Coronavirus with an R0 of 3 or beyond

[Chris]

Not wishing to alarm anyone, but I was just watching the movie "Contagion" about a worldwide SARS-type viral outbreak, that the current coronavirus pandemic seems to be mirroring closely, when I came upon the most important characteristic of any outbreak, the so-called R0 - number, which indicates how contagious a disease is. R1 means one infected person will infect 1 other on average, 2 means 2 will be infected and so on. Anything beyond 3 would indicate an unstoppable global pandemic, though of course the death rate can vary and with coronavirus, it seems relatively benign, compared to say SARS or Ebola. However, the R0 number is a concern and some studies show it goes to 3 or higher. Supporting article from a reputable medical journal below.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.

The pessimistic assessment comes from both researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak — the rate at which cases are rising in and emerging from China — and infectious diseases experts who are parsing the first published studies describing cases to see if public health tools such as isolation and quarantine could as effective in this outbreak as they were in the 2003 SARS epidemic.

And the warnings come as the United States reported over the weekend finding three more cases, the country’s third, fourth, and fifth. Two were diagnosed in California. One is a traveler from Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started, who was diagnosed in Orange County. The other is someone who visited Wuhan who was diagnosed in Los Angeles County. The fifth case was diagnosed in Arizona and is a student at Arizona State University; the person had also traveled to Wuhan.

Confirmed infections within China climbed to nearly 2,750 and the death toll rose to 80.

China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, warned Sunday that the virus seems to be becoming more transmissible and the country — which has taken unprecedentedly draconian steps to control the virus — was entering a “crucial stage.”

China’s actions — which include shutting off flights and trains from some affected cities and effectively putting tens of millions of people into quarantine — may not be enough to stop the virus, experts said.

“Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced Sunday it is donating $10 million to the response to the virus. Half the money will be given to Chinese groups to help them in containment efforts. The other half will be given to the African Center for Disease Control to fund its efforts to help African countries prepare to have to cope with the new infection.

Also on Sunday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted that he is traveling to Beijing to meet with Chinese authorities to offer support and to learn more about the outbreak.

The WHO so far has not declared the outbreak a global health emergency, though Tedros, as he is know, has said the spread of the new virus is a crisis for China and a risk to countries beyond it. The WHO declined to label the outbreak a global health emergency of international concern on the advice of a panel of experts who met Wednesday and Thursday, though those experts were split on whether a PHEIC should be declared.

This outbreak is caused by a virus — currently known as 2019-nCoV — that belongs to the same family as the viruses that caused the SARS outbreak and which cause sporadic flare-ups of cases of MERS on the Arabian Peninsula.

The SARS virus caused an explosive outbreak in late 2002 and early 2003, infecting more than 8,000 people around the globe and killing nearly 800 before it was contained. MERS has never caused a sustain global outbreak, though a number of large hospital-based outbreaks — including one in South Korea sparked by a businessman who contracted the virus in the Middle East — have been recorded.

One of the luckiest breaks the world got with the SARS outbreak was the fact that the virus did not transmit before people developed symptoms.

With some diseases, like influenza and measles, people who are infected but who are not yet feeling sick — people who are still going to work or school, taking public transit, shopping in malls, or going to movies — can pass the viruses to others.

Tools like quarantine and isolation — which were key to controlling SARS — are unlikely stop spread of a virus that can transmit during the period from infection to symptoms, experts say.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.

“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”

To date, at least 14 countries and territories outside of mainland China have reported nearly 60 cases. There have been no reports yet of unchecked spreading from those imported cases to others.

“In hours where I’m feeling optimistic I think about the fact that none of the other countries, including the U.S., have seen significant sustained chains of transmission,” Messonnier said. “But that doesn’t mean that it’s not coming.”

It also appears that the incubation time — the time from infection to the development of symptoms — may be a bit shorter than that of SARS, McGeer said, citing a paper published Friday that described transmission within a family in Hong Kong. With SARS, most people developed symptoms about four or five days after infection, she said.

A short incubation period gives health authorities less time to track down and quarantine people who have been exposed to the virus and who are en route to becoming infectious.

Scientists who have been studying the genetic sequences of viruses from China and a few other of the countries that have recorded cases have calculated what is known as the reproductive rate of this outbreak — the number of people, on average, that each case will infect.

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will peter out. But a number of groups have calculated a reproductive rate for this current outbreak — known by the term R-naught or R0 — in the range of 2 to 3 or beyond.

Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, suggested the estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.

“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,” Bedford said, though he cautioned that it’s impossible to know at this point how severe that type of event would be.

Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus. Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than have already been announced, he suggested.

“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”

[Emil El Zapato]

If you didn't wish to alarm anyone Chris, you failed...

[Dreamtimer]

I recall the SARS scare when my son was a child.

There will be more, possibly worse viral scares as glaciers melt and release microbes unknown to our biology.

Grab your seats and get ready.

And wash your hands while your at it.:blink::belief::shocked:

[Wind]

If it bleeds, we can kill it.

In all seriousness though, I feel that this is one of those scaremongering campaigns again. Don't believe the hype.

Even if the worst happened, what can we really do about it besides than lose our sleep? It's not worth it.

[Chris]

If it bleeds, we can kill it.

In all seriousness though, I feel that this is one of those scaremongering campaigns again. Don't believe the hype.

Even if the worst happened, what can we really do about it besides than lose our sleep? It's not worth it.

Normally I would agree, but that R0 number is scary, as is the response of the Chinese Government. They must know that this is dead serious, if they reacted that way and two countries have already completely sealed their borders with China, nobody goes in and out. The last time such drastic measures were necessary was during the middle ages, when during the black plague, Poland completely sealed its borders with all of it neighbours, as a result escaping the brunt of it.

[Aianawa]

Cheers Chris, will swing with Wind on this one, calm swing

[Chris]

I should also add that I have seen credible reports, that the real number of those infected could already be in the hundreds of thousands. Also, it is too early to establish the death rate with any sort of accuracy, but similar SARS had a death rate of roughly ten percent, whereas the even scarier MERS has a staggering death rate of 34 percent, so one in three people that get it die. That is worse btw, than the death rate of the fictional coronavirus in the movie Contagion, which was put at 25 percent or one in four.

So, we shall see, but whereas I ignored the media hoopla in the beginning, I'm certainly paying attention now...

[Aianawa]

Calmly swings.

To feel into IF, to touch WHY, Once fear

[Dreamtimer]

Your concerns are well-founded, Chris. The numbers are serious. The symptoms factor is a big one.

Here's a humorous take (https://jandeane81.com/showthread.php/12604-Humour-thread?p=842018080&viewfull=1#post842018080).

[Chris]

This Harvard doctor does an excellent job of breaking down what that above 3 R0 number actually means in practice. Not particularly reassuring.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

[Dreamtimer]

Markets are already reacting. They will continue to, I imagine.

Trade wars, disease, ahh the law of unintended consequences. We have no idea what they will be.

[Chris]

Markets are already reacting. They will continue to, I imagine.

Trade wars, disease, ahh the law of unintended consequences. We have no idea what they will be.

The more I look into it, the less I like it. I have dear friends, who live in Beijing and this thing is spreading quickly.

I mean, there is still a chance, however slim, that this whole thing will blow over, but the reaction of the Chinese government and the facts on the ground tell me otherwise. BTW, as of now, four neighbouring countries have sealed their borders with China and the US and UK governments advise against all but non-essential travel to the whole of China, which is a continent-sized country, even larger than the US.

Officially, only a few thousand people have gotten sick, but if that were true, why are they building brand new hospitals with record speed in Wuhan? From local reports, it would seem that Wuhan alone has tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of cases already. Pretty soon there will be millions and it has already spread beyond the borders of China. The silver lining seems to be that the death rate is not too bad so far perhaps 2-3 percent, although it must be said, the Spanish Influenza had roughly the same death rate, but a significantly lower R0 number, at around 1,8, so this outbreak is actually more serious. I have seen projections from serious publications that estimate around 20 percent of the global population will get it if current trends continue. That means around 1,5 billion well get sick and 30-40 million might die, all within the next year or so. I am also concerned about serious reports, not from whackjobs, but reputable sources, that the original source of the outbreak may have been the Wuhan biodefence lab, where they were experimenting with coronavirus strains collected from batcaves in the nearby area. Who knows if we'll ever find out the truth.

[Dreamtimer]

This is a video from the twitter thread linked above.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=Nk5P_iRYwTY&feature=emb_logo

[Wind]

I am also concerned about serious reports, not from whackjobs, but reputable sources, that the original source of the outbreak may have been the Wuhan biodefence lab, where they were experimenting with coronavirus strains collected from batcaves in the nearby area. Who knows if we'll ever find out the truth.

Hearing truth from the government? Never.

The situation is a bit concerning now, I must admit. It's worrisome what governments can potentially do with their biological weapons.

[Chris]

British Airways has now suspended all flights to China, until at least the end of February. We can now say that China is in lockdown and will soon be quarantined by the entire world. Not reassuring.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-china-british-airways-flights-suspended-death-toll-wuhan-a9307246.html

[Wind]

I read that the SARS epidemic lasted only for some months and it was mostly contained in Asia.

[Chris]

I read that the SARS epidemic lasted only for some months and it was mostly contained in Asia.

Yes, this one looks more serious in terms of it spreading, because unlike SARS, it is contagious for up to two weeks, even before the person spreading it shows any symptoms. This is unprecedented and a public health nightmare. The silver lining seems to be a much lower death rate than with its SARS and MERS cousins. They still haven't gotten around giving a name for this novel coronavirus, I guess there are other priorities. Most people who get it, will only experience flu-like symptoms and will recover in a couple of weeks. This strain is likely to stick around permanently, much like the Flu virus and the common cold, it will probably prove impossible to eradicate.

[Chris]

And the plot thickens:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1234777/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-military-bio-warfare-virus-spread

Coronavirus: Wuhan has deadly pathogen lab linked to Chinese scientist under investigation

CHINA'S only secure laboratory for studying deadly diseases is located in Wuhan and was the destination of several trips made by a Chinese scientist who is under investigation by the Canadian government.

The scientist who worked at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg made at least five trips to China between 2017-18, including one to train scientists and technicians at China’s newly certified Level 4 lab, which does research with the most deadly pathogens. Xiangguo Qiu, who was escorted out of the Winnipeg lab in July amid an investigation into what’s being described by Public Health Agency of Canada as a possible “policy breach”, was invited to go to the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences twice a year for two years, for up to two weeks each time. Several of Mrs Qiu’s co-workers say there have always been questions about her trips to China, and what information and technology she was sharing with researchers there.

One employee said: “It’s not right that she’s a Canadian government employee providing details of top-secret work and know-how to set up a high-containment lab for a foreign nation,”
According to documents obtained CBC News during a September 2017 trip she also met with collaborators in Beijing, the documents say, but their names have also been blacked out.

Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng and her students from China were removed on July 5 from Canada’s only Level 4 lab, one equipped to work with the most serious and deadly human and animal diseases, such as Ebola.

Security access for the couple and the Chinese students was revoked.

Meanwhile, there has been no change in Qiu and Cheng’s status at the University of Manitoba, which had severed ties with both of them and reassigned her students in July.
Qiu is a medical doctor and virologist who helped develop ZMapp, a treatment for the deadly Ebola virus, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014-2016 and saw an outbreak in Congo earlier this year.
She is a medical doctor originally from Tianjin in China.
She came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996.

She is still affiliated with the university there and has brought in many students over the years to help with her work.
This news comes amid a Department of Justice announcement that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

Doctor Charles Lieber, 60, Chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard University, was arrested this morning and charged by criminal complaint with one count of making a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement.

Yanqing Ye, 29, a Chinese national, was also charged in an indictment today with one count each of visa fraud, making false statements, acting as an agent of a foreign government and conspiracy.

Ye is currently in China.
Zaosong Zheng, 30, a Chinese national, was arrested on December 10, 2019, at Boston’s Logan International Airport and charged by criminal complaint with attempting to smuggle 21 vials of biological research to China.
On January 21, 2020, Zheng was indicted on one count of smuggling goods from the United States and one count of making false, fictitious or fraudulent statements.

According to an Israeli biological warfare expert who spoke to The Washington Times, the deadly animal-borne coronavirus spreading globally may have originated in a laboratory in the city of Wuhan linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, said an Israeli biological warfare analyst.

Radio Free Asia last week rebroadcast a Wuhan television report from 2015 showing China’s most advanced virus research laboratory, known the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The laboratory is the only declared site in China capable of working with deadly viruses.

Dany Shoham, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who has studied Chinese biological warfare, said the institute is linked to Beijing’s covert bio-weapons program.

[Dreamtimer]

I had to look up MERS. (I was thinking of MRSA)

We can't trust private oligarchs either. They fund a lot of stuff and make large demands of government. Trump wants to make that fully legal. Legal quid pro quo. He wants it bad.

[Chris]

New data has come in regarding the death rate and R0 rate of this coronavirus. Apparently the original R0 rate was 4, which has since declined due to public health measures being taken. On the other hand, the first real numbers on the death rate are in and they are not looking good, at 11 percent they are about the same as with the SARS epidemic, instead of the 2-3 percent that was assumed earlier.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1222592130490814464

[Chris]

Many Russians Think America Created the Wuhan Coronavirus, and the Reasons May Shock You

Several Russian scientists believe America created the Wuhan coronavirus to sabotage China while making boatloads of money off a cure.

Russian scientists and political leaders are claiming that the United States created the Wuhan coronavirus.

They believe the disease is a bioweapon designed to destabilize China while generating huge profits for American pharmaceutical companies.

Russia has closed its land border with China in response to the Wuhan coronavirus threat.

Details:

https://www.ccn.com/many-russians-think-america-created-the-wuhan-coronavirus/

[Aianawa]

Many Russians Think America Created the Wuhan Coronavirus, and the Reasons May Shock You

Several Russian scientists believe America created the Wuhan coronavirus to sabotage China while making boatloads of money off a cure.

Russian scientists and political leaders are claiming that the United States created the Wuhan coronavirus.

They believe the disease is a bioweapon designed to destabilize China while generating huge profits for American pharmaceutical companies.

Russia has closed its land border with China in response to the Wuhan coronavirus threat.

Details:

https://www.ccn.com/many-russians-think-america-created-the-wuhan-coronavirus/

Yip this sounds more truthfullll

[Chris]

A highly concerning report from the Epoch Times, the largest Mandarin-language newspaper in the US, which has been leaking inside info from the CCP's inner workings and the latest Party Conference, where the true scale of the trouble China is in has been discussed as well as plans to mitigate against the worst-case scenario. If this report is accurate and given the source, it probably is, even the CCP is now expecting millions of casualties from the Coronavirus and with the exception of 11 major cities, the entire country will be shut down and quarantined to stop the spread of the virus. This is unprecedented stuff outside of major historical epidemics, like the black plague.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/faced-with-existential-threat-to-their-rule-chinese-leaders-decide-to-save-11-cities-from-coronavirus-epidemic-insider_3220421.html

Faced With Existential Threat to Their Rule, Chinese Leaders Decide to Save 11 Cities From Coronavirus Epidemic: Insider

Top Chinese leaders at a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo meeting last week expressed concern that the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak may put an end to their rule. They have decided to focus on preserving 11 major cities from being devastated by the virus.

Stephen Shiu Yeuk-yuen, a senior political commentator and media professional in Hong Kong, told the Hong Kong edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 28 that he obtained the information from an insider in the CCP’s top leadership. According to Shiu, the Politburo emergency meeting was held on Jan. 25, on the day of the Chinese New Year.

The 11 cities on the CCP’s priority list of being saved are Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Shenyang, Harbin, and Urumqi. The CCP is prepared to protect these 11 cities at all cost, even if it means sacrificing other cities, Shiu said.

Projected Death Toll Estimate: Between 1 and 2 Million

Shiu said that according to a recent research report by Professor Gabriel Matthew Leung, before the lockdown of Wuhan—where the deadly and highly contagious coronavirus originated—there were about 25,000 people infected with the coronavirus, and 15,000 additional cases during the virus incubation period. This means, the total number of infected people is roughly 40,000. Based on the spreading pattern, it is estimated that the current number of infected people around the globe is between 25,000 and 38,000.

Prof. Leung is Dean of the University of Hong Kong’s Medical School. He is also a recognized medical doctor and public health authority.

Leung’s report points out that without strong intervention measures in place, the number of infected people will double every 6.2 days, if the calculation is based on an even more conservative figure of 22,000 infected cases globally at present.

Leung estimates that in Wuhan, the number of newly infected patients will reach the maximum—about 200,000 per day—in April. In several other cities, including Chongqing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the number will peak in May. In the months that follow, the total number of infected people across the country will reach 18 million, with the total number of deaths ranging between 1 and 2 million.

Information Blockade and Cover-up
Shiu criticized the CCP for its cover-up and delay in taking measures to contain the virus, saying the main reason for this catastrophe is the blocking of information.

As a result, those who were infected with the disease were not quarantined in a timely manner.

Chinese authorities initially denied that the disease could be spread via human-to-human transmission.

In addition, for several days, Chinese medical authorities reported very few new cases in Wuhan and no new cases in other Chinese cities, giving the public a false impression that the novel coronavirus was not a threat to public health.

Then on Jan. 20, a leading scientist of China’s Health Commission, Zhong Nanshan, announced at a press conference in Beijing that the disease can spread from human to human.

Wuhan’s mayor subsequently announced a city-wide lockdown on Jan. 23, and quarantined the city on the same day. But millions of people had already left Wuhan for the holiday before Jan. 20, and nearly 300,000 Wuhan residents rushed to escape from the city before the lockdown was executed.

In addition, even after the city-wide lockdown of Wuhan, the central authorities failed to dispatch needed manpower and medical supplies, resulting in things such as corpses lying about on a hospital floor and citizens not being informed about virus prevention, all of which would further spread the virus.

The 11 Cities
According to Shiu’s insider contact, central authorities at the Jan. 25 Politburo meeting pointed out that the novel coronavirus outbreak poses a serious challenge to the legitimacy of the CCP’s rule. In other words, the CCP is facing a serious crisis and the threat of its total demise.

Shiu said he believes the epidemic, which is now getting out of control, will have “a deadly impact” on China’s economy. In his estimation, more than half of Chinese business activities will come to a halt. Hong Kong will also be affected, he said.

Therefore, the top officials at the political meeting decided to go all out to save the 11 cities from the coronavirus outbreak.

The insider did not give specific reasons as to why the authorities chose those 11 cities, but they are the commercial and military hubs in the country. It is well-known among mainland Chinese that the most developed metros and financial hubs are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong; and the military technology centers are Xi’an, Shenyang and Harbin.

Shiu predicted that Shenzhen, a city of about 20 million people that borders Hong Kong, will soon be completely isolated from other Chinese regions.

“There are many high-tech companies in Shenzhen,” he explained. “As for Hong Kong, the city’s government seems to be hesitating. I believe it is because they are waiting for the final instruction from the central government [Beijing],” he said.

Meanwhile, more than 15,000 hospital authority employees in Hong Kong have joined a new union, urging the Hong Kong government to close the border with mainland China. According to the representative of the union, if they do not receive any response from local officials by Feb. 3, members of the union will launch a large-scale strike.

[Chris]

If you really (really-really) want to understand how the Wuhan Coronavirus (as well as SARS and probably the Spanish Flu, possibly even the black plague) came about, you've got to understand Chinese culture and some of the idiosyncracies and controversial practices within it. The below two videos really resonate with me, as I understand Chinese culture and people better than most. I lived in Singapore for a couple of years, which has a predominantly ethnic Chinese population, had many friends from China or people who lived there and told me about it and I even used to date a girl, who was from all places, Wuhan. These videos are very un-PC and would probably outrage Chinese people, but the topics discussed cannot be swept under the carpet any more and we've got to talk about them. The problems within Chinese culture that regularly lead to these pandemics where animal viruses jump unto human hosts and then spread all over the world include:

- Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and various superstitions associated with it
- Lack of Hygiene
- Lack of awareness of germ theory and how viruses spread disease in traditional Chinese culture
- The issue of face, which is a problem all over Asia and leads to a lack of honest discussion and sweeping problems under the carpet
- The issue of people eating animals they should not be eating, particularly wild and endangered ones
- The lack of Quality Control in the entire food system
- The existence of wet markets, with a complete lack of hygiene and people's attachment to them
- Spitting.

These are just some of the issues discussed, but they are all very important and unless Chinese society gets a hold of itself, these pandemics will keep popping up out of China and infecting the whole world, so we can no longer sweep them under the carpet.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE7Iz7HLpYg"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE7Iz7HLpYg

[Chris]

And this is how it's done in Singapore, showing what can be achieved with proper planning and an educated and well-informed populace. Interestingly, the article below also brings up the issue of public spitting, which I suspect is the main reason the virus has spread so quickly in mainland China. It is indeed very hard to change these habits overnight, but change them we must. As mentioned in the the first video above, Europeans only stopped spitting on the streets with the onset of the Spanish Flu in 1918 and the public hygiene information campaigns that accompanied it. China must really learn from this experience.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3048267/china-coronavirus-singapores-seven-habits-good-hygiene

[Emil El Zapato]

The Black Plague has anthropological origins in the Yamnaya...it's the way they took over the world.

[Emil El Zapato]

The Han though comprising over a billion people are genetically homogeneous which makes one wonder how that might translate to a human pandemic?

[Chris]

The below article should be treated with caution. It is highly alarmist and sensationalist, with a lot of unverified reports and speculation. Nevertheless, it is a good summary of what might be going on in China right now, with a lot of highly disturbing videos about the unrest and chaos, people fighting over food, hospital lines that are miles long, infected people's homes being sealed, dead bodies on the street, street blockades, quarantine measures, etc...

None of the videos are verified (e.g. were they really taken in the affected areas recently? Nobody knows) and some of the theories and articles linked have been discredited. But, if you want to scare yourself to death, go ahead and click the link:

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/proof-the-novel-coronavirus-infecting-the-world-is-a-military-bio-weapon-developed-by-china-s-army

[Chris]

This study published on the epoch times seems to confirm some of the more wild theories and speculations about the origins and effects of the Novel Coronavirus. Even though the supporting Indian research paper has since been withdrawn, we can safely assume this was due to pressure from the Chinese Government, who have every incentive to keep this information secret, especially from their own restive populations.

Conclusion:

There are many scientific questions regarding this novel virus. Based on recently published scientific papers, this new coronavirus has unprecedented virologic features that suggest genetic engineering may have been involved in its creation. The virus presents with severe clinical features, thus it poses a huge threat to humans. It is imperative for scientists, physicians, and people all over the world, including governments and public health authorities, to make every effort to investigate this mysterious and suspicious virus in order to elucidate its origin and to protect the ultimate future of the human race.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/scientific-puzzles-surrounding-the-wuhan-novel-coronavirus_3225405.html

[Dreamtimer]

Thanks for the vids. It's good to hear from someone who has lived in China and with Chinese people.

[Chris]

Speculation from Taiwan News that the real (unofficial) death toll has already passed 25.000, days ago. This is consistent with the reports we are getting about people dropping like flies and crematoria unable to cope with the amount of infected corpses. Keep in mind, only a small minority of the sick and dying are officially classified as having contracted the coronavirus, for most, a different reason, such as pneumonia or seasonal flu will be listed on their death certificates.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

[Chris]

Not much happening on the Coronavirus front. No news may be good news, then again it could be the calm before the storm.

Here's where we stand at the moment:

- Hong Kong completely sealed its border with China despite displeasure by the CCP leadership, showing how serious they think the situation is

- About the only land border still open to Chinese fleeing the outbreak is with Vietnam and Laos. Chinese are queuing up by their thousands hoping to leave the country before the border is permanently shut. Expect the Virus to spread in the direction of South East Asia in the coming weeks. Thailand and Singapore already have dozens of cases and human-to-human transmission is also happening.

- Taiwan has closed its borders to visitors from Hong Kong and Macau, clearly worried that those cities are also widely infected now.

- The Quarantine has now been extended to coastal cities south of Shanghai, covering 110 million people overall.

- People in Hong Kong are now dropping dead on the street, without warning, just like in mainland China. The sudden onset of deaths and serious symptoms indicates an engineered bioweapon and not a naturally occurring virus

- Multiple Independent sources and experts have verified that this is indeed a virus that has been genetically engineered in a lab. There is some speculation that the original specimen was stolen from a Canadian bioweapons lab and further enhanced in Wuhan, China's only level 4 biodefense facility, which is equipped to work with this dangerous pathogen.

- The genetic sequencing shows signs of tampering, some sequences seem to have been spliced from the HIV virus, others from seasonal influenza, whereas the bulk of the virus, about 79 percent is identical to SARS

- With new info coming out about the actual death rate, rather than what is reported, this seems to be similar to SARS, at about 11 percent

- The transmission rate is around 83 percent, so five in six people who are exposed to it, get it

- as with SARS, Asian males are more susceptible to the virus than others, so far all Caucasians who got it recovered with relatively mild symptoms. Genetic differences ensure that asian males are around five times more likely to get the virus and to suffer complications and death than other populations.

- as is the protocol with bioweapons development, a vaccine and even a treatment is probably already available to the Chinese government, but they chose not to reveal it for whatever reason, most likely to cover themselves in the eye of their own population

- A global pandemic is now a certainty, but the bulk of it should be concentrated in the East Asia region, for genetic and geographical reasons

- The rest of the world could well get lucky and escape the brunt of it, however global supply chains, tourism, travel, etc are already being disrupted. It is likely that world trade and travel, manufacturing and tourism will grind to a halt for several months. I can personally confirm that it is already impossible to get needed parts from China and manufacturers who rely on Chinese suppliers to any extent have to shut down their plants whilst the crisis passes. Hyundai in South Korea has already ceased production in all of its South Korean factories for this reason.

- A global recession lasting several months is inevitable and may have already started. All Chinese factories shut down for Lunar New Year and 80 percent have not reopened yet. This will cause cascading failures in the global supply chain and probably quite a few bankruptcies. Most suppliers rely on just-in-time deliveries and missing deadlines can result in huge penalties, which can put a whole army of companies out of business.

Those are just some of the more salient points, will update as more info comes in.

