Atlantic Ocean Mega-Tsunami Alert - Volcano on La Palma is about to blow

[Chris]

There are increasingly worrying reports in the media about the possibility of a mega-Tsunami that would affect the whole Atlantic Ocean basin, from the Eastern coast of North and South America to the Western Coast of Africa and Europe, with some places likely to see a Tsunami Hundreds of feet high, travelling dozens of miles inland. Potential death toll in the millions, if evacuations aren't started on time.

The volcanic Island of La Palma in the Canaries is very likely to blow in a matter of days or weeks, which could cause a mountain-top the size of Manhattan Island to slide into the Atlantic Ocean, causing a Tsunami similar to what was witnessed in Indonesia a few years ago when the Volcanic Island Krakatao blew in a similar manner, except on a much-much larger scale.

This is the latest from El Pais:

https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2021-09-16/authorities-warn-of-possible-volcanic-eruption-on-canary-island-of-la-palma.html

And this is the most likely scenario as to what would take place if the worst were to occur:

https://riskandinsurance.com/mega-tsunami-wipes-out-east-coast/

This story was first reported by ex-CIA analyst and current radio-show host Hal Turner, who was woken up in the middle of the night by his ex-colleagues at the CIA who alerted him to the possibility of a mega-Tsunami engulfing the entire Eastern Seaboard and thus the need to prepare for a swift evacuation. He keeps an updated tally of events on his website.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami

There is probably no need to panic yet, but if La Palma does blow, we can start worrying about the potential landslide and mega-tsunami that can follow it.

On a personal note, I found about this immediately after I delivered my sister and her family, two adults and four children to the airport, where they promptly proceeded to fly to the Canaries. They will be spending a week on Tenerife, right next door to La Palma. Should the worst happen, the entire population of the Canary Islands will be wiped out in a matter of minutes as the "Slosh" generated by the landslide could be up to a kilometre high.

I'm not too worried yet as there have been many false alerts before, but it's worth keeping an eye on this nevertheless. If you are anywhere near the Atlantic Coast, in Southern England or Ireland, the Low Countries, etc... You should be paying attention too.

Update:

Apparently a meeting has been held on La Palma to raise the threat level to orange and start preparing evacuation procedures, but a panel of experts decided against it for now, due to lack of sufficient evidence that an eruption is imminent. Scientists will be taking soil measurements on site today to determine the risk.

https://thesaxon.org/earthquakes-approach-the-surface-of-la-palma/78696/

[Chris]

CSI has already tackled the LA PALMA TSUNAMI scenario in one of their episodes in spectacular fashion:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l00-mHMjgFM&t=7s

[Dreamtimer]

That's one of the mega-disasters which could befall us. Hoping for the best...

I'm not near the coast. The Chesapeake bay is closer. I don't really know how it would act in response to a tsunami. It's a very big bay. It wouldn't be pretty.

[Chris]

That's one of the mega-disasters which could befall us. Hoping for the best...

I'm not near the coast. The Chesapeake bay is closer. I don't really know how it would act in response to a tsunami. It's a very big bay. It wouldn't be pretty.

I would like to stress that a Mega-Tsunami is still extremely unlikely, however, if it were to happen, in the worst case scenario, the entire Eastern Seaboard, the entirety of Florida and a big chunk of the Gulf coast would be flooded in a larger version of what we saw in Japan. The cities around Chesapeake bay, such as Richmond and Washington DC would be washed away.

The Fema projection in such an event is approximately 65 million dead in the United States alone.

However, even if the landslide on La Palma were to occur, it could be more gradual than feared, in which case a much smaller Tsunami would ensue, possibly only a few metres high. It would still devastate low-lying areas such as Florida.

[Emil El Zapato]

I would like to stress that a Mega-Tsunami is still extremely unlikely, however, if it were to happen, in the worst case scenario, the entire Eastern Seaboard, the entirety of Florida and a big chunk of the Gulf coast would be flooded in a larger version of what we saw in Japan. The cities around Chesapeake bay, such as Richmond and Washington DC would be washed away.

The Fema projection in such an event is approximately 65 million dead in the United States alone.

However, even if the landslide on La Palma were to occur, it could be more gradual than feared, in which case a much smaller Tsunami would ensue, possibly only a few metres high. It would still devastate low-lying areas such as Florida.

I've heard that some people are 'sensitive' to Earth changes and I had never noticed if i was or not. The day before they announced the hurricane coming toward Houston I had a dental appt and they were unable to do the work because my blood pressure was too high. When I am unstressed my blood pressure is normal (no meds) but it shoots through the roof when i am stressed. Something like that never happened before. It sucked! ... :)


That's one of the mega-disasters which could befall us. Hoping for the best...

I'm not near the coast. The Chesapeake bay is closer. I don't really know how it would act in response to a tsunami. It's a very big bay. It wouldn't be pretty.

I wonder if it would have any effect on the Gulf Coast?


CSI has already tackled the LA PALMA TSUNAMI scenario in one of their episodes in spectacular fashion:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l00-mHMjgFM&t=7s

Am I losing it or is that in Spanish?

[Chris]

I wonder if it would have any effect on the Gulf Coast?


If it's just a small Tsunami, probably not, but if a mega-tsunami were to occur low-lying areas of the Gulf Coast would be flooded as well, possibly all the way to Houston.

[Emil El Zapato]

If it's just a small Tsunami, probably not, but if a mega-tsunami were to occur low-lying areas of the Gulf Coast would be flooded as well, possibly all the way to Houston.

yikes, that's all my nerves need, another doomsday scenario ... :)

[Dreamtimer]

I'm far enough west of Baltimore not to be in the danger zone, but it would affect much of what lies east of me drastically.

[Chris]

Mainstream News started reporting this story yesterday, probably after the El Pais article alerted them to it. Curiously, most are glossing over the Tsunami Risk, which is very real.

As for the Volcanic eruption itself, the magma is now less than 1 km below the surface. It is expected to blow in a matter of days. Nobody knows where the magma will exit the volcano, with this type of Volcano, a new passage is formed with each eruption.

