Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

[Wind]

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v6JwXQ-rUo

[Chris]

Bill Ryan just posted the following at Project Avalon...



WTF?!

I'm not surprised, his and the CDC's big mistake in the beginning was that they refused the German-made diagnostic test kit that everyone else was using and wanted to develop their own "made in America" version, which was supposed to be superior. Except, it turned out to be faulty , the CDC had to recall it and it took them this long to come up with an actually working diagnostic test kit. They are struggling to ramp up production though, so they've probably realised the German medical industry is so far ahead on this that they should just buy the damned thing.

Apparently a billion dollars was offered to this German company for the rights to the vaccine they are developing.

[Aragorn]

I'm not surprised, his and the CDC's big mistake in the beginning was that they refused the German-made diagnostic test kit that everyone else was using and wanted to develop their own "made in America" version, which was supposed to be superior. Except, it turned out to be faulty , the CDC had to recall it and it took them this long to come up with an actually working diagnostic test kit. They are struggling to ramp up production though, so they've probably realised the German medical industry is so far ahead on this that they should just buy the damned thing.

Apparently a billion dollars was offered to this German company for the rights to the vaccine they are developing.

Exclusive rights. That's what freaks me out about this. Is there no end to his madness? First he wants to buy Greenland, and now this.

On a different note, Dutch researchers have isolated an antibody against the coronavirus. That looks promising.

[Chris]

Exclusive rights. That's what freaks me out about this. Is there no end to his madness? First he wants to buy Greenland, and now this.

On a different note, Dutch researchers have isolated an antibody against the coronavirus. That looks promising.

Yes, obviously he and his big pharma buddies want to get rich off the vaccine. But then, that is the entire Raison d'etre of the entire for-profit US healthcare system.

I wouldn't worry about it too much, making a vaccine is the easy part, getting it tested, trialled and approved is much harder and such a working, trialled and tested vaccine is reportedly at least 2 years away.

[Emil El Zapato]

I'll give you a conspiracy theory...The timing for economic meltdowns historically could be enlightening. I challenge anyone to go through history and check when it happens? At the end of Republican rule, almost invariably...

China has allowed workers to return to their jobs...but no supplies to operate as yet.

[Chris]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...m-hospitalised

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infection could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical services such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.

It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.

“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.

“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.

The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.

The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.

However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to function normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone with a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.

The document also states that:

The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.

From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.

Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.

Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.

After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.

There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.

[Emil El Zapato]

First dose to be delivered Monday in clinical trial for potential COVID-19 vaccine

WASHINGTON (FOX 5 DC) - A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a government official.


The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet. The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle, the official said.

Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

Testing will begin with 45 young, healthy volunteers with different doses of shots co-developed by NIH and Moderna Inc. There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots, because they don’t contain the virus itself. The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects, setting the stage for larger tests.

Dozens of research groups around the world are racing to create a vaccine as COVID-19 cases continue to grow. Importantly, they’re pursuing different types of vaccines — shots developed from new technologies that not only are faster to produce than traditional inoculations but might prove more potent. Some researchers even aim for temporary vaccines, such as shots that might guard people’s health a month or two at a time while longer-lasting protection is developed.

For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The worldwide outbreak has sickened more than 156,000 people and left more than 5,800 dead. The death toll in the United States is more than 50, while infections neared 3,000 across 49 states and the District of Columbia.

The vast majority of people recover. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three weeks to six weeks to recover.

Its true fatality rate isn’t yet known, but it seems 10 times higher than the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world each year, the United States’ top infectious disease expert told lawmakers last week.

[Chris]

Time to get contrarian.

Everybody has finally realised how serious the situation is and everyone is freaking out. Panic buying, empty streets, the whole lot.

Social distancing is being taken seriously and even here at work serious measures are being taken.

This gives me hope, that the situation will soon be brought under control.

I now think that these measures will work and the peak of the epidemic will pass in the next few weeks, at least in my region.

I must say that Central Europe has taken a much more serious and measured approach than a lot of other places. I'm impressed by the central government response in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia, to a lesser extent, even Hungary.

What I see is that people in this region are a lot more organised and serious about the epidemic than what I see in Italy, France (mass protests? really? Now?) or the UK. The supply situation also seems to be much better than what is reported in the UK.

I hope these aren't famous last words, but I think we will escape the brunt of it here. I'm much less sure about the UK and the US, reports indicate that there are already a lot of sick people who are undeclared and untested.

They've just announced the sealing of the borders here in Hungary as well (except for freight), so it seems the required measures to stop the epidemic are being introduced.

[Emil El Zapato]

well, Chris, so far your calls have been pretty good, so I hope you're right

[Wind]

Well, now the government here decided to close down basically everything, including the borders.

[Chris]

The below article is well worth a read and explains why both the UK and US governments changed their tune on how they were going to respond to the Coronavirus pandemic. Absent extreme Quarantine and social distancing measures, the death toll would be terrifying, running into the millions in the US alone. Even with these measures in place, hospitals will be overwhelmed by mid-April and significant triage (prioritising resources and deciding who lived and who dies, like in wartime) will be necessary. The two included charts are terrifying and makes me glad that we are finally doing something to fight the epidemic.