[Chris]

Just a link to easily find The Epoch Times' coronavirus reporting, which is by far the best and most accurate among all mainstream news sources. This is because they aren't beholden to the CCP and have plenty of inside sources on the ground as well as inside the Chinese Government. It helps that they speak Mandarin...

https://www.theepochtimes.com/c-coronavirus-outbreak

[Chris]

This was originally posted on Project Camelot back in 2010, but I think it is important to mention it here, given the latest developments around the Wuhan coronavirus:

http://projectcamelotproductions.com/interviews/anglo-saxon-mission/anglo-saxon-mission.html


Thereafter, or concurrent, biological weapons would be used against the Chinese population. This would then set of another chain of events that would collapse the whole Chinese political and social infrastructure. This was mentioned as: Disease, followed by wide spread food shortages, followed by mass starvation. Somehow, this would then cause the Chinese military to attack eastern Russia. The biological agents were described as being flu like and would spread like wild fire. It shocks and sickens me to describe these events. It shocks me even more to know that plausible events are being manipulated to cause the extinction of a whole part of the human race.

The evidence was clear. There does indeed exist a Timeline for future conflict that this country, the UK, was using this as some sort of world government business plan and many millions would die as a result. The plan is openly described in these circles as the Anglo Saxon Mission.


Biological weapons will be deployed against China. ‘China will catch a cold’.

[Emil El Zapato]

Well, that is indeed interesting...

[Chris]

Unfortunately, the Anglo-Saxon elite being behind this attack looks like an increasingly likely explanation for what is happening in China and soon in the rest of Asia. The situation in Singapore is already dire and it is thousands of miles from China. In other Asian countries, the disease is probably spreading undetected, which will become obvious in a couple of weeks.

An engineered virus that targets Asian males specifically, released in the middle of China just in time for the New Year mass migration to spread it around hardly seems like a coincidence. I really think that this was a deliberate act of war, indeed Genocide, against the Chinese people, but the consequences will be global. I know it sounds crazy. Yet, that is the most likely explanation given what we know about this virus. I am also disturbed by the noises coming out of the Trump administration, they seemed almost triumphant as the news broke and made statements like this is going to be great for America. How exactly?

As for Britain, I noticed, that BA was the first major airline to cancel all flights to China and the UK was the first country to advise ALL of its citizens to leave China immediately, all 300.000 of them. That is a massive number and these orders were issued well before it became obvious how widespread the disease is and how it is disrupting the country. What do the British know that they're not telling the rest of the world, given Boris's close relationship with Trump?

I have always assumed that a major war with China was inevitable, which I expected would take place in the 2020s. I did not know what form it would take and I fully expected China to fire the first shot. But if this is as serious as I think it is, the "West" may win this war without firing a single shot.

China was always ripe for collapse, due to overpopulation, environmental degradation and the self-destructiveness of any communist system. This, I fear, will tip it over the edge. At least the Communists will be gone, but the loss of life, not to mention the damage to the world economy will be immense.

[Chris]

Leaked data out of China would seem to indicate that the official death toll for confirmed Wuhan Coronavirus cases is now around 50.000 with approximately 1.5 million confirmed cases of infection. It is impossible to verify this info, but it would seem to be far closer to the real number than what is being officially released right now, given the complete lockdown of half a billion people and crematoriums working non-stop in the worst affected areas.

https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-totally-dark-japan-not-doing-enough-contain-outbreak-diamond-princess-passengers

[Aragorn]

Unfortunately, the Anglo-Saxon elite being behind this attack looks like an increasingly likely explanation for what is happening in China and soon in the rest of Asia. The situation in Singapore is already dire and it is thousands of miles from China. In other Asian countries, the disease is probably spreading undetected, which will become obvious in a couple of weeks.

An engineered virus that targets Asian males specifically, released in the middle of China just in time for the New Year mass migration to spread it around hardly seems like a coincidence. I really think that this was a deliberate act of war, indeed Genocide, against the Chinese people, but the consequences will be global. I know it sounds crazy. Yet, that is the most likely explanation given what we know about this virus. I am also disturbed by the noises coming out of the Trump administration, they seemed almost triumphant as the news broke and made statements like this is going to be great for America. How exactly?

As for Britain, I noticed, that BA was the first major airline to cancel all flights to China and the UK was the first country to advise ALL of its citizens to leave China immediately, all 300.000 of them. That is a massive number and these orders were issued well before it became obvious how widespread the disease is and how it is disrupting the country. What do the British know that they're not telling the rest of the world, given Boris's close relationship with Trump?

I have always assumed that a major war with China was inevitable, which I expected would take place in the 2020s. I did not know what form it would take and I fully expected China to fire the first shot. But if this is as serious as I think it is, the "West" may win this war without firing a single shot.

China was always ripe for collapse, due to overpopulation, environmental degradation and the self-destructiveness of any communist system. This, I fear, will tip it over the edge. At least the Communists will be gone, but the loss of life, not to mention the damage to the world economy will be immense.

Chris, it is not an attack, nor a biological weapon. That is a rumor that was launched by Russian propagandists, and it has already been debunked.

[Chris]

Chris, it is not an attack, nor a biological weapon. That is a rumor that was launched by Russian propagandists, and it has already been debunked.

We'll see. An official investigation has been launched by the white house to get to the bottom of it.

I admit that the chances of this being the work of the US are minuscule, yet, knowing the Neocons, I worry.

That this virus was at least manipulated and enhanced in a lab, wherever that may be, seems very likely, given that a number of independent scientific sources have brought up this issue.

Let's just go with the accidental release by the Wuhan BL4 lab theory for now, that is the one that explains most of the facts at hand, especially in terms of the DNA sequencing.

Russians were spreading the rumour that the US was behind the Coronavirus attack, but I agree that this is far-fetched, though certainly isn't impossible. It doesn't seem any crazier than 9/11, using depleted Uranium in Iraq or Blowing up Saddam's Chemical Weapon stores so that it can evaporate and blow back on US troops.

[Chris]

The more I look into it, the less I like it. I have dear friends, who live in Beijing and this thing is spreading quickly.

I mean, there is still a chance, however slim, that this whole thing will blow over, but the reaction of the Chinese government and the facts on the ground tell me otherwise. BTW, as of now, four neighbouring countries have sealed their borders with China and the US and UK governments advise against all but non-essential travel to the whole of China, which is a continent-sized country, even larger than the US.

Officially, only a few thousand people have gotten sick, but if that were true, why are they building brand new hospitals with record speed in Wuhan? From local reports, it would seem that Wuhan alone has tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of cases already. Pretty soon there will be millions and it has already spread beyond the borders of China. The silver lining seems to be that the death rate is not too bad so far perhaps 2-3 percent, although it must be said, the Spanish Influenza had roughly the same death rate, but a significantly lower R0 number, at around 1,8, so this outbreak is actually more serious. I have seen projections from serious publications that estimate around 20 percent of the global population will get it if current trends continue. That means around 1,5 billion well get sick and 30-40 million might die, all within the next year or so. I am also concerned about serious reports, not from whackjobs, but reputable sources, that the original source of the outbreak may have been the Wuhan biodefence lab, where they were experimenting with coronavirus strains collected from batcaves in the nearby area. Who knows if we'll ever find out the truth.

Not to toot my own horn, but I made this post exactly two weeks ago and The New Scientist is now pretty much confirming my estimates and even calling them conservative. Apparently, I'm in the wrong line of work...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233085-could-the-new-coronavirus-really-kill-50-million-people-worldwide/

Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?

If the spread of the new coronavirus isn’t halted, it could infect 60 per cent of the world’s population and kill 1 in 100 of those infected – around 50 million people.

This is what Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, told The Guardian newspaper on 11 February. Is he right? The short answer is that no one knows, because there are many things we still don’t know about the virus.

First, can we stop it spreading globally? So far, there have been over 40,000 cases in China, and 24 other countries have reported around 300 cases. The virus is spreading much more readily than other coronaviruses that have jumped from animals into people.

Halting its spread requires identifying and isolating those who are infected. This could be especially difficult because some people might be infectious even when they have only mild symptoms. And while the average time from people being infected to showing symptoms is around three days, it might sometimes be as long as 24 days – more than the two-week quarantine period currently recommended.

China is taking drastic measures to contain the virus, but it isn’t clear if they are working. There has been a fall in the number of new cases reported per day, but this could be due to hospitals being overwhelmed. It also seems China is now not counting people who test positive for the virus but don’t show symptoms.

There is a good chance that wealthy countries could contain the trickle of cases currently being detected. The worry is that the virus is already spreading widely in countries that lack the resources to detect it.

The head of the World Health Organization has warned that we may only be seeing “the tip of the iceberg”. If so, the chances of preventing a global pandemic are low.

That brings us to the next question: how many people will be infected if the virus goes global? It has been estimated that 24 per cent of the world’s population was infected by the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic, despite older people having pre-existing immunity because they had been exposed to similar viruses.

As far as we know, no one has any pre-existing immunity to the 2019 coronavirus. Each infected person also appears to be infecting two to four others on average, compared with 1.5 for flu. So Leung’s estimate of 60 per cent getting infected appears plausible, but we can’t say for certain.

“You can’t really gauge what’s going on with this,” says David Heymann at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who led the global response to the SARS outbreak in 2003.

The severity of the virus is also key. Early estimates of the death rate from new diseases are typically much higher than the true figure, because only serious cases are detected. For instance, it is now thought the 2009 flu killed 1 in 5000 people, far fewer than first feared.

Initial reports of a 2 per cent death rate from the 2019 coronavirus were based on dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. But this doesn’t take into account the delay between people falling ill and either recovering or dying, or the fact that doctors were testing only people who already had pneumonia – the most serious cases.

Based on estimates of the number of mild cases going uncounted, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London calculates that 1 per cent of those infected are dying – the same percentage used to calculate the 50 million deaths estimate. This could still be an overestimate, as treatments in development could reduce the death rate further.

But Leung’s estimate actually misses another potential cause of deaths due to the coronavirus – people dying because normal healthcare services are disrupted by the outbreak.

“The worry is not just those infected by the coronavirus itself, but all the services that will no longer run,” says Devi Sridhar at the University of Edinburgh, UK. “You will see all kinds of knock-on effects.”

These will be most serious in poor countries whose health systems are already struggling. For instance, children began dying from measles when vaccination stopped during recent Ebola outbreaks in Africa. “UNICEF calls these the uncounted dead,” says Sridhar.

However, even rich countries could struggle. The UK’s pandemic plans are for something of a similar magnitude to 2009 H1N1 flu, for instance, which killed up to 500,000 people globally.

Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia, UK, thinks the coronavirus will end up killing even fewer people than the 2009 flu. “I don’t expect we will have that degree of fatality with this coronavirus, but I might be wrong,” he says. “If it is much worse than H1N1, then it would be horrendously difficult to handle.”

[Chris]

An astonishing report by CNBC, that proves what we have been discussing here for weeks as "conspiracy theory" is now being seriously considered even in the mainstream, not just in China, but also the US. Mainstream media is now openly discussing the possibility that this virus was man made and got out of the Wuhan Bioweapons lab, as well as the admittedly far-fetched theory, that is nevertheless still being discussed in both Russia and China, that the US may have been behind it. Worth a watch.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmwYbarOqsk

[Chris]

Some terrifying charts showing the complete collapse of economic activity in China since Quarantine measures were introduced. There is currently no sign of economic activity resuming any time soon. This is going to affect us all, because we are so reliant on Chinese inputs in the global supply chain. Expect the entire world economy to seize up in the coming weeks as factories run out of parts and shortages become commonplace. This will lead to panic and hoarding, which will only exacerbate the situation. It might be a good idea to buy whatever you will need in the coming months now, before the clueless masses realise how dependent we are on China for pretty much all of the manufactured stuff we take for granted, including pharmaceuticals.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-disintegrating-steel-demand-property-sales-traffic-all-approaching-zero

[Emil El Zapato]

One of my co-workers from (Vietnam) has a sister and a brother-in-law that own a factory in China (The husband is originally from Hong Kong). No one is working as the freeways and other transit types are closed down...Crazy stuff...kind of surreal.

[Chris]

One of my co-workers from (Vietnam) has a sister and a brother-in-law that own a factory in China (The husband is originally from Hong Kong). No one is working as the freeways and other transit types are closed down...Crazy stuff...kind of surreal.

It's actually exactly like the movie, Contagion, over there.

It was watching that movie that prompted me to start this thread, and boy, has it been prescient...

[Wind]

http://youtu.be/nkF4qYdNU9Y

http://youtu.be/DdPVJJbnL8E

[Chris]

CNBC is doing some amazing reporting on the Coronavirus outbreak right now, the below videos are well worth a watch.

The first video is an interview with the head of Health and Human Services. Watch him dodge the question of whether the virus was man-made and escaped from the Wuhan BSL4 lab, or whether he has been in contact with the intelligence services on the issue. His silence says a thousand words and no, he has not denied any of it or even called them "crazy conspiracy theories". I think we can expect an official admission by the US authorities of what really happened in China in a matter of weeks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gd1fuEYD3Q

The second CNBC news clip is a discussion on the true expected economic impact of the Coronavirus, which everybody is sort of ignoring for now, but it should be blindingly obvious. The world economy is about to grind to a screeching halt, possibly for a number of months or even longer, depending on the spread and global impact of the pandemic.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnmUr2dbA6M

The third interview is with Senator Cotton, a member of the National Security committee, reiterating his charge that the virus came from the Wuhan Bioweapons programme and that China has not categorically denied this, therefore they must come clean and provide conclusive proof to the world about the origins of this pandemic. China's various non-traditional attacks (such as hacking) on the US are also mentioned.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibk6DfpHzEk

[Emil El Zapato]

that's pretty horrible. My co-worker pointed out that there are differing stories and it is hard to pin down the truth. He didn't by necessity believe the spikes and lulls in the spread. Nor did he believe the 'lab' conspiracy theory despite it being seriously entertained. He said the same theories were around for SARS. We did discuss the 2% death rate which is relatively benign as far as pandemics are concerned. For example, he cited a 9%-10% for SARS and I mentioned the 99% for Ebola.

But then when a healthy 35-year old succumbs to a disease, well, that doesn't seem benign. My theory fell by the wayside when Americans with regular American names like 'Frasure' :confused: start indicating symptoms...it has crossed a genetic cline. He suggested 'not so fast' because of the unusual characteristic of 'common carriers' infecting others while not symptomatic themselves. He pointed out that people that are infected in Vietnam (one small city with about 13 cases) were recovering without complications. And another anomaly he cited was in the location of his sister's factory which is close to the Vietnam-China border, he said that there wasn't much going on there beyond the shutdown of the transit systems. I suggested that inter-marriage/interbreeding could be a factor in the slow spread (just being me, of course).

[Emil El Zapato]

On another note the rumor is that there will be a vaccination by the end of March?

[Emil El Zapato]

And apparently North Korea accepted help from the Red Cross...whhaat!

[Chris]

Good points NAP.

Lack of reliable information is one of the big problems we have.

The latest data seems to suggest that the R0 is crazy high, over 6 apparently, this thing is just super-contagious. We still don't have any reliable info on the death rate either, but the original 2-3 percent that was estimated seems about right.

Regarding the vaccination, technically, yes, they will have a vaccine made in the lab, but it needs to go through trials to see if it's safe and if it actually works, which is at least another 12-18 months away. So, don't expect one before mid-2021.

However, one promising treatment seems to be using the blood plasma of patients that have recovered, because it contains the antibodies to block the virus. That may very well be the way forward, at least for now.

Personally, I am not that worried about the virus itself, but the disruption to daily life it will cause, not to mention a global recession, panic, xenophobia, hoarding, civil unrest, shortages, etc... Well, that's another matter and I see that as the main effect most people will experience from this. It isn't the end of the world, but a lot of people are going to suffer, I'm afraid.

[Chris]

I am posting the following news report by Taiwan News with the caution that this is unconfirmed, hearsay and goes against what I wrote in the previous post, that antibodies from recovered patients can reportedly help cure the disease. This report claims the exact opposite, so I am only posting it as a placeholder, in case we get additional data that disproves, or God Forbid, confirms it.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier

Instead of creating immunity the virus can reportedly reinfect an individual and hasten fatal heart attack

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — It’s possible to get infected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a second time, according to doctors on the frontline in China’s city of Wuhan, leading to death from heart failure in some cases.

The claim is made by doctors working in the Hubei Province capital that is at the center of the epidemic, which has to date infected 64,201 people and killed 1,487. One of the doctors reached out to a relative living in the United Kingdom, who then informed Taiwan News.

Both the relative and doctors asked to remain anonymous, out of consideration they might face retribution from the Chinese authorities. The doctor, Li Wenliang (李文亮), who first raised warnings about the Wuhan virus, was rebuked by the authorities before succumbing to the devastating disease himself earlier this month.

According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”

The source also said the virus has “outsmarted all of us,” as it can hide symptoms for up to 24 days. This assertion has been made independently elsewhere, with Chinese pulmonologist Zhong Nanshan (鍾南山) saying the average incubation period is three days, but it can take as little as one day and up to 24 days to develop symptoms.

Also, the source said that false negative tests for the virus are fairly common. “It can fool the test kit – there were cases that they found, the CT scan shows both lungs are fully infected but the test came back negative four times. The fifth test came back positive.”

According to the BBC and other media outlets, some laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are virus-free. There is also anecdotal evidence of people having up to six negative results before being diagnosed correctly.

Dr. Li Wenliang first raised concerns about this. His own test results had come back negative multiple times before he was finally diagnosed.

False negative tests raise question marks over how many people have the Wuhan coronavirus, with many believing the Chinese authorities have massively underreported the number of cases and deaths. Meanwhile, the official methodology for diagnosing the virus in China was changed this week, leading to a sudden leap in the number of recorded cases and deaths.

[Wind]

I shall post this here too, in case if you're interested the astrological take on this virus.


http://youtu.be/KfF9ng_QFqw

[Emil El Zapato]

Just the opening I was looking for... :) Once again you have stepped into my web... :)

I spoke with a friend for the 1st time in over 15 years ago a while back. We were talking about the old days and he mentioned an astrological prediction that I made probably about 40 years ago about an element he should be aware of and alert to because if he wasn't it could cause him trouble (Neptune). He said that as it turned out it had been a very accurate prediction. I tried to blow it off as coincidence and he insisted that no, it was true. :)


By the way, the flesh in open markets is 'bat' meat...

[Chris]

https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/

Logistical and Technical Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Posted on January 31, 2020 by harvard2thebighouse

UPDATE 2/14, 3:02am EST: A probable smoking pre-print has been released, by the Natural National Science Foundation of China:

“In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.”

And in a predictable turn, both researchers have since deleted their profiles off of the ResearchGate site completely. Additionally, the trend in reporting from the Chinese government diverged sharply on February 11th, when the paper initially was uploaded onto the site – making it appear as there’s internal infighting within the Party about what their official story will be.

--------------------------------

This report is the product of a collaboration between a retired professional scientist with 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis who helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools, and a former NSA counterterrorism analyst. It considers whether the Wuhan Strain of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is the result of naturally emergent mutations against the possibility that it may be a bio-engineered strain meant for defensive immunotherapy protocols that was released into the public, most likely by accident since China’s rate of occupational accidents is about ten-times higher than America’s, and some twenty-times more than Europe’s – the only other regions with high-level virology labs.

This mistake may have been precipitated by the need to quickly finish research that was being rushed for John Hopkin’s Event 201 which was held this past October and meant to gameplan the containment of a global pandemic. Research may also have been hurried due to deadlines before the impending Chinese New Year – the timing of these events point to increased human error, not a globalist conspiracy. Beijing has had four known accidental leaks of the SARS virus in recent years, so there is absolutely no reason to assume that this strain of coronavirus from Wuhan didn’t accidentally leak out as well. This is unlikely to be a plot twist in one of the novels Tom Clancy wrote after he started mailing it in.

Simply and horribly, this is likely to become another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, as fate again reaps a once unimaginably tragic toll.

Given that this outbreak was said to begin in late December when most bat species in the region are hibernating and the Chinese horseshoe bat’s habitat covers an enormous swath of the region containing scores of cities and hundreds of millions people to begin with, the fact that this Wuhan Strain of coronavirus, denoted as 2019-nCoV, emerged in close proximity to the only BSL-4 virology lab in China, now notoriously located in Wuhan, which in turn was staffed with at least two Chinese scientists – Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge – both virologists who had previously worked at an American lab which already bio-engineered an incredibly virulent strain of bat coronavirus – the accidental release of a bio-engineered virus meant for defensive immunotherapy research from Wuhan’s virology lab cannot be automatically discounted, especially when the Wuhan Strain’s unnatural genomic signals are considered.



– In 2002, Stony Brook first assembled a virus from scratch, building a polio-virus, and providing proof-of-concept for the creation, alteration, and manipulation of viral genomes.

– By 2015, conducting research that was met with an enormous amount of concern, scientists at UNC had successfully created a “chimeric, SARS-like virus” by altering the viral genome of a Chinese bat coronavirus’s spike-protein genes – sequences that code for the spikes that poke out from surface of viruses and allow them to unlock entry into hosts, in this case making the bio-engineered coronavirus incredibly contagious. This research raised eyebrows since it was clearly gain-of-function research – experimentation that seeks to increase a pathogen’s virulence, creating a more effective double-edged sword to counter – a practice banned in America from 2014 until December 2017 when NIH lifted the ban, specifically to allow research on this sort of virus. Looking at UNC’s gain-of-function research on coronavirus spike-proteins, which received its funding just before the ban was implemented and was only allowed to go forward following a special review, a virologist with the Louis Pasteur Institute of Paris warned: “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory.”

– But then oddly, in late January right as the pandemic was blooming, Dr. Ralph Baric claimed in an interview that people should be more concerned with the seasonal flu – despite having personally overseen the controversial engineering of a hyper-virulent strain of batty coronavirus just a few years back. Immediately discounting the burgeoning outbreak of an unknown coronavirus as a non-event seems particularly troubling for someone who’d trained two Chinese scientists on how to make hyper-virulent coronaviruses, especially when it’s hard to imagine that Dr. Baric was unaware his past colleagues were now working at the Wuhan Virology Lab, the epicenter of the outbreak.

– Scientists have expressed concern about China’s ability to safely monitor this BSL-4 lab in Wuhan since it opened in 2017: “an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. ‘Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important.'” This lab is at most 20 miles from the wet market where the virus had been assumed to have jumped from animal to human. However the idea that a Chinese lab could have a viral sample escape is well-documented – as mentioned, one lab in Beijing has had four separate incidents of the SARS virus leaking out accidentally.

– Notably, the first three known cases from early December had no contact with that market, and roughly one-third of the initial exposed cohort had no direct ties to Wusan’s wild meat market, the original presumptive source of the virus.

– Since its discovery, scientists have been unable to fully determine the zoological origins of 2019-nCoV, it was initially thought to have passed through snakes, but now all that’s agreed upon is that it’s mostly bat in origin. This inability to derive an exact zoological source is exactly what would be expected if the virus had been artificially engineered to target humans as UNC already has, this doesn’t prove an artificial nature – but it is consistent with one.

– A full-genome evolutionary analysis of 2019-nCoV published in The Lancet concluded, “recombination is probably not the reason for emergence of this virus” since it seems that the Wuhan Strain isn’t a mosaic of previously known coronaviruses, but instead draws from distant, discrete parts of the coronavirus family tree – not how these viruses naturally evolve. Because even mixing and matching coronavirus genomes from every known mammal, scientists couldn’t find any possible combination that would explain those regions of the Wuhan Strain’s genome. The Lancet muses that a mysterious animal host could still be out there, however since they’ve already searched through every known possibility and been unable to find a match, another obvious explanation is that bio-engineering accounts for the inexplicable regions of the Wuhan Strain’s genome

– Perhaps most notably, a genetic analysis of the spike-protein genes – the exact region that was bio-engineered by the UNC lab in 2015, where Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge previously isolated a batty coronavirus that targets the ACE2 receptor just like this 2019-nCoV strain of the coronavirus does – indicates an artificial and unnatural origins of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein genes when they are compared to the genomes of wild relatives. Instead of appearing similar and homologous to its wild relatives, an important section of the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein region shares the most genetic similarity with a bio-engineered commercially available gene sequence that’s designed to help with immunotherapy research. It is mathematically possible for this to happen in nature – but only in a ten-thousand bats chained to ten-thousand Petri dishes and given until infinity sense.

– Early research found that 2019-nCoV targets the ACE2 receptor, which is found in East Asians at roughly five-times the rate of other global populations, indicating that the Wuhan Strain 2019-nCoV was likely developed as part of a gain-of-function defensive project possibly linked to immunotherapy or vaccinations – never meant to leave the lab, but meant to serve as a Red Team to fight back against, not as an offensive weapon since the virus is likely wired to be much more virulent among Asian populations. Further support for this is the fact that the Wuhan BSL-4 virology lab was already actively looking into the risks posed from bat coronaviruses, and actively researching coronavirus treatments – by definition both of these projects would require live virulent strains of coronavirus.

– The Wuhan Strain of coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, appears to be transmissible even before its host shows any symptoms at all, making temperature-scanning at airports ineffective since hosts appear to be contagious for about a week before any symptoms emerge. This is in stark contrast with SARS, whose hosts weren’t contagious until they were symptomatic, allowing for its relatively quick containment. This chart is not from a peer-reviewed source but was claims to capture the comparative rates of infections between recent outbreaks. A recent pre-print now gives 2019-nCoV a rating of R4, meaning each host passes the virus on to four new victims, a rate significantly higher than any past global viral outbreak.

– Following the aforementioned bat coronavirus bio-engineering research that was critiqued for being too risky in 2015, in the paper from UNC eventually published the next year that describing their successful bio-engineering of a highly-virulent coronavirus derived from bats, researcher #8 is listed as one “Zheng-li Shi” attached to the “Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.”

– Zhengli Shi seems to have returned to Wuhan at some point since 2016, specifically to the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Disease Engineering Technical Research Center, since she then appears in this September 2019 paper on the human behaviors most likely to lead to bat-borne coronavirus exposure in southern China, and in this pending preprint on the current outbreak of 2019-nCoV – just a sample of the dozens of coronavirus-related papers she’s published over a three decade career. And not only does she provide a direct chain of expertise tying the already successful bio-engineering of a virulent bat-based coronavirus at UNC directly to the BSL-4 virology lab in Wuhan, but back in January 2014 she’d received a $665,000 grant from NIH for a study titled The Ecology of Bat Coronaviruses and the Risk of Future Coronavirus Emergence (NIAID R01 AI1 10964) as well as $559,500 more from USAID for a study titled Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT_2China (Project No. AID-OAA-A-14-00102). Beyond this American funding specifically into viral diseases zoonotically transferring from animals to humans which would slipped in just before the ban, over the years she’s also received around $3 million in grants to study these zoonotic viruses from China and other countries, and has served on the editorial board of several virological research magazines. More of her research into the intersection of coronaviruses like the Wuhan Strain and their epidemic potential was funded by the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Threat Reduction Agency, and U.S. Biological Defense Research Directorate of the Naval Medical Research Center.

