When I was little, my grandmother had a canary too. No, wait... I guess y'all talkin' 'bout sumtin' else, right? :ttr: :pQuote:
Originally posted by Wind
When I was little, my grandmother had a canary too. No, wait... I guess y'all talkin' 'bout sumtin' else, right? :ttr: :pQuote:
Originally posted by Wind
Yeah, my sister and her family are currently vacationing next door, on Tenerife...Quote:
Originally posted by BeastOfBologna
I don't want to scare them though, since there is little they can do at this point.
If there is an eruption, but no mega-landslide and hence no Tsunami, it won't affect them, except maybe in the form of flight cancellations and delays.
If there is a Mega-Tsunami, they'd be gone before they had a chance to do anything about it, since the waves that would hit Tenerife would be Hundreds of meters high.
In my own estimation (and that of experts), the eruption itself has about a 20 percent chance of happening in the next few days and weeks, but that in itself does not mean we will witness a mega-Tsunami as well. Nobody can predict where the volcano will erupt this time and what effect it will have on the unstable landmass and whether it will be destabilised by the next eruption or hang on there a bit longer. I trust in providence in this instance.
I get that, Chris, but I wouldn't live there with children ... Same reason I would never permanently relocate to the West Coast of the U.S. I'm not the the type to become desensitized. Dental patients will receive nitrous oxide as a calming agent if they get overwrought about dental visits which I don't but I do suffer from a generous degree of the 'white coat effect'. They had me inhale it for about 15 minutes, I warned them that I would be resistant against any calming influence not induced by me and they 'laughed' saying, "sure it will". My blood pressure continued to rise for the full 15 minutes and then they gave up.Quote:
Originally posted by Chris
Yeah sure, they're only visiting for a week. I sure as hell wouldn't want to live there long term right now...Quote:
Originally posted by BeastOfBologna
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Uh-oh...
After a bit of a let-up, seismic activity is increasing again and it is getting closer and closer to the surface. The last shallow earthquake was 1 km below the surface, now we're down to 0,1 km, or 100 metres below the surface, which tells me an eruption is imminent.
La Palma (Canary Islands (Spain)): The seismic activity under la Cumbre Vieja has picked up again during the past 12 hours, after having decreased significantly during the previous day.
The largest quake was a magnitude 3.2 event at 03:26 (UTC) today, at shallow depth of 0.1 km, and was felt by the population. Up to today moment and since the beginning of the series, 5391 earthquakes have been detected, of which 1102 have been located.
The maximum accumulated vertical deformation is around 10 cm in the area close to the earthquake swarm and its distribution is still compatible with a center of pressure from a magma intrusion under the same area. These movements have been observed both with the island's GNSS network and through InSAR data (Sentinel-1).
The real danger with the La Palma volcano is due to the massive amounts of water trapped in the erstwhile lava tubes, which will likely heat up during the next eruption, causing steam to basically blow off the top of the mountain. This is exacerbated by the fact that the instable top, formed from lava flows during previous eruptions and which has already slid 13 feet during the last eruption, is much harder and impermeable whereas the layer below it is porous and likely soaked with water. Due to this, the top is likely to just slide off into the ocean at some point, causing a mega-tsunami.
Video Explanation from a BBC documentary below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR0i...nel=BBCStudios
The Washington Post is now reporting that evacuations from the affected area have begun. Although they are not yet admitting this in public, likely to avert panic, this must be in preparation for an imminent eruption.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...94f_story.html
Eruption, quake threat prompts evacuations on Spanish island
MADRID — Spanish authorities began the evacuation of people with reduced mobility on the Atlantic island of La Palma on Sunday as experts warned of stronger earthquakes and the sustained threat of a volcanic eruption.
While government experts said that an eruption is not yet imminent, there has been an intensification of earthquakes near the surface of the island, which belongs to the Canary Islands archipelago.
Authorities ordered the evacuation of residents with reduced mobility from villages near the center of the seismic activity as a preventative measure. Some will be taken in at a military outpost on the island.
A 3.8-magnitude quake was recorded Sunday as vibrations from the seismic activity were felt on the surface. The Scientific Committee of the Volcano Risk Prevention Plan said that stronger earthquakes “are likely to be felt and may cause damage to buildings.” The committee of scientific experts also signaled out a stretch of the island’s southwest coast for the risk of rockfalls.
Emergency services have been ordered to be prepared to evacuate around 1,000 people if necessary, authorities said.
La Palma has been on alert this week after geologists reported an accumulation of molten rock under Cumbre Vieja, a dormant volcanic ridge near the island’s southern tip. Its last eruption was in 1971.
Volcano warnings are announced in accordance with the level of risk, rising through green, yellow, orange and red. The current yellow level requires residents in at-risk zone to be prepared to evacuate. Residents are also asked to report any sightings of gases, ash, changes in water levels or small tremors to emergency services.
Spanish geologists have been tracking the buildup of an “earthquake swarm” around La Palma for a week. An earthquake swarm is a cluster of quakes in one area during a short period and can indicate an approaching eruption.
Before a volcano erupts, there is a gradual increase in seismic activity that can build up over a prolonged period.