On a personal note, from tomorrow I am working from home, indefinitely. If the below projections are to be believed, at least for the next few months, maybe even the next couple of years. We will have to change our habits indefinitely I'm afraid.

I used to work from home in my previous job, for more than two years, so I'm used to it, but to be honest, I'd much prefer to work in the office where there is a certain camaderie and banter. But, we all have to do our part.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/u...ite-house.html

White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll

Federal guidelines warned against gatherings of more than 10 people as a London report predicted high fatalities in the U.S. without drastic action.

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said.

The White House guidelines urged Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people. That is a more restrictive stance than recommendations released on Sunday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said that gatherings should be limited to 50.

The White House also recommended that Americans work from home, avoid unnecessary shopping trips and refrain from eating in restaurants. Some states and cities have already imposed stricter measures, including lockdowns and business closings.

Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.


“What had the biggest impact in the model is social distancing, small groups, not going in public in large groups,” Dr. Birx said. “The most important thing was if one person in the household became infected, the whole household self-quarantined for 14 days. Because that stops 100 percent of the transmission outside of the household.”



Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.

The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.

“We don’t have a clear exit strategy,” Dr. Ferguson said of the recommended measures. “We’re going to have to suppress this virus — frankly, indefinitely — until we have a vaccine.”

“It’s a difficult position for the world to be in,” he added.

The report, which was not released in a peer-reviewed journal but was authored by 30 scientists on behalf of Imperial College’s coronavirus response team, simulated the role of public health measures aimed at reducing contact.

“The effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Ferguson said the potential health impacts were comparable to the devastating 1918 influenza outbreak, and would “kind of overwhelm health system capacity in any developed country, including the United States,” unless measures to reduce the spread of the virus were taken.

The White House task force did not respond to requests for comment. Officials stressed that the federal government’s restrictive new guidelines would be re-evaluated after 15 days, although they hinted that they were likely to be extended.



The study’s authors said their research made it clear that people in the United States might be advised to continue with draconian restrictions on their daily lives for far longer than Mr. Trump and the task force indicated on Monday.

“The major challenge of suppression,” the British scientists concluded, is the length of time that intensive interventions would be needed, given that “we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.”

The authors said that so-called mitigation policies alone — isolating people suspected of having the virus at home, quarantining their contacts and separating the most vulnerable people from others — might reduce the peak demand on the health care system by two-thirds and deaths by half if applied for three months. But that would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and in health systems “overwhelmed many times over,” they said.

This was why the authors also recommended measures to distance the entire population, such as school closures. Those interventions, they suggested, could be “relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows" and then reintroduced if new infections began growing.

The researchers said that the long-term “social and economic effects” were likely to be “profound,” and that the measures were not guaranteed to succeed and could themselves have “significant impact on health and well-being.”

“No public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time,” they added. “How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.”

[Emil El Zapato]

At this point, things have hit the surreal level...and working on 'apocalyptic'...As someone on the boob tube said today: No one in their lifetimes have experienced anything like this...it's unreal. Trump's election was the indicator that the world was gonna get crazy. Too much demonic influence running loose in the cosmic consciousness.

[Chris]

At this point, things have hit the surreal level...and working on 'apocalyptic'...As someone on the boob tube said today: No one in their lifetimes have experienced anything like this...it's unreal. Trump's election was the indicator that the world was gonna get crazy. Too much demonic influence running loose in the cosmic consciousness.

The crazy thing is, the lead author of the study I posted yesterday, about 2,2 million potential deaths in the US, has just tweeted that he himself now has the symptoms of the coronavirus.

This is absolutely fucking nuts. Mnuchin has predicted a 20 percent unemployment rate pretty soon, that actually seems optimistic. Everything has shut down, except for essential services and is likely to stay shut for several months. How many businesses can afford paying their employees without any revenues coming in. Not many I'd say. Sad to say, but most businesses are going under and that's just the way it is. A wave of bankruptcies will wobble the banking system and cause many banks to go under. Bailouts, soaring benefits bills and crashing revenues will cause many sovereign defaults and currency crises as well.

On the other hand, I still think the infection will burn through the population in a few months and die down by the summer. Things will then slowly get back to normal, but the economic damage will be permanent and we might be facing another Great Depression. Some companies with strong balance sheets will benefit though and will have the market all to themselves when normal operations resume. That is when investment opportunities will present themselves to those few that still have cash lying around. Cash is king in a liquidation crisis like this, even gold, silver and bitcoin are crashing right now.

[Gio]

Will share this here ...

From a young man whom i have much respect for ...

In his words ...

"This is an interview I did two days ago with a renowned virologist, a lovely lady and very caring, and yet the state media in Germany vilifies her for her comments on corona, when all she says is take precautions, but don't put people in chains."

Generation Mensch #5 - Prof. Dr. Karin Mölling (Corona) (ENG SUBS)

(with English subtitles)

Mar 18, 2020

15:00 minutes

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycum0vtVwi4

[Wind]

Too much demonic influence running loose in the cosmic consciousness.

You hit the nail on the head, brother.

This shitshow is just absurd and I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet.

May we pray that in the end this will actually lead to something good.