– And so a scientist who’s been prolifically involved with studying the molecular interaction of coronaviruses and humanity, spending decades and millions of dollars, and having even helped build a hyper-virulent coronavirus from scratch at UNC – just so happens to be working at the only BSL-4 virology lab in China that also just so happens to be at the epicenter of an outbreak involved a coronavirus that’s escaping zoological classification and whose novel spike-protein region shares more in common with a commercial genetic vector than any of its wild relatives, and has other unnatural characteristics that will be discussed below.

– Another Chinese virologist, Xing-Yi Ge, appears as an author on the 2016 UNC paper and is also attached to the lab in Wuhan. Previously in 2013, he’d successfully isolated a SARS-like coronavirus from bats which targets the ACE2 receptor, just like our present virus, the Wuhan Coronavirus 2019-nCoV. And it turns out that the Wuhan Strain’s ACE2 receptor’s genes are quite unique: they’re almost identical to SARS’s spike-protein genes – despite the fact that almost none of the two coronavirus’s genomes are similar anywhere else at all. Beyond that, although the Wuhan Strain’s spike-protein genome differs from SARS in four out of the five most important genomic spots that determine binding to the ACE2 receptor, they surprisingly don’t effect the protein-spike’s shape. And in an even bigger coincidence, these four spots also code for the outside region of the spike that allows entry into cells, and do not effect it either – allowing the Wuhan Strain to still use the ACE2 receptor to unlock cells while possibly gaining additional capabilities. The odds that this concordance was bio-engineered into the virus are several orders of magnitude more likely than for this to randomly have evolved in nature.

– Numerous videos purportedly from inside hospitals in Wuhan depict a crisis that is far greater than the numbers released by China to date. There is widespread but unverified online reporting that Wuhan crematoriums have been running 24/7, which is consistent with a recent peer-reviewed study that claims that as of January 25, Wuhan had over 75,000 infections – when the official number was just 761. Chinese language social media also reflects a sense of panic and desperation that is highly discordant with the numbers being released by the Chinese government. Who, notably, are refusing any direct assistance from the American CDC. (Evidence that China is vastly downplaying this pandemic’s severity: Example 1. Example 2. Example 3. Example 4. Example 5. Example 6.)

– Additionally, although another since-retracted pre-print noted several very short genomic sequences in 2019-nCoV’s spike-protein gene that look far more similar to sequences found in HIV than to other coronaviruses – critics quickly pointed out that the shared homology didn’t reach statistical significance. However a closer look at the data reveals that there were a few small shared genomic segments that, despite being physically separated from each other along each strand of DNA, all worked together to code for the Wuhan Strain’s protein-spike’s crucial receptor binding site. Something that is highly unlikely to have happened by chance. And despite most of its protein-spike being shared with SARS, these substituted segments weren’t shared at all – nor were they found in any other coronavirus.

– Critics have brushed off the Wuhan Strain’s shared homology with HIV as statistically insignificant, however clinical reporting indicates that the Wuhan Strain may be using this shared HIV homology to attack CD4 immune cells just like HIV does, as an unusually high percentage of patients are showing low white blood cell counts, especially the sickest ones. This pathogenicity may well be due to the unique HIV-live genomics of the Wuhan Strain, as one white-paper by LSU’s professor emeritus of Microbiology, Immunology, and Parasitology who’s also a Harvard-educated virologist with a PhD in Microbiology and Molecular Genetics notes: “This is the first description of a possible immunosuppressive domain in coronaviruses or nCoV2019. The three key [mutations] common to the known immunosuppressive domains are also in common with the sequence from [the spike-protein]. While coronaviruses are not known for general immunosuppression of the style shown by HIV-1, this does not rule out immunosuppression at the site of active infection in the lung, which would prolong and potentially worsen infection at that site.”

– And it should be noted that SARS – much ballyhooed as a close relative to the Wuhan Strain – didn’t notable effect white blood cell counts. Additionally, clinical treatment guides published online in late January by established Chinese medical sources note the progressive reduction of white blood cells, as well as the importance of monitoring this decline. And reporting from Thailand indicates that adding a cocktail of two different anti-HIV drugs to the typical flu treatment regime seemed to effectively knock back the Wuhan Strain.

– In a highly concerning turn, scientists have noted that the Wuhan Strain can have a “striking” short term rate of mutation which doesn’t indicate an artificial origin but captures the unique threat posed by this coronavirus regardless of its providence, since a faster mutation rates makes it more likely this virus can dodge testing and neutralize vaccines. Something there is already early evidence for.

– Giving further credence to the idea that the Wuhan Strain was bio-engineered is the existence of a patent application that looks to modulate a coronavirus’ spike-protein genes – the precise region altered by Zhengli Shi at UNC to make a hyper-virulent strain of coronavirus, and whose alteration and adaptation would explain the Wuhan Strain’s unusual behavior as discussed above.

– And curiously, the head of Harvard’s Chemistry Department, Dr. Charles Lieber, was arrested in the midst of this outbreak on charges that he’d been accepting millions of dollars in bribes from the Chinese government. According to his charging documents, Dr. Lieber first went to the Wuhan University of Technology (WUT), in November 2011 to participate in a nanotechnology forum, which was when he was recruited into a bribery scheme that would net him several million dollars to “establish a research lab and conduct research at WUT,” which became known as ” Joint Nano Key Laboratory,” as well as mentor and advocate for graduate students. By 2015, Dr. Lieber appeared to be fairly intimately involved with what seemed to begin as simply a nanotechnology lab, but now had shifted to involve biology as well, since he described visiting the lab multiple times per year “as we try to build up the nano-bio part of the lab.” Whether or not this nano-bio part of the Nano Key Laboratory is related to Wuhan’s BSL-4 virology lab isn’t clear, however if the Wuhan Strain was bio-engineered, technology classified as “nano-bio” would’ve almost certainly played a role.



Given the above facts, either:

– A coronavirus spontaneously mutated and jumped to humans at a wet market or deep in some random bat cave which just so happened to be 20 miles from China’s only BSL-4 virology lab, a virus with an unusually slippery never-before-seen genome that’s evading zoological classification, and whose spike-protein region which allows it to enter host cells appears most like a bio-engineered commercial product, that somehow managed to infect its first three and roughly one-third of its initial victims despite them not being connected to this market, and then be so fined-tuned to humans that it’s gone on to create the single greatest public health crisis in Chinese history with approaching 100 million citizens locked-down or quarantined – also causing Mongolia to close its border with its largest trading partner for the first time in modern history.

– Or, Chinese scientists failed to follow correct sanitation protocols possibly while in a rush during their boisterous holiday season, something that had been anticipated since the opening of the BSL-4 lab and has happened at least four times previously, and accidentally released this bio-engineered Wuhan Strain – likely created by scientists researching immunotherapy regimes against bat coronaviruses, who’ve already demonstrated the ability to perform every step necessary to bio-engineer the Wuhan Strain 2019-nCov – into their population, and now the world. As would be expected, this virus appears to have been bio-engineered at the spike-protein genes which was already done at UNC to make an extraordinarily virulent coronavirus. Chinese efforts to stop the full story about what’s going on are because they want the scales to be even since they’re now facing a severe pandemic and depopulation event. No facts point against this conclusion.

[Emil El Zapato]

That's quite an article...

I have about 1% Mongolian ancestry...yeah, really...

[Chris]

That's quite an article...

I have about 1% Mongolian ancestry...yeah, really...

It seems legit. Apparently some of the scientific studies and conclusions behind it have been published in a mainstream Chinese medical journal. It would seem the CCP wants to release this info eventually and blame it on corrupt local officials or the CIA or some other credible foreign actor. As I have mentioned, the knowledge that this was an engineered virus that escaped from a Wuhan bioweapons lab (horrifyingly, there are several such facilities in Wuhan, with one of them only 150 metres, or about a block away from the famed Wuhan seafood market) is now in the mainstream, openly discussed by CNBC and some US politicians, so it seems futile to try and suppress the truth, or some twisted version of it for much longer.

The key moment for me was the firing of local officials, putting the army in charge and sending Beijing's top bioweapons expert there to coordinate the response. This looks an awful lot like Chernobyl in my estimation and in fact Chinese Netizens have been comparing it to that from the very beginning.

The Mongolian ancestry thing is probably not that relevant, but it does seem from the data that this virus will have a much tougher time spreading in "white" countries. Not sure if that is good news or not, it would seem that amongst its many horrifying qualities, this virus is also racist, but personally I'll take it, the fewer people that die from this, the better for the whole world.

[Dreamtimer]

The horsemen are about.

We have plagues of virus and locust.

Famine will follow the locusts.

The climate is bringing floods and droughts and storms.

The ocean is acidifying.

Wars are happening as they have been.

Just how much death will there be?

[Chris]

The horsemen are about.

We have plagues of virus and locust.

Famine will follow the locusts.

The climate is bringing floods and droughts and storms.

The ocean is acidifying.

Wars are happening as they have been.

Just how much death will there be?

Quite a lot actually.

Good ol' Bill Gates is predicting 10 million deaths Just in Africa and just from the Coronavirus. It's easy to see that there will be far more deaths overall from various causes and all over the world. It is nature's way of saying "fuck you, I'd had enough." That is even the case with man-made disasters, because man is part of nature.

[Wind]

The horsemen are about.

DT, funny you should write about that as I was thinking about this exact topic yesterday and before it too. Yet didn't write here as I didn't want to be sounding "alarmist". However when this virus commotion started, I saw a dream about one of the riders. The good thing is that I see premonitions extremely rarely, but when I do they are accurate. Not saying that my dream this time was one, but the timing was kinda spooky. :hmm:

[Dreamtimer]

Yikes. Going to the dream thread now.

[Chris]

DT, funny you should write about that as I was thinking about this exact topic yesterday and before it too. Yet didn't write here as I didn't want to be sounding "alarmist". However when this virus commotion started, I saw a dream about one of the riders. The good thing is that I see premonitions extremely rarely, but when I do they are accurate. Not saying that my dream this time was one, but the timing was kinda spooky. :hmm:

This should put your mind at ease...

A genuine photo of the convoy taking the first batch of UK coronavirus evacuees from Heathrow to the Quarantine site.

https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/1/590x/1236255_1.webp?r=1580500451345

From wikipedia:

Pale Horse

The fourth Horseman, Death on the Pale Horse.
Engraving by Gustave Doré (1865).

When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.

— Revelation 6:7–8 NASB
The fourth and final Horseman is named Death. Known as "Θάνατος/Thanatos", of all the riders, he is the only one to whom the text itself explicitly gives a name. Unlike the other three, he is not described carrying a weapon or other object, instead he is followed by Hades (the resting place of the dead). However, illustrations commonly depict him carrying a scythe (like the Grim Reaper), sword,[30] or other implement.

The color of Death's horse is written as khlōros (χλωρός) in the original Koine Greek,[31] which can mean either green/greenish-yellow or pale/pallid.[32] The color is often translated as "pale", though "ashen", "pale green", and "yellowish green"[24] are other possible interpretations (the Greek word is the root of "chlorophyll" and "chlorine"). Based on uses of the word in ancient Greek medical literature, several scholars suggest that the color reflects the sickly pallor of a corpse.[3][33] In some modern artistic depictions, the horse is distinctly green.[34][35][36]

The Greek word for plague is θανάτῳ, which is a variation of Θάνατος, indicating a connection between the Fourth Horseman and plague.[37]

The verse beginning "they were given power over a fourth of the earth" is generally taken as referring to Death and Hades,[24][38] although some commentators see it as applying to all four horsemen.[1]

[Emil El Zapato]

Now that i'm focused on it: A quick search of articles provided me this insight.

The purportedly infected patients on the cruise ship quarantined off Japan have been transported to Omaha Nebraska. My biological families' homeland in America. Their medical facility is ranked at 65th in the United States for research efforts and 8th as a facility for primary care. The one redeeming quality of Omaha Nebraska is that it has a 1.2% Asian demographic. I couldn't tell if any of the patients actually hail from that part of the country (that's how we talk in the boondocks) I dunno, you figure it out from here.

On another note, the patients are either not eliciting any symptoms and the one or two that might be are recovering nicely.

[Chris]

A quick update on the Coronavirus situation, without any supporting links this time.

It is easy to get caught up in the hysteria surrounding the Coronavirus outbreak and at times I have also been caught up in it. However, it pays to calm down a bit, take a few days off the Media hoopla and non-stop flow of negative news to look at the bigger picture.

At the moment, it would seem that China's drastic quarantine measures (up to 760 millions people under some form of Quarantine, to varying degrees) are paying off and new infections and deaths within China are tapering off. This may be a false dawn, as factories slowly restart and hundreds of millions of migrant workers from the poorer provinces return to work to the rich coastal cities, but at least we know that traditional quarantine measures can work reasonably well. The real worry is localised community outbreaks in other Asian countries, notably the two Koreas, Japan, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam.

I maintain that this coronavirus seems to be mostly an Asian (East and Southeast) problem, because of the race specificity of both SARS and SARS coronavirus 2, which is the official name of this current strain. At the moment we can only guess why that is. I won't go into it now, though the science behind it, in terms of ACE 2 inhibitors that are 5 times more likely to be present in East Asian populations than Caucasians is pretty well understood and was also a notable feature of the original SARS-virus.

Clearly, the humanitarian and economic impact will be global, which I expect will pass in a few months' time, however not without severe disruption to the world economy. China will probably look a lot less attractive as an investment destination going forward and there will be many bankruptcies. An implosion of the entire financial, commercial and political system of China is not out of the question and may I say, if this Sars CoV-2 outbreak ends up being the death of the Chinese Communist Party, it will end up being a huge silver lining. A free China, organised along the lines of the Republic of China (Taiwan) would be an absolute blessing to the world. It is time that we put all of the failed ideologies of the 20th century behind us (Fascism, Communism, Socialism, National Socialism, etc...) and move on to something better.

SARS CoV-2 is still a huge threat to humanity and Asia in particular, certainly we should not be complacent and we can expect it to become endemic in the Human population. Outbreaks will happen regularly from now on and they will always be disruptive and deadly, but there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to deal with these situations as they come. The true origins of the virus will perhaps never be revealed, but wherever it came from or however it came about, it is here now and we have to accept it as part of the natural world and deal with it on those terms. After all, it is very likely, that our own species came to inhabit this planet and spread over it very much like a virus, through a similar and significantly more sophisticated act of genetic manipulation.

[Chris]

There's a lot of news on the Wuhan Coronavirus front and all of it is bad, I'm afraid. I won't even try to insert the supporting links, these stories are all over the news, but the South China Morning Post is perhaps the best mainstream news source right now.

- Sustained community outbreaks are now occurring all over Asia and probably the US and Europe as well.
- South Korea has just locked down one of its main cities due to a major outbreak that started in a local church.
- Italy is now seeing community outbreaks in the Lombardy region, in several towns near Milan
- Japan has now stopped even pretending that it can or even wants to contain its own outbreak, allowing infected Diamond Princess passengers to disembark and roam free.
- The military and prisons are now affected as well with several outbreaks even outside China
- The reinfection risk with the Wuhan Coronavirus is considerable, people who have recovered can still remain contagious and upon reinfection have a much higher chance of death, often from organ failure, particularly heart attacks
- There are disturbing reports, from mainstream medical journals, that the real death rate is more like 17 percent and the R0 value around 6.6, with this strain of SARS being 20 times more infectious than the original strain and even more deadly. That may be because gain-of-function properties from MERS, HIV and Influenza have been engineered into the virus, which is probably also the reason it escaped containment, despite all the usual precautions associated with BSL-4 labs.
- I need to reiterate this, but this virus is just incredibly contagious and nothing seems to be able to stop it or even slow it down. It is airborne, spreading even through centralised ventilation and AC systems, through sewage pipes, bodily fluids and faeces on the streets, etc... It now appears that stopping the spread of this will prove impossible and it will reach everywhere in a matter of months.
- Some projections show that up to 80 percent of the Human population will get it and with a death rate of 17 percent, over a billion deaths is not out of the question, especially in places like India and Africa.

I know this sounds like fear mongering and only yesterday I was a lot more optimistic, but these are all facts that can easily be verified and appear in mainstream news and scientific sources, so they simply cannot be ignored.

[Chris]

Well, if anyone here is still interested in the Coronavirus situation, my views have gone from pessimistic to apocalyptic.

I no longer think the pandemic can be stopped and it is probably already under way in every continent, though refusal, or in most cases inability to test is keeping the numbers artificially low. The situation in the US is particularly interesting, even though an epidemic is clearly raging in Hawaii, the CDC has withdrawn its CoV testkits as faulty, over a week ago and has yet to issue new ones. Only three states currently have the ability to even test for the virus and even they are simply not doing it. Clearly, there is a coverup of some sort going on.

The situation is already out of control in Korea (both) and Iran as well as increasingly, Italy. I estimate, that the pandemic will reach most places in the world, in a week, perhaps two at most. Evidence is growing that this an engineered bioweapon with no known cure or vaccine, with a death rate of 2-3 percent under ideal circumstances, with those infected being taken to ICU isolation wards and getting intensive care. Absent such intensive care, which becomes the norm in pandemics and when less-developed countries are involved, it is closer to 17 percent. I am convinced that more than a billion people could easily die in this pandemic and it may just keep coming back, year after year, steadily reducing the world population until some sort of immunity is developed or some vaccine / cure is found, which may be years away.

It seems that Quarantine measures are ineffective, absent full-blown hazmat suits and recirculated air. So, the facts are clear, this is it folks, the big event that most of us always knew was coming, the event that will put our current civilisation out of business. I don't know how long any of us we will have electricity or internet, this will probably vary locally (Wuhan has already been shut out of the internet, "to stop the spread of rumours"), but whilst we can still communicate, I want to wish all of you courage, perseverance and resilience in the trials to come. Not all of us are going to make it to the end of the year, but remember, even if you succumb to this disease, there is an afterlife and a heaven that awaits you, losing this body and this life is not the end of the world, there will be a continuation of your existence in a different realm and so death is nothing to fear.

It was an honour and privilege to get to know all of you guys and to be part of this community. The technological means by which we can communicate is likely to go away in a matter of months and we will have to go back to good old-fashioned talking to our neighbours (or not, because they might be contagious, of course), but I will always be with you in spirit and hopefully, we'll meet again in a better world.

I know, that at the present moment this may seem preposterous and incredibly far-fetched, but it will only be a matter of weeks until all of the above becomes generally accepted and inevitable, so just wait a few weeks before you jump to any conclusions. In the meanwhile, I will continue participating in this forum, in the short time we still have and whilst it is still possible.

[Aragorn]

Well, if anyone here is still interested in the Coronavirus situation, my views have gone from pessimistic to apocalyptic.

I no longer think the pandemic can be stopped and it is probably already under way in every continent, though refusal, or in most cases inability to test is keeping the numbers artificially low. The situation in the US is particularly interesting, even though an epidemic is clearly raging in Hawaii, the CDC has withdrawn its CoV testkits as faulty, over a week ago and has yet to issue new ones. Only three states currently have the ability to even test for the virus and even they are simply not doing it. Clearly, there is a coverup of some sort going on.

The situation is already out of control in Korea (both) and Iran as well as increasingly, Italy. I estimate, that the pandemic will reach most places in the world, in a week, perhaps two at most. Evidence is growing that this an engineered bioweapon with no known cure or vaccine, with a death rate of 2-3 percent under ideal circumstances, with those infected being taken to ICU isolation wards and getting intensive care. Absent such intensive care, which becomes the norm in pandemics and when less-developed countries are involved, it is closer to 17 percent. I am convinced that more than a billion people could easily die in this pandemic and it may just keep coming back, year after year, steadily reducing the world population until some sort of immunity is developed or some vaccine / cure is found, which may be years away.

It seems that Quarantine measures are ineffective, absent full-blown hazmat suits and recirculated air. So, the facts are clear, this is it folks, the big event that most of us always knew was coming, the event that will put our current civilisation out of business. I don't know how long any of us we will have electricity or internet, this will probably vary locally (Wuhan has already been shut out of the internet, "to stop the spread of rumours"), but whilst we can still communicate, I want to wish all of you courage, perseverance and resilience in the trials to come. Not all of us are going to make it to the end of the year, but remember, even if you succumb to this disease, there is an afterlife and a heaven that awaits you, losing this body and this life is not the end of the world, there will be a continuation of your existence in a different realm and so death is nothing to fear.

It was an honour and privilege to get to know all of you guys and to be part of this community. The technological means by which we can communicate is likely to go away in a matter of months and we will have to go back to good old-fashioned talking to our neighbours (or not, because they might be contagious, of course), but I will always be with you in spirit and hopefully, we'll meet again in a better world.

I know, that at the present moment this may seem preposterous and incredibly far-fetched, but it will only be a matter of weeks until all of the above becomes generally accepted and inevitable, so just wait a few weeks before you jump to any conclusions. In the meanwhile, I will continue participating in this forum, in the short time we still have and whilst it is still possible.

Geez Chris, you sure know how to scare the shit out of people. :belief: Yes, it's a highly worrisome phenomenon, but so have many other epidemics of late been. SARS, avian flu, swine flu, the norovirus, you name it. If you believed the sensation-horny mainstream media, then all of those diseases were slated to wipe us all from existence. Even the Y2K bug was going to kill us all, because it was going to cause all the nuclear missiles to go off on the 1st of January 2000, remember? And yet none of that happened. So instead of thinking gloom and doom, let's try looking at this from the perspective of hope, shall we?

:unsure:

I'm still not convinced that the Covfefe virus ─ yeah, let's have a laugh about it, dammit! ─ would a bio-weapon, by the way. I think that's just scaremongering and more blame-seeking. If you repeat the lie long enough, then enough people will eventually come to believe it, and then it'll be declared The Truth™ ─ cfr. dixit Joseph Goebbels. And we've all seen that principle at work ad nauseam by now, both in the mainstream and within this so-called alternative community. I'm getting more than a little fed up with all the hypes. :frantic:




P.S.: On a personal note, I'm not afraid of dying. Not that I'd be looking forward toward an afterlife ─ which I do believe exists, but at this point in time, I don't particularly care for one ─ but because even though life has never granted me what I really wanted to have, I know that I have done the best I could for my fellow human beings, and therefore, that my life has had meaning. I have made a difference, because I have been the change I wanted to see. And that gives me at least some satisfaction.

[Wind]

Listen at the astrological report again, this should fade away in a month or so. It's gonna get a little worse for the time being and that's it.

[Emil El Zapato]

Son-of-a-bitch...I just heard a click and pop and my browser crashed (while I was writing a serious response)

I'm not going to do it again, but here is what I think...the active participants on this forum are likely to survive this pandemic.

[Chris]

Geez Chris, you sure know how to scare the shit out of people. :belief: Yes, it's a highly worrisome phenomenon, but so have many other epidemics of late been. SARS, avian flu, swine flu, the norovirus, you name it. If you believed the sensation-horny mainstream media, then all of those diseases were slated to wipe us all from existence. Even the Y2K bug was going to kill us all, because it was going to cause all the nuclear missiles to go off on the 1st of January 2000, remember? And yet none of that happened. So instead of thinking gloom and doom, let's try looking at this from the perspective of hope, shall we?

:unsure:

I'm still not convinced that the Covfefe virus ─ yeah, let's have a laugh about it, dammit! ─ would a bio-weapon, by the way. I think that's just scaremongering and more blame-seeking. If you repeat the lie long enough, then enough people will eventually come to believe it, and then it'll be declared The Truth™ ─ cfr. dixit Joseph Goebbels. And we've all seen that principle at work ad nauseam by now, both in the mainstream and within this so-called alternative community. I'm getting more than a little fed up with all the hypes. :frantic:




P.S.: On a personal note, I'm not afraid of dying. Not that I'd be looking forward toward an afterlife ─ which I do believe exists, but at this point in time, I don't particularly care for one ─ but because even though life has never granted me what I really wanted to have, I know that I have done the best I could for my fellow human beings, and therefore, that my life has had meaning. I have made a difference, because I have been the change I wanted to see. And that gives me at least some satisfaction.

Appreciate the sentiment, but the logical fallacies in your argument are glaring. Do I really have to point them out? You can spot them yourself by re-reading your own post. The very definition of black swan event, like this one (and I've read the book), is that it cannot be predicted and doesn't follow previous patterns of behaviour.

I'm not one for fear-mongering or doom and gloom and like most people, I have been trying to convince myself that it's really not that bad, we've been through it before, it will fade, the epidemic will be brought under control, there's a vaccine, there's a cure and if all else fails, quarantine measures will work, etc...

Well, all of the above is just wishful thinking and unsupported by the facts. The actual facts on the ground paint a far worse picture than what the public generally believes and I have to go by what the facts and the math tells me.

Whether it's a bioweapon or not is beside the point, though perhaps it would explain some of its unusual properties, which appear to be gain-of-function and not naturally occurring, but in any case, they are there and we have to deal with them.

I really, truly wish I was wrong about all of this and in the last few days I was desperately looking for any good news, anything that would disprove my assessment, but I have found none. If anything, there are many unexplained things about this virus that would indicate that things are actually even worse than the picture I painted in my previous post. This is nothing like SARS or the Flu or anything else we had to deal with in living memory. Perhaps the black plague comes closest and I expect, based on the evidence, that this epidemic will have a very similar effect.

[Chris]

Listen at the astrological report again, this should fade away in a month or so. It's gonna get a little worse for the time being and that's it.

Astrology, really?

This is one of those times where perhaps we should put our faith in actual science, though ironically, it may very well have caused the problem in the first place.


Son-of-a-bitch...I just heard a click and pop and my browser crashed (while I was writing a serious response)

I'm not going to do it again, but here is what I think...the active participants on this forum are likely to survive this pandemic.

Hopefully, with divine providence, although a 6 in 7 chance of survival isn't great...

[Dreamtimer]

I'm supposed to be traveling in a couple months. I guess I'll have to see what happens. I got trip insurance, thankfully.

I met with some friends for brunch today and one of them was talking about much of what you said, Chris. It's cause for concern, no doubt.

