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Thread: Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

  1. #151
    Retired Member Hungary
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    The numbers are interesting, though ─ I've just posted them on the Chris Thomas thread.

    • There are over 100'000 infections worldwide. More than half of those have recovered or are in the process of recovering.
    • There have so far been over 3'400 deaths worldwide due to this virus, but well over 3'000 of those were in the Wuhan province in China.
    There are over 100.000 confirmed infections. How many actual infections there are is an open question, but I'd wager it is at least an order of magnitude higher than that. Ditto for deaths. They probably are also a lot higher than what we know of, given that anyone who died but wasn't tested and confirmed for this CoV would have been counted as having died from something else.

    Iran alone probably has thousands of undeclared cases, they're digging mass graves for Chrissakes and people are dropping dead all over the place, just like they did in China.

    There is just no way we only have 3000 deaths in Wuhan and China as a whole. Mobile Crematoria have been working non-stop for a month now, burning hundreds of bodies a day. There must have been tens of thousands of deaths in Wuhan alone, at the very least.

    My own hunch, based on leaks coming out from China and Iran, is that in reality we are already heading towards a million dead and are about to go stratospheric in the death count. Buckle up folks, this is going to be a bumpy ride.

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  3. #152
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    I'm thinking that intelligence agencies would have a good idea of the true numbers, but who knows what they would do with the information.
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  5. #153
    Senior Member Emil El Zapato's Avatar
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    In the U.S. the first infections were in Washington State at a nursing home...(Something like that) A month ago they had 80 residents...now they have 55 with purportedly 16 deaths...that sounds pretty nasty to me...Tongue-in-Cheek here: On the bright side Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been contaminated and says he will self-quarantine.

    Awhile back in Houston a poster made the statement that all liberals should self-quarantine and I responded that all Conservatives should hold a convention...damn, i was just kidding.

    Apparently Cruz was exposed at what is known as CPAC (Essentially it is where all the conservatives gather to spread propaganda and lies).

    CPAC: Conservative Political Action Conference
    “El revolucionario: te meteré la bota en el culo"

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  7. #154
    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by NotAPretender View Post
    In the U.S. the first infections were in Washington State at a nursing home...(Something like that) A month ago they had 80 residents...now they have 55 with purportedly 16 deaths...that sounds pretty nasty to me...Tongue-in-Cheek here: On the bright side Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been contaminated and says he will self-quarantine.

    Awhile back in Houston a poster made the statement that all liberals should self-quarantine and I responded that all Conservatives should hold a convention...damn, i was just kidding.

    Apparently Cruz was exposed at what is known as CPAC (Essentially it is where all the conservatives gather to spread propaganda and lies).

    CPAC: Conservative Political Action Conference
    One of the funniest statements I read was in a tweet that was published at Project Avalon, and that read: "If I get the coronavirus, I'm going to start attending every Trump rally."
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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  9. #155
    Senior Member Fred Steeves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    One of the funniest statements I read was in a tweet that was published at Project Avalon, and that read: "If I get the coronavirus, I'm going to start attending every Trump rally."
    Nice.
    The unexamined life is not worth living.

    Socrates

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  11. #156
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    Bad, bad news. The whole of Italy is now under lockdown. In other news...

    We knew that Sars-Cov2 was exceptionally contagious, but the below Chinese study has unearthed some new information on how much. You can get infected through the air even if you are 4-5 metres away, especially if you are in an air-conditioned environment. The virus can survive on certain surfaces for several days and still be infective.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...tance-and-stay

    Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds

    - Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away

    - The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger

    The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.
    The researchers also found that it can last for days on surfaces where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if an unsuspecting person touches it and then rubs their face and hands.
    The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

    These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a “safe distance” of one to two metres (three to six and a half feet).



    “It can be confirmed that in a closed environment with air-conditioning, the transmission distance of the new coronavirus will exceed the commonly recognised safe distance,” the researchers wrote in a paper published in peer-review journal Practical Preventive Medicine last Friday.
    The paper also highlighted the risk that the virus could remain afloat even after the carrier had left the bus.
    The scientists warned that the coronavirus could survive more than five days in human faeces or bodily fluids.

    They said the study proves the importance of washing hands and wearing face masks in public places because the virus can linger in the air attached to fine droplet particles.
    “Our advice is to wear a face mask all the way [through the bus ride],” they added.
    Their work was based on a local outbreak case on January 22 during the peak Lunar New Year travel season. A passenger, known as “A”, boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back.
    The passenger already felt sick at that point but it was before China had declared the coronavirus outbreak a national crisis, so “A” did not wear a mask, nor did most of the other passengers or the driver on the 48-seat bus.

    China requires closed circuit television cameras to be installed on all long-distance buses, which provided valuable footage for researchers to reconstruct the spread of the virus on the bus, whose windows were all closed.
    Hu Shixiong, the lead author of the study who works for the Hunan Provincial Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention, said the security camera footage showed patient “A” did not interact with others throughout the four-hour ride.
    But by the time the bus stopped at the next city, the virus had already jumped from the carrier to seven other passengers.

