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  1. #31
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    The weather is related to climate and the climate is related to space weather and the sun.

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    Senior Member NotAPretender's Avatar
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    The Conversation

    Academic rigor, journalistic flair

    Climate change is slowing Atlantic currents that help keep Europe warm

    Author
    Peter T. Spooner
    Research Associate in Paleoceanography, UCL

    Disclosure statement
    Peter T. Spooner receives funding from the EU ATLAS project, an international effort investigating deep-sea ecosystems and their response to ocean change (https://www.eu-atlas.org/).



    The ocean currents that help warm the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America have significantly slowed since the 1800s and are at their weakest in 1600 years, according to new research my colleagues and I have conducted. As we’ve set out in a new study in Nature, the weakening of this ocean circulation system may have begun naturally but is probably being continued by climate change related to greenhouse gas emissions.

    This circulation is a key player in the Earth’s climate system and a large or abrupt slowdown could have global repercussions. It could cause sea levels on the US east coast to rise, alter European weather patterns or rain patterns more globally, and hurt marine wildlife.

    We know that at the end of the last major ice age, rapid fluctuations in the circulation led to extreme climate shifts on a global scale. An exaggerated (but terrifying) example of such a sudden event was portrayed in the 2004 blockbuster film The Day After Tomorrow.

    The recent weakening we have found was likely driven by warming in the north Atlantic and the addition of freshwater from increased rainfall and melting ice. It has been predicted many times but, until now, just how much weakening has already occurred has largely remained a mystery. The extent of the changes we have discovered comes as a surprise to many, including myself, and points to significant changes in the future.

    The circulation system in question is known as the “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation” (AMOC). The AMOC is like a giant conveyor belt of water. It transports warm, salty water to the north Atlantic where it gets very cold and sinks. Once in the deep ocean the water flows back southwards and then all around the world’s oceans. This conveyor belt is one of the most important transporters of heat in the climate system and includes the Gulf Stream, known for keeping western Europe warm.

    Climate models have consistently predicted that the AMOC will slow down due to greenhouse gas warming and associated changes in the water cycle. Because of these predictions – and the possibility of abrupt climate changes – scientists have monitored the AMOC since 2004 with instruments strung out across the Atlantic at key locations. But to really test the model predictions and work out how climate change is affecting the conveyor we have needed much longer records.

    Looking for patterns
    To create these records, our research group – led by University College London’s Dr David Thornalley – used the idea that a change in the AMOC has a unique pattern of impact on the ocean. When the AMOC gets weaker, the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean cools and parts of the western Atlantic get warmer by a specific amount. We can look for this pattern in past records of ocean temperature to trace what the circulation was like in the past.

    Another study in the same issue of Nature, led by researchers at the University of Potsdam in Germany, used historical observations of temperature to check the fingerprint. They found that the AMOC had reduced in strength by around 15% since 1950, pointing to the role of human-made greenhouse gas emissions as the primary cause.

    In our paper, which also forms part of the EU ATLAS project, we found the same fingerprint. But instead of using historical observations we used our expertise in past climate research to go back much further in time. We did this by combining known records of the remains of tiny marine creatures found in deep-sea mud. Temperature can be worked out by looking at the amounts of different species and the chemical compositions of their skeletons.

    We were also able to directly measure the past deep ocean current speeds by looking at the mud itself. Larger grains of mud imply faster currents, while smaller grains mean the currents were weaker. Both techniques point to a weakening of the AMOC since about 1850, again by about 15% to 20%. Importantly, the modern weakening is very different to anything seen over the last 1,600 years, pointing to a combination of natural and human drivers.

    The difference in timing of the start of the AMOC weakening in the two studies will require more scientific attention. Despite this difference, both of the new studies raise important questions regarding whether climate models simulate the historical changes in ocean circulation, and whether we need to revisit some of our future projections.

    However, each additional long record makes it easier to evaluate how well the models simulate this key element of the climate system. In fact, evaluating models against these long records may be a crucial step if we hope to accurately predict possible extreme AMOC events and their climate impacts.
    "We are one thought away from changing the world!"

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    I believe climate exists and changes... and thus, I do not deny climate change.

    I am not a climate alarmist and I pretty much stay away from climate alarmism in any form it manifests.

    I don't deny the capacity for human beings to take advantage of the emotionally vulnerable so they can gain power and often along with that, wealth.