[Wind]

Astrology, really?

Yes, mate. It's funny you should question it's validity as you've been claiming to be channeling spirits.

[Chris]

Yes, mate. It's funny you should question it's validity as you've been claiming to be channeling spirits.

It's not personal, I just don't think that astrology is the right tool to be predicting and tackling an epidemic. Though perhaps, yes in the grand scheme of things, certain things can be predicted by astrological means.


I'm supposed to be traveling in a couple months. I guess I'll have to see what happens. I got trip insurance, thankfully.

I met with some friends for brunch today and one of them was talking about much of what you said, Chris. It's cause for concern, no doubt.

Actually, I'm concerned that people aren't talking about it. I was just talking to my sister, my brother and the rest of my family today and they didn't even know that there was already an epidemic in Northern Italy, just a few hundred miles from us. They appeared to have no clue what a quarantine means and how to prepare for it. I mean we'll be fine, my sister has a farm and we could probably survive there indefinitely if needed, but the lack of knowledge amongst the general public is worrying.

[Emil El Zapato]

Astrology predictions are only as good as the astrologer...I think Wind's guy is pretty good...just my opinion of course...

[Chris]

Astrology predictions are only as good as the astrologer...I think Wind's guy is pretty good...just my opinion of course...

"Western" (in truth, Indian) Astrology never did it for me, but I must admit that Chinese astrology has been scarily accurate at times, especially in terms of predicting specific personality traits.

I think that Astrology is such an inexact science (if you can call it that) with so much open to interpretation and even intuition, that is just isn't a very useful tool in predicting events such as the spread of en epidemic. It may have some utility in one's personal life or in the general direction of global events, I'll give you that.

As Wind's dig has alluded to, I'm not opposed to using non-traditional means when it comes to predicting, big apocalyptic events, but in this case, I'd rather put my faith in science. And, I must say, I am not discounting the effect of divine providence and we may yet witness a Deus ex machina event, where the gods intercede on our behalf, despite the fact that we richly deserve what's coming to us.

[Aragorn]

Highlighting in red by yours truly.




Well, if anyone here is still interested in the Coronavirus situation, my views have gone from pessimistic to apocalyptic.

I no longer think the pandemic can be stopped and it is probably already under way in every continent, though refusal, or in most cases inability to test is keeping the numbers artificially low. The situation in the US is particularly interesting, even though an epidemic is clearly raging in Hawaii, the CDC has withdrawn its CoV testkits as faulty, over a week ago and has yet to issue new ones. Only three states currently have the ability to even test for the virus and even they are simply not doing it. Clearly, there is a coverup of some sort going on.

The situation is already out of control in Korea (both) and Iran as well as increasingly, Italy. I estimate, that the pandemic will reach most places in the world, in a week, perhaps two at most. Evidence is growing that this an engineered bioweapon with no known cure or vaccine, with a death rate of 2-3 percent under ideal circumstances, with those infected being taken to ICU isolation wards and getting intensive care. Absent such intensive care, which becomes the norm in pandemics and when less-developed countries are involved, it is closer to 17 percent. I am convinced that more than a billion people could easily die in this pandemic and it may just keep coming back, year after year, steadily reducing the world population until some sort of immunity is developed or some vaccine / cure is found, which may be years away.

It seems that Quarantine measures are ineffective, absent full-blown hazmat suits and recirculated air. So, the facts are clear, this is it folks, the big event that most of us always knew was coming, the event that will put our current civilisation out of business. I don't know how long any of us we will have electricity or internet, this will probably vary locally (Wuhan has already been shut out of the internet, "to stop the spread of rumours"), but whilst we can still communicate, I want to wish all of you courage, perseverance and resilience in the trials to come. Not all of us are going to make it to the end of the year, but remember, even if you succumb to this disease, there is an afterlife and a heaven that awaits you, losing this body and this life is not the end of the world, there will be a continuation of your existence in a different realm and so death is nothing to fear.

It was an honour and privilege to get to know all of you guys and to be part of this community. The technological means by which we can communicate is likely to go away in a matter of months and we will have to go back to good old-fashioned talking to our neighbours (or not, because they might be contagious, of course), but I will always be with you in spirit and hopefully, we'll meet again in a better world.

I know, that at the present moment this may seem preposterous and incredibly far-fetched, but it will only be a matter of weeks until all of the above becomes generally accepted and inevitable, so just wait a few weeks before you jump to any conclusions. In the meanwhile, I will continue participating in this forum, in the short time we still have and whilst it is still possible.

Geez Chris, you sure know how to scare the shit out of people. :belief: Yes, it's a highly worrisome phenomenon, but so have many other epidemics of late been. SARS, avian flu, swine flu, the norovirus, you name it. If you believed the sensation-horny mainstream media, then all of those diseases were slated to wipe us all from existence. Even the Y2K bug was going to kill us all, because it was going to cause all the nuclear missiles to go off on the 1st of January 2000, remember? And yet none of that happened. So instead of thinking gloom and doom, let's try looking at this from the perspective of hope, shall we?

:unsure:

I'm still not convinced that the Covfefe virus ─ yeah, let's have a laugh about it, dammit! ─ would a bio-weapon, by the way. I think that's just scaremongering and more blame-seeking. If you repeat the lie long enough, then enough people will eventually come to believe it, and then it'll be declared The Truth™ ─ cfr. dixit Joseph Goebbels. And we've all seen that principle at work ad nauseam by now, both in the mainstream and within this so-called alternative community. I'm getting more than a little fed up with all the hypes. :frantic:

Appreciate the sentiment, but the logical fallacies in your argument are glaring. Do I really have to point them out? You can spot them yourself by re-reading your own post. [...]




Listen at the astrological report again, this should fade away in a month or so. It's gonna get a little worse for the time being and that's it.

Astrology, really?

Sorry Chris, but you are now engaging in master suppression techniques (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_suppression_techniques). You've done that before, and it's dishonest.

[Wind]

If this would be meant to be the apocalypse (which I certainly don't believe it is), then so what? Does it help to worry?

We will die anyways and that's a plain cold fact. We just don't know when and for a reason. I will gladly meet my Maker when the time comes and I don't think that time will come in a long time. I could be wrong though and perhaps I'm biased as I am somewhat tired of this Earthly life so I don't cling to it, but I say that no fear. Remember that your thoughts, feelings and beliefs do create your reality and together all of us create this so called collective reality of ours here on Earth. So what kind of a reality would you really like to have?

I'm saying this because I kinda used to be a Doomer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomer) and I believed many of those scary predictions about the end which is coming soon. They were always wrong, always. Then I just learned to not to care about it anymore.

I must admit though that I still do think that in many ways humanity has exceeded it's capacity to maintain a healthy system and a way of living on Earth. We are living on a borrowed time and we are living in a system which is suffering from a terminal disease. Is it capitalism? I don't know, but greed, ignorance and selfishness are a big part of the global sickness. It's a sickness of spirit. Can the course of humanity still be reversed? Maybe, maybe not. As long as there is life there is hope. I like to believe in the Good while not having any wishful thinking anymore. It's just about how the way you see things.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/10/03/07/1003076fef81100fcc6ebb521722ec8f.png

[Chris]

If this would be meant to be the apocalypse (which I certainly don't believe it is), then so what? Does it help to worry?

We will die anyways and that's a plain cold fact. We just don't know when and for a reason. I will gladly meet my Maker when the time comes and I don't think that time will come in a long time. I could be wrong though and perhaps I'm biased as I am somewhat tired of this Earthly life so I don't cling to it, but I say that no fear. Remember that your thoughts, feelings and beliefs do create your reality and together all of us create this so called collective reality of ours here on Earth. So what kind of a reality would you really like to have?

I'm saying this because I kinda used to be a Doomer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomer) and I believed many of those scary predictions about the end which is coming soon. They were always wrong, always. Then I just learned to not to care about it anymore.

I must admit though that I still do think that in many ways humanity has exceeded it's capacity to maintain a healthy system and a way of living on Earth. We are living on a borrowed time and we are living in a system which is suffering from a terminal disease. Is it capitalism? I don't know, but greed, ignorance and selfishness are a big part of the global sickness. It's a sickness of spirit. Can the course of humanity still be reversed? Maybe, maybe not. As long as there is life there is hope. I like to believe in the Good while not having any wishful thinking anymore. It's just about how the way you see things.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/10/03/07/1003076fef81100fcc6ebb521722ec8f.png

Yes, I agree.

I also had a tendency to be attracted to apocalyptic visions and doom and gloom, though I have largely grown out of it. I guess the CoV pandemic brought those suppressed feelings rushing back in.

Also, apologies for putting you down, I really do respect you and your opinions.


Highlighting in red by yours truly.






Sorry Chris, but you are now engaging in master suppression techniques (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_suppression_techniques). You've done that before, and it's dishonest.

Again, apologies, that wasn't very nice of me. I guess I went into full-blown panic mode. Admittedly, I do have a tendency to become paranoid from time-to-time.

[Dreamtimer]

Is it capitalism? I don't know, but greed, ignorance and selfishness are a big part of the global sickness. It's a sickness of spirit.

I'm in full agreement here. Capitalism worked well here when mixed with traditional values where family and community were central and folks cared about their fellow countrymen. (yeah, it wasn't so ideal).

But now that Americans (and others I imagine) are turning against each other and allowing themselves to be played by their emotions we are falling into the traps of greed/resentment, ignorance/selfishness and all the tribulations that come with it.

I believe in the goodness of people to overcome this, but we've gone a long way in the wrong direction.

[Wind]

It's all right, Chris. I know you mean well.

[Emil El Zapato]

Hi Chris,

I'm not trying to belabor the point, in fact, I stay away from astrology because it is 'scary'.

People that haven't studied it think it is inexact...maybe...intuition is critical...but intuition is critical when any 'judgment' is made, even science has elements of 'intuition' that are critical to good science.

Just a small example: A precise chart will repeat itself only once in 25,000. That's pretty good precision.

[Chris]

Just a small local update.

Coronavirus panic is now gripping my small town in Hungary. Shelves have been stripped bare, there is no hand sanitiser and face masks sold out weeks ago. All my co-workers are worried as the contagion has now reached neighbouring Austria and it is only a matter of time until it gets here officially, though in actuality it probably already is here. Some schools in nearby Vienna have now been Quarantined.

I have stocked up on some essentials and certain foods with a long shelf-life, just in case, though I don't think supply disruptions will last for long, this is probably just some initial panic. If things go really south I will head out to my sister's farm.

I haven't decided yet what I will do in case of a full-blown local outbreak, but it is possible that I will head out and try to help in some small way. I am a moderately skilled hands-on healer, though I don't know if that will really help with a viral infection, but one must try. Not too worried about catching the virus myself, but the supply disruptions and people panicking is certainly worrisome.

What are you guys doing to prepare for the pandemic?

[Wind]

It has spread to Finland too, a few cases confirmed. The media is in total frenzy now, it's really annoying.

If I'm worried about something then it would just be the global economy. It might take a big hit.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMhObf3LHNM

[Emil El Zapato]

The U.S. is heading toward high alert as well...Our President says he has things well in hand.

I'm not doing anything yet...probably won't either unless it hits close to home...plenty of online rumors regarding that.

[Chris]

So, again, I am not providing links any more, since all the info is now out in the open and in the mainstream.

The latest news is that the UK's coronavirus worst case scenario plans have leaked. The government expects an 80 percent infection rate (roughly 50 million infected) and a very optimistic 1 percent death rate, with around half a million succumbing to the disease. The real death rate is of course anywhere between 2-17 percent, depending on the response, the stage of the epidemic and how overwhelmed local health services are. So, I would say 1 million dead in the UK is the best case scenario, but several million more isn't entirely out of the question either.

It has also been confirmed by Chinese State Medical journals, that Sars-Cov-2 virus has a very unusual spike protein, essentially identical to what you can find on the HIV virus, which makes it 1000 times more likely to attach itself to human cells, hence the crazy infectiousness (an R0 of 12 or above according to the latest South Korean data) and the reason the worst-case scenario is now the central one we should prepare for. Good news is, if you are young and healthy as well as a non-smoker, chances are you will survive and most will only experience mild, flu-like symptoms.

Here in Hungary, I am confident that the response from the government and the health system will be non-existent. We probably have the worst healthcare system in Europe, barring such basket cases as Ukraine. Most of the doctors and nurses that still haven't left the country (most have moved to other, richer EU states years ago, if they were any good) are old and often past retirement age, only staying in their jobs, because they know otherwise healthcare services would completely collapse (even more than they already have) and cause many people to suffer.

Based on the state of our healthcare system, the general ineptitude of our government as well as the very high percentage of elderly and those with underlying health problems, I estimate the number of dead in Hungary will exceed one million, out of a population of ten million. You can easily do the same calculations for your country, which should give you an indication of what to expect.

The worldwide calculation has been updated based on the latest data as follow.

World Population: 7,7 Billion
Expected Infection Rate: 80 percent
Expected number of people infected: 6,1 Billion
Expected Death rate, taking into account, that the response and survival rates will be far worse in most countries than China: 3-17 percent
Expected number of deaths overall: 180 million - 1 billion

This is assuming that the pandemic will not reoccur and reinfect people as they develop immunity, but the evidence actually contradicts that, so worse overall death rates over the course of the years and decades are highly likely.

[Chris]

This is an excellent interview with Dr Francis Boyle about the possible origins of the US Biological Weapons Research Programme in the research of the Axis powers during WW2, not least in Nazi Germany, which continued in the US through operation paperclip, but more importantly by the imperial Japanese in Manchuria, through their infamous and famously inhuman experimentation on the Chinese population. Although the Japanese scientists involved were not allowed to move to the US and continue their work, unlike their German counterparts, their research papers and conclusions were shipped over to the US where they were no doubt used by the very same Nazi scientists that have been repatriated through operation paperclip. This is actually a little detail that has completely escaped my attention until I saw this interview and may explain why the current Coronavirus bioweapon was deployed in China first, with a possible second wave or even mutated strain in Iran. Yes, that is all just speculation, but I do see a credible narrative being formed with all the pieces slowly coming together.


https://banned.video/watch?id=5e571291e53f4d001c3ce08f

[Chris]

A somewhat alarmist article from Hal Turner, however the claims made are all legit and the mainstream news / science sources that reported them check out.

read:https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covid-19-what-you-re-not-being-told-by-officials-or-media-this-will-be-survival-of-the-fittest-the-rest-will-die

Since the outbreak of a "novel coronavirus" in Wuhan, China in Mid-December, the disease has spread wildly, killing many who become infected. A LOT has been learned about this illness, but YOU are not being told. Here's what YOU need to know . . . because your LIFE depends on you knowing:
This coronavirus, now named COVID-19, is the worst public health crisis since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. Almost no one alive today has lived through anything like this, and literally MILLIONS worldwide, will NOT LIVE through this.

DISEASE FACTS:
This disease has an eighty-three percent (83%) infection rate. This means that if 100 people are merely EXPOSED to it, 83 will get sick.
Of those who get sick, about half will get so sick, they will need hospital care.
Of those who need a hospital, about half will end up needing INTENSIVE CARE due to fluid build-up in their lungs (Pneumonia).
Of those who need INTENSIVE CARE, and who GET THAT CARE, fifteen percent (15%) will die.
So, using the example above of 100 people exposed, we get 83 who get sick, about half (40) need a hospital, half of those (20), need ICU, and of those, 3 die.

ULTRA CONTAGIOUS
This new disease is an absolute NIGHTMARE in its ability to spread. It's horrifying.
It spreads the way other diseases can, through coughing, sneezing, and the like. So if you are walking down the street, and an infected person a block away sneezes or coughs, the wind can carry that virus right to . . . YOU.
Similarly, if you're in a store shopping, and an infected person coughed or sneezed minutes earlier, and several store aisles away, the heating and air conditioning system can blow that virus all over the store, and as you are minding your business, it blow onto YOU.
This virus can live OUTSIDE A PERSON, in the air or on surfaces, for upwards of NINE DAYS!!!!!
That means the counter at a store cashier, or in a restaurant, or at a bank teller, or at an ATM can be contaminated as well. Worse still, door handles. You're out doing business and pull open the door to a company or store, and you have no way on knowing that an infected person grabbed that same handle a day earlier. Now, his virus is on YOUR hand. When you touch your face, blow your nose, grab a hamburger, hot dog or sandwich and eat it without washing your hands, POW, you're infected.

INFECTING OTHERS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS
A number of people who contract this virus start shedding it to others BEFORE THEY GET SYMPTOMS. So the infected person DOES NOT KNOW he's sick, but begins spreading it to other people!!!
Doctors measure how many people are typically infected by one sick person, and they record that as R0 (pronounced "R naught"). The R naught for this virus is between R4 and R6. So one infected person can be expected to infect between four and six other people! ! ! ! That is a catastrophic level of contagiousness.

Here's where things get absolutely nuts:
THIS disease also "sheds" from infected people via urine and feces. So, when an infected person goes to the bathroom and flushes, the swirling toilet water thrusts a small torrent of tiny mist all over the place and in that mist . . . . is virus! You walk into the bathroom and smell another person's "stink" and POW, you're infected.
As the toilet contents go down into the sewers and head out to the sewer treatment plant, some of the water evaporates and comes out the holes in manhole covers across town. In that water vapor . . . is virus. So people on ONE side of town, can get a blast of virus because another person on the OTHER side of town, took a dump while infected, and flushed, and the virus comes out of the sewer!
In one apartment building in Hong Kong, a sewer vent pipe in a wall had a crack in it. Virus went up that vent pipe, got out a crack, and infected people in apartments several floors away from an infected family! (STORY HERE)
Here is where things get REALLY UGLY . . .

HOSPITAL FACTS:
In the United States, there are only 2.4 hospital beds per 1,000 people. (SOURCE)
So, using the numbers above about the 83% infection rate, if 1,000 people get exposed, 830 will get sick. About half, 400, will need hospital, and half of those, 200, will need ICU. But there are only 2.4 hospital beds per 1,000 people.
Now, you're a smart person. How many people can the 2.4 hospital beds hold? Yep, 2.4.
So when we have 400 people sick with this COVID-19 virus who need hospital, and the 2.4 beds are full, that leaves 398 who CANNOT GET HOSPITAL CARE.
In Wuhan, China, the epicenter of this outbreak, people who needed hospital care, but who could not get it because the hospitals were full, suffered a death rate of 61.5% (Source)
If that just sent shivers up your spine, it should have. This is a terrible reality. And it's here; in America, now.
Because when you apply the fatality rate for those who died in Wuhan because they could not get care, the numbers then look like this per 1,000:
1000 exposed = 830 Infected.
Half need hospital = 400
Half of those need ICU = 200
Only 2.4 beds = 397 WITHOUT CARE
of the 397 who need care but cannot get it because hospitals are full, 61.5% die = 244 DEAD, per 1,000 infected.
This is why a LEAKED Government document in the United Kingdom, shows the UK government making plans for MASS GRAVES!
This is also why China recently bought -- and deployed -- forty (40) portable cremation furnaces for Wuhan. Each furnace can cremate 50 people per day. Times forty furnaces equals 2,000 bodies PER DAY.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
Since the outbreak began, scientists have studied this virus like no other, and what they're finding is that the virus appears to be "bi-phasic." It happens in TWO phases, similar to the way ANTHRAX happens. (STORY)
The first phase causes fever, cough, congestion in the lungs, and myalgia (muscle twitches and pain). Then, it **** seems **** to go away. But it doesn't go away.
People who have been released from hospitals, showing NO TRACE of active virus, suddenly drop dead on the streets from heart failure. That's the SECOND phase of the virus. It attacks the vital organs, kidneys mostly. The person feels achy again, feels tired again, figures it will pass and keeps on about their daily life. But what's actually taking place inside them is the disease is sending them into Sepsis, and they drop dead from Septic Shock and organ failure.

SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST
We are in for a terrible, life altering, situation. Many, many, people are going to get terribly sick and DIE. Almost none of us has ever lived through a real pandemic like this before. It's going to be heart-breaking to see the level of suffering and death.
We will see, firsthand, with our own eyes, nature's primary law: Survival of the fittest.
Not just the physically fittest, but the mentally fittest as well. A lot of people in America are going to die because mentally, they cannot or will not see the facts as they are. They will REFUSE to plan with emergency food and water. They will refuse to wear filter masks. They will refuse to comply with Quarantines. The mentally unfit will likely die-off at larger levels than the physically unfit. Their tombstones should read "Died because he was stupid."
Government is not telling you this because they don't want you to panic. Noble goal, but misplaced.
We're adults. We not only have a right to know the facts, we MUST know in order to make informed decisions about our own safety.
This web site, and the Hal Turner Radio Show, have been publicizing the facts because we trust in the American people to be mature, responsible, and rational. We will continue to do so.

[Dreamtimer]

Trump's great quote to calm Americans was to tell them they probably won't die. And to squelch information coming from the CDC.

So how does this work? When he can't deny it anymore, which group of people will he scapegoat? Who will the haters go after? The mental state of Americans isn't just about denial. Our leader is fanning dangerous flames.

[Aragorn]

Trump's great quote to calm Americans was to tell them they probably won't die. And to squelch information coming from the CDC.

Trump is trying to appease the shareholders. The panic is bad for big businesses and for the stock markets.


So how does this work? When he can't deny it anymore, which group of people will he scapegoat? Who will the haters go after? The mental state of Americans isn't just about denial. Our leader is fanning dangerous flames.

The danger comes from both sides of the equation. Trump is in denial about it because he's a narcissist who serves the oligarchs, and the panic is bad for the oligarchs. On the other hand, the panic has been blown out of proportions by the talking heads on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube.

I've just read an article from our state-sponsored news media that addressed all the scaremongering. Photos are showing up of mass graves, et al, but it turns out those photos are stills from the 2011 movie Contagion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)). Photos of people storming the supermarkets in China to look for food are also being spread, but those photos were actually from a Black-Friday-like event in China from a few years ago.

As the matter of fact, both the number of new infections and the number of deaths in Wuhan are dropping. There are of course still worrisome infections in several other countries, and a risk that they would spread. But it is simmering down, even though the economists and the Wall Street brokers are still in full-on knee-jerk paranoia mode ─ believe it or not, even with the stock markets going negative, there are still people making a profit off of all of it. And that is the game that's being played.

And no, regardless of what's being said in the alternative media, it is not a bio-weapon, and it's most definitely not related to 5G. It would certainly behoove a lot of people to spend a little more time (and attention) in school. ;)

[Chris]

Trump's great quote to calm Americans was to tell them they probably won't die. And to squelch information coming from the CDC.

So how does this work? When he can't deny it anymore, which group of people will he scapegoat? Who will the haters go after? The mental state of Americans isn't just about denial. Our leader is fanning dangerous flames.

His Job is to reassure people and admittedly, he's not very good at it.

In fact Late Night Hosts made light of the fact, that when mr T tells you not to panic, you really should start panicking.

Fact is, most people aren't going to die, but a great many will, especially the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Whether you believe it is a naturally occurring pathogen or man-made, this acts very much like a forest fire, it thins out brush overgrowth and thins the herd.

This is nature's way of doing some spring cleaning and there is really very little anyone can do about it, so we should just keep calm and refrain from panicking. There is no vaccine or any sort of proven cure, so we must rely on our own immune system to fight it.

[Chris]

Trump is trying to appease the shareholders. The panic is bad for big businesses and for the stock markets.



The danger comes from both sides of the equation. Trump is in denial about it because he's a narcissist who serves the oligarchs, and the panic is bad for the oligarchs. On the other hand, the panic has been blown out of proportions by the talking heads on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube.

I've just read an article from our state-sponsored news media that addressed all the scaremongering. Photos are showing up of mass graves, et al, but it turns out those photos are stills from the 2011 movie Contagion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)). Photos of people storming the supermarkets in China to look for food are also being spread, but those photos were actually from a Black-Friday-like event in China from a few years ago.

As the matter of fact, both the number of new infections and the number of deaths in Wuhan are dropping. There are of course still worrisome infections in several other countries, and a risk that they would spread. But it is simmering down, even though the economists and the Wall Street brokers are still in full-on knee-jerk paranoia mode ─ believe it or not, even with the stock markets going negative, there are still people making a profit off of all of it. And that is the game that's being played.

And no, regardless of what's being said in the alternative media, it is not a bio-weapon, and it's most definitely not related to 5G. It would certainly behoove a lot of people to spend a little more time (and attention) in school. ;)

I would not trust the numbers coming out of China, however, it is possible that infections have dropped somewhat, due to extreme quarantine measures.

It remains to be seen what happens once the Quarantine is partially or wholly lifted, the disease may very well stage a vicious comeback as people return to work and to public spaces. Remember, right now, in the most heavily affected areas, people are in total lockdown and cannot leave their homes, public spaces are constantly disinfected and there is zero economic activity, apart from getting the basics to people and burning coronavirus-infected corpses.

I know you don't believe in the bioweapons theory. That's fine by me, it is irrelevant now anyway, because the virus is here and whether those deadly HIV spike proteins got there through random mutation or genetic engineering is beside the point. What is not in doubt though is the unusual infectiousness of this virus and its resilience on exposed surfaces. I really think it is unprecedented and only the black death comes close to the likely global impact.

[Orbs]

I have raised some good questions on the Chris Thomas thread. I don't bash anyone either. There are forces here at work way beyond some "front man."

The "test" is being executed. International companies are suspending travel. K-12 are incubators and are first lines of defense. Factories/suppliers in China are offline to a degree. The markets are signaling deflation.

It is the flu. I don't want to get the flu. That's just me. Nonetheless, the test of preparedness, willingness and systems is going ahead with or without the trumpet, Mary Poppins, the Boogeyman, etc.

If anyone has good data or questions to share I suggest doing so. Global problems require global solutions and the Hegelian Dialectic is in full swing. Unprecedented cooperation is happening as the world has never witnessed. They got us on this one. Ride it out. Be safe. Cooperate. It's just a preview of what's to come.

Please be safe everyone. I have many affairs to attend to and one of them is family. Drill or not, people will make a run for food IMO. Solution? Go to the store and buy a few things including some good beer. Cooperate. Share information in a professional manner.

[Chris]

I have raised some good questions on the Chris Thomas thread. I don't bash anyone either. There are forces here at work way beyond some "front man."

The "test" is being executed. International companies are suspending travel. K-12 are incubators and are first lines of defense. Factories/suppliers in China are offline to a degree. The markets are signaling deflation.

