Originally posted by
bsbray
Does anybody remember the Zeta Talk website? They were making predictions about things like Planet X/Nibiru appearing in the sky about 10 years ago or so. They'd make one prediction, and it wouldn't happen, so they gave an explanation and made another. And it wouldn't happen either. So they make another excuse for why nothing happened, and then make another prediction. It was kind of like this "Galactic Federation" thing that happened more recently. Two surprising things here: that they don't learn to stop making predictions and embarrassing themselves when they are obviously doing it wrong, and the other surprising thing is that people kept following it and taking it seriously anyway.
Yes, DD, even if someone has information wrong, or is even blatantly lying, it doesn't mean everything they say is false. I know what you're interested in doing amounts to cross-referencing what all of these kinds of people are saying between each other. Traditional research that historians do also involves cross-referencing primary sources, among other things. That's how I try to approach the problem. I just don't use statistics.
Also, I don't know if you've checked out the thread about the "survivors" videos yet, but it's largely based on the work of a Russian mathematician named Fomenko, who uses satistics to analyze history. I want to really start digging into his research when I have more time, and anyone who's good with statistics would be a lot of help looking through his work.