La Palma, with a population of 85,000, is one of eight islands in the Canary Islands archipelago. At their nearest point to Africa, they are 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Morocco.
Not only pressure but simple weight ... as the volcanic rock gains layers, more weight, it does seem inevitable.
Locals on LaPalma have uploaded a photograph which they say shows "Detachment." Part of the land which is FEARED to slide into the Atlantic Ocean and cause a Tsunami to the east coast of the United States, appears to have begun to DETACH at its top. There is a very clear tear in the forest atop the mountain showing bare earth along the uppermost ridge there the trees on the land have torn away from each other. If this photo shows what the locals claim, then the landslide could happen **today** Photo below:
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index...9-37-am-sunday
MORE:
Locals are now uploaded photos showing what they call a "Giant Land Fracture" a great crevice seems to have begun to open showing a long tear in the land from the top of the mountain toward the bottom. Dirt can be seen in the air from the tearing motion. It APPEARS the giant land mass feared to slide into the Atlantic Ocean, is now actually tearing away slowly from the island.
Those on the U.S. east coast must pay extra close attention to this today. Events are taking place at a greatly increased speed.
If the entire chunk of land (the size of Manhattan, NYC) tears away from the island and slides into the Atlantic Ocean, a Tsunami would be generated. That Tsunami would strike the US east coast seven hours later, possibly inundating several MILES on US coastline under tens of FEET of water, and destroying almost everything in its path as it comes ashore.
From the Official Government Volcano Monitoring Center:
Information update: INVOLCAN continues to monitor the ongoing seismicity on #LaPalma. The maximum single event is 4.2 on the Richter scale, recorded in the past hour (yellow star).
The Volcano on La Palma has now erupted, this has been confirmed by the Spanish Authorities.
There are lava flows, forest fires and fissures are forming.
UPDATE 2:28 PM EDT SUNDAY -- UH OH!
From Geologists and Volcanologists:
The geometry of this fault system and the timing of its formation in relation to episodes of vent opening during the eruption indicate that it is not the surface expression of a dyke. Instead, it is interpreted as being the first surface rupture along a developing zone of deformation and seaward movement within the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja: the volcano is therefore considered to be at an incipient stage of flank instability. Climatic factors or strain weakening along the Cumbre Nueva collapse structure may account for the recent development of this instability.
Browsing the news stories about the Volcanic eruption, there's barely any mention of the considerable Tsunami risk. If they do mention it, they dismiss it out of hand as something that has been debunked a long time ago.
Err, no.
I've posted plenty of supporting evidence here that this is a very real danger and no media outlet out there has reported on the massive cracks and fissures forming already, even though we are less than a day into the eruption itself, which could go on for months. Those photos, which I linked to but couldn't post here, are very concerning and they have been taken yesterday by local residents right around the time the eruption took place.
Now we are being told by "experts" that there is no tsunami risk. Presumably these are the same experts that told us just yesterday that an eruption wasn't imminent, even though even a blind a person could see that the magma was already very close to reaching the surface and it would blow imminently.
I don't like to go into conspiracy territory, but I get the feeling that there is a cover-up and the authorities are not being straight with the population as it would be impossible to evacuate more than a tiny fraction of the population on time, so they're just hoping for the best and keeping the bad news from getting out.
So, is the eruption in the 'danger zone', meaning is it the risk area that you have mentioned. As for 'conspiracy territory', I've often considered what the scientific world would do if they knew a planet busting asteroid was on its way ... :bolt:
People are afraid to be seen to 'cry wolf'. It's easier to make excuses like, "We didn't want panic."
If the eruption is on/in the zone of separation then there is a risk. It may be about the dykes and water pressure as discussed in one of the posted videos.
Volcanoes are very hard to predict.
How do you talk about the tsunami risk? Although panic is often used as an excuse, panic could certainly happen if folks really thought that kind of event was imminent. Panic alone can cause damage and make evacuation even more difficult.
What do you say? How do you even quantify the tsunami risk given all the variables?
I'm just wondering. I'm not trained in that sort of public communication.
Yes, it is exactly in the danger zone mentioned in the various documentaries and articles posted here.Quote:
Originally posted by BeastOfBologna
Mind you, that doesn't mean the landslide will happen, it just means that it could happen and the authorities should be preparing accordingly. I suspect the implications of a mega-tsunami in the Canaries are so horrific (everyone is dead, almost instantly), that they aren't willing to entertain the possibility that it could happen. I'm less sure about the risk to the rest of the Atlantic Rim, I suspect the impact wouldn't be quite as severe as feared, a notably smaller Tsunami would ensue than what has been projected in the worst case scenario.
There are things you could do to mitigate the risk.Quote:
Originally posted by Dreamtimer
Tell people to keep a packed emergency bag and a vehicle fuelled up, set up a warning system, so they can move to higher ground immediately upon receiving a tsunami alert on their phones. On Tenerife for instance, the capital is on pretty high ground as is most of the Island, if seismic activity shows the landslide is about to happen, they can be given the go-ahead to move to higher ground, whilst vulnerable people can be evacuated beforehand, perhaps even to the mainland. It really isn't rocket science.