It is the flu. I don't want to get the flu. That's just me. Nonetheless, the test of preparedness, willingness and systems is going ahead with or without the trumpet, Mary Poppins, the Boogeyman, etc.

If anyone has good data or questions to share I suggest doing so. Global problems require global solutions and the Hegelian Dialectic is in full swing. Unprecedented cooperation is happening as the world has never witnessed. They got us on this one. Ride it out. Be safe. Cooperate. It's just a preview of what's to come.

Please be safe everyone. I have many affairs to attend to and one of them is family. Drill or not, people will make a run for food IMO. Solution? Go to the store and buy a few things including some good beer. Cooperate. Share information in a professional manner.

It isn't the flu, Orbs. That claim (Don't worry, it's just the flu!) has been comprehensively debunked. They have actually done the genetic sequencing on it and this is 80 percent identical to SARS, hence the official name of the virus is Sars-CoV-2. The differences are rather interesting genetically and there is a lively debate going on about how they came about. The spike proteins alone make it far more likely to attach itself to ACE-2 inhibitors, hence the crazy high R0 value (now 14 in South Korea).

[Orbs]

Thanks for the data Chris. WE all have the opportunity to share things so we can ALL make better decisions.

We are all missing data. IT seems there are gaps just about everywhere. Aragorn is discovering photos from movies being used? I'm glad you shared that. I posted propaganda pictures/videos were being used but I didn't know the source.

My observation is the trumpet doesn't seem to be playing with a full deck of cards. I'm referring to he acts like he doesn't have all the information someone like Bush Beans had. It's almost like the trumpet is being left in the dark.

Having said that, I am convinced it is a drill. I'm not sure it started that way but they are not going to let a good crisis go to waste.

I was just at the store Chris and the dude running the register was saying "It's not the flu!" So there is theory out there it as you stated and others as well. They don't discuss recovery rates.

I found a good website by John Hopkins. Here is the link: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I think many of you will find it useful. It DOES cover recoveries. I offer a contribution, nothing more. I am going to loose money on this whole thing and I feel we will see "tests" of our willingness. So far, people are not panicked around me and in fact I see Facebook posts of fearless Americans going on Cruises in a few weeks.

Choice.

[Chris]

Jeez, they couldn't pay me enough to get me on a cruise right now. I wouldn't do it for a million dollars.

[Aragorn]

Jeez, they couldn't pay me enough to get me on a cruise right now. I wouldn't do it for a million dollars.

I wouldn't exactly advise that either. ;)

[Orbs]

You guys, it was just yesterday I saw it. Someone posted about going on vacation who else was and many people posted. One person posted they booked a cruise and bought insurance. I don't know what that means other than if you cancel you get all the money back you paid?

It's a reflection of the psychology. You don't see apathy like that at bottoms. No, Facebook posts in a locality don't run the markets but it is insight into psychology. A piece of the puzzle.

Nobody I know of is afraid. One or two of us are convinced we will be inconvenienced but I don't see anyone wearing a mask yet. I talked to a school teacher and there still is no plan that has been announced to the teachers. Grade school teachers.

No discussion. That is not the kind of behavior we see at bottoms. Apathy it what you see at a top.

I expect the markets to bottom before any good news comes out. In fact, the VERY UGLIEST NEWS may cause the bottom and selling becomes indiscriminate. We are not there yet. All rally's are being sold.

Restricted travel, boycotts, closings are so far pretty much voluntary. Sure, you can't fly to China etc. but getting in a cigar tube full of coughing people is not something I need to do or care to do. See? We are all self quarantining ourselves to some degree.

Business will slow. Maybe 30 days from now GLOBAL WARMING, opps, I mean climate change, will warm us up again. DAMN! Where is global warming when you need it!!!

[Chris]

Masks are useless anyway. Only N95 masks provide protection and then only for 4 hours. You would also need goggles, gloves, and disposable clothes that you throw away each time you go out and come back home. For most people, that is simply not feasible. For such an infectious agent, you need BSL-3 protection, which simply isn't going to happen.

The evacuation flight from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which landed in California, had infected people isolated in the back of the plane, separated by a plastic sheet and duct tape. It was woefully inadequate and 13 people got infected on the way back.

Personally, I plan to rely on my bioweapons-grade immune system to eliminate those little buggers. There is simply no practical way of avoiding infection in the long run, everybody will get it eventually.

[Orbs]

The WHO upgraded its global assessment to high risk. They say its not spreading freely through communities.

The Hegelian Dialectic on a grand and global scale where once again the threat is not only invisible but nano. One of the new buzz words. Nano. Quarantine. Self quarantine. Pandemic.

You are smart if you can use them all in one sentence...

[Orbs]

If you live long... it will cross the speices barrier... I thought mutation headlines were coming. I was wrong! OMG.

12:12 am: A dog in Hong Kong tests positive for the coronavirus, WHO confirms

A dog in Hong Kong has tested positive for the coronavirus that’s killed at least 2,859 humans across the world over the last two months, World Health Organization officials said Friday. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead of WHO’s emergencies program, said that the canine tested “weakly positive,” meaning low levels of the virus were found in test results. Hong Kong scientists aren’t sure if the dog is actually infected or if it picked up the virus from a contaminated surface, she said, adding that it is working with local authorities and scientists who tested the animal. —Higgins-Dunn

Folks, I am not going to support this headline. If a dog can get it, a pig can get it, a cow can get it. I'm almost besides myself they would report this. It's now going to be in our food?

[Orbs]

A cute, cuddly, sweet lovable dog has it. For some reason that seems to irk me. Does anyone else think that is terrorism? I had the talk with someone close to me about cows and how it wouldn't surprise me if something came up with beef. This announcement by the WHO is claiming it has crossed the species barrier.

I just don't get it. This whole thing with drills is terrorism. It's wrong. It's so very wrong.

[Orbs]

THEY ARE BUYING MASKS FOR DOGS. I shit you not.

On a more serious note my buddy says kids are not getting sick? It's mainly older people?

[Chris]

THEY ARE BUYING MASKS FOR DOGS. I shit you not.

On a more serious note my buddy says kids are not getting sick? It's mainly older people?

There have been some sick kids, but they are far less likely to get it and the symptoms are far less severe. It has mostly been older people that succumbed to it, but also some people in their thirties, such as the famous Wuhan doctor, who first blew the whistle on the disease.

The dog thing is way overblown, animals may carry the disease, but there is no evidence yet, that they would themselves get sick. However, in Wuhan, there were worrying reports of pets being targeted for destruction as they can carry the disease. Supposedly, the 40 mobile crematoria that have been deployed are there to get rid of all the infected animal corpses. Those animals were probably killed and did not succumb to the disease, but it is hard to say, since the communist government is so secretive.

[Orbs]

Killing dogs? That's part of their food. That's not an insult. My understanding is dog is part of their diet?

[Chris]

Killing dogs? That's part of their food. That's not an insult. My understanding is dog is part of their diet?

Not so much these days. As the Chinese have become more affluent, they started to look at dogs as pets and no longer as a source of food. They actually want to outlaw dog meat now.

[Wind]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3I7oe3MKNF0

[Chris]

It's terrible, I saw dogmeat restaurants in Vietnam, it is also fairly common there, as well as in Korea. Thankfully, dog meat has mostly been outlawed in the rest of Asia. Europeans have eaten dogs in emergencies, to be fair, but to actually snatch people's beloved pets and torture them to death is beyond the pale. I'm going to sound racist here, but there is a special kind of cruelty unique to Chinese culture that you don't really see elsewhere. It is hard to describe, but you see it in things like people not giving a toss if somebody gets run over on the street, or not intervening, when somebody's in distress, drowning, having a heart attack, etc... It just seems to me that Chinese society as a whole does not care about the suffering of others. Maybe it is to do with a very large population and a long, brutal history of suffering (foreign invasions, pestilence, famine, etc...), which creates this indifference. However, It must be noted that other "Chinese" countries, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan or Singapore are very different.

[Emil El Zapato]

But Chris, you made a good point...affluence is/was a major determinant of what is eaten. Vietnam is passing the cultural era when dog meat was a required staple.

On the question of weapon or nature, everyone should take a closer look at the biological steps nature took to give AIDS life. It reminds of the line from 'Jurassic Park'...nature will find a way.

My Vietnamese co-worker said his kids were horrified when they saw dog being eaten..

[jcocks]

We had our first death from covid-19 today-, a 78 year old male who had been on the ship quarantined off the coast of japan. I'm not concerned for my own health if I get the virus, but my wife and my elderly parents/grandparents/mother in law are another matter entirely. My wife is overweight and seems to come down with things pretty bad, and my mother in law is going on 90, as are my grandparents. I'd like to think they'll survive if they get infected, but especially with my grandparents and mother-in-law, I'm not optimistic.

[jcocks]

I;ve been thinking about the virus, and I have to say I disagree with Aragorn. I do think it's a deliberately released bioweapon. But I don't think most of us have anything to fear from it - it seems it's likely designed to affect the sick/frail/elderly the most. In short, they're culling the herd. If my grandparents or mother-in-law catch the disease, their chances of survival would be 50/50 at best. My wife or my parents - 70/30. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going by my gut instinct.

[Chris]

I;ve been thinking about the virus, and I have to say I disagree with Aragorn. I do think it's a deliberately released bioweapon. But I don't think most of us have anything to fear from it - it seems it's likely designed to affect the sick/frail/elderly the most. In short, they're culling the herd. If my grandparents or mother-in-law catch the disease, their chances of survival would be 50/50 at best. My wife or my parents - 70/30. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going by my gut instinct.

Well, we don't really know for sure where the virus came from, but certainly the circumstances of its appearance are suspicious, given that Wuhan has the only BSL4 lab in the country which was in fact conducting research on bat coronaviruses and there have been 4 accidental releases of SARS pathogens previously. I would say, that it is highly likely that the pathogen was released from that lab, probably by accident or through endemic corruption and incompetence. It is rumoured, that infected animals from that lab were previously sold on to the Wuhan seafood market for food, so who knows...

Regarding the bioengineered nature of this virus, the HIV-like spike protein "is unlikely to have been fortuitous" to quote the Indian research paper that first spotted it and if it were inserted artificially as some claim, it would certainly constitute gain-of-function bioweapons work. At this point, it is very hard to say for sure, we can only speculate without further data.

But yes, the big worry is how it will affect the already sick and elderly. I am also worried about mutations, it may yet become far deadlier, as this is an RNA-virus which has a far bigger propensity to mutate.

[Emil El Zapato]

Interesting parallels:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqr5CIe-NAA


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph6_Z6NIx98

Some of this stuff is horrific, it does make one wonder how benign and beneficent nature is..."When the Earth eats, it doesn't give back"

[Emil El Zapato]

On the question of weapon vs nature, in watching the above videos something occurred to me:

If the microbial trading between bats and humans has continued for a long while, it is possible that certain microbial elements of the bat genome might have integrated themselves into the human making it possible for the Coronaviruses to cross species with some mutations...i.e. COVID-19.

[Dreamtimer]

Good TED talk.

[Chris]

I work in the vehicle parts export-import business and I received the following Coronavirus update from one of our main suppliers in China, so I thought I should share it here:

From the news, the Coronavirus is also breaking out now all over the Europe, especially Italy. It seems now Hungary no case found, while you are in Europe, the risk is very high!!

To be honest, the virus is very dangerous, all of you should be careful. If not necessary, don't go outside and gather with your friends or somebody else, just stay at home when free. The top important thing is that you must take the masks always when in office or go outside, like supermarket, coffee bar, cinema, etc, the mask will protect you very well. Often wash your hands, the virus can also infect people through mouth!

A news reported weeks ago here, one guy without taking masks in the bus was infected just because he sat next to a person who was infected with Virus, the total contact time is just 5~10 minutes. The other people who take the same bus while with masks, none was infected. So, we must take masks all time, it can save our life.

Under strictly control, in China, Nanjing and other cities except Wuhan city have no new cases almost 10 days. The virus seems stepping far away from us, we are just afraid that it will soon break out in the other parts of the world. It is a bad news really:-(

From TV, lots of Italians and French don't take masks even in hospital, they gather on the streets like nothing happen, it is really very very dangerous:-(

This Corona Virus is more serious than Flu, it can destroy our lung, make it hard as rock and kill people easy. In Wuhan city here, one family, 4 people are dead within 25 days due to the Virus infection, the youngest is 42 years old, very healthy, no base disease. If one person is infected, the whole family will definitely suffer from this Virus! So, all of us must take more attention to this virus!

If possible, try to keep enough storage of long-preserved food and water at home. If Virus really spread out in the country, the food will be in a hungry shortage, which is extremely hard for the family.

Hope we can defeat this virus soon and hug the spring!

[Chris]

Some good news on the Coronavirus front.

It seems that China's extreme Quarantine measures are working. Remember, that around 780 million people or one-tenth of the world's population was under some sort of lockdown. Some people were welded shut into their apartments and those that attempted to break the Quarantine, jailed. People were taken to Quarantine centres against their will and if they succumbed to the disease, their infected bodies were immediately cremated. These extreme measures are what are apparently necessary to contain such a plague as this one and a milder version of these may be coming to other parts of the world.

The big worry in China now is that they are importing cases from other countries, such as Italy and have to re-quarantine certain cities as a result.

So, now we know that this plague can be effectively fought through good old-fashioned social distancing lockdown measures. Just keep this in mind if the pandemic reaches your neck of the woods and be prepared to isolate yourself and your family for at least four weeks.

We also have fresh data on death rates. With good quality care, it can be pushed as low as 0,4 percent, which is amazing news. However, death rates in Hubei province, where health infrastructure was overwhelmed, reached as high as 4-5 percent officially, which isn't great news for the likes of Africa and India.

So, the battle is not lost yet and let's keep fighting and contributing what we can through common-sense social distancing measures.

As a personal side-note, both my nephew and niece are currently down with some bug. My sister was told that she will have to separate the children, one will have to stay with her father and the other one cannot go to school for up to six weeks, because he has a compromised immune system right now and cannot risk a Coronavirus infection.

[Dreamtimer]

Every sniffle and sneeze is scary now. Welded shut? Jeez, that's nightmarish. I had a sniffle after traveling to the west coast, but it was nothing. Whew!

[Chris]

Every sniffle and sneeze is scary now. Welded shut? Jeez, that's nightmarish. I had a sniffle after traveling to the west coast, but it was nothing. Whew!

Actually sniffles are good news, it means you have the common cold, not the Coronavirus!

Covid-19, the unsexy name for the disease caused by Sars-Cov-II virus, generally starts with a sore throat, occasionally digestive discomfort and moves on to a dry cough and fever, eventually moving down the lung causing pneumonia. It does not cause sniffles, or a runny nose!

[Aragorn]

Source: Science (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries)




China’s aggressive measures have slowed the coronavirus. They may not work in other countries.


https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/article_main_image_-_1280w__no_aspect_/public/ca_0306NID_Bruce_Aylward_Coronavirus_online.jpg

Other countries can take lessons from China’s handling of the COVID-19 epidemic, the World Health Organization’s Bruce Aylward told reporters in Beijing on 24 January.



Chinese hospitals overflowing with COVID-19 patients a few weeks ago now have empty beds. Trials of experimental drugs are having difficulty enrolling enough eligible patients. And the number of new cases reported each day has plummeted the past few weeks.

These are some of the startling observations in a report released on 28 February (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf) from a mission organized by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Chinese government that allowed 13 foreigners to join 12 Chinese scientists on a tour of five cities in China to study the state of the COVID-19 epidemic and the effectiveness of the country’s response. The findings surprised several of the visiting scientists. “I thought there was no way those numbers could be real,” says epidemiologist Tim Eckmanns of the Robert Koch Institute, who was part of the mission.

But the report is unequivocal. “China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic,” it says. “This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real.”

The question now is whether the world can take lessons from China’s apparent success—and whether the massive lockdowns and electronic surveillance measures imposed by an authoritarian government would work in other countries. “When you spend 20, 30 years in this business it’s like, ‘Seriously, you’re going to try and change that with those tactics?’” says Bruce Aylward, a Canadian WHO epidemiologist who led the international team and briefed journalists about its findings in Beijing and Geneva last week. “Hundreds of thousands of people in China did not get COVID-19 because of this aggressive response.”

“This report poses difficult questions for all countries currently considering their response to COVID-19,” says Steven Riley, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London. “The joint mission was highly productive and gave a unique insight into China’s efforts to stem the virus from spread within mainland China and globally,” adds Lawrence Gostin, a global health law scholar at Georgetown University. But Gostin warns against applying the model elsewhere. “I think there are very good reasons for countries to hesitate using these kinds of extreme measures.”

There’s also uncertainty about what the virus, dubbed SARS-CoV-2, will do in China after the country inevitably lifts some of its strictest control measures and restarts its economy. COVID-19 cases may well increase again.

The report comes at a critical time in what many epidemiologists now consider a pandemic. Just this past week, the number of affected countries shot up from 29 to 61. Several countries have discovered that they already have community spread of the virus—as opposed to cases only in travelers from affected areas or people who were in direct contact with them—and the numbers of reported cases are growing exponentially.

The opposite has happened in China. On 10 February, when the advance team of the WHO-China Joint Mission began its work, China reported 2478 new cases. Two weeks later, when the foreign exerts packed their bags, that number had dropped to 409 cases. (Yesterday, China reported only 206 new cases, and the rest of the world combined had almost nine times that number.) The epidemic in China appears to have peaked in late January, according to the report.



Ambitious, agile, and aggressive

The team began in Beijing and then split into two groups that, all told, traveled to Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and the hardest hit city, Wuhan. They visited hospitals, laboratories, companies, wet markets selling live animals, train stations, and local government offices. “Everywhere you went, anyone you spoke to, there was a sense of responsibility and collective action, and there’s war footing to get things done,” Aylward says.

The group also reviewed the massive data set that Chinese scientists have compiled. (The country still accounts for more than 90% of the global total of the 90,000 confirmed cases.) They learned that about 80% of infected people had mild to moderate disease, 13.8% had severe symptoms, and 6.1% had life-threatening episodes of respiratory failure, septic shock, or organ failure. The case fatality rate was highest for people over age 80 (21.9%), and people who had heart disease, diabetes, or hypertension. Fever and dry cough were the most common symptoms. Surprisingly, only 4.8% of infected people had runny noses. Children made up a mere 2.4% of the cases, and almost none was severely ill. For the mild and moderate cases, it took 2 weeks on average to recover.

A critical unknown is how many mild or asymptomatic cases occur. If large numbers of infections are below the radar, that complicates attempts to isolate infectious people and slow spread of the virus. But on the positive side, if the virus causes few, if any, symptoms in many infected people, the current estimated case fatality rate is too high. (The report says that rate varies greatly, from 5.8% in Wuhan, whose health system was overwhelmed, to 0.7% in other regions.)

To get at this question, the report notes that so-called fever clinics in Guangdong province screened approximately 320,000 people for COVID-19 and only found 0.14% of them to be positive. “That was really interesting, because we were hoping and maybe expecting to see a large burden of mild and asymptomatic cases,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That piece of data suggests that’s not happening, which would imply that the case fatality risk might be more or less as we currently have.” But Guangdong province was not a heavily affected area, so it is not clear whether the same holds in Hubei province, which was the hardest hit, Rivers cautions.

Much of the report focuses on understanding how China achieved what many public health experts thought was impossible: containing the spread of a widely circulating respiratory virus. “China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile, and aggressive disease containment effort in history,” the report notes.

The most dramatic—and controversial—measure was the lockdown of Wuhan and nearby cities in Hubei province, which has put at least 50 million people under a mandatory quarantine since 23 January. That has “effectively prevented further exportation of infected individuals to the rest of the country,” the report concludes. In other regions of mainland China, people voluntarily quarantined and were monitored by appointed leaders in neighborhoods.

Chinese authorities also built two dedicated hospitals (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047943/live-wuhan-millions-tune-watch-china-build-coronavirus-hospitals) in Wuhan in just over 1 week. Health care workers from all over China were sent to the outbreak’s center. The government launched an unprecedented effort to trace contacts of confirmed cases. In Wuhan alone, more than 1800 teams of five or more people traced tens of thousands of contacts.

Aggressive “social distancing” measures implemented in the entire country included canceling sporting events and shuttering theaters. Schools extended breaks that began in mid-January for the Lunar New Year. Many businesses closed shop. Anyone who went outdoors had to wear a mask.

Two widely used mobile phone apps, AliPay and WeChat—which in recent years have replaced cash in China—helped enforce the restrictions (http://www.xinhuanet.com/tech/2020-02/19/c_1125596647.htm), because they allow the government to keep track of people’s movements and even stop people with confirmed infections from traveling. “Every person has sort of a traffic light system,” says mission member Gabriel Leung, dean of the Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong. Color codes on mobile phones—in which green, yellow, or red designate a person’s health status—let guards at train stations and other checkpoints know who to let through.

“As a consequence of all of these measures, public life is very reduced,” the report notes. But the measures worked. In the end, infected people rarely spread the virus to anyone but members of their own household, Leung says. Once all the people in an apartment or home were exposed, the virus had nowhere else to go and chains of transmission ended. “That’s how the epidemic truly came under control,” Leung says. In sum, he says, there was a combination of “good old social distancing and quarantining very effectively done because of that on-the-ground machinery at the neighborhood level, facilitated by AI [artificial intelligence] big data.”



Deep commitment to collective action

How feasible these kinds of stringent measures are in other countries is debatable. “China is unique in that it has a political system that can gain public compliance with extreme measures,” Gostin says. “But its use of social control and intrusive surveillance are not a good model for other countries.” The country also has an extraordinary ability to do labor-intensive, large-scale projects quickly, says Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development: “No one else in the world really can do what China just did.”

Nor should they, says lawyer Alexandra Phelan, a China specialist at Georgetown’s Center for Global Health Science and Security. “Whether it works is not the only measure of whether something is a good public health control measure,” Phelan says. “There are plenty of things that would work to stop an outbreak that we would consider abhorrent in a just and free society.”

The report does mention some areas where China needs to improve, including the need “to more clearly communicate key data and developments internationally.” But it is mum on the coercive nature of its control measures and the toll they have exacted. “The one thing that’s completely glossed over is the whole human rights dimension,” says Devi Sridhar, an expert on global public health at the University of Edinburgh. Instead, the report praises the “deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat.”

“To me, as somebody who has spent a lot of time in China, it comes across as incredibly naïve—and if not naïve, then willfully blind to some of the approaches being taken,” Phelan says. Singapore and Hong Kong may be better examples to follow, Konyndyk says: “There has been a similar degree of rigor and discipline but applied in a much less draconian manner.”

The report doesn’t mention other downsides of China’s strategy, says Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, who wonders what impact it had on, say, the treatment of cancer or HIV patients. “I think it’s important when evaluating the impact of these approaches to consider secondary, tertiary consequences,” Nuzzo says.

And even China’s massive efforts may still turn out to have only temporarily slowed the epidemic. “There’s no question they suppressed the outbreak,” says Mike Osterholm, head of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities. “That’s like suppressing a forest fire, but not putting it out. It’ll come roaring right back.” But that, too, may teach the world new lessons, Riley says. “We now have the opportunity to see how China manages a possible resurgence of COVID-19,” he says.

Aylward stresses that China’s successes so far should give other countries confidence that they can get a jump on COVID-19. “We’re getting new reports daily of new outbreaks in new areas, and people have a sense of, ‘Oh, we can’t do anything,’ and people are arguing is it a pandemic or not,” Aylward says. “Well, sorry. There are really practical things you can do to be ready to be able to respond to this, and that’s where the focus will need to be.”


Source: Science (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries)

[Elen]

As I follow the news from Norway, it seems like the Norwegian authorities are following the same procedures of making people self-quarantine in their homes. If they think they have a virus...or the virus, they should stay at home and have food delivered by friends or home-delivery. This seems to be the general philosophy.

We had a doctor who came back from Italy with the virus, he went to work and saw 100 or so patients before being diagnosed and medical professionals spent a day contacting all the patients to have them quarantined + the people they had been with. My goodness.

[Chris]

Now that the epidemic in China is slowing due to aggressive Quarantine measures and similar measures will probably have an effect in South Korea and Italy, my main concern currently is the United States and the complete lack of planning and honesty. There has effectively been no testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the last 3 weeks and many experts estimate there are already thousands of undiagnosed cases. The below article is a really good summary of why the outlook in the US is grim, particularly in comparison with countries that have "socialised" healthcare and paid sick leave. America's hypercapitalist society is likely to become a huge liability in a deadly epidemic.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064847/americas-battle-coronavirus-looks-grim-thanks-working-conditions

[Aragorn]

Now that the epidemic in China is slowing due to aggressive Quarantine measures and similar measures will probably have an effect in South Korea and Italy, my main concern currently is the United States and the complete lack of planning and honesty. There has effectively been no testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the last 3 weeks and many experts estimate there are already thousands of undiagnosed cases. The below article is a really good summary of why the outlook in the US is grim, particularly in comparison with countries that have "socialised" healthcare and paid sick leave. America's hypercapitalist society is likely to become a huge liability in a deadly epidemic.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3064847/americas-battle-coronavirus-looks-grim-thanks-working-conditions

I'm afraid I'm going to have to agree with that. The incompetence and reactionary dishonesty of the Trump administration are not only going to cost the USA very dearly, but it'll also become a serious hazard to people's health and survival in rest of the world. And the USA being the USA, they don't even properly understand what the words "the rest of the world" mean. :rolleyes:

:fpalm:

[Emil El Zapato]

Well, as the U.S. is currently in league with the dark side...there is some hope. There is uncertainty regarding the severity of the virus, i heard and read of some speculation that in the U.S. and most of the world actually, it will be milder in its physical impact. Time will tell, I suppose...Not to encouraging to me for a number of reasons is that my psychologist half-sister in California is pretty rattled. She is very respected the way I understand it (was a candidate for the best doctor/shrink in California...plenty of personal experience, which is another thing that we have in common) :) but if she is upset...i dunno...what to say...

[Chris]

It seems that the government response, strength and trust in institutions as well as the robustness of the Healthcare System are what really matter.

Amazingly Singapore has not had a single death so far, despite having over a hundred cases. That will probably change, but they can probably keep the death rate below 1 percent. On the other hand, look at Iran, just total chaos and incompetence. I have a feeling that the USA's response is going to be more like what you see in Iran, as opposed to Singapore's (and Taiwan's) openness and transparency.