If we're lucky, it will be in a place that won't destabilize the Manhattan-sized slab of rock that is slated to tumble into the Atlantic Ocean at some point (this is inevitable, though it might not happen for decades or centuries) and we'll only get a standard volcanic eruption. If we're unlucky, well, you know the drill, you'll have a few hours to get out of low-lying coastal areas that will be flooded by this Tsunami.

I watched the CSI Miami episode I posted earlier which is built around this exact scenario, but it was pretty weak overall. Still, interesting to see that this has been predicted and expected for decades now.

[Chris]

This study is from 2020, but it seems to the best estimate as to what would happen if the mega-landslide and with it, the mega-tsunami were to occur.

read://https_www.express.co.uk/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.express.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fscie nce%2F1318936%2Ftenerife-fears-la-palma-cumbre-vieja-volcano-canary-islands-mega-tsunami-atlantic-spt

Tenerife fears: How La Palma volcano eruption could trigger mega-tsunami

TENERIFE would be hit by a tsunami less than an hour after an eruption occurred on its neighbouring island, in a devastating natural disaster that could produce waves three times higher than ever recorded.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano is located on the island of La Palma, just a few hundred metres off the shore of Tenerife and is part of an active, albeit currently dormant, volcanic ridge. It has erupted twice in the last seven decades, first in 1949 and then 1971, but over the last few years, thousands of tremors have rumbled from the giant, leading scientists to fear it could erupt in the future. Researchers say a volcanic eruption would not only cause devastation for the Canary Islands from the initial blast but could trigger a vast undersea landslide, too.

This would set off a tsunami wave capable of inundating coastal regions thousands of kilometres away, as well as devastating the islands eastwards within 15 minutes to an hour.

The warning came from Dr Steven Ward, of the University of California, US, and Dr Simon Day, of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London, UK.

Writing in Geophysical Research Letters, they refined an earlier estimate of the likely consequences of the collapse of the western flank of the volcano.

They believe a build-up of groundwater could destabilise a block of rock up to 500km in size, which could break off in a future eruption, rushing into the sea at up to 350km an hour (220 mph).

The dome of water it caused would be 900 metres (2,950 feet) high, and the resulting tsunami, higher than any in recorded history, would travel outwards in an arc formation, reaching speeds of 800km an hour (500mph).

Waves 100 metre (330 feet) high would strike the African coast, while north-eastwards they would affect Spain, Portugal and France, and could still be approaching 12 metres (40 feet) when they hit the UK.

That is almost three times the maximum recorded after the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.

Dr Day said the waves striking the UK coast would not penetrate more than two or three kilometres inland.

He told the BBC in 2003: "Weird things happen when tsunamis enter harbours or estuaries.

"If those resonate at a certain frequency, that may substantially increase the damage."

[Dreamtimer]

This is likely where I first heard details about La Palma and potential tsunamis.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5Fwzk8WN6E

[Chris]

Updates from Hal Turner, who has been monitoring and reporting on the situation since monday night, when his CIA contacts alerted him to the seriousness of the situation with a middle-of-the night phone call on his encrypted phone.

UPDATE 9:37 AM FRIDAY EDT --

I have been contacted by a Geologist who chose to compare the actual tsunami that took place in Japan (Fukushima) in 2011 and the potential tsunami of a flank collapse of the Cumbre Viejo volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands. His analysis is terrifying.

He reports as follows:

To calculate the water displacement by a flank collapse of the Cumbre Viejo volcano on the island of LaPalma in the Canary Islands, you need to multiply 200 km x 100 km x SEVERAL METERS (how much the fault moved vertically). This is the total land area that is unstable and in danger of collapsing into the ocean.

If you do that, you come up with a much smaller number. "Several meters" is up to 10 meters. Let's say 10 meters, which is 0.01 km.

So, 200 cubic km. water displacement.

Or 100 cubic km. water displacement if the vertical move was 5 meters.

Another thing that have to be considered is the speed at which the fault which caused the 2011 Japan Tsunami (Fukushima) moved upward, which is MUCH SLOWER then a landslide.

All in all, the Fukushima tsunami was generated by a land mass at least 60% smaller (if 10 meters vertical move), or 80% smaller (if 5 meter vertical move) then Cumbre Vieja, with an energy also much smaller.

The angle at what the Japan (Fukushima) fault moved is also highly important, because the water displacement in the case of Fuku or Indonesia tsunamis were even smaller then 100 cubic km.

It is impossible to calculate the difference, but it is safe to say that Fuku tsunami would be but a fraction of the Cumbre Vieja tsunami, in water displacement, speed and energy.

Probably around 10% or less destructive power, and not even 0.01% the damage cost (material costs in impacted area only, not the instant collapse of world economy...), IF the Cumbre Vieja eruption will cause a 500 cubic km. landslide.

The aftermath of a 500 cubic km. landslide would be cataclysmic, and that is the only word that might describe it.

An interesting additional development:

The same guy from IGN, where we get the earthquake data, who made a public statement on twitter that their data is continuously reviewed and updated (including mags and depths), is the same guy who is now tweeting that certain local scientists and technical staff involved with their volcano warning system should not be saying certain things to the public re: possibility of eruption.

The more I read the more I think those in charge of the data are either self directed to, or being directed to, suppress data

Multiple locals tweeting they feel confused and unsure of plans, preps, and possibilities, citing conflicting messaging from officials and media

Also worth noting there are multiple local accounts in Canaries and Spain tweeting not to worry, no eruption coming, all is well, claiming to know, and all these accounts seem to be of a particular political identity.

MORE:

President of the Canary Islands says "if the eruption occurs, we have the mechanism to evacuate more than 2,000 people."

(Uh... population on La Palma is 85,000.)

Just like the U.S. government can't tell millions of people that a tsunami is going to wipe out the East Coast for the panic it would cause, these officials on La Palma can't tell the whole island to start evacuating.

Maybe "we can only evacuate 2,000 people" is their round about way of telling those smart enough to read between the lines and get out on their own while they can.



UPDATE 1:07 PM EDT FRIDAY --

Deformation is now at 12 cm.

