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Thread: Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

  1. #16
    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    I read that the SARS epidemic lasted only for some months and it was mostly contained in Asia.

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    Quote Originally posted by Wind View Post
    I read that the SARS epidemic lasted only for some months and it was mostly contained in Asia.
    Yes, this one looks more serious in terms of it spreading, because unlike SARS, it is contagious for up to two weeks, even before the person spreading it shows any symptoms. This is unprecedented and a public health nightmare. The silver lining seems to be a much lower death rate than with its SARS and MERS cousins. They still haven't gotten around giving a name for this novel coronavirus, I guess there are other priorities. Most people who get it, will only experience flu-like symptoms and will recover in a couple of weeks. This strain is likely to stick around permanently, much like the Flu virus and the common cold, it will probably prove impossible to eradicate.

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    And the plot thickens:

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...e-virus-spread

    Coronavirus: Wuhan has deadly pathogen lab linked to Chinese scientist under investigation

    CHINA'S only secure laboratory for studying deadly diseases is located in Wuhan and was the destination of several trips made by a Chinese scientist who is under investigation by the Canadian government.

    The scientist who worked at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg made at least five trips to China between 2017-18, including one to train scientists and technicians at China’s newly certified Level 4 lab, which does research with the most deadly pathogens. Xiangguo Qiu, who was escorted out of the Winnipeg lab in July amid an investigation into what’s being described by Public Health Agency of Canada as a possible “policy breach”, was invited to go to the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences twice a year for two years, for up to two weeks each time. Several of Mrs Qiu’s co-workers say there have always been questions about her trips to China, and what information and technology she was sharing with researchers there.

    One employee said: “It’s not right that she’s a Canadian government employee providing details of top-secret work and know-how to set up a high-containment lab for a foreign nation,”
    According to documents obtained CBC News during a September 2017 trip she also met with collaborators in Beijing, the documents say, but their names have also been blacked out.

    Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng and her students from China were removed on July 5 from Canada’s only Level 4 lab, one equipped to work with the most serious and deadly human and animal diseases, such as Ebola.

    Security access for the couple and the Chinese students was revoked.

    Meanwhile, there has been no change in Qiu and Cheng’s status at the University of Manitoba, which had severed ties with both of them and reassigned her students in July.
    Qiu is a medical doctor and virologist who helped develop ZMapp, a treatment for the deadly Ebola virus, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014-2016 and saw an outbreak in Congo earlier this year.
    She is a medical doctor originally from Tianjin in China.
    She came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996.

    She is still affiliated with the university there and has brought in many students over the years to help with her work.
    This news comes amid a Department of Justice announcement that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

    Doctor Charles Lieber, 60, Chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard University, was arrested this morning and charged by criminal complaint with one count of making a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement.

    Yanqing Ye, 29, a Chinese national, was also charged in an indictment today with one count each of visa fraud, making false statements, acting as an agent of a foreign government and conspiracy.

    Ye is currently in China.
    Zaosong Zheng, 30, a Chinese national, was arrested on December 10, 2019, at Boston’s Logan International Airport and charged by criminal complaint with attempting to smuggle 21 vials of biological research to China.
    On January 21, 2020, Zheng was indicted on one count of smuggling goods from the United States and one count of making false, fictitious or fraudulent statements.

    According to an Israeli biological warfare expert who spoke to The Washington Times, the deadly animal-borne coronavirus spreading globally may have originated in a laboratory in the city of Wuhan linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, said an Israeli biological warfare analyst.

    Radio Free Asia last week rebroadcast a Wuhan television report from 2015 showing China’s most advanced virus research laboratory, known the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The laboratory is the only declared site in China capable of working with deadly viruses.

    Dany Shoham, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who has studied Chinese biological warfare, said the institute is linked to Beijing’s covert bio-weapons program.

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  7. #19
    Super Moderator United States Dreamtimer's Avatar
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    I had to look up MERS. (I was thinking of MRSA)

    We can't trust private oligarchs either. They fund a lot of stuff and make large demands of government. Trump wants to make that fully legal. Legal quid pro quo. He wants it bad.

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    New data has come in regarding the death rate and R0 rate of this coronavirus. Apparently the original R0 rate was 4, which has since declined due to public health measures being taken. On the other hand, the first real numbers on the death rate are in and they are not looking good, at 11 percent they are about the same as with the SARS epidemic, instead of the 2-3 percent that was assumed earlier.

    https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...92130490814464

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    Many Russians Think America Created the Wuhan Coronavirus, and the Reasons May Shock You

    Several Russian scientists believe America created the Wuhan coronavirus to sabotage China while making boatloads of money off a cure.

    Russian scientists and political leaders are claiming that the United States created the Wuhan coronavirus.

    They believe the disease is a bioweapon designed to destabilize China while generating huge profits for American pharmaceutical companies.

    Russia has closed its land border with China in response to the Wuhan coronavirus threat.