Also, people forced to stay home for months on end, with no pay, is going to be a serious problem. I think this epidemic is going to expose some of the long-simmering underlying issues and they will look very ugly indeed under the light of day.

In my own country, the increasingly decrepit healthcare system, which has been neglected for three decades, is probably just going to collapse under the weight of the epidemic. The UK's NHS is looking better, but it is already close to breaking point, because of a decade of cutbacks and defunding, I wonder, how it's going to perform under such stress.

Also, what I hear from Germany is appalling, the head of their CDC just told reporters that masks are useless, nobody should be wearing gloves and that the virus isn't airborne. I mean, the rank incompetence just boggles the mind. How did these people ever get into their current positions?

[Dreamtimer]

Perhaps they got into their positions in the way that Trump appointees are here. They have no experience or expertise, but they are willing to bootlick. This sort of corruption leads to incompetence followed by failures. The knee-jerk is to just blame the government itself with no analysis of how we got to the state we're in.

Ironically, this virus is causing many more to support universal health care. Trump's bluster cannot overshadow folks families getting ill and possibly dying.

We have also 'starved the beast' here. We will be paying the price in myriad ways. Privatization has never been the magical solution it's made out to be.

[Aragorn]

Ironically, this virus is causing many more to support universal health care.

Cue the "It's engineered by the NWO to get us to vote for the Democrats!" cries. :rolleyes: :p

[Chris]

Cue the "It's engineered by the NWO to get us to vote for the Democrats!" cries. :rolleyes: :p

It's actually interesting to listen to the US far-right on this issue, particularly the Infowars and Natural news crew. On the one hand, they exposed some of the major issues surrounding the epidemic weeks before it broke the mainstream, on the other, some of the language they use is so paranoid, it boggles the mind.

I've noticed many over at PA are also influenced by far-right paranoia. Usually it's about 5G (the modern version of CIA mind-control waves and tinfoil hats) and how it is actually causing or at least enhancing the coronavirus epidemic. I've noticed that even Bill has lost patience with the hopelessly stupid, who think radio waves can be responsible for viral infections.

Of course the narrative over at alt-right headquarters is increasingly about the "Chicoms" and the "NWO" or globalists having engineered this crisis for their own ends, whatever they may be (that one is never entirely clear and changes with the weather and the direction of the wind that day).

It is entertaining when they start talking about the Satanist Paedophile Reptilian Interdimensional Communist Demonrat conspiracy to take American's guns away from them and that Bernistas would start executing people on the street immediately after seizing power in a Bolshevist revolution (how, when they have no guns? But never mind such details). But, it has real-world consequences when alt news outlets so close to the current administration (especially through Roger Stone) literally demonise people on the left (they just refer to them as demons now, with any pretence towards civility long gone) and talk about them in such disparaging and malevolent terms. It really reminds me of the kind of language that was used by the perpetrators of major genocides before they made their move.

[Emil El Zapato]

Of course, projection coupled with propaganda and paranoia is a wonderful tool for self-destruction...We can call them the 3 P's

[Aragorn]

It's actually interesting to listen to the US far-right on this issue, particularly the Infowars and Natural news crew. On the one hand, they exposed some of the major issues surrounding the epidemic weeks before it broke the mainstream, on the other, some of the language they use is so paranoid, it boggles the mind.

I've noticed many over at PA are also influenced by far-right paranoia. Usually it's about 5G (the modern version of CIA mind-control waves and tinfoil hats) and how it is actually causing or at least enhancing the coronavirus epidemic. I've noticed that even Bill has lost patience with the hopelessly stupid, who think radio waves can be responsible for viral infections.

Yes, that is correct. Bill has been vehemently rejecting the lunatic conspiracies about COVID-19 having anything to do with 5G ─ or even that there is no virus and that it's all just the effect of 5G ─ but the lunacy continues raving on.

The fringe conspiracy theorists ─ whom we can virtually all categorize as far-right now ─ don't even listen to Bill anymore, nor to anyone else with common sense. They've already long made up their minds, based upon a deadly mixture of ignorance, prejudice, paranoia and knee-jerking. Things are no different now with this "5G is/causes COVID-19" madness from how it was during the QAnon craze that split the Project Avalon mod room in half and caused somewhat of a member revolt against all objectivity.


Of course the narrative over at alt-right headquarters is increasingly about the "Chicoms" and the "NWO" or globalists having engineered this crisis for their own ends, whatever they may be (that one is never entirely clear and changes with the weather and the direction of the wind that day).

It is entertaining when they start talking about the Satanist Paedophile Reptilian Interdimensional Communist Demonrat conspiracy to take American's guns away from them and that Bernistas would start executing people on the street immediately after seizing power in a Bolshevist revolution (how, when they have no guns? But never mind such details). But, it has real-world consequences when alt news outlets so close to the current administration (especially through Roger Stone) literally demonise people on the left (they just refer to them as demons now, with any pretence towards civility long gone) and talk about them in such disparaging and malevolent terms. It really reminds me of the kind of language that was used by the perpetrators of major genocides before they made their move.

I was talking about racism and fascism with someone at the Manjaro forum a few weeks ago, and he explained that the whole conspiracy theory about reptilian shapeshifters originated from the far-right as a metaphor for the Jews. Take the phrase "Reptilians control the world" and replace the word "reptilians" by "Jews". The reptilian narrative was in fact simply created as a way for the far-right to stigmatize the Jews without actually having to use the name and risk prosecution over racism. Because hating on the Jews is punishable by law, but hating on reptilians is not.

And it's true. Just look at all the vicious conspiracy theories that have been floating about in these last 15 years. From satanic pedophiles and reptilians over Pizzagate to Michelle Obama allegedly being a male transvestite and her husband being a cocaine-addicted homosexual, all of it came from the far-right. Which should come as no surprise, because the far-right ideology centers on intolerance, hatred, strife and competition.

And that then brings us to the main difference between left-wing ideologies and right-wing ideologies. Left-wing ideologies are about collaboration, and this requires brain, whereas right-wing ideologies are about competition, and this requires brawn. Or otherwise put, the left is about acting from intelligence, and the right is about acting from the fight-or-flight reflex.

But now I'm drifting off-topic. It's only tangentially related, because the right-wing ─ and especially the far-right ─ is where these ludicrous conspiracy theories come from. And the irony of it all is that the very existence of such idiotic theories ─ cfr. the Flat Earth meme ─ is what completely stigmatizes honest conspiracy research and even honest UFO research in the eyes of the mainstream. The reactionary far-right conspiracy nuts are soiling the waters for every serious researcher, and by consequence, actual conspirators are able to get away with what they're doing, as opposed to that they would get exposed, arrested, convicted and sent to jail.

If it weren't for the fact that I am an administrator at three alternative community forums and that my technical abilities are needed to keep these forums running smoothly, I would have already turned my back on this entire community quite a while ago, specifically because of the idiots who are muddying the waters and spoiling the actual research for everyone else.

Too many lies, too many egos and too many agendas. As if life wasn't difficult enough already without that nonsense. Homo Sapiens Sapiens is his own worst enemy. :fpalm:

[Chris]

Yes, I share your sentiments.

To be honest, I think there's usually a grain of truth in most conspiracy theories, it's just difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff and intelligence services encourage confusion and batshit craziness to muddy the waters and discredit whatever part of the conspiracy theory might be factual.

The left-right dichotomy is interesting, it goes really deep I think, involving things like which hemisphere of the brain is dominant, sexual promiscuity vs monogamy, patriarchy vs matriarchy, lunar vs solar religious cults and figures, the Left-hand path vs right-hand path in spirituality, etc...

I have also noticed that even ancient deities get drawn into it, with the David Ickes, Corey Goodes and Simon Parkes' of this world insisting that Anu and his children, the Anunnaki were reptilians, when all the evidence points to the contrary.

[Wind]

I'd say that the left is also acting from compassion whereas the right is from selfishness, even though that's a bit of a generalization.

It's true that this virus has already affected us quite a lot.


http://youtu.be/efYgdv1PVmE

[Chris]

The situation in the US is getting ever more interesting.

They've only just started testing in any significant numbers, despite the disease spreading there unchecked for more than six weeks. Unbelievable.

Trump is still playing down the disease, claiming that the new WHO official death rate numbers of 3.4 percent are fake news (they're probably optimistic, if anything), that this is some form of Democrat conspiracy to crash the stock market and scupper his re-election chances and that this flu virus (which it isn't, it is a coronavirus, nothing to do with flu) is just a hoax basically and it is way overblown (when in fact, it has been underplayed by the authorities all this time, except, curiously, in the UK, where they really are taking it very seriously indeed and have come up with realistic projections).

I can't really think of a country where the response has been worse than in the US, it is an unforgivable medical crime that almost no testing was done (or even allowed!) for almost two months, whilst the disease was spreading uncontrollably, especially in the Seattle area and Hawaii. They'll probably find thousands of cases all over the place in the coming weeks, but it will be too late to do anything about it at this point.

[Dreamtimer]

We are talking about the guy who used a sharpie to show that a hurricane was going to hit part of the US which was in fact well out of the way. It caused a bit of panic and folks who tried to tell the truth lost their jobs.

Folks have lost their collective minds. I wouldn't have thought it would happen so easily in the US, but with the direct injection of fundamentalist religion into politics, here we are.

They really do want the End Times.

[Aragorn]

We are talking about the guy who used a sharpie to show that a hurricane was going to hit part of the US which was in fact well out of the way. It caused a bit of panic and folks who tried to tell the truth lost their jobs.

Folks have lost their collective minds. I wouldn't have thought it would happen so easily in the US, but with the direct injection of fundamentalist religion into politics, here we are.

They really do want the End Times.

It's almost like the movie "Idiocracy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy)", except that "Idiocracy" was actually funny. What has been happening in the USA these last four years is not. :fpalm:

[Chris]

Yes, maybe you're right DT, though that sort of an end times mentality was more prevalent in the Bush admin and amongst the neocons, I think.

For all his faults, mr T does not want the world to end and he isn't too keen on war, which is something I really appreciate about him. In terms of actual foreign policy, the previous Republican administration was way worse than the current one. They really had genuine crusader Zeal and deliberately provoked the likes of Russia and China.

What we're currently dealing with in terms of the CDC and their (non-)response to the epidemic is I think more a case of gross incompetence and the shortcomings of US-style bureaucratic mismanagement in general. They really make other countries, even China, look pretty good by comparison.

[Chris]

It's almost like the movie "Idiocracy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy)", except that "Idiocracy" was actually funny. What has been happening in the USA these last four years is not. :fpalm:

Yes, the parallels with president Camacho are uncanny. Wasn't he a porn star, pro-wrestler and reality TV star? He could have played that role just by being himself...

[Wind]

It's almost like the movie "Idiocracy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy)", except that "Idiocracy" was actually funny. What has been happening in the USA these last four years is not. :fpalm:

The worst part might be that there still could more than four more years left of that and it ain't getting better. Only worse.

[Aragorn]

It's almost like the movie "Idiocracy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy)", except that "Idiocracy" was actually funny. What has been happening in the USA these last four years is not. :fpalm:

Yes, the parallels with president Camacho are uncanny. Wasn't he a porn star, pro-wrestler and reality TV star? He could have played that role just by being himself...

All correct, yes. :)

[Chris]

The worst part might be that there still could more than four more years left of that and it ain't getting better. Only worse.

The Coronavirus depression is now baked into the cake and may yet scupper Trump's re-election chances. On the other hand, it is hard to see who could beat him on the Democratic side. The Buythem name is tainted with the whiff of corruption and franky, uncle Joe is senile. As for Bernie, do we really think that a Jewish self-described socialist is going to get into office? Hell will freeze over before he is even given the nomination, let alone the presidency.

[Wind]

Indeed. Trumpster gets the good rep for the booming economy. What if the economy is tanking towards November? The stock markets are already flailing. Did anyone expect Trump to win? Look what happened. Even if somehow magically Biden goes to office, things won't change for the better. I want to believe in Bernie's chances, but I know how indoctrinated Americans are. I didn't joke when I said that he's Americas last hope. The Empire is crumbling.

[Aragorn]

The Coronavirus depression is now baked into the cake and may yet scupper Trump's re-election chances. On the other hand, it is hard to see who could beat him on the Democratic side. The Buythem name is tainted with the whiff of corruption and franky, uncle Joe is senile. As for Bernie, do we really think that a Jewish self-described socialist is going to get into office? Hell will freeze over before he is even given the nomination, let alone the presidency.

Indeed. Trumpster gets the good rep for the booming economy. What if the economy is tanking towards November? The stock markets are already flailing. Did anyone expect Trump to win? Look what happened. Even if somehow magically Biden goes to office, things won't change for the better. I want to believe in Bernie's chances, but I know how indoctrinated Americans are. I didn't joke when I said that he's Americas last hope. The Empire is crumbling.

Bernie won't win. The Democratic super delegates have already decided that unless he wins with an absolute majority of the votes, they are unanimously going to vote against him.




Back to topic: 59 new cases of COVID-19 in Belgium today. One professor of the VUB (Free University of Brussels) has proposed that they stop testing people for COVID-19 ─ and I quote ─ "because it's no use anyway." :rolleyes:

[Chris]

Bernie won't win. The Democratic super delegates have already decided that unless he wins with an absolute majority of the votes, they are unanimously going to vote against him.




Back to topic: 59 new cases of COVID-19 in Belgium today. One professor of the VUB (Free University of Brussels) has proposed that they stop testing people for COVID-19 ─ and I quote ─ "because it's no use anyway." :rolleyes:

It seems a pandemic is now a certainty. It may come in several waves. I don't think this is the end of Sars-2 in China either.

There are also 4 confirmed cases in Hungary now (Iranian and American students who brought the disease from their own countries). They've also quarantined a Japanese tour group until they're tested.

[Aragorn]

It seems a pandemic is now a certainty. It may come in several waves. I don't think this is the end of Sars-2 in China either.

There are also 4 confirmed cases in Hungary now (Iranian and American students who brought the disease from their own countries). They've also quarantined a Japanese tour group until they're tested.

Most of those who've got it here came from vacation or business trips to Italy, but there are effectively people who've contracted it here. So yes, it's a pandemic. :hmm:

[Emil El Zapato]

My daughter got over the flu awhile back. Does anybody know how covid reacts on a standard flu test. My daughter was positive for the flu

[Chris]

My daughter got over the flu awhile back. Does anybody know how covid reacts on a standard flu test. My daughter was positive for the flu

They're not related at all. Coronaviruses are a completely different kind of virus than flu viruses. MERS, SARS and now SARS-CoV2 are all pretty closely related, but none of them are currently treatable or have workable vaccines against them. Also, another way in which SARS-CoV2 is not like flu is that attacks the nervous system and can cause sudden heart and respiratory failure, as well as seizures.

However, the common cold, is often caused by certain types of coronavirus, as opposed to the flu (influenza), a distinction often lost in the English language, which may account for why so many people, including at the very top, confuse the coronavirus with influenza. I keep saying this over and over again, so once again, do keep in mind, this is not the flu.

[Wind]

http://youtu.be/fg7FwHteB0I

[Orbs]

I thought my last post made this morning was solid. I have been reporting from my perspective for a few weeks now.

Some of you don't live in the USA and it is interesting to read some of your takes on American politics including the trumpet. I don't interfere with any of it nor say a word when people bash the trumpet. I'm hopefully big enough to know the whole system is beyond broken. All of it. All serving the same master if you will.

In essence, the headlines and events don't map. The "reaction" has not been strong enough so they are pumping up the "problem." A stronger "reaction" was needed to move the plans along faster. This is why it is centimeter by centimeter.

For example, the CDC issued a warning, yes a warning, to expect disruption and loss of income. We haven't seen that in the USA at all. Not yet. However, it is like they were reading from a play book. People that do that plan. They are going to quarantine us and they are not going to stop until we are.

IMO the amount of quarantine in the USA has hardly started at all. I expect the CDC's warning to come to fruition. I don't bank on it. I don't dwell on it. I just understand mind control. Everyone I know will yield. So, it will happen.

So we have the holy trinity of fear - terrorist, viruses, and bad aliens. There is a terrorist under your bed and always will be. There are virus's on every door knob and your mail and it will never end and they are invisible.

We have seen two out of three. The alien card has not been played yet. It is the ace up the sleeve. I don't think it will be played I know it will be played. I don't know when. We can guess as long as the other two trinities of fear are doing a good job then it's anyone's guess when the alien ace will be played.

I can't say I wish to be quarantined. I can't say I will enjoy it. I can't say it will happen everywhere and in fact would imagine it won't. But I do understand what a playbook is and these people don't play games. They also like to use their playbook.

I am not quite yet a doom a gloomer. I expect this all to go away but a certain amount of tests are required. It just doesn't have the traction the headlines want. There is always next time, right? Poke the animals with a stick here and there and record the data.

This is why twitter and Facebook are so important. Instant Hegelian Dialectic feedback. No more waiting 3 months to collect the reaction/data. It's live baby! You can drive a million tweets in a day and they push it all into the database without anyone else striking a key.

Simulation. Instant Hegelian. With a "global" threat they push a global solution. This is a push for consolidation. It has morphed into a test of our willingness.

I wish I could get quarantined with a bunch of the opposite sex. Ha ha ha. Kind of begs the question of where would a good place to be quarantined be?

[Chris]

The thing about the virus is that we don't really know where it originated from and why it is here.

Could be engineered, could be a lab experience gone wrong, could even be nature's retaliation for humanity's destruction of the planet, or who knows, the wrath of the gods.

I don't know either, but the virus is here and it is dead serious, there is no fooling around with it. I don't think any of the outcomes will be pleasant, an Australian study drew up 7 possible scenarios, and the best-case scenario they could come up with, was 15 million dead and a 2.5 trillion dollar hit to global GDP, meaning a global recession. This one is going to cause a lot of pain and suffering, especially at the margins and the general vibe will be very black plaguey all over the world.

My own feeling is that this is it, the big event, call it the apocalypse if you will, but this is going to cause a major reset in the world and in just a few short years. The world a few years from now will be unrecognisable from the world today. As you may know, I am a kollapsnik, so I think daily life will be reorganised along much simpler and sustainable lines, most people will basically live like the Amish do today, homesteading and largely independent from any large-scale political control. I really think that our current industrial, highly destructive and psychopathic civilisation is going away, whether we like it or not. If we're lucky, we might return to an 18th century lifestyle, mostly centred around land, animals and agriculture, as well as much physical labour. It is only a hunch, but we shall see. And no, I don't think the Aliens are coming to save us, not this time, anyways. It's all up to us now.

[Emil El Zapato]

I don't know Chris...we are still dealing with preliminary circumstances...

I don't know what is best for humanity either. Everyone is consumed with self-determination and choices. My choice would be that we actually have choices. Give to High Tech that which is High Tech's and give to the Amish that which is Amish's. I do believe we can't do both on this planet. Humanity's desire to be 'differentiated' is too primeval in nature...I'm not sure that to not have that desire was intended for this world, this consciousness. Perhaps that is the big joke that the Archons have played on us...Thinking we had that choice.

[Aragorn]

The thing about the virus is that we don't really know where it originated from and why it is here.

Could be engineered, could be a lab experience gone wrong, could even be nature's retaliation for humanity's destruction of the planet, or who knows, the wrath of the gods.

I don't know either, but the virus is here and it is dead serious, there is no fooling around with it. I don't think any of the outcomes will be pleasant, an Australian study drew up 7 possible scenarios, and the best-case scenario they could come up with, was 15 million dead and a 2.5 trillion dollar hit to global GDP, meaning a global recession. This one is going to cause a lot of pain and suffering, especially at the margins and the general vibe will be very black plaguey all over the world.

My own feeling is that this is it, the big event, call it the apocalypse if you will, but this is going to cause a major reset in the world and in just a few short years. The world a few years from now will be unrecognisable from the world today. As you may know, I am a kollapsnik, so I think daily life will be reorganised along much simpler and sustainable lines, most people will basically live like the Amish do today, homesteading and largely independent from any large-scale political control. I really think that our current industrial, highly destructive and psychopathic civilisation is going away, whether we like it or not. If we're lucky, we might return to an 18th century lifestyle, mostly centred around land, animals and agriculture, as well as much physical labour. It is only a hunch, but we shall see. And no, I don't think the Aliens are coming to save us, not this time, anyways. It's all up to us now.

The numbers are interesting, though ─ I've just posted them on the Chris Thomas thread.


There are over 100'000 infections worldwide. More than half of those have recovered or are in the process of recovering.
There have so far been over 3'400 deaths worldwide due to this virus, but well over 3'000 of those were in the Wuhan province in China.

[Chris]

The numbers are interesting, though ─ I've just posted them on the Chris Thomas thread.


There are over 100'000 infections worldwide. More than half of those have recovered or are in the process of recovering.
There have so far been over 3'400 deaths worldwide due to this virus, but well over 3'000 of those were in the Wuhan province in China.


There are over 100.000 confirmed infections. How many actual infections there are is an open question, but I'd wager it is at least an order of magnitude higher than that. Ditto for deaths. They probably are also a lot higher than what we know of, given that anyone who died but wasn't tested and confirmed for this CoV would have been counted as having died from something else.

Iran alone probably has thousands of undeclared cases, they're digging mass graves for Chrissakes and people are dropping dead all over the place, just like they did in China.

There is just no way we only have 3000 deaths in Wuhan and China as a whole. Mobile Crematoria have been working non-stop for a month now, burning hundreds of bodies a day. There must have been tens of thousands of deaths in Wuhan alone, at the very least.

My own hunch, based on leaks coming out from China and Iran, is that in reality we are already heading towards a million dead and are about to go stratospheric in the death count. Buckle up folks, this is going to be a bumpy ride.

[Emil El Zapato]

I'm thinking that intelligence agencies would have a good idea of the true numbers, but who knows what they would do with the information.

[Emil El Zapato]

In the U.S. the first infections were in Washington State at a nursing home...(Something like that) A month ago they had 80 residents...now they have 55 with purportedly 16 deaths...that sounds pretty nasty to me...Tongue-in-Cheek here: On the bright side Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been contaminated and says he will self-quarantine.

Awhile back in Houston a poster made the statement that all liberals should self-quarantine and I responded that all Conservatives should hold a convention...damn, i was just kidding.

Apparently Cruz was exposed at what is known as CPAC (Essentially it is where all the conservatives gather to spread propaganda and lies).

CPAC: Conservative Political Action Conference

[Aragorn]

In the U.S. the first infections were in Washington State at a nursing home...(Something like that) A month ago they had 80 residents...now they have 55 with purportedly 16 deaths...that sounds pretty nasty to me...Tongue-in-Cheek here: On the bright side Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been contaminated and says he will self-quarantine.

Awhile back in Houston a poster made the statement that all liberals should self-quarantine and I responded that all Conservatives should hold a convention...damn, i was just kidding.

Apparently Cruz was exposed at what is known as CPAC (Essentially it is where all the conservatives gather to spread propaganda and lies).

CPAC: Conservative Political Action Conference

One of the funniest statements I read was in a tweet that was published at Project Avalon, and that read: "If I get the coronavirus, I'm going to start attending every Trump rally." :ha:

[Fred Steeves]

One of the funniest statements I read was in a tweet that was published at Project Avalon, and that read: "If I get the coronavirus, I'm going to start attending every Trump rally." :ha:

Nice.

[Chris]

Bad, bad news. The whole of Italy is now under lockdown. In other news...

We knew that Sars-Cov2 was exceptionally contagious, but the below Chinese study has unearthed some new information on how much. You can get infected through the air even if you are 4-5 metres away, especially if you are in an air-conditioned environment. The virus can survive on certain surfaces for several days and still be infective.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds

- Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away

- The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.
The researchers also found that it can last for days on surfaces where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if an unsuspecting person touches it and then rubs their face and hands.
The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a “safe distance” of one to two metres (three to six and a half feet).

https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2020/03/10/2367f83c-61fc-11ea-8e9f-2d196083a37c_972x_013618.jpg

“It can be confirmed that in a closed environment with air-conditioning, the transmission distance of the new coronavirus will exceed the commonly recognised safe distance,” the researchers wrote in a paper published in peer-review journal Practical Preventive Medicine last Friday.
The paper also highlighted the risk that the virus could remain afloat even after the carrier had left the bus.
The scientists warned that the coronavirus could survive more than five days in human faeces or bodily fluids.

They said the study proves the importance of washing hands and wearing face masks in public places because the virus can linger in the air attached to fine droplet particles.
“Our advice is to wear a face mask all the way [through the bus ride],” they added.
Their work was based on a local outbreak case on January 22 during the peak Lunar New Year travel season. A passenger, known as “A”, boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back.
The passenger already felt sick at that point but it was before China had declared the coronavirus outbreak a national crisis, so “A” did not wear a mask, nor did most of the other passengers or the driver on the 48-seat bus.

China requires closed circuit television cameras to be installed on all long-distance buses, which provided valuable footage for researchers to reconstruct the spread of the virus on the bus, whose windows were all closed.
Hu Shixiong, the lead author of the study who works for the Hunan Provincial Centre for Diseases Control and Prevention, said the security camera footage showed patient “A” did not interact with others throughout the four-hour ride.
But by the time the bus stopped at the next city, the virus had already jumped from the carrier to seven other passengers.

These included not only people sitting relatively close to “patient zero”, but also a couple of victims six rows away from him – roughly 4.5 metres away.
They all later tested positive, including one passenger who displayed no symptoms of the disease.
After these passengers left, another group got on the bus about 30 minutes later. One passenger sitting in the front row on the other side of the aisle also became infected.

Hu said the patient, who was not wearing a mask, was likely to have inhaled aerosols, or tiny particles, breathed out by the infected passengers from the previous group.
Aerosols are light-weighted particles that are formed from tiny droplets of bodily fluids.
“The possible reason is that in a completely enclosed space, the airflow is mainly driven by the hot air generated by the air conditioning. The rise of the hot air can transport the virus-laden droplets to a greater distance,” said the paper.
After getting off the shuttle bus, the initial carrier got on a minibus and travelled for another hour. The virus jumped to two other passengers, one of whom was also sitting 4.5 metres away from patient “A”.
By the time the study was finished in mid February, patient “A” had infected at least 13 people.
It is generally believed that the airborne transmission of Covid-19 is limited because the tiny droplets produced by patients will quickly sink to the ground.

This belief has prompted the Chinese health authorities to suggest that people should stay a metre apart in public and the US Centres for Disease Control recommend a safe distance of six feet (about 1.8 metres).
The researchers also found that none of those passengers in the two buses who wore face masks were infected.
They said it vindicated the decision to ask people to wear a face mask in public.