    I am not a scientist, phyicist, climatologist, meteorologist or any other "ist" (I guess you get the gist). I have developed a little street savvy over the years and with regards to the alarmism, my intuition tells me its a scam. In addition, when I use logic as to considering who to believe, I am wary of those who are backed by the elite in one form or another (and it is these who make up 97% of the alarmists)... as I think the elite have already won anyways and all they're doing is refining their position. But I also don't think its wise to believe "big oil" mouth pieces either. Still... put a gun to my head and I bet that though man can surely impact the climate... to the extent that Mother Earth can't take care of Herself (and any nuisances) fine and well on Her own? I don't buy it.

    Let me ask folks here something. Does anyone here actually think they can change the course of the obvious path humanity is traveling as viewed from the perspective of their physical continuance? I don't but I also won't be here after this go round (as long as I have a say so at the level of my soul).
    Last edited by Sammy, 11th June 2019 at 03:54.

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  7. #34
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    Are there odds on the human cause of climate change? I wonder if it's even possible to figure out odds for that.


    Humans will continue. Our civilizations will end. It seems to have happened over and over again.

    I personally believe that most of us will continue in spirit/conscious form as that form came first and takes precedence in terms of existence.

    The earth always survives. I doubt she wants any of her children to die in cataclysm. Nonetheless, it happens.


    In his interview with Greg Carlson, Ben Davidson of Suspicious Observers said that he sees intelligence in the behavior of the sun. This is a man who is taking a scientific approach. A man who doesn't let that get in the way of seeing the bigger picture which goes beyond science.

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  9. #35
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    Quote Originally posted by Sammy View Post
    ... as I think the elite have already won anyways and all they're doing is refining their position.
    I'm inclined to agree with that.

    Quote Originally posted by Sammy View Post
    But I also don't think its wise to believe "big oil" mouth pieces either.
    Correct. Big Oil™ and Big Coal™. And nuclear power may be clean on account of emissions and exempt from directly influencing the climate, but we all know it has its own issues ─ the risk of nuclear meltdowns or explosions as has happened in Chernobyl or catastrophes like the one in Fukushima ─ which was of course the result of damage caused by a tsunami, but nevertheless ─ as well as the risk of contamination of the environment by radiation leaking through cracks in the housing of aging reactors, and finally, the problem of how to get rid of the nuclear waste.

    Quote Originally posted by Sammy View Post
    [...] Let me ask folks here something. Does anyone here actually think they can change the course of the obvious path humanity is traveling as viewed from the perspective of their physical continuance?
    Personally, I think that if there has ever been a chance to do it, then we've certainly missed the boat.

    Quote Originally posted by Sammy View Post
    I don't but I also won't be here after this go round (as long as I have a say so at the level of my soul).
    Ditto.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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  11. #36
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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    Are there odds on the human cause of climate change? I wonder if it's even possible to figure out odds for that.


    Humans will continue. Our civilizations will end. It seems to have happened over and over again.

    I personally believe that most of us will continue in spirit/conscious form as that form came first and takes precedence in terms of existence.

    The earth always survives. I doubt she wants any of her children to die in cataclysm. Nonetheless, it happens.


    In his interview with Greg Carlson, Ben Davidson of Suspicious Observers said that he sees intelligence in the behavior of the sun. This is a man who is taking a scientific approach. A man who doesn't let that get in the way of seeing the bigger picture which goes beyond science.
    I don't think its about the odds... I think its about the degree to which man actually makes a difference. If the actuality of the impact is, in reality, less harmful than the economic atomic bomb that various "green new deals" would clearly cause (and I believe the odds highly favor this and more importantly to a massive degree) then when you couple that with the track record of the various actors pushing the (likely) scam... because the actual benefits of fossil fuels versus realistic alternatives (and anything realistic in the pipeline which is far, far from the dreams of the exuberant and energized AOC types) is a fact - especially the expansion of life with regards to longevity... all in all, it's a no brainer IMO.

    Having said all that - do I think humanity holds within its various expressions the types of humans who could sell the rest of the Earth, all life (including humanity and all our children) down the drain to make a few bucks? Yes... and so it's really pretty impossible for me to actually have (much less share) an truly informed opinion. I guess I just like to type.

    Apologies (and I really mean this) for my cynicism. I strive to be hopeful, I strive to be optimistic... and then I have a weird day like today and... maybe I should stay away from forums on days like this (though perhaps you are reading me in my most honest state).
    Last edited by Sammy, 11th June 2019 at 05:01.

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  13. #37
    Super Moderator United States Dreamtimer's Avatar
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    I prefer the honest state because then a person knows what they are dealing with.

    Neither the green new deal or agenda 21 are going to have time to have any impact. The only thing we have time for is to prepare ourselves.