    Details:

    https://www.ccn.com/many-russians-th...n-coronavirus/

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  13. #22
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    Quote Originally posted by Chris View Post
    Many Russians Think America Created the Wuhan Coronavirus, and the Reasons May Shock You

    Several Russian scientists believe America created the Wuhan coronavirus to sabotage China while making boatloads of money off a cure.

    Russian scientists and political leaders are claiming that the United States created the Wuhan coronavirus.

    They believe the disease is a bioweapon designed to destabilize China while generating huge profits for American pharmaceutical companies.

    Russia has closed its land border with China in response to the Wuhan coronavirus threat.

    Details:

    https://www.ccn.com/many-russians-th...n-coronavirus/
    Yip this sounds more truthfullll

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  15. #23
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    A highly concerning report from the Epoch Times, the largest Mandarin-language newspaper in the US, which has been leaking inside info from the CCP's inner workings and the latest Party Conference, where the true scale of the trouble China is in has been discussed as well as plans to mitigate against the worst-case scenario. If this report is accurate and given the source, it probably is, even the CCP is now expecting millions of casualties from the Coronavirus and with the exception of 11 major cities, the entire country will be shut down and quarantined to stop the spread of the virus. This is unprecedented stuff outside of major historical epidemics, like the black plague.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/faced-...r_3220421.html

    Faced With Existential Threat to Their Rule, Chinese Leaders Decide to Save 11 Cities From Coronavirus Epidemic: Insider


    Top Chinese leaders at a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo meeting last week expressed concern that the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak may put an end to their rule. They have decided to focus on preserving 11 major cities from being devastated by the virus.

    Stephen Shiu Yeuk-yuen, a senior political commentator and media professional in Hong Kong, told the Hong Kong edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 28 that he obtained the information from an insider in the CCP’s top leadership. According to Shiu, the Politburo emergency meeting was held on Jan. 25, on the day of the Chinese New Year.

    The 11 cities on the CCP’s priority list of being saved are Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Shenyang, Harbin, and Urumqi. The CCP is prepared to protect these 11 cities at all cost, even if it means sacrificing other cities, Shiu said.

    Projected Death Toll Estimate: Between 1 and 2 Million

    Shiu said that according to a recent research report by Professor Gabriel Matthew Leung, before the lockdown of Wuhan—where the deadly and highly contagious coronavirus originated—there were about 25,000 people infected with the coronavirus, and 15,000 additional cases during the virus incubation period. This means, the total number of infected people is roughly 40,000. Based on the spreading pattern, it is estimated that the current number of infected people around the globe is between 25,000 and 38,000.

    Prof. Leung is Dean of the University of Hong Kong’s Medical School. He is also a recognized medical doctor and public health authority.

    Leung’s report points out that without strong intervention measures in place, the number of infected people will double every 6.2 days, if the calculation is based on an even more conservative figure of 22,000 infected cases globally at present.

    Leung estimates that in Wuhan, the number of newly infected patients will reach the maximum—about 200,000 per day—in April. In several other cities, including Chongqing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the number will peak in May. In the months that follow, the total number of infected people across the country will reach 18 million, with the total number of deaths ranging between 1 and 2 million.

    Information Blockade and Cover-up
    Shiu criticized the CCP for its cover-up and delay in taking measures to contain the virus, saying the main reason for this catastrophe is the blocking of information.

    As a result, those who were infected with the disease were not quarantined in a timely manner.

    Chinese authorities initially denied that the disease could be spread via human-to-human transmission.

    In addition, for several days, Chinese medical authorities reported very few new cases in Wuhan and no new cases in other Chinese cities, giving the public a false impression that the novel coronavirus was not a threat to public health.

    Then on Jan. 20, a leading scientist of China’s Health Commission, Zhong Nanshan, announced at a press conference in Beijing that the disease can spread from human to human.

    Wuhan’s mayor subsequently announced a city-wide lockdown on Jan. 23, and quarantined the city on the same day. But millions of people had already left Wuhan for the holiday before Jan. 20, and nearly 300,000 Wuhan residents rushed to escape from the city before the lockdown was executed.

    In addition, even after the city-wide lockdown of Wuhan, the central authorities failed to dispatch needed manpower and medical supplies, resulting in things such as corpses lying about on a hospital floor and citizens not being informed about virus prevention, all of which would further spread the virus.

    The 11 Cities
    According to Shiu’s insider contact, central authorities at the Jan. 25 Politburo meeting pointed out that the novel coronavirus outbreak poses a serious challenge to the legitimacy of the CCP’s rule. In other words, the CCP is facing a serious crisis and the threat of its total demise.

    Shiu said he believes the epidemic, which is now getting out of control, will have “a deadly impact” on China’s economy. In his estimation, more than half of Chinese business activities will come to a halt. Hong Kong will also be affected, he said.

    Therefore, the top officials at the political meeting decided to go all out to save the 11 cities from the coronavirus outbreak.