    These included not only people sitting relatively close to “patient zero”, but also a couple of victims six rows away from him – roughly 4.5 metres away.
    They all later tested positive, including one passenger who displayed no symptoms of the disease.
    After these passengers left, another group got on the bus about 30 minutes later. One passenger sitting in the front row on the other side of the aisle also became infected.

    Hu said the patient, who was not wearing a mask, was likely to have inhaled aerosols, or tiny particles, breathed out by the infected passengers from the previous group.
    Aerosols are light-weighted particles that are formed from tiny droplets of bodily fluids.
    “The possible reason is that in a completely enclosed space, the airflow is mainly driven by the hot air generated by the air conditioning. The rise of the hot air can transport the virus-laden droplets to a greater distance,” said the paper.
    After getting off the shuttle bus, the initial carrier got on a minibus and travelled for another hour. The virus jumped to two other passengers, one of whom was also sitting 4.5 metres away from patient “A”.
    By the time the study was finished in mid February, patient “A” had infected at least 13 people.
    It is generally believed that the airborne transmission of Covid-19 is limited because the tiny droplets produced by patients will quickly sink to the ground.

    This belief has prompted the Chinese health authorities to suggest that people should stay a metre apart in public and the US Centres for Disease Control recommend a safe distance of six feet (about 1.8 metres).
    The researchers also found that none of those passengers in the two buses who wore face masks were infected.
    They said it vindicated the decision to ask people to wear a face mask in public.

    “When riding on more closed public transportation such as subways, cars, planes, etc, you should wear a mask all the time, and at the same time, minimise the contact between your hands and public areas, and avoid touching your face before cleaning,” they said.
    The researchers also suggested improving sanitation on public transport and adjusting the air conditioning to maximise the volume of fresh air supplied.

    They also said interiors should cleaned and disinfected once or twice a day, especially after passengers arrive at the terminal.
    A doctor in Beijing involved in the diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19 patients said the study had left some questions unanswered.
    For instance, the passengers sitting immediately next to the carriers were not infected, though they were suffering the highest exposure to the disease-bearing aerosols.
    “Our knowledge about this virus’s transmission is still limited,” he said.
    Last edited by Chris, 9th March 2020 at 21:38.

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  13. #157
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    An important article from the Atlantic on the continued lack of testing in the US:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/

    This really is becoming an international embarrassment at this point and makes one wonder if it really is just incompetence. It's almost as if the CDC is deliberately trying to encourage the spread of this virus. This continued Don't Test, Don't Tell policy is unlikely to end well.

    Closer to home (for me), my Italian suppliers have just informed me that they can no longer deliver orders internationally. Apparently all cross-border deliveries (that is, both exports and imports) have stopped. The whole of Italy, 60 million people are now under strict lockdown. Prison inmates are rioting, demanding a general amnesty, like in Iran, with 7 now dead. There are tanks on the streets and people are essentially shut indoors. Scary stuff.

    In Hungary, there are 9 confirmed cases of Covid-19, mostly international students, all of them in the capital, Budapest. Neighbouring Austria has over 100 cases now and that is probably an underestimate, given their proximity to Italy.

    Stock markets and commodity prices are still dropping like a stone, with only gold holding up reasonably well and even rising. A worldwide deflationary depression is now a near-certainty, 1929-style. Note that during the Great Depression gold and US treasuries were the best safe havens, this is likely to repeat during the current depression we are already in.
    Last edited by Chris, 10th March 2020 at 09:50.

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    And I'm traveling soon. And again after that.

    I'm kinda glad my son currently lives in a very sparsely populated state.

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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    And I'm traveling soon. And again after that.

    I'm kinda glad my son currently lives in a very sparsely populated state.
    Well, I would certainly prepare for a lockdown. E.g. pack in a way that you can stay where you are going indefinitely, maybe for a couple of weeks or even months. They may not let you back home if the place you're going to is locked down.

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    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    And I'm traveling soon. And again after that.

    I'm kinda glad my son currently lives in a very sparsely populated state.
    I think it would be wisest if everyone were to stop traveling for a while, even if only for a couple of weeks. People who board planes are screened for weapons and explosives, not for viruses.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    And not for viruses which make it very difficult to screen for. I do have insurance. Goodness gracious, what to do.

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    Rumours are that a state of emergency is about to be declared on a federal level and Washington state is about to be locked down, with parts of New York not far behind. They still haven't started testing in earnest, but at least there are now some private labs that are authorised by the CDC to carry out testing. Expect the number of confirmed cases to go parabolic in the coming days. It will be much worse than Italy, given the delay in testing and the extra weeks the virus had to spread undetected. Expect the whole of the US to be on some sort of lockdown within the next week or two.

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  25. #163
    Super Moderator Wind's Avatar
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    This might last for a few months and then we will see what the world has learned from it. Not so great times now.

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  27. #164
    Administrator Aragorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Wind View Post
    This might last for a few months and then we will see what the world has learned from it. Not so great times now.
    Somehow I think that the world won't have learned much from it. Governments, yes ─ they will have learned to be better prepared. But the people? Nah, they're already long beyond learning now. They only know knee-jerks anymore.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    Going into a calm place, preparing and using a mantra to keep mind out, relax afterwards and feel into the virus panic, get your own answer, please.

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