“When riding on more closed public transportation such as subways, cars, planes, etc, you should wear a mask all the time, and at the same time, minimise the contact between your hands and public areas, and avoid touching your face before cleaning,” they said.
The researchers also suggested improving sanitation on public transport and adjusting the air conditioning to maximise the volume of fresh air supplied.

They also said interiors should cleaned and disinfected once or twice a day, especially after passengers arrive at the terminal.
A doctor in Beijing involved in the diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19 patients said the study had left some questions unanswered.
For instance, the passengers sitting immediately next to the carriers were not infected, though they were suffering the highest exposure to the disease-bearing aerosols.
“Our knowledge about this virus’s transmission is still limited,” he said.

[Chris]

An important article from the Atlantic on the continued lack of testing in the US:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-testing-numbers/607714/

This really is becoming an international embarrassment at this point and makes one wonder if it really is just incompetence. It's almost as if the CDC is deliberately trying to encourage the spread of this virus. This continued Don't Test, Don't Tell policy is unlikely to end well.

Closer to home (for me), my Italian suppliers have just informed me that they can no longer deliver orders internationally. Apparently all cross-border deliveries (that is, both exports and imports) have stopped. The whole of Italy, 60 million people are now under strict lockdown. Prison inmates are rioting, demanding a general amnesty, like in Iran, with 7 now dead. There are tanks on the streets and people are essentially shut indoors. Scary stuff.

In Hungary, there are 9 confirmed cases of Covid-19, mostly international students, all of them in the capital, Budapest. Neighbouring Austria has over 100 cases now and that is probably an underestimate, given their proximity to Italy.

Stock markets and commodity prices are still dropping like a stone, with only gold holding up reasonably well and even rising. A worldwide deflationary depression is now a near-certainty, 1929-style. Note that during the Great Depression gold and US treasuries were the best safe havens, this is likely to repeat during the current depression we are already in.

[Dreamtimer]

And I'm traveling soon. And again after that. :shocked::blink::wacko:

I'm kinda glad my son currently lives in a very sparsely populated state.

[Chris]

And I'm traveling soon. And again after that. :shocked::blink::wacko:

I'm kinda glad my son currently lives in a very sparsely populated state.

Well, I would certainly prepare for a lockdown. E.g. pack in a way that you can stay where you are going indefinitely, maybe for a couple of weeks or even months. They may not let you back home if the place you're going to is locked down.

[Aragorn]

And I'm traveling soon. And again after that. :shocked::blink::wacko:

I'm kinda glad my son currently lives in a very sparsely populated state.

I think it would be wisest if everyone were to stop traveling for a while, even if only for a couple of weeks. People who board planes are screened for weapons and explosives, not for viruses. :hmm:

[Dreamtimer]

And not for viruses which make it very difficult to screen for. I do have insurance. Goodness gracious, what to do. :hmm:

[Chris]

Rumours are that a state of emergency is about to be declared on a federal level and Washington state is about to be locked down, with parts of New York not far behind. They still haven't started testing in earnest, but at least there are now some private labs that are authorised by the CDC to carry out testing. Expect the number of confirmed cases to go parabolic in the coming days. It will be much worse than Italy, given the delay in testing and the extra weeks the virus had to spread undetected. Expect the whole of the US to be on some sort of lockdown within the next week or two.

[Wind]

This might last for a few months and then we will see what the world has learned from it. Not so great times now.

[Aragorn]

This might last for a few months and then we will see what the world has learned from it. Not so great times now.

Somehow I think that the world won't have learned much from it. Governments, yes ─ they will have learned to be better prepared. But the people? Nah, they're already long beyond learning now. They only know knee-jerks anymore. :unsure:

[Aianawa]

Going into a calm place, preparing and using a mantra to keep mind out, relax afterwards and feel into the virus panic, get your own answer, please.

[Emil El Zapato]

well, I hope these aren't not-so-famous last words, but I got up this morning thinking that things are actually going to smooth out soon, at least the panic...

[Chris]

There is no panic yet, but there is stockpiling, which is only prudent, given that over 60s have been advised to stock up on a month's worth of supplies. I don't see why that wouldn't apply to everyone else as well.

If anything, people are still downplaying this and in denial.

All schools in nearby Czechia have been closed until further notice. Other countries are likely to follow suit starting next monday. Almost all of the cases here in Hungary have been foreign students (from Iran) and those that were in contact with them at Uni.

It is likely that all mass events and gatherings will be cancelled until at least June. Even weddings are now banned in Italy. Both my siblings were supposed to get married this year, but I guess the weddings are now off. We shall see...

[Chris]

New information is coming in all the time.

Angela Merkel gave a speech to German lawmakers. The government expects 70 percent of Germans to get infected over the next 2 years, or close to 60 million people. Whether you take the lowest possible mortality rate (1 percent) or the highest (8 percent, in Lombardy), We're talking at least half a million deaths, or, possibly, up to 5 million, depending on a number of factors.

A statewide lockdown in Washington is imminent. There is community spread all over the USA and still only a few thousand people have been tested, as opposed to 100,000 in South Korea. Conservatively, there must already be tens of thousands of cases in the US.

Taking the conservative German number, worldwide infections will probably come in at around 5-6 Billion over the next 2 years, with the number of dead ranging anywhere from 50 million to half a billion. Given that a billion people will be in need of ICU beds and there's a fraction of a fraction of that available worldwide, I think we can safely say that death rates will be in double digits, possibly as high as the 17 percent that some researchers have projected. In a worst-case scenario, we are still on course for a billion dead. The best case scenario now is a repeat of the Spanish flu epidemic with a few tens of millions dead. Only, this isn't the flu, so that seems unlikely.

[Emil El Zapato]

By my calculations 15 out of 16 that contract the disease will survive it for every death 15 have recovered

[Dreamtimer]

See here (https://jandeane81.com/showthread.php/10588-Joe-Rogan-Experience?p=842019178&viewfull=1#post842019178) for an in depth discussion.

[Emil El Zapato]

It occurred to me on the way home from work today 1 in 16 is 6.2 %, so much for that flash of insight:

Worldwide there have been approximately 4,000 deaths and 64,000 recoveries. I think the impact will be greater in some parts of the world as opposed to others. For example, China and Italy have been hard hit, but Africa has been by comparison lightly impacted...time will tell...

[Emil El Zapato]

Why we should stop comparing the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak to the 1918 Spanish flu
The Spanish flu killed tens of millions of people. Here’s what it can and can’t tell us about Covid-19.

In a climate of international conflict and turmoil, a disease begins to spread across the globe. It hits the United States on the way to becoming a worldwide pandemic. While most infected survive, the fatality rate is well above that of an ordinary flu. Eventually, one in three humans on earth is infected. At least 17 million people, and maybe as many as 100 million, perish.

This is not a prediction — it’s a description of how the influenza pandemic of 1918-’19 (which came to be erroneously known as the “Spanish flu”; more on that below) became one of the deadliest, if not the deadliest, disease outbreak in modern history.

Comparisons to the 1918 outbreak have been rife since the novel coronavirus outbreak began in January. We recently marked the centennial of the 1918 pandemic, and fear of a repeat pervades discussions of the current outbreak.

But even granting that we are early in the history of the coronavirus outbreak, there are important differences between our current predicament and the Spanish flu. The underlying diseases are different, and from what we know at this point, the case fatality rate of the coronavirus is lower, by some estimates, than that of the Spanish flu. We also enjoy a much more robust public health infrastructure in 2019; in 1918, as Laura Spinney documents in her pandemic history Pale Rider, medical experts still hadn’t agreed that the flu is caused by a virus.

Other differences, like the advent of widespread passenger air travel and much deeper global supply chains, put us at greater pandemic risk now than in 1918.

But many experts caution that we should avoid comparisons to the Spanish flu. As flu expert Jeremy Brown writes in the Atlantic, “What’s most striking about these comparisons … is not the similarities between the two episodes, but the distance that medicine has traveled in the intervening century.”

Spinney concurs. “The Spanish flu is one of the worst, if not the worst, pandemic humanity ever went through, and it’s really anomalous in the history of flu pandemics,” she explains. “We’ve had 15 flu pandemics in the last 500 years, and the last five since the 1890s have been properly measured in a scientific way. None [but the Spanish flu] has killed more than 3 million people maximum.”

The “Asian flu” of 1957 and the “Hong Kong flu” of 1968, for instance, were both met with more modern tools of disease surveillance and had death tolls in the range of 500,000 to 2 million: big numbers, for sure, but hardly 1918 levels.

A very, very brief history of the 1918 flu
As Spinney notes in Pale Rider, it can be difficult to pin down the exact origins of the 1918 influenza outbreak.

One theory has it starting on American soil, in Kansas, where it migrated from birds to humans. Albert Gitchell, an Army private and mess cook based in Fort Riley, Kansas, is sometimes identified as the first victim, reporting his symptoms on March 4, 1918. Unfortunately for the world, US soldiers at Fort Riley were at that point preparing for deployment to the Western Front of World War I.

A month later, Spinney writes, “the flu was epidemic in the American Midwest, on the cities of the eastern seaboard from which the soldiers embarked, and in the French ports where they disembarked.”

There are other theories, however. Spinney told me in a phone call that one theory tries to explain the unusual virulence of the 1918 flu by positing that it developed first in Europe’s trenches. Normally viruses decline in their deadliness over time because they need living hosts to keep spreading. That didn’t happen with the 1918 flu — perhaps, Spinney says, “because the virus might have got started in the trenches filled with young men who weren’t very mobile. They were stuck in the trenches like sardines for days, weeks, months. There was no evolutionary pressure for it to moderate its virulence.”


One theory posits that the 1918 flu that became a pandemic started in the trenches in Europe during World War I. Bettmann Archives/Getty Images
Whether it began in the trenches or ended up there after the arrival of American troops, the virus spread quickly to German soldiers and to neutral Spain. News of the flu was censored in most countries with war censorship regimes, leading authorities in Spain to erroneously think that it was alone in enduring such a brutal outbreak — hence the name “Spanish flu.” Russian POWs returning from Germany spread the disease to the newly created Soviet Union, and by May and June, various countries in Africa, as well as India, China, and Japan, all had outbreaks.

This is sometimes called the “first wave” of the flu, because while it had significant effects (particularly on World War I, where it weakened troops on both sides), it was not the debilitating crisis that we now remember as the Spanish flu.

The second wave, Spinney writes, began in August 1918 almost simultaneously in ports in Freetown, Sierra Leone; Brest, France; and Boston, Massachusetts. British imperial ships spread it around the country’s African holdings, and from South Africa it spread to the rest of the continent. In a matter of months, the flu was slowing down combat in Europe, spreading back to India, China, and Japan, and circulating through mass public celebrations of the war’s armistice on November 11.


Basically the only place not affected was Australia, but a “third wave” of the flu in late 1918 eventually hit there, too.

The second wave of the flu, in particular, had more brutal effects than typical influenza, not least because it was likelier than the ordinary flu to be joined by bacterial pneumonia. This, subsequent research has suggested, caused most of the deaths in the 1918 flu outbreak.

When all was said and done, the flu had killed between 17 million and 100 million. That’s a wide range. While today countries keep detailed records of testing and diagnosis for new outbreaks (as they’ve been doing during the coronavirus crisis), there was no such record-keeping capacity in the late 1910s. As such, research has to rely on estimates comparing actual mortality to a “baseline” level of mortality that would have occurred without the flu. Accurate actual death rates are hard enough to cobble together, given the unreliability of death records from the period, but estimating counterfactual deaths without the flu is harder still.

It’s hard to say when, exactly, the pandemic outbreak receded. The third wave, beginning in the winter of 1918-’19, subsided by that summer, and the virus likely lurked around for years, not causing pandemics because most survivors had been exposed and developed antibodies. The long-term health and economic costs were substantial. Economist Douglas Almond has estimated that people exposed in utero to the flu in 1918-’19 received less education, earned lower incomes, and were likelier to have disabilities than people who missed the pandemic in the womb.

Similarities and differences between the 1918 outbreak and now
The Spanish flu is frightening because it demonstrates that in a reasonably modern society, a pandemic killing tens of millions of people is very plausible. But that “reasonably modern” society was still much more primitive when it came to medicine and public health than the world of today.

Here are a few facts about public health in the year 1918:

We did not know that influenza is caused by a virus, and in fact the scientist Richard Pfeiffer had convinced most of the medical community that it was caused by bacteria; it wasn’t until 1933 that researchers proved conclusively that the flu is a viral infection.
Antibiotics capable of treating flu-related pneumonia infections (which are typically caused by bacteria) were 10 years from being discovered.
Antiviral drugs were many decades from being developed; the first came out in 1963.
There was no World Health Organization, and efforts to surveil and track the outbreak of new diseases were incredibly rudimentary.
Most countries in Europe were under war censorship regimes that limited the spread of accurate, lifesaving information about the flu outbreak.
For all the advances we’ve made since, what’s striking is how some of the measures authorities instituted at the time look very much like the ones we’re seeing with the coronavirus outbreak. Spinney told me, “They had the kind of social distancing measures that we’re still using today: isolation, quarantine, masks, hand-washing, staggering rush hour so you don’t have massive crowds in the metro and the streets. Those are techniques that are very ancient. People have always understood you have to keep the healthy and the sick separate.”

We must also weigh the massive strides in public health made since 1918 against the advent of global supply chains and passenger air travel. “We have a global population that is four times the size, and at least in the industrialized world, the populations are much older with respect to 1918, and old age weakens immune systems,” Spinney continues. All of that makes us more vulnerable, not less, to a pandemic like this. While antivirals are useful against coronavirus, we do not have a vaccine and will not for at least 18 months, somewhat limiting the public health value of our scientific advances over the last 100 years.

One way we can compare the two outbreaks is by looking at case fatality rates: the share of infections that lead to death. This is always difficult to estimate because there are likely more infections than have been identified by medical authorities. According to Johns Hopkins researchers, as of this writing there have been 111,363 cases of Covid-19 and 3,892 deaths, for a case fatality rate of about 3.5 percent.


But you should take that number with a grain of salt. Countries’ testing protocols vary widely and many, including the US, have only tested a few thousand people while others, like South Korea, have tested hundreds of thousands. That means the denominator for the case fatality rate — the total number of infections — is uncertain, and might be undercounted due to lack of testing. In South Korea, the case fatality rate is currently 0.7 percent, suggesting that better testing might yield more accurate, lower rates. At the same time, as Julia Belluz explains, accurately measured fatality rates are also going to vary significantly from country to country due to differences in health system capacity, low- and middle-income people’s access to health care, etc.

The case fatality rate of the Spanish flu is often cited as 2.5 percent, but this is likely a dramatic underestimate, as science writer Ferris Jabr has written.

The most frequently cited death statistics for the Spanish flu come from Niall Johnson and Juergen Mueller’s 2002 study, which estimated the death toll at 50 million and warned that this might be as much as a 100 percent underestimate, implying a total toll of 100 million. A more recent 2018 paper by Pete Spreeuwenberg, Madelon Kroneman, and John Paget gets a much lower estimate of 17.4 million. If the frequently cited estimate of 500 million infections globally is correct, then the latter death toll implies a case fatality rate of 3.5 percent, but using a higher death toll of 50 million, the fatality rate rises to 10 percent.

This is a huge range of uncertainty. Given how imprecise our counts of total global infections for both the Spanish flu and coronavirus are and how imprecise our estimates for the former’s death toll are, it is hard to say anything definitive about how they stack up against each other in terms of case fatality.

The diseases also differed in whom they infected. The Spanish flu, unusually for an influenza, was less lethal for older people, perhaps because a similar 1830s flu outbreak granted older people still alive in 1918 some limited immunity. The coronavirus, by contrast, has had its most devastating impact in China on older people.

Both Covid-19 and the Spanish flu have already had massive effects outside of their immediate health consequences. The Spanish flu, many World War I historians agree, sped up the end of the war by weakening the ability of each side to field armies; it may even have affected the outcome, though the evidence there is weaker.

Covid-19’s economic effects might outstrip the Spanish flu’s, even if the health effects remain much milder, due to the economy’s move toward in-person services, hospitality, and globalized supply chains, all of which are vulnerable to an outbreak like this. Indeed, one effect in 1918 that is not likely to be repeated is an increase in wages in some countries due to a shortage of workers.

It’s natural to want to compare the two outbreaks, and it can be responsible to do so if the comparison is done with care and nuance. But it’s important to keep in mind just how severe the Spanish flu outbreak was, and that while Covid-19 could get much worse, it would have to infect several thousand times as many people as it has to date to match the Spanish flu’s reach. The Covid-19 situation will only get that bad if we fail to adequately adopt measures like social distancing, aggressive testing, and quarantining, and let it get that bad.

[Wind]

Trump suspends travel from Europe to US:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51846923


In a televised address on Wednesday, he said all travel from Europe would be suspended for the next 30 days.

But he said the "strong but necessary" restrictions would not apply to the UK, where 460 cases of the virus have now been confirmed.

There are 1,135 confirmed cases of the virus across the US, with 38 deaths.

"To keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days," Mr Trump said.

"The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight," he added.

[Wind]

I don't want to sound alarmist quite yet, but the stock market is taking a severe hit:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-just-tumbled-into-a-bear-market-ending-the-longest-bull-market-run-in-historyheres-how-those-downturns-last-on-average-2020-03-11?mod=home-page

[Dreamtimer]

And it was just last month my brother was bragging about the economy. Even though the markets are not the economy. They are an indicator. And they are very emotional.

[Wind]

They are very volatile and things like this just show how ridiculous and fragile the whole system is, it's like a house of cards.

[Dreamtimer]

Yeah, my Dad explained that to me decades ago. When we stop trusting each other, the house will begin to fall.

[Chris]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

Singapore Wins Praise For Its COVID-19 Strategy. The U.S. Does Not

Hong Kong and Singapore were hit early with the coronavirus. But each now has fewer than 200 cases, while France, Germany and Spain, which were hit late, all have more than 10 times that number.

Three weeks ago, Italy had only three cases. Now it has more than 10,000.
These dramatic differences show that how governments respond to this virus matters, says Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization's head of emergencies.
"Hope is not a strategy," says Ryan, who is an epidemiologist. "We are still very much in the up cycle of this epidemic."

The veteran of numerous global health crises, from SARS to bird flu to Ebola, Ryan points out that incredibly aggressive measures by China, South Korea and Japan appear to be bringing outbreaks in those countries under control.
"There's clearly an indication that a systematic government-led approach using all tactics and all elements available seems to be able to turn this disease around," he says.

He has been pleading with governments around the world to prepare for the new coronavirus before it shows up at their door — or to spring into action when it does arrive.

That's what Hong Kong and Singapore did.

Both quickly set up systems to try to identify and treat every case in their territory. Hong Kong developed diagnostic tests and rapidly deployed them to labs at every major hospital in the city. At one point in February, Hong Kong had 12,000 people in quarantine. Singapore's prime minister called for calm and assured residents that all health care related to the disease would be free.

Both Hong Kong and Singapore continue to find a few new cases each week, but they've avoided the explosive outbreaks that have occurred elsewhere.
Ashish Jha, who runs the Harvard Global Health Institute, says the response to the coronavirus has varied dramatically around the world. "Some countries have been very aggressive and have actually done quite a good job," he says. "Other countries have been quite lackadaisical and, I think, have suffered immensely from it. And I think there are lessons to be learned for all of us."

Italy and Iran both fall in the latter category. Jha says that before cases of COVID-19 were first diagnosed, Italy and Iran appeared to be in denial about the disease.
"I mean, you had the Iran deputy health minister coughing on national television talking about coronavirus," Jha says. "But really not taking it seriously."
That deputy health minister later tested positive for the virus.
As people started to get sick, neither Italy nor Iran did much testing. They were slow to stop mass gatherings. Eventually both countries were overwhelmed with cases.

So how has the United States' response been?

"Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected," Jha says.
He uses the words "stunning," "fiasco" and "mind-blowing" to describe how bad it is.

"And I don't understand it," he says incredulously. "I still don't understand why we don't have extensive testing. Vietnam! Vietnam has tested more people than America has." (He's citing data from earlier this week. The U.S. has since started testing more widely, although exact figures still aren't available at a national level.)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started screening overseas travelers for coronavirus in mid-January. But the initial test kits developed by the CDC were flawed, and it took weeks to sort out the problems. It's only this week that wide-scale testing has started to become available in the United States.
Jha believes that the weekslong delay in deploying tests — at a time when numerous other tests were available around the world — has completely hampered the U.S. response to this crisis.

"Without testing, you have no idea how extensive the infection is. You can't isolate people. You can't do anything," he says. "And so then we're left with a completely different set of choices. We have to shut schools, events and everything down, because that's the only tool available to us until we get testing back up. It's been stunning to me how bad the federal response has been."

He says right now there are probably five to 10 times as many cases out in the community as have actually been detected. Until these individuals are found, they are likely to infect more people, he says, and the outbreak in the United States is just going to continue to grow.

As of Wednesday night ET, the U.S. had 1,281 cases, while Hong Kong, which started testing in January, had only 126.

[Dreamtimer]

We've collectively become dolts.

[Chris]

Here's the part that concerns me:


So how has the United States' response been?

"Our response is much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected," Jha says.
He uses the words "stunning," "fiasco" and "mind-blowing" to describe how bad it is.

"And I don't understand it," he says incredulously. "I still don't understand why we don't have extensive testing. Vietnam! Vietnam has tested more people than America has."

And I agree, it makes no logical sense why the US response has been as it is, especially on the federal level.

So, I'm putting my Krazy Konspirasi Theorist tinfoil hat on for a minute and will try to wildly speculate about what might be going on here.

Something about the US response has not made sense to me from the very beginning.

There are certain pieces lying about, but putting them together has not really been possible so far. I intend to check out what David Icke has to say on the subject, because he usually has a knack for seeing through the deception, notwithstanding some of his more outlandish material.

There is something seriously wrong with this whole setup, I can feel it in my bones.

My main concern is this:

- The Neocons were removed from power just before the outbreak got under way.

- During that time, there was a trade war going on between the US and China, which was very tense and the "truce" was signed after the epidemic was already on the way in November.

- Accusations, that this was a US-manufactured bioweapon were flying about from the very beginning, especially in Russia, who have probably better intel on this than anyone else. Putin is a hardcore ex-KGB/FSB guy, remember.

- The US both the means and the motivation to deploy such a weapon against China and Iran, which were the two countries with the most serious outbreak in the beginning.

- Trump seemed almost gleeful when he first spoke about the Coronavirus, saying things like this was a win for the USA and it would greatly benefit the country.

- The CDC and other officials seem strangely unconcerned about the spread of the Virus in the US. Do they have a vaccine oven-ready, so-to-speak.

Anyways, the above is pure speculation, but I am at the very least suspicious about the circumstances of this outbreak.

[Wind]

Or maybe it's just that Trump is really not the smartest guy around and his administration is totally incompetent.

[Aragorn]

Or maybe it's just that Trump is really not the smartest guy around and his administration is totally incompetent.

Naaaahhhhhh! Ya think? :ha:

[Emil El Zapato]

I have a more mundane explanation. What we are seeing is the culmination of Trumpism. For three years he has been creating an alternate reality for the trump worlders to live in. A world where he is the master-in-chief. He has systematically dismantled the institutions that sane human beings realize provide stability to a very chaotic world and was cheered as he did it. As Strother Martin said in “Cool Hand Luke”. “If that’s the way you want it,that’s the way you gets it.” Personally I think it’s pathetic.

[Wind]

I have a more mundane explanation. What we are seeing is the culmination of Trumpism. For three years he has been creating an alternate reality for the trump worlders to live in.

As Chris Hedges said (https://jandeane81.com/showthread.php/8857-Trump-Illusion-Mist-and-Bought?p=842019203&viewfull=1#post842019203), Trump has created a "reality" where he and his followers live in a collective psychosis.

[Chris]

Or maybe it's just that Trump is really not the smartest guy around and his administration is totally incompetent.

That would be my first thought too, but it seems far too convenient.


Never attribute to incompetence, that which is adequately explained by evil.

is my version of Hanlon's razor.

[Chris]

Our local pharmacy. In hindsight, perhaps not the best choice of names…

And the shopping mall next to it is similarly poorly named.

The name of the Coronavirus in Hungarian is Koronavírus, but most people just refer to it as Korona.

I wonder if business has been affected?

http://www.sopronapartman.hu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/IMG_3076.jpg

[Dreamtimer]

People are still flying into the US and not being tested. Not even their temperature. If the US was planning to infect others it wouldn't leave itself open as it has.

Occam's razor says that this is pure and simple incompetence. Trump fired his pandemic response team last year (I think). Trump doesn't want the stock market to fall the way it has.

It's simply incompetence. Nothing more complicated than that.

"Heckuva job, Brownie" seems like the good old days. (Hurricane Katrina ref there)

Take a look at the political 'yes men' game being played out. People cannot speak the simple truth for fear of being fired.

It's incompetence, sad to say.

[Chris]

People are still flying into the US and not being tested. Not even their temperature. If the US was planning to infect others it wouldn't leave itself open as it has.

Occam's razor says that this is pure and simple incompetence. Trump fired his pandemic response team last year (I think). Trump doesn't want the stock market to fall the way it has.

It's simply incompetence. Nothing more complicated than that.

"Heckuva job, Brownie" seems like the good old days. (Hurricane Katrina ref there)

Take a look at the political 'yes men' game being played out. People cannot speak the simple truth for fear of being fired.

It's incompetence, sad to say.

I read an article that yesterday only 8 people were tested in the whole of the United States.

Another article claimed that 1 percent of Ohio's population is already infected. Officially only 5 are confirmed, yet the Governor of that state claims the real number is roughly 117.000

I think that 1 percent is a good estimation for the rest of the US. There must already be millions of infected.

On the other hand, since the hospitals aren't overflowing yet, it may also mean that the US has a particularly mild strain with very low serious complication and death rates. The evidence Indicates that there are several strains and the one in Italy and Iran is particularly deadly.

[Wind]

People have been hoarding toilet paper, (gas) masks, medicine, canned food and pasta here. It would be hilarious if it wouldn't seem so stupid. Public events with over 500 people have been cancelled. 155 confirmed cases and more to come, the government is preparing for a full blown epidemic.