(All the officials speaking have a super worried look on their faces. They only have the capacity to evacuate 2,000 people. The island has over 83,000.)

Authorities in La Palma, Canary Islands, have warned there could be a volcanic eruption in the coming days due to the sudden increase in seismic activity.

The National Geographic Institute in Spain has detected 20,650 earthquakes in an “earthquake swarm” in the Cumbre Vieja national park, around the Teneguia volcano in the south of the island.

On Tuesday, September 14, the Canary Island’s regional government put the island on yellow alert for a potential volcanic eruption because the quakes intensified and moved closer to the surface.

The yellow alert is the second of a four-level alert system.

[Emil El Zapato]

Not so coincidentally I heard news today that approximately 10 rogue waves are active in the world's oceans at any given time, the average height is about 90-100 ft and the theoretical maximum is 200 ft. They don't last long.

[Emil El Zapato]

If I had family there, I'd be getting the fork out ... period.

[Wind]

Every winter in earlier years my grandfather used to go to the Canaries, but I guess since he is gone now he won't have to worry about any tsunamis. Maybe not the best holiday location?

[Aragorn]

Every winter in earlier years my grandfather used to go to the Canaries

When I was little, my grandmother had a canary too. No, wait... I guess y'all talkin' 'bout sumtin' else, right? :ttr: :p

[Chris]

If I had family there, I'd be getting the fork out ... period.

Yeah, my sister and her family are currently vacationing next door, on Tenerife...

I don't want to scare them though, since there is little they can do at this point.

If there is an eruption, but no mega-landslide and hence no Tsunami, it won't affect them, except maybe in the form of flight cancellations and delays.

If there is a Mega-Tsunami, they'd be gone before they had a chance to do anything about it, since the waves that would hit Tenerife would be Hundreds of meters high.

In my own estimation (and that of experts), the eruption itself has about a 20 percent chance of happening in the next few days and weeks, but that in itself does not mean we will witness a mega-Tsunami as well. Nobody can predict where the volcano will erupt this time and what effect it will have on the unstable landmass and whether it will be destabilised by the next eruption or hang on there a bit longer. I trust in providence in this instance.

[Emil El Zapato]

Yeah, my sister and her family are currently vacationing next door, on Tenerife...

I don't want to scare them though, since there is little they can do at this point.

If there is an eruption, but no mega-landslide and hence no Tsunami, it won't affect them, except maybe in the form of flight cancellations and delays.

If there is a Mega-Tsunami, they'd be gone before they had a chance to do anything about it, since the waves that would hit Tenerife would be Hundreds of meters high.

In my own estimation (and that of experts), the eruption itself has about a 20 percent chance of happening in the next few days and weeks, but that in itself does not mean we will witness a mega-Tsunami as well. Nobody can predict where the volcano will erupt this time and what effect it will have on the unstable landmass and whether it will be destabilised by the next eruption or hang on there a bit longer. I trust in providence in this instance.

I get that, Chris, but I wouldn't live there with children ... Same reason I would never permanently relocate to the West Coast of the U.S. I'm not the the type to become desensitized. Dental patients will receive nitrous oxide as a calming agent if they get overwrought about dental visits which I don't but I do suffer from a generous degree of the 'white coat effect'. They had me inhale it for about 15 minutes, I warned them that I would be resistant against any calming influence not induced by me and they 'laughed' saying, "sure it will". My blood pressure continued to rise for the full 15 minutes and then they gave up.

[Chris]

I get that, Chris, but I wouldn't live there with children ... Same reason I would never permanently relocate to the West Coast of the U.S. I'm not the the type to become desensitized. Dental patients will receive nitrous oxide as a calming agent if they get overwrought about dental visits which I don't but I do suffer from a generous degree of the 'white coat effect'. They had me inhale it for about 15 minutes, I warned them that I would be resistant against any calming influence not induced by me and they 'laughed' saying, "sure it will". My blood pressure continued to rise for the full 15 minutes and then they gave up.

Yeah sure, they're only visiting for a week. I sure as hell wouldn't want to live there long term right now...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Uh-oh...

After a bit of a let-up, seismic activity is increasing again and it is getting closer and closer to the surface. The last shallow earthquake was 1 km below the surface, now we're down to 0,1 km, or 100 metres below the surface, which tells me an eruption is imminent.

La Palma (Canary Islands (Spain)): The seismic activity under la Cumbre Vieja has picked up again during the past 12 hours, after having decreased significantly during the previous day.
The largest quake was a magnitude 3.2 event at 03:26 (UTC) today, at shallow depth of 0.1 km, and was felt by the population. Up to today moment and since the beginning of the series, 5391 earthquakes have been detected, of which 1102 have been located.


The maximum accumulated vertical deformation is around 10 cm in the area close to the earthquake swarm and its distribution is still compatible with a center of pressure from a magma intrusion under the same area. These movements have been observed both with the island's GNSS network and through InSAR data (Sentinel-1).

[Chris]

The real danger with the La Palma volcano is due to the massive amounts of water trapped in the erstwhile lava tubes, which will likely heat up during the next eruption, causing steam to basically blow off the top of the mountain. This is exacerbated by the fact that the instable top, formed from lava flows during previous eruptions and which has already slid 13 feet during the last eruption, is much harder and impermeable whereas the layer below it is porous and likely soaked with water. Due to this, the top is likely to just slide off into the ocean at some point, causing a mega-tsunami.

Video Explanation from a BBC documentary below:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR0iHTGkJX4&ab_channel=BBCStudios

[Chris]

The Washington Post is now reporting that evacuations from the affected area have begun. Although they are not yet admitting this in public, likely to avert panic, this must be in preparation for an imminent eruption.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/spanish-island-braces-for-possible-earthquakes-eruption/2021/09/19/4b52157c-1933-11ec-bea8-308ea134594f_story.html

Eruption, quake threat prompts evacuations on Spanish island

MADRID — Spanish authorities began the evacuation of people with reduced mobility on the Atlantic island of La Palma on Sunday as experts warned of stronger earthquakes and the sustained threat of a volcanic eruption.

While government experts said that an eruption is not yet imminent, there has been an intensification of earthquakes near the surface of the island, which belongs to the Canary Islands archipelago.

