working as the freeways and other transit types are closed down...Crazy stuff...kind of surreal.
    "A large infusion of cash will cure most forms of fanatacism" - Thumbnail Biographies

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    Quote Originally posted by NotAPretender View Post
    One of my co-workers from (Vietnam) has a sister and a brother-in-law that own a factory in China (The husband is originally from Hong Kong). No one is working as the freeways and other transit types are closed down...Crazy stuff...kind of surreal.
    It's actually exactly like the movie, Contagion, over there.

    It was watching that movie that prompted me to start this thread, and boy, has it been prescient...

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