    Many many people spent many years telling me that solar power would never work and batteries would never work and both are now working just swimmingly. I personally have no reason to have faith in the fossil fuel industry. Can you spell P L A S T I C?

    It's a petroleum product which will be with us for a very long time.

    Oh wait, here comes a cataclysm.

    Time for massive recycling on a global scale.

    Are we ready?

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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    I prefer the honest state because then a person knows what they are dealing with.

    Neither the green new deal or agenda 21 are going to have time to have any impact. The only thing we have time for is to prepare ourselves.


    Many many people spent many years telling me that solar power would never work and batteries would never work and both are now working just swimmingly. I personally have no reason to have faith in the fossil fuel industry. Can you spell P L A S T I C?

    It's a petroleum product which will be with us for a very long time.

    Oh wait, here comes a cataclysm.

    Time for massive recycling on a global scale.

    Are we ready?
    Solar and battery are nowhere near economically competitive and additionally, there are no technological breakthroughs on the horizon which suggest they could compete anytime soon.

    yet...

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/09...ge-everything/

    and...

    https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/br...ry?id=62884758

    and noted here -

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0507110452.htm

    so there's a real answer to the plastics issue...

    Are you aware of the power consumption costs it takes to make windmills and solar panels? They are so significant that the overall economic impact in converting to renewables would devastate the economies of the world.

    I, personally, would love to see our world have the technological capability of moving off fossil fuels (coal and atomic included)... and I also believe it could happen and would happen (if we survive ourselves - meaning if we don't nuke the planet into oblivion), but the reality is that fossil fuels have dozens of generations of reserves available before humanity is forced to shift to other solutions.
    Last edited by Sammy, 12th June 2019 at 02:19.

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    Quote Originally posted by Sammy View Post
    Solar and battery are nowhere near economically competitive and additionally, there are no technological breakthroughs on the horizon which suggest they could compete anytime soon. [...]
    I wouldn't be so sure of that, Brother. There was an interesting article on Slashdot this morning about how geothermal energy could radically overturn things.
    = DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR =

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    Super Moderator Norway Elen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally posted by Aragorn View Post
    I wouldn't be so sure of that, Brother. There was an interesting article on Slashdot this morning about how geothermal energy could radically overturn things.
    My brother in Norway is using this technology for approx. 15 years or so now, with great advantage. The colder the weather...the warmer the house.
    Whatever is true. Whatever is noble. Whatever is right. Whatever is lovely. Whatever is admirable. Anything of excellence and worthy of praise. Dwell on these things. Jesus Christ (I agree)

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    There have just been several acres of solar panels installed in our area.

    Out here in California there are solar panels all over the new million and up homes being built south of San Diego.

    The energy we use will be directly related to what people want and demand.

    Until nature changes things for us.

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    Quote Originally posted by Dreamtimer View Post
    There have just been several acres of solar panels installed in our area.

    Out here in California there are solar panels all over the new million and up homes being built south of San Diego.

    The energy we use will be directly related to what people want and demand.

    Until nature changes things for us.
    It is important to do the research with regards to what it takes to make a solar panel... ie. look at the potential "bad" that is caused in aquiring that which is needed to make a solar panel. This is what I was referring to.

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    BUT! Here I am engaging in a discussion that is truly a waste of your time (and mine). And I don't insinuate this based on "me" thinking "I am right" or "me" thinking others are either less right or outright wrong... no, no, no...

    I say this because I am firmly convinced that as long as the vast majority of mankind either (knowingly or not) base their world view on materialism or succumb to religious interpretations of that which otherwise fits well within monistic idealism... where pure monistic idealism remains a minor nuisance to those who are consciously manipulating our world and have no personal conscience as to how all that plays out for the rest of life (outside of their group we often call "the elite)... the slow crawl towards the ultimate goals of the elites will continue without major interruption.

    I prefer to see a world where humanity obtains their power from renewables and where humanity leaves as small a footprint as possible with regards to how we obtain our power needs and as to what we discard as waste and how we discard it. Wanting this is one thing, betting that this will happen is another. Somewhere in between is practicality which has to consider the real power of the elites. Sorry to say.
    Last edited by Sammy, 15th June 2019 at 04:03.

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    ...so switching gears (sort of) I came upon this -

    A materialist is like someone who says, “The oceans are made of salt,” and when pressed about the presence of water say, “Water comes from the salt.”

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    I like the new direction of desalination using amines. Aragorn posted about it. (it's very late and I'm sleepy and can't find the link right now).

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