Authorities ordered the evacuation of residents with reduced mobility from villages near the center of the seismic activity as a preventative measure. Some will be taken in at a military outpost on the island.

A 3.8-magnitude quake was recorded Sunday as vibrations from the seismic activity were felt on the surface. The Scientific Committee of the Volcano Risk Prevention Plan said that stronger earthquakes “are likely to be felt and may cause damage to buildings.” The committee of scientific experts also signaled out a stretch of the island’s southwest coast for the risk of rockfalls.

Emergency services have been ordered to be prepared to evacuate around 1,000 people if necessary, authorities said.

La Palma has been on alert this week after geologists reported an accumulation of molten rock under Cumbre Vieja, a dormant volcanic ridge near the island’s southern tip. Its last eruption was in 1971.

Volcano warnings are announced in accordance with the level of risk, rising through green, yellow, orange and red. The current yellow level requires residents in at-risk zone to be prepared to evacuate. Residents are also asked to report any sightings of gases, ash, changes in water levels or small tremors to emergency services.

Spanish geologists have been tracking the buildup of an “earthquake swarm” around La Palma for a week. An earthquake swarm is a cluster of quakes in one area during a short period and can indicate an approaching eruption.

Before a volcano erupts, there is a gradual increase in seismic activity that can build up over a prolonged period.

La Palma, with a population of 85,000, is one of eight islands in the Canary Islands archipelago. At their nearest point to Africa, they are 100 kilometers (60 miles) from Morocco.

[Emil El Zapato]

Not only pressure but simple weight ... as the volcanic rock gains layers, more weight, it does seem inevitable.

[Chris]

Locals on LaPalma have uploaded a photograph which they say shows "Detachment." Part of the land which is FEARED to slide into the Atlantic Ocean and cause a Tsunami to the east coast of the United States, appears to have begun to DETACH at its top. There is a very clear tear in the forest atop the mountain showing bare earth along the uppermost ridge there the trees on the land have torn away from each other. If this photo shows what the locals claim, then the landslide could happen **today** Photo below:

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami#update-9-37-am-sunday

MORE:

Locals are now uploaded photos showing what they call a "Giant Land Fracture" a great crevice seems to have begun to open showing a long tear in the land from the top of the mountain toward the bottom. Dirt can be seen in the air from the tearing motion. It APPEARS the giant land mass feared to slide into the Atlantic Ocean, is now actually tearing away slowly from the island.


Those on the U.S. east coast must pay extra close attention to this today. Events are taking place at a greatly increased speed.

If the entire chunk of land (the size of Manhattan, NYC) tears away from the island and slides into the Atlantic Ocean, a Tsunami would be generated. That Tsunami would strike the US east coast seven hours later, possibly inundating several MILES on US coastline under tens of FEET of water, and destroying almost everything in its path as it comes ashore.

From the Official Government Volcano Monitoring Center:

Information update: INVOLCAN continues to monitor the ongoing seismicity on #LaPalma. The maximum single event is 4.2 on the Richter scale, recorded in the past hour (yellow star).

[Chris]

The Volcano on La Palma has now erupted, this has been confirmed by the Spanish Authorities.

There are lava flows, forest fires and fissures are forming.

[Chris]

UPDATE 2:28 PM EDT SUNDAY -- UH OH!

From Geologists and Volcanologists:

The geometry of this fault system and the timing of its formation in relation to episodes of vent opening during the eruption indicate that it is not the surface expression of a dyke. Instead, it is interpreted as being the first surface rupture along a developing zone of deformation and seaward movement within the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja: the volcano is therefore considered to be at an incipient stage of flank instability. Climatic factors or strain weakening along the Cumbre Nueva collapse structure may account for the recent development of this instability.

[Chris]

Browsing the news stories about the Volcanic eruption, there's barely any mention of the considerable Tsunami risk. If they do mention it, they dismiss it out of hand as something that has been debunked a long time ago.

Err, no.

I've posted plenty of supporting evidence here that this is a very real danger and no media outlet out there has reported on the massive cracks and fissures forming already, even though we are less than a day into the eruption itself, which could go on for months. Those photos, which I linked to but couldn't post here, are very concerning and they have been taken yesterday by local residents right around the time the eruption took place.

Now we are being told by "experts" that there is no tsunami risk. Presumably these are the same experts that told us just yesterday that an eruption wasn't imminent, even though even a blind a person could see that the magma was already very close to reaching the surface and it would blow imminently.

I don't like to go into conspiracy territory, but I get the feeling that there is a cover-up and the authorities are not being straight with the population as it would be impossible to evacuate more than a tiny fraction of the population on time, so they're just hoping for the best and keeping the bad news from getting out.

[Emil El Zapato]

So, is the eruption in the 'danger zone', meaning is it the risk area that you have mentioned. As for 'conspiracy territory', I've often considered what the scientific world would do if they knew a planet busting asteroid was on its way ... :bolt:

[Dreamtimer]

People are afraid to be seen to 'cry wolf'. It's easier to make excuses like, "We didn't want panic."

If the eruption is on/in the zone of separation then there is a risk. It may be about the dykes and water pressure as discussed in one of the posted videos.

Volcanoes are very hard to predict.


How do you talk about the tsunami risk? Although panic is often used as an excuse, panic could certainly happen if folks really thought that kind of event was imminent. Panic alone can cause damage and make evacuation even more difficult.

What do you say? How do you even quantify the tsunami risk given all the variables?

I'm just wondering. I'm not trained in that sort of public communication.

[Chris]

So, is the eruption in the 'danger zone', meaning is it the risk area that you have mentioned. As for 'conspiracy territory', I've often considered what the scientific world would do if they knew a planet busting asteroid was on its way ... :bolt:

Yes, it is exactly in the danger zone mentioned in the various documentaries and articles posted here.

Mind you, that doesn't mean the landslide will happen, it just means that it could happen and the authorities should be preparing accordingly. I suspect the implications of a mega-tsunami in the Canaries are so horrific (everyone is dead, almost instantly), that they aren't willing to entertain the possibility that it could happen. I'm less sure about the risk to the rest of the Atlantic Rim, I suspect the impact wouldn't be quite as severe as feared, a notably smaller Tsunami would ensue than what has been projected in the worst case scenario.