    The insider did not give specific reasons as to why the authorities chose those 11 cities, but they are the commercial and military hubs in the country. It is well-known among mainland Chinese that the most developed metros and financial hubs are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong; and the military technology centers are Xi’an, Shenyang and Harbin.

    Shiu predicted that Shenzhen, a city of about 20 million people that borders Hong Kong, will soon be completely isolated from other Chinese regions.

    “There are many high-tech companies in Shenzhen,” he explained. “As for Hong Kong, the city’s government seems to be hesitating. I believe it is because they are waiting for the final instruction from the central government [Beijing],” he said.

    Meanwhile, more than 15,000 hospital authority employees in Hong Kong have joined a new union, urging the Hong Kong government to close the border with mainland China. According to the representative of the union, if they do not receive any response from local officials by Feb. 3, members of the union will launch a large-scale strike.
    Last edited by Chris, 1st February 2020 at 10:05.

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  17. #24
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    If you really (really-really) want to understand how the Wuhan Coronavirus (as well as SARS and probably the Spanish Flu, possibly even the black plague) came about, you've got to understand Chinese culture and some of the idiosyncracies and controversial practices within it. The below two videos really resonate with me, as I understand Chinese culture and people better than most. I lived in Singapore for a couple of years, which has a predominantly ethnic Chinese population, had many friends from China or people who lived there and told me about it and I even used to date a girl, who was from all places, Wuhan. These videos are very un-PC and would probably outrage Chinese people, but the topics discussed cannot be swept under the carpet any more and we've got to talk about them. The problems within Chinese culture that regularly lead to these pandemics where animal viruses jump unto human hosts and then spread all over the world include:

    - Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and various superstitions associated with it
    - Lack of Hygiene
    - Lack of awareness of germ theory and how viruses spread disease in traditional Chinese culture
    - The issue of face, which is a problem all over Asia and leads to a lack of honest discussion and sweeping problems under the carpet
    - The issue of people eating animals they should not be eating, particularly wild and endangered ones
    - The lack of Quality Control in the entire food system
    - The existence of wet markets, with a complete lack of hygiene and people's attachment to them
    - Spitting.

    These are just some of the issues discussed, but they are all very important and unless Chinese society gets a hold of itself, these pandemics will keep popping up out of China and infecting the whole world, so we can no longer sweep them under the carpet.

    Last edited by Chris, 1st February 2020 at 18:36.

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    And this is how it's done in Singapore, showing what can be achieved with proper planning and an educated and well-informed populace. Interestingly, the article below also brings up the issue of public spitting, which I suspect is the main reason the virus has spread so quickly in mainland China. It is indeed very hard to change these habits overnight, but change them we must. As mentioned in the the first video above, Europeans only stopped spitting on the streets with the onset of the Spanish Flu in 1918 and the public hygiene information campaigns that accompanied it. China must really learn from this experience.

    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/healt...s-good-hygiene

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  21. #26
    Senior Member NotAPretender's Avatar
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    The Black Plague has anthropological origins in the Yamnaya...it's the way they took over the world.
    Last edited by NotAPretender, 1st February 2020 at 21:32.
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    The Han though comprising over a billion people are genetically homogeneous which makes one wonder how that might translate to a human pandemic?
    Last edited by NotAPretender, 14th April 2020 at 13:06.
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  25. #28
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    The below article should be treated with caution. It is highly alarmist and sensationalist, with a lot of unverified reports and speculation. Nevertheless, it is a good summary of what might be going on in China right now, with a lot of highly disturbing videos about the unrest and chaos, people fighting over food, hospital lines that are miles long, infected people's homes being sealed, dead bodies on the street, street blockades, quarantine measures, etc...

    None of the videos are verified (e.g. were they really taken in the affected areas recently? Nobody knows) and some of the theories and articles linked have been discredited. But, if you want to scare yourself to death, go ahead and click the link:

    https://halturnerradioshow.com/index...y-china-s-army

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  27. #29
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    This study published on the epoch times seems to confirm some of the more wild theories and speculations about the origins and effects of the Novel Coronavirus. Even though the supporting Indian research paper has since been withdrawn, we can safely assume this was due to pressure from the Chinese Government, who have every incentive to keep this information secret, especially from their own restive populations.

    Conclusion:

    There are many scientific questions regarding this novel virus. Based on recently published scientific papers, this new coronavirus has unprecedented virologic features that suggest genetic engineering may have been involved in its creation. The virus presents with severe clinical features, thus it poses a huge threat to humans. It is imperative for scientists, physicians, and people all over the world, including governments and public health authorities, to make every effort to investigate this mysterious and suspicious virus in order to elucidate its origin and to protect the ultimate future of the human race.


    https://www.theepochtimes.com/scient...s_3225405.html

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  29. #30
    Super Moderator United States Dreamtimer's Avatar
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    Thanks for the vids. It's good to hear from someone who has lived in China and with Chinese people.

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