Originally posted by
Chris
The more I look into it, the less I like it. I have dear friends, who live in Beijing and this thing is spreading quickly.
I mean, there is still a chance, however slim, that this whole thing will blow over, but the reaction of the Chinese government and the facts on the ground tell me otherwise. BTW, as of now, four neighbouring countries have sealed their borders with China and the US and UK governments advise against all but non-essential travel to the whole of China, which is a continent-sized country, even larger than the US.
Officially, only a few thousand people have gotten sick, but if that were true, why are they building brand new hospitals with record speed in Wuhan? From local reports, it would seem that Wuhan alone has tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of cases already. Pretty soon there will be millions and it has already spread beyond the borders of China. The silver lining seems to be that the death rate is not too bad so far perhaps 2-3 percent, although it must be said, the Spanish Influenza had roughly the same death rate, but a significantly lower R0 number, at around 1,8, so this outbreak is actually more serious. I have seen projections from serious publications that estimate around 20 percent of the global population will get it if current trends continue. That means around 1,5 billion well get sick and 30-40 million might die, all within the next year or so. I am also concerned about serious reports, not from whackjobs, but reputable sources, that the original source of the outbreak may have been the Wuhan biodefence lab, where they were experimenting with coronavirus strains collected from batcaves in the nearby area. Who knows if we'll ever find out the truth.