[Chris]

People are afraid to be seen to 'cry wolf'. It's easier to make excuses like, "We didn't want panic."

If the eruption is on/in the zone of separation then there is a risk. It may be about the dykes and water pressure as discussed in one of the posted videos.

Volcanoes are very hard to predict.


How do you talk about the tsunami risk? Although panic is often used as an excuse, panic could certainly happen if folks really thought that kind of event was imminent. Panic alone can cause damage and make evacuation even more difficult.

What do you say? How do you even quantify the tsunami risk given all the variables?

I'm just wondering. I'm not trained in that sort of public communication.

There are things you could do to mitigate the risk.

Tell people to keep a packed emergency bag and a vehicle fuelled up, set up a warning system, so they can move to higher ground immediately upon receiving a tsunami alert on their phones. On Tenerife for instance, the capital is on pretty high ground as is most of the Island, if seismic activity shows the landslide is about to happen, they can be given the go-ahead to move to higher ground, whilst vulnerable people can be evacuated beforehand, perhaps even to the mainland. It really isn't rocket science.

[Wind]

Could perhaps roast some marshmallow there.

-FOqKHN9wN8

[Aragorn]

According to what I've just read, the mega-tsunami theory is highly contested, and the reports seem to indicate that...



If the volcano does collapse, it'll be in fragments. It's not high enough yet to be so unstable that it would collapse as a whole. It is estimated that it would take another 10'000 years before the volcano gets high enough to have thin and fragile walls.


The fault line is not deep enough to create a landslide.

[Chris]

According to what I've just read, the mega-tsunami theory is highly contested, and the reports seem to indicate that...



If the volcano does collapse, it'll be in fragments. It's not high enough yet to be so unstable that it would collapse as a whole. It is estimated that it would take another 10'000 years before the volcano gets high enough to have thin and fragile walls.


The fault line is not deep enough to create a landslide.


Yes, I've read that report too.

To me it looks like one of those "debunking" pieces that the establishment routinely pops out whenever they want to allay fears or avoid a panic.

It doesn't address any of the more serious concerns, such as the deep fissures and cracks that have already formed (not reported anywhere in the media, except by citizens on the spot), or the potential for the eruption and related seismic activity to get much-much worse over the coming weeks. It also doesn't address the fact that the slab slated to slide into the Atlantic is made of impermeable volcanic rock and the layer below it is porous, so when steam is created by the lava as it flows into the old lava tubes now filled with water, the whole edifice can become unstable and slide into the ocean in one big plop.

That is the real danger here, though I admit there is no proof that it will happen during this eruption, it may be centuries until we have to deal with the consequences. Or, it might happen tomorrow. The point is to be aware of the danger and be prepared for the eventuality, so when it does happen, you aren't caught off guard.

[Chris]

At least El Pais, the leading Spanish daily, is honest about the dangers presented by this volcanic eruption, in stark contrast to local leaders who are still worrying about tourist dollars rather than the epic danger that threatens the islands' population with extinction. They even suggested tourists might want to go there to see the Volcano in person. Some people are still clueless how dangerous this eruption really is and the scary thing is, they are in charge...

https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2021-09-21/from-ash-to-acid-rain-seven-dangers-of-the-volcanic-eruption-in-la-palma.html

From ash to acid rain: Seven dangers of the volcanic eruption in La Palma

Spain’s National Geographic Institute outlines several risks including toxic gases and lava flows, which have already swallowed up houses, infrastructure and crops on the Canary Island

Juan Acosta Rodríguez, a local of Las Indias neighborhood in La Palma, was the only official victim of the eruption at Teneguía on October 26, 1971 – the last one in the Canary Island before a new volcano erupted on Sunday. He died from inhaling toxic gases in the area of Los Percheles. It is suspected that this was also linked to the cause of death of photographer Heriberto Felipe Hernández, from Santa Cruz de La Palma, who died in hospital with poisoning symptoms after going to the affected area on several excursions. Both were victims of one of the main dangers identified by Spain’s National Geographic Institute (IGN) following a volcanic eruption: lava flows, ash, pyroclastic flow, gas emission, lahars, landslides and tsunamis.


1. Lava flows. This is the magma that has reached the surface during a volcanic eruption and flows effusively away from the vent. The more viscous it is, the less distance the flow will travel, but the thicker it will be. If it is more fluid, the lava flow, being less thick, can cover great expanses. Speaking about the eruption in La Palma, Mariano Hernández Zapata, the president of the island council, explained: “A lava flow measuring six meters tall is literally eating up the houses, infrastructure and crops that it is finding on its path toward the coast in the valley of Aridane.” So far, more than a hundred homes have been swallowed up by the lava flows in the wake of the eruption in La Palma, which began on Sunday. Scientists studying the situation estimate that the lava flow will enter the sea from the coast of Tazacorte, possibly from Playa Nuevo beach in Los Guirres.

2. Ash. The Canary Islands Volcano Emergency Plan (Pevolca) has warned that ash being spewed out from the volcano in the Cabeza de Vaca area of Cumbre Vieja national park could cause “injuries to respiratory airways, eyes and open injuries as well as skin irritation.” For this reason, Pevolca recommends against exposure to ash. According to the IGN, “during an explosive eruption, a mix of gases and pyroclasts [solid fragments of volcanic material] is released into the atmosphere.” “Molten bombs” are larger fragments that are ejected like bullets from the center of emission, but have less reach, of just a few kilometers. The rest of the particles are lifted up by volcanic gases and create a cloud, which can become a convective plume stretching tens of kilometers. When the density of gases and particles is the same as the surrounding atmosphere, it begins to “rain” ash, which is dispersed by the wind and turbulence, and can cover enormous areas, spanning up to thousands of square meters and reaching meters in depth. With respect to the volcano on La Palma, “if a more intense explosive phase is generated, the ash could reach a larger area and affect, for example, the airport. But we have to wait to see its progress,” explains Joan Martí, a volcanologist and head of the Geosciences Barcelona group at Spain’s national research center CSIC.

3. Pyroclastic flow. If the plume created by an explosive eruption does not have enough energy or is less dense than the surrounding atmosphere, a collapse happens, creating dense flows that mix high-temperature gases and solid particles (up to 700ºC), and travel at very high speeds (up to 550 kilometers per hour). When these flows are more diluted, their movement is more turbulent and they are called pyroclastic waves. Both types are called pyroclastic flows.

4. Gas emanation. The volcano in La Palma has emitted between 6,000 and 9,000 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) a day, according to the preliminary calculations from the Canary Volcanology Institute (Involcan). The gases that are initially dissolved in magma separate from the magma during the eruption and are released into the atmosphere at high temperatures and speeds. As well as being violently ejected, the gases can also escape from small fissures or vents in the volcano’s edifice and in the surrounding area. This happens more or less continuously, creating what is known as fumaroles. Some gases, such as carbon dioxide, can escape by diffusion through the earth in large areas around the volcano edifice and create a cloud that moves just a few centimeters above the ground, depending on the topography, until it is dispersed in the atmosphere.

Gases ejected into the atmosphere can cause acid rain when they meet with condensation or the beginning of rainfall. The gases can trigger headaches, vomiting, choking and skin and eye irritation, as well as damage crops and metal structures. These emissions, which can reach hundreds of kilometers, can also cause air and water pollution. The Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute (IPMA), believes that ash, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide from the volcano in La Palma could reach the Portuguese island of Madeira, “although the forecast impact for this region does not correspond to a critical situation,” they say.

5. Lahars or mudflow. The IGN also lists lahars as a danger following an eruption. This is a flow of volcanic material, particularly ash, that is mobilized by rain, the melting of ice and snow and the collapse of land. It behaves similarly to a flood, it is channeled down ravines, taking with it all in its path, which increases its destructive power. Lahars can happen during an eruption, or months afterwards following torrential rain, according to the IGN, meaning the danger will persist long after the eruption in La Palma has ceased.

6. Landslides. The fall of hard and soft material from the volcano edifice can create an unstable structure, leading part of the edifice to collapse. Water or the entry of large volumes of molten rock could cause a landslide.

7. Tsunamis. A tsunami, a giant surge of water, could be triggered by a landslide in the volcano edifice, mass pyroclastic flows or an underwater eruption. These waves can reach meters in height and grow to dozens or even hundreds of meters from the shore.

[Dreamtimer]

Pyroclastic flows scare me. And Lahores.

[Chris]

Pyroclastic flows scare me. And Lahores.

Yes, in the case of Mt St Helens that was the scariest part. It happened days after the initial eruption, if I recall.

[Dreamtimer]

When my son went to college in Tacoma, Washington I told him to be sure to have a plan.

We flew by Mt. Rainer. It's stunning. It dwarfs all the peaks around it.

[Dreamtimer]

I don't personally discount the possibility of a tsunami because we live in strange times where very unlikely events are happening all around us. Having said that, here are some perspectives about a potential tsunami.



This study from 2006 determined that the risk of tsunami wasn't immediate. It will take maybe another 10K years according to those researchers.


The researchers calculate that the surest way to cause a landslide is to wait for at least another 10,000 years. The Cumbre Vieja volcano steadily grows and this causes the flanks of the volcano to become steeper and less stable. ‘A combination of substantial vertical growth and eruption forces will most probably act to trigger failure. To reach substantial growth, a time span in the order of 10,000 years will be required’, Van Berlo states.

At a glance, La Palma doesn’t look very solid even today. It has lost chunks of its flanks at least twice in prehistoric times already. And during the last eruption, in 1949, a two kilometer long rip appeared at the top of Cumbre Vieja’s southwestern flank. But the Delft researchers point out that the cut is nothing more than the result of an innocent, shallow phenomenon, for example local adaptive settlements of the volcano. What’s more, the ancient collapses are good evidence La Palma is stable now: the collapses only occurred when La Palma was much higher than today, at least 2,000 and 2,500-3,000 meter respectively.

from phys.org (https://phys.org/news/2006-09-killer-la-palma-tsunami-distant.html)


Geology Hub doesn't see a tsunami as being likely either.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZskrJZzRX0&t=60s

"....two recent flows, one in 1480 and one in 1949."

[Chris]

Regarding the studies cited earlier, none of them take into account the incredible destructive power of nature and the unpredictability of such events.

This Volcano is a beast and to me, it seems the island is actually being slowly torn apart by this eruption, even though you can only see the initial signs of it. Residents are now reporting fissures and cracks in the capital, which is nowhere near the site of the eruption. This thing is just getting started and every day, there are new, even stronger seismic events.

Anybody still on the island is frankly an idiot, they should take the first opportunity to leave. If I were in charge, I'd immediately start evacuating the entire population to the mainland, or at least as far as Tenerife and move them to higher ground.

Cue to local politicians who are still clueless and claiming this will increase tourist arrivals. This, whilst their island is being slowly torn apart by seismic forces.

The potential here is for a natural disaster far worse than Krakatoa, though very similar in nature.

Thankfully my sister and her family are back home safely, I just picked them up from the airport. None too soon, because things are about to get ugly on the Canary Islands...

[Dreamtimer]

Krakatoa was what I was thinking about. Let's hope not. We've already got several nasty dynamics underway. The last thing we need is another element to create a 'perfect storm'.

[Chris]

I'm hopeful, that we will avoid the worst case scenario (this time around) and this will turn out to be a natural disaster of local concern, rather than a more widespread one. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.

For the locals on La Palma, the outlook is bleak. Authorities are still downplaying the danger and talking about rebuilding the communities destroyed by the lava flows using EU funds. What a genius idea. When will people learn that building on an active volcano, that erupts every few decades is a bad idea.

I rewatched the mediocre, but instructive disaster movie Dante's Peak last night. What struck me as the most noteworthy was the attitude of the local authorities and even government experts. They would risk the death of thousands and wait until the very last moment to evacuate, rather than do the right thing and get people out of harm's way early.

From local reports, it seems the whole island is very unstable seismologically at the moment and new craters spewing out lava pop up every few hours (there are now 10). There are also photos and reports of major cracks and fissures forming dozens of miles from the volcano eruption site. It seems to me that the island is just not a safe place to be right now, there is potential for this to get much-much worse.

[Aragorn]

I'm hopeful, that we will avoid the worst case scenario (this time around) and this will turn out to be a natural disaster of local concern, rather than a more widespread one. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.

For the locals on La Palma, the outlook is bleak. Authorities are still downplaying the danger and talking about rebuilding the communities destroyed by the lava flows using EU funds. What a genius idea. When will people learn that building on an active volcano, that erupts every few decades is a bad idea.

I rewatched the mediocre, but instructive disaster movie Dante's Peak last night. What struck me as the most noteworthy was the attitude of the local authorities and even government experts. They would risk the death of thousands and wait until the very last moment to evacuate, rather than do the right thing and get people out of harm's way early.

From local reports, it seems the whole island is very unstable seismologically at the moment and new craters spewing out lava pop up every few hours (there are now 10). There are also photos and reports of major cracks and fissures forming dozens of miles from the volcano eruption site. It seems to me that the island is just not a safe place to be right now, there is potential for this to get much-much worse.

I don't think they're treating this too lightly, Chris. According to my information, already 5'000 people have been evacuated off the island ─ evacuations are still ongoing as we speak ─ and the reports indicate an expectation that the eruption will continue for at least three more months.

Of course, whether it is wise to seek residence in the vicinity of a periodically active volcano is another thing. One would presume that Pompeii had given humanity a clear warning sign. But then again, "humanity" and "wisdom" don't quite fit in the same sentence together either.

:noidea:

[Chris]

I don't think they're treating this too lightly, Chris. According to my information, already 5'000 people have been evacuated off the island ─ evacuations are still ongoing as we speak ─ and the reports indicate an expectation that the eruption will continue for at least three more months.

Actually those 5000 people were evacuated within the island, to the unaffected northern section from the southern tip, where this eruption is currently taking place.


Of course, whether it is wise to seek residence in the vicinity of a periodically active volcano is another thing. One would presume that Pompeii had given humanity a clear warning sign. But then again, "humanity" and "wisdom" don't quite fit in the same sentence together either.

:noidea:

The attraction is clear in terms of this being the Canary Islands. Perfect year-round weather, natural beauty and an otherwise safe and peaceful environment.

But this is down to the local government, they should really not be issuing permits to build on an active volcano. However, Spanish authorities are famously corrupt and inept.

[Dreamtimer]

People build in dangerous areas regularly. Coastal areas are the biggest example. Hurricanes, floods and more but they just rebuild. That's kinda how we are.

[Chris]

We're only a few days in, but things are getting far-far worse on La Palma. It is finally dawning on the local authorities that this isn't some game or a fetching tourist attraction. From the report below, I'd bet a Mt St Helens type scenario, with a lateral explosion that blows up most of the mountain, is a very real possibility. All flights have now been cancelled in and out of the island, so authorities might have missed their window to evacuate the population. The Mega-Tsunami risk still hasn't dissipated either, which you can tell from all the "debunking" videos and articles that are popping up everywhere. This isn't some fringe theory guys, it was proposed some of the foremost experts in the field and the science behind it remains as sound as ever. Be Aware and Be Prepared if you are anywhere near the danger zone.


https://english.elpais.com/spain/2021-09-24/volcanic-activity-increases-on-la-palma-prompting-new-evacuations-and-flight-cancelations.html

Volcanic activity increases on La Palma, prompting new evacuations and flight cancelations

Fire crews have had to withdraw from the neighborhood of Todoque due to increased pyroclastic material and ash being expelled. The Cabinet will declare the area a disaster zone next week

Activity at the new volcano that erupted on Sunday on the Canary Island of La Palma greatly increased on Friday afternoon, prompting the authorities to evacuate more nearby municipalities and cancel flights. A series of explosions have been heard throughout the day, while more pyroclastic material and ash was being spewed out from the Cumbre Vieja area. What’s more, a new vent has opened up, from which lava is flowing.

Around a thousand people have had to be evacuated from the areas of Tajuya (644 inhabitants) and Tacande de Abajo (319), as well as the part of Tacande de Arriba that had not already been cleared of residents (385).

Meanwhile, airlines Iberia, Binter and Canaryfly have had to suspend all of their flights to and from La Palma, which is part of Spain’s Canary Islands, located off the northwestern coast of Africa.

The firefighters in the neighborhood of Todoque had to withdraw from the area due to the increasing amount of pyroclastic material and ash that was falling in the area.

The explosions had become much more frequent by Friday evening and were audible in all areas of the municipalities of El Paso, where the volcano is located, and Los Llanos de Aridane, which is the most-populated area of the island.

The Civil Guard also evacuated the area three kilometers from the volcano where the National Geographic Institute had set up its operation center, clearing the area of onlookers and journalists who were broadcasting from the spot, located next to La Sagrada Familia church.

Sidewalk cafés in El Paso were left deserted as members of the public sought shelter inside and followed developments on the television. They were also fleeing from the ever-increasing ash, the continuous passing of emergency vehicles, and the impact of the shockwaves from the explosions, which are rattling the windows of buildings throughout the municipality. All of this was taking place under the dark skies caused by the smoke from the eruption.

The regional premier of the Canary Islands government, Ángel Víctor Torres, announced on Friday that a first round of financial aid, worth €13 million, would be released for those affected by the volcano, lava from which has completely destroyed hundreds of homes and other properties. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez also announced today that the Cabinet would next week designate the island as a disaster zone.

[Chris]

There are reports of small landslides off the Western Coast and new eruptions underwater, also off the Western coast. The large slab of land we are all worried about has moved a few inches, causing the landslides, but not as much as during the last eruption, when it slid towards the sea by 11 feet.

The eruption itself is getting worse, more villages were evacuated and there is now a health hazard as the lava flow nears the ocean, which will release toxic gases all over the island. Nearby residents have been advised to stay indoors.

A large number of La Palma residents are trying to get off the island, but air traffic remains suspended due to ash emissions, so the only way off the island is by ferry. There are large queues forming at ferry terminals.

[Dreamtimer]

INVOLCAN describes the morning plume as creating gravity waves in the atmosphere:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAWwgt8WEAUon3r?format=jpg&name=medium

From Copernicus EMS:

Our #RapidMappingTeam has released its 9th monitoring product for #LaPalma Flag of Spain using a new radar image

It shows:

589 buildings destroyed (+76 compared to Monit08)
The lava flow covers 258 ha (+20.5 ha in 19h)
21 km of roads destroyed

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAWw7kSXIAM_fEG?format=jpg&name=medium

[Dreamtimer]

Waning volcanic activity from the 26th through the 27th:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAR7T4OWUAI9vX5?format=jpg&name=medium

And then (https://www.canarianweekly.com/posts/la-palma-volcano-reactivates),


The volcano in Cumbre Vieja, on the island of La Palma, has started to emit smoke and lava again just a few minutes ago, after the volcanic tremors almost disappeared early this morning, as confirmed by the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (Involcan) on Twitter saying "the re-emission of lava in the main cone is also confirmed, fortunately without a large explosion.”

After the stoppage of activity this morning, experts considered the possibility that the eruption could move to the south of the island due to the increase in seismic activity registered by the IGN in the municipality of Fuencaliente.

Monitoring of seismic activity is continuing in this area as 16 earthquakes were measured this morning at between 2.6 and 3.2 on the Richter scale, although they haven’t reported any change in the deformation of the earth’s surface.

However, the Geological Mining Institute of Spain (IGME) warned that the volcano "did not stop", but entered "a phase of rest; which is normal". Their coordinator, who was in the emission area last night monitoring its activity, has indicated that it is "unlikely" that it has been plugged and ends in a large explosion.



From this morning (https://www.canarianweekly.com/posts/ign-registers-two-new-earthquakes):


The National Geographic Institute (IGN) has reported that they have registered two new earthquakes in the south of the island of La Palma this morning, specifically, in the municipality of Fuencaliente, the same area as yesterday.

Following a mini seismic swarm that was felt by the public in the same town during the period that the volcano ceased activity yesterday morning, monitoring has increased in the area as there are fears that the magma is looking for another way out of the ground.

The first of the new quakes happened at 9.35am this morning at a depth of 11kms and reached a magnitude of 2.9 on the Richter scale, then half an hour later at 10.05am another 2.7-degree earthquake took place, located 14 kilometres below the surface.

An eruption in another part of the island is not ruled out although the fact the main cone is still releasing magma should prevent this from happening, as it would be more likely if that one was blocked.

[Dreamtimer]

This is quite a shot:

https://canaryfone.b-cdn.net/article-resources/image-loader/medium/28531

[Chris]

UPDATE 9:49 AM EDT --

Bill McGuire is one of the scientists who investigated La Palma back in the late 1990's and issued the cautionary warning that a future earthquake could cause the ridge of Cumbre Viejo to collapse in a massive landlside, into the Atlantic Ocean. At the time, he theorized that there would be a massive, Atlantic-wide Tsunami that would reach the US east coast within 7 to 8 hours, wiping out the major cities in the eastern USA.

He has now chimed-in on the ongoing LaPalma eruption, and what he has to say, is VERY not good:


Bill McGuire
@ProfBillMcGuire
Worrying that a new deep quake swarm has begun beneath the #CumbreVieja ridge.

This could herald the rise of more magma in the vicinity of the fractures that opened up in the 1949 #eruption.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAc6ClrWQAMVCLk?format=jpg&name=small

MORE:

According to the Seismographs, the volcano has increased intensity today; almost ALL of the readings are "pegged" off the scales!

[Dreamtimer]

Radar image of the volcano.

https://volcanodiscovery.de/uploads/pics/radar_l.jpg

[Chris]

Volcano eruption getting worse. Two new vents opened up recently causing new lava flows, accompanied by serious earthquakes. No sign of further landslides, thank goodness, but there are visible gravity waves emanating from the volcano, indicating the immense power of the ongoing eruption. Still a dangerous situation that needs monitoring.

[Dreamtimer]

The Cumbre Vieja volcano was “much more aggressive”, almost two weeks after it erupted on the island of La Palma, said Miguel Ángel Morcuende, the technical director of the Canary Islands’ emergency volcano response department.

Overnight, scientists recorded eight new earthquakes up to magnitude 3.5.

The eruption was sending gas and ash up to 6,000 metres into the air, officials said.

The prompt evacuation of more than 6,000 people since the 19 September eruption helped prevent casualties.

A new area of solidified lava where the molten rock is flowing into the sea extends over more than 20ha (50 acres).

The volcano has so far emitted some 80m cubic metres of molten rock, scientists estimate – more than double the amount in the island’s last eruption in 1971.

The lava has so far destroyed or partially destroyed more than 1,000 buildings, including homes and farming infrastructure, and entombed around 709ha on the Spanish archipelago off north-west Africa.


from the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/03/canary-islands-volcano-much-more-aggressive-as-new-fissures-erupt)


One of the cones of the volcano that has been emitting lava in recent weeks has given way and collapsed, resulting in several of the active ‘mouths’ of the La Palma volcano joining together to make one much bigger cone with two smaller vents, and a bigger lava flow being emitted, as the volcano continues with as much force as it started with 15 days ago.


Six tremors shake Fuencaliente:
According to the IGN, they have seen an increase in the seismic activity in the southern municipality of Fuencaliente in La Palma, coinciding with the resurgence of eruptive activity in the volcano after the collapse of part of one of its cones.

Last night they recorded a succession of earthquakes between 10:30pm and 12.20am, four of them with an intensity greater than 3, and only one, at 11:45pm, with a strength of 2.9 on the Richter scale.

The most intense earthquake occurred at 12.20am this morning measured at 3.7 on the Richter scale which was felt by the public, which was equalled by another tremor in Villa de Mazo also measured at 3.7.

from Canarian Weekly (https://www.canarianweekly.com/posts/la-palma-volcano-update-0410)