[Chris]

Perkele

[Emil El Zapato]

Even as a bona fide neurotic I’m not prone to panic but this is making me nervous. There may be millions affected and hopefully with a mild strain here in the us

[Chris]

Even as a bona fide neurotic I’m not prone to panic but this is making me nervous. There may be millions affected and hopefully with a mild strain here in the us

On the other hand, it might just be the delay between people contracting the disease, showing symptoms and actually needing to be hospitalized. This delay might be several weeks. Expect an Italy-type scenario in several US states in the next couple of weeks.

Yes, I admit, I am nervous too. Not so much for myself, but for my elderly parents and because I don't welcome the disruption to daily life and even permanent changes that this will undoubtedly bring. I suspect we can wave goodbye to several prominent features of globalization, at least for some years, maybe forever. Things like foreign travel, cruise ships, cheap gadgets from China, global supply chains, etc...

Big changes are a'coming and we will all have to adjust our behaviour accordingly.

[Emil El Zapato]

I work for a very large company. They just went work from home in the us

[Chris]

Full-blown panic has hit my little corner of the world. Even though I'd known what was about to happen since the end of January, most people here have been in total denial and are only now starting to wake up.

The borders are closed from Sunday evening and since I live in a border town which acts as a bedroom community for Vienna (most people here commute across the border to their jobs in Austria), people are suddenly realising how serious this is, most people won't be able to go to work on monday, there are snaking lines in front of pharmacies and grocery stores. Everyone I speak to describes the mood as "apocalyptic".

[Emil El Zapato]

I guess I’ll reserve my bug-eyed mode until McDonald’s shuts down

[Aragorn]

People have been hoarding toilet paper, (gas) masks, medicine, canned food and pasta here.

From what I could tell during my visit to the supermarket yesterday, it seems to be mainly toilet paper and hand soap over here. The hand soap shelf ─ granted, it's not very big ─ was all empty, and the toilet paper shelves were half empty.

As of today, Belgium has 556 registered COVID-19 infections, of whom one has fully recovered and three have died. The three people who died were all seniors ─ one was in his late 60s, another was in their late 70s and one woman was 90 and was already being monitored for other conditions that severely weakened her immune system.

The country is not going in lockdown, but schools must be closed ─ until the 3rd of April, at least ─ by government order, and the same is true for all bars, cafés, restaurants and clubs, although hotels may remain open. All cultural and sports events have now also been canceled.

There have also ─ and this is commendable ─ already been many local and voluntary initiatives to help reduce the spread of the virus prior to the official government directive. For instance, soccer clubs were already deciding for themselves not to go ahead with planned games, and individual towns had decided to close down their local public swimming pools. Many events were voluntarily being canceled, although there was already a preliminary government-ordered prohibit on events that would bring more than 1'000 people together.

I do applaud all those who've taken it upon themselves to cancel their activities and make an effort at preventing the spread of the disease ─ and I am equally outraged with everyone who has been or still may be exhibiting irresponsible behavior while in denial of the situation ─ but I am also glad that for once, our government has managed to cast an objective and well-considered response to the situation by forbidding certain things without locking down the whole country.

For a moment there, I thought they were not going to be responding to the situation at all, but apparently they have now, and ─ again ─ in a well-considered way. Kudos to them. :like:

[Aianawa]

From Matt Kahn's FB page >

From Coronavirus to Consciousness

Dear Aianawa,

With the widespread panic of pandemic flu in the air, whether creating the anticipated perception of illness in your mind to fight, track, and avoid, or experiencing symptoms that have you more sincerely worried for your wellbeing than ever before, there is always an equal opportunity to allow any form of collective hysteria to act as wake up calls to greater consciousness — within you and the planet.

Although perhaps not visible to most, this outbreak is evidence of how quickly consciousness is already waking up worldwide. I am not suggesting that due to consciousness awakening, a dormant virus known as Corona has manifested in many lives. What I can point out is how clearly the narrative of this global news story has put a lot of people into a constant state of fear. When steeped in fear, you enter survival mode where you must rely on the impulses and demands of your ego versus the instincts of your evolving soul’s wisdom. While I affirm the 'fear of pandemic' is more of a pandemic than perhaps any virus could be, there is no doubt that an outbreak of fear has entered our local and collective atmospheres. Thankfully, it will be unable to slow the progress of an awakening consciousness that cannot be opposed or denied. The faster consciousness wakes up, the more it speeds up the fabric of time. The faster the fabric of time speeds up, the less opportunity there is for fear to operate with any degree of influence over our awakening consciousness.

Using this notion of time distortion, the unconscious patterning of fear stays in power when the fabric of time slows. As the fabric of time slows, progress halts. The only way the fabric of time slows is when the evolution of consciousness is paused in some way. And, of course, the only means through which this occurs is when human beings align with fear.

I am not saying there isn’t a coronavirus. I’m just very clear on its highest purpose. The fabric of time is a constant ticking mechanism of measurement, and yet, within each passing moment is a field of infinite spaciousness that can be molded to match the whim of intention. This means a clock never stops ticking, but you can either slow or speed up the ticking of time to allow days to pass as seconds or seconds to span the dawn of days. And yet, this slowing of time can only occur, if humanity is more aligned with fearing the worst, than utilizing this climate of uncertainty as a space through which the consciousness of all continues to unite and awaken as One. So how do you use this pandemic of fear as a catalyst for greater conscious awareness? Just as many are using herbal remedies to address the onset of any symptom, from a vibrational perspective, our first line of defense is gratitude. First, I’ll explain why this is such an effective tool and then provide an interactive mantra to help you anchor its frequency throughout your field.

In order for gratitude to be a remedy for fear, it has to be opposite of fear in some way. Since fear is the withholding of your light, gratitude is the willingness to share your light for the benefit of yourself and wellbeing of others. Such a shift occurs through the cultivation of courage. Just as courage is the feeling of owning the beauty of your own inherent power, fear is a sensation felt when your power has been given to something artificial or outside of the effect of your will. Because gratitude contains a felt sense of celebration, through the expression of gratefulness, you are, in fact, stripping anything of the power you unknowingly gave away and reclaiming it as the embodied courageous presence of your soul.

In order to anchor the vibration of gratitude, it must be authentic in its expression. The only reason fear plays such a powerful role in anyone’s life is due to how authentically afraid anyone is capable of being. Here are some real world examples of how you can authentically choose gratitude, even during uncertain times like these: Now more than ever, people are covering their mouths when coughing and washing their hands on a regular basis. Without needing fear as a motivator, we can be grateful that such a virus has inspired a greater mindfulness in cleansing ourselves and being mindful of the purity of other people’s space of experience. While many schools have temporarily closed, it gives families opportunities to come together and receive the emotional support that allows such a pivotal moment in Earth’s Ascension to highlight the importance of cultivating each relationship to its highest frequency of resonance. Even for those who can’t afford childcare, there have been many teenagers in Washington state who have organized to offer free babysitting while parents go to work in support of their families.

While there is obviously a strong vibration of mass hysteria, many are stopping to ask deeper existential questions that wake each of us up out of the narrative of a dying matrix, swiftly moving us over into parallel timelines of rapid growth, acceleration, and expansion. While the matrix of an outdated paradigm was created as 'patterns of doing' to such an unconscious degree, this made it nearly impossible for any sentient being to pause throughout the day and realign with Source in moments of restorative beingness, our daily rhythm of ‘do, do, do’ has been interrupted by an opportunity to dive headfirst into an inner dimension of being, where there is nowhere to go, no one to be, and nothing to do but connect, align, grow, and expand during this pivotal time of rebirth. When you or someone you know is not so mesmerized by the changes taking place, these important times can be used as opportunities to get to know who you are emotionally and vibrationally, which helps align the subtle bodies of your energy field into greater harmonic concordance.

Lastly, when you express gratitude, you are acknowledging the presence of something as inherently containing value. Beyond each perception of how something contains value in the outer world, the prime value in anything, including the coronavirus is the consciousness dwelling within it. When you react fearfully to any form, you are subconsciously asking that form to stay informed, so you can continually respond fearfully towards it. If not wishing to react fearfully to any particular form, we implement the vibration of gratitude to courageously acknowledge the value of consciousness within it, which creates a deeper relationship between you and the form in view. When aligning with the consciousness of any form, through moments of gratitude, as co-creators of our reality, you are commanding the form in view to become its highest consciousness, which in this example, would invoke the coronavirus to dissolve back into its original form of pure eternal light. To support your strongest immune system, wake up out of the matrix of fear, and reclaim the glory of your long-awaited courage, clarity, consciousness, and power, please repeat the following words:

“Thank you coronavirus for being the wake up call this world has needed. Even just the fact that I am saying thank you and coronavirus in the same sentence is already helping me dissolve spiritual superstitions that claim I’ll manifest what I speak out loud. Of course, such fanciful thinking could only be the inner workings of fear disguised as spiritual concept, and if I needed this type of pandemic environment to fully wake up, then so be it.

Thank you coronavirus for the mindfulness being instilled in so many beings. As we wash our hands, may we cleanse our realities from broken paradigms of corruption. As we explore more time for 'being' than lifetimes of endless 'doing', may the world take pause from unhealthy habits of survival mode to explore life from a deeper state of peace, harmony, and oneness. As friends and families come together, may this bring neighbors and communities together in intended peaceful assembly as our new 5D earth continues to be birthed in the glory of my awareness and presence.

Thank you gratitude for showing me how to create relationships with the consciousness in all forms, so not to be hypnotized by the power I unknowingly give to things outside of me. Thank you gratitude for showing me that the power of my perception is stronger than any pandemic of fear. In knowing it is so, I allow all patterns, characters, and agendas of scarcity, victimhood, fear, abuse, survival mode, greed, and corruption to be cleared out of my energy field, returned to the Source of its origin, transmuted completely, and healed to completion now. From this moment forward, as the co-creator of my reality, I command all power I unknowingly gave away to be swiftly returned to my energy field, I strengthen my immune system with higher frequencies of embodied integrated light, as I transmute the echo of unconscious form by acknowledging and praising the consciousness within it.

Because the consciousness of all is the consciousness I AM, I allow each moment of gratitude to return each form in view to the purity, holiness, and perfection of eternal light, now that I am ready, willing, and able to step forward as the truth and transmission of Source in form. May this intention heal my being, uplift each circumstance, and transform reality for myself, my family, my relationships, my friends and neighbors, for humanity at large and beyond.

Thank you gratitude for transforming coronavirus back into light. Thank you for reminding me the power that is always within me. And so I’m healed, transformed, and reborn as the light of consciousness I AM now.”

As we remember the word, ‘Corona’ means crown, we are undergoing a radical process to en-sure the fabric of time remains accelerated to restore balance and consciousness in every heart. As each of us reclaim the power of our crowns, we are taking back the throne of Heaven’s kingdom from a patterns of imbalance and unconscious addictive cycling that was only designed by the highest consciousness to be the very catalyst of awakening waking up within you. It doesn’t have to be done with aggression or fear, but with the courage of your highest truth that relates to the consciousness in things, no matter how anything seems or appears.
This is what it means to wake up from the matrix. If you are reading these words, I can confirm your waking up is well underway. Instead of fearfully interacting with uncomfortable feelings, physical symptoms, or scary news headlines, let's us employ the power of gratitude to unite with the consciousness in each form, so to transform it back into light by honoring the value it offers. On behalf of the Universe, the Akashic Records overseeing the Earth’s Ascension, and all Galactic Councils holding space for the awakening sovereignty of each sentient being, I am here with you every step of the way. Victory to the light I AM now.

All For Love,
Matt Kahn

[Emil El Zapato]

https://productimages.worldofbooks.com/0586208925.jpg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WUyZXhLHMk

[Chris]

The CDC's modelling for expected US cases, hospitalisations and fatalities has leaked. It should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention, but most people will get it, up to 20 percent might need hospitalisation and there could be millions of deaths.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[Emil El Zapato]

Here's an interesting stat: New York had it's 1st recorded death with currently 500 active cases.

Make that 2 deaths....

[Chris]

The first likely Coronavirus-related death has been reported in Hungary. A woman died of severe pneumonia, her daughter tested positive for Ncov, but they never tested her mother, despite her having all the symptoms.

It seems that Hungary will follow along the course the US has laid out in not testing nearly enough people and being completely unprepared.

BTW, to put this into perspective, Singapore has had some of the earliest cases of Ncov back in January, there have been over 200 cases so far and still NO DEATHS!!!

They're just doing an amazing job with this and it shows how it should be done. They did not need any tyrannical social control measures, like in China, just an informed populace and a competent, open and honest government that did its best to come clean with the populace, and keep them informed in a transparent and timely manner. Ditto for Taiwan and to a lesser extent, Hong Kong and Korea.

The rest of the world on the other hand, has really fucked this up and we will pay a heavy price for it, not least economically, but also just in terms of the overall number of sick people overwhelming our decrepit and crumbling public health systems, which have been defunded all over the West in the name of austerity and cost-cutting. This one is really going to hurt and will finally put an end to any remaining illusion about Western dominance and superiority. We are fucked. We are mightily and royally fucked.

[Wind]

I'm still not that concerned about this virus, at least health-wise, economically maybe. Of course it's good to take precautions and use your common sense. We humans have gotten through many bad things, we will get through this too.

[Emil El Zapato]

This is a perfect model for human behavior, Wind.

For example, you state that you aren't too concerned about it. The obvious correlation seems to be you are under the age of high risk groups...

My graph would show the level of concern directly correlates with age. Nothing brings into focus one's age better than the risk of death. I'm in a high risk group but honestly I'm isolating for the most part and that is calming (that's not really a change in lifestyle for me), I will go out and do what I need to do but won't get crazy with handshaking, hugging, spitting, etc. At this point, I'm somewhat ambivalent about how this thing proceeds. I don't want to see rampant dying, but strangely (human behavior again), I don't mind working from home and the spread of this disease facilitates that for me.

And there was that 'prediction' of the quick 'slowing' of the advance of COVID-19. It doesn't appear that it will be accurate but it wasn't really a 'flash' or a dream just a 'feeling'. Ego, ego, ego is completely irrational.

[Chris]

I'm still not that concerned about this virus, at least health-wise, economically maybe. Of course it's good to take precautions and use your common sense. We humans have gotten through many bad things, we will get through this too.

Well yes, us humans will get through this of course, in the end, once herd immunity is achieved, it will be barely worse than seasonal Influenza. That is in fact the British Goverment's plan. Only trouble with that is that millions may die before the remaining "herd" becomes immune and I'd rather not think of humans as cattle, where the herd needs to be thinned once in a while, let the weak and old die off so that the young and strong have more resources. That is essentially what seems to be happening now. Maybe it's even natural, but that doesn't make it something we should be nonchalant about.

[Wind]

I of course wish that there will be a minimal amount of suffering or death, but we can do only so much.


http://youtu.be/5Tr8qZCVxhA

[Dreamtimer]

Great eight seconds. :)

I worry sometimes. I've seen folks with a lot of anxiety and that doesn't look good to me.

Some seem to enjoy their anxiety, like it's a tool to use.

I'm better off not worrying. It distracts. It's good to learn how to face what you're afraid of, then there's less worry.

[Emil El Zapato]

I have to go shopping for my work from home setup...wish me luck... :)

[Aragorn]

Bill Ryan just posted the following at Project Avalon...




I just caught this as a brief update on the Guardian's running news thread. It was posted 9 hours ago, and there was nothing else said, and no reference.


https://theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy?page=with:block-5e6dee8b8f085e564ad84631#block-5e6dee8b8f085e564ad84631

~~~

German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has reported that US president Donald Trump has sought exclusive rights to a vaccine for the coronavirus which is being developed by a German-based company, CureVac.

The report, which quoted unnamed sources, said Trump had offered large sums of money to German scientists working on the vaccine.

Edit to add: a reference has now been given.


https://welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html?wtmc=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web



WTF?! :shocked:

[Chris]

I've just read a Hungarian article about the preparedness of the local healthcare system, availability of protective gear, protocols in place, etc...

The situation is tragic. Most doctors haven't even seen proper protective gear, let alone have access to them. The average age of doctors and nurses is close to 60, so most are actually in the danger zone themselves. There are no N95 masks or any sort of adequate protective gear available in any significant numbers, even rubber gloves, hand sanitisers and surgical masks are in short supply. These of course offer next to no protection against infection. Retired doctors are being called back into service, including a friend's dad who is 75 and has serious underlying health conditions. But he used to be a military doctor, and if he refused to be recalled into service, he'd face jail time. So, his choice is between almost certain death and jail. Nice choices at 75 with deteriorating health... I advised him to flee the country whilst he still can.

In other news, nearby Austria is now in total lockdown, nobody is allowed to leave their place of abode, except for work purposes and to buy food, all other activities are prohibited. My brother-in-law owns hair salons in Austria, his business is now basically bust. Another friend just started a small business running a laundry service for Austrian hostels across the border. He and his girlfriend both quit their jobs about 3 months ago and sank everything into this business. Now they're bust and can't even pay rent. They're moving back to Budapest to live with their parents for the time being. Another friend is a stewardess with Austrian Airlines. They have already sent most of the staff on unpaid leave, but layoffs are coming pretty soon. British Airways, Norwegian Air and many other airways are fighting for survival and might fold in a matter of weeks, unless they're bailed out. Bank runs and a massive financial system collapse is soon to follow. Do not keep your money in the bank folks, withdraw everything you can, whilst it's still possible.

The virus isn't even here yet, but the effects are already devastating. Unfortunately, it will only get worse.

[Emil El Zapato]

Ok, I'm back...so far I am neither slobbering nor do I have untrollable flatulence, so I reckon' I'm good for now...

At the store, it was mostly white people and asians hording. Negroes are immune and Mexicans are too stupid to understand the risk.

But seriously folks, I was in the checkout line and these two ladies, one in her 70's and another in her mid 50's were likely discussing people's behavior. I swear one of them leanded over and whispered 'white people' to the other...they were both white so I found this 'interesting'. In about a minute a South Asian clerk hugged the older lady and I loudly exclaimed, "Hey, You're not supposed to do that anymore!" The younger of the two ladies heard me and just looked and smiled. My departing thought about the older lady was , "Trumper", as I shook my head walking away.

If what you're reporting is true, Aragorn...put another check mark in the disturbed psychopath side of the ledger.

[Wind]

http://youtu.be/5v6JwXQ-rUo

[Chris]

Bill Ryan just posted the following at Project Avalon...






WTF?! :shocked:

I'm not surprised, his and the CDC's big mistake in the beginning was that they refused the German-made diagnostic test kit that everyone else was using and wanted to develop their own "made in America" version, which was supposed to be superior. Except, it turned out to be faulty , the CDC had to recall it and it took them this long to come up with an actually working diagnostic test kit. They are struggling to ramp up production though, so they've probably realised the German medical industry is so far ahead on this that they should just buy the damned thing.

Apparently a billion dollars was offered to this German company for the rights to the vaccine they are developing.

[Aragorn]

I'm not surprised, his and the CDC's big mistake in the beginning was that they refused the German-made diagnostic test kit that everyone else was using and wanted to develop their own "made in America" version, which was supposed to be superior. Except, it turned out to be faulty , the CDC had to recall it and it took them this long to come up with an actually working diagnostic test kit. They are struggling to ramp up production though, so they've probably realised the German medical industry is so far ahead on this that they should just buy the damned thing.

Apparently a billion dollars was offered to this German company for the rights to the vaccine they are developing.

Exclusive rights. That's what freaks me out about this. Is there no end to his madness? First he wants to buy Greenland, and now this. :fpalm:

On a different note, Dutch researchers have isolated an antibody against the coronavirus. That looks promising. :like:

[Chris]

Exclusive rights. That's what freaks me out about this. Is there no end to his madness? First he wants to buy Greenland, and now this. :fpalm:

On a different note, Dutch researchers have isolated an antibody against the coronavirus. That looks promising. :like:

Yes, obviously he and his big pharma buddies want to get rich off the vaccine. But then, that is the entire Raison d'etre of the entire for-profit US healthcare system.

I wouldn't worry about it too much, making a vaccine is the easy part, getting it tested, trialled and approved is much harder and such a working, trialled and tested vaccine is reportedly at least 2 years away.

[Emil El Zapato]

I'll give you a conspiracy theory...The timing for economic meltdowns historically could be enlightening. I challenge anyone to go through history and check when it happens? At the end of Republican rule, almost invariably...

China has allowed workers to return to their jobs...but no supplies to operate as yet.

[Chris]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infection could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical services such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.

It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.

“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

“A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.

“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.

The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.

The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.

However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to function normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone with a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.

The document also states that:

The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.

From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.

Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.

Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.

After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.

There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.

[Emil El Zapato]

First dose to be delivered Monday in clinical trial for potential COVID-19 vaccine

WASHINGTON (FOX 5 DC) - A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a government official.


The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet. The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle, the official said.

Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

Testing will begin with 45 young, healthy volunteers with different doses of shots co-developed by NIH and Moderna Inc. There’s no chance participants could get infected from the shots, because they don’t contain the virus itself. The goal is purely to check that the vaccines show no worrisome side effects, setting the stage for larger tests.

Dozens of research groups around the world are racing to create a vaccine as COVID-19 cases continue to grow. Importantly, they’re pursuing different types of vaccines — shots developed from new technologies that not only are faster to produce than traditional inoculations but might prove more potent. Some researchers even aim for temporary vaccines, such as shots that might guard people’s health a month or two at a time while longer-lasting protection is developed.

For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. The worldwide outbreak has sickened more than 156,000 people and left more than 5,800 dead. The death toll in the United States is more than 50, while infections neared 3,000 across 49 states and the District of Columbia.

The vast majority of people recover. According to the World Health Organization, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three weeks to six weeks to recover.

Its true fatality rate isn’t yet known, but it seems 10 times higher than the flu, which kills hundreds of thousands around the world each year, the United States’ top infectious disease expert told lawmakers last week.

[Chris]

Time to get contrarian.

Everybody has finally realised how serious the situation is and everyone is freaking out. Panic buying, empty streets, the whole lot.

Social distancing is being taken seriously and even here at work serious measures are being taken.

This gives me hope, that the situation will soon be brought under control.

I now think that these measures will work and the peak of the epidemic will pass in the next few weeks, at least in my region.

I must say that Central Europe has taken a much more serious and measured approach than a lot of other places. I'm impressed by the central government response in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia, to a lesser extent, even Hungary.

What I see is that people in this region are a lot more organised and serious about the epidemic than what I see in Italy, France (mass protests? really? Now?) or the UK. The supply situation also seems to be much better than what is reported in the UK.

I hope these aren't famous last words, but I think we will escape the brunt of it here. I'm much less sure about the UK and the US, reports indicate that there are already a lot of sick people who are undeclared and untested.

They've just announced the sealing of the borders here in Hungary as well (except for freight), so it seems the required measures to stop the epidemic are being introduced.

[Emil El Zapato]

well, Chris, so far your calls have been pretty good, so I hope you're right

[Wind]

Well, now the government here decided to close down basically everything, including the borders.

[Chris]

The below article is well worth a read and explains why both the UK and US governments changed their tune on how they were going to respond to the Coronavirus pandemic. Absent extreme Quarantine and social distancing measures, the death toll would be terrifying, running into the millions in the US alone. Even with these measures in place, hospitals will be overwhelmed by mid-April and significant triage (prioritising resources and deciding who lived and who dies, like in wartime) will be necessary. The two included charts are terrifying and makes me glad that we are finally doing something to fight the epidemic.

On a personal note, from tomorrow I am working from home, indefinitely. If the below projections are to be believed, at least for the next few months, maybe even the next couple of years. We will have to change our habits indefinitely I'm afraid.

I used to work from home in my previous job, for more than two years, so I'm used to it, but to be honest, I'd much prefer to work in the office where there is a certain camaderie and banter. But, we all have to do our part.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll

Federal guidelines warned against gatherings of more than 10 people as a London report predicted high fatalities in the U.S. without drastic action.

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said.

The White House guidelines urged Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people. That is a more restrictive stance than recommendations released on Sunday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said that gatherings should be limited to 50.

The White House also recommended that Americans work from home, avoid unnecessary shopping trips and refrain from eating in restaurants. Some states and cities have already imposed stricter measures, including lockdowns and business closings.

Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.


“What had the biggest impact in the model is social distancing, small groups, not going in public in large groups,” Dr. Birx said. “The most important thing was if one person in the household became infected, the whole household self-quarantined for 14 days. Because that stops 100 percent of the transmission outside of the household.”

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/16/us/politics/16virus-projections/16virus-projections-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp

Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.

The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.

“We don’t have a clear exit strategy,” Dr. Ferguson said of the recommended measures. “We’re going to have to suppress this virus — frankly, indefinitely — until we have a vaccine.”

“It’s a difficult position for the world to be in,” he added.

The report, which was not released in a peer-reviewed journal but was authored by 30 scientists on behalf of Imperial College’s coronavirus response team, simulated the role of public health measures aimed at reducing contact.

“The effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Ferguson said the potential health impacts were comparable to the devastating 1918 influenza outbreak, and would “kind of overwhelm health system capacity in any developed country, including the United States,” unless measures to reduce the spread of the virus were taken.

The White House task force did not respond to requests for comment. Officials stressed that the federal government’s restrictive new guidelines would be re-evaluated after 15 days, although they hinted that they were likely to be extended.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/16/us/politics/16virus-projections-03/16virus-projections-03-superJumbo.png?quality=90&auto=webp

The study’s authors said their research made it clear that people in the United States might be advised to continue with draconian restrictions on their daily lives for far longer than Mr. Trump and the task force indicated on Monday.

“The major challenge of suppression,” the British scientists concluded, is the length of time that intensive interventions would be needed, given that “we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.”

The authors said that so-called mitigation policies alone — isolating people suspected of having the virus at home, quarantining their contacts and separating the most vulnerable people from others — might reduce the peak demand on the health care system by two-thirds and deaths by half if applied for three months. But that would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and in health systems “overwhelmed many times over,” they said.

This was why the authors also recommended measures to distance the entire population, such as school closures. Those interventions, they suggested, could be “relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows" and then reintroduced if new infections began growing.

The researchers said that the long-term “social and economic effects” were likely to be “profound,” and that the measures were not guaranteed to succeed and could themselves have “significant impact on health and well-being.”

“No public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time,” they added. “How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.”

[Emil El Zapato]

At this point, things have hit the surreal level...and working on 'apocalyptic'...As someone on the boob tube said today: No one in their lifetimes have experienced anything like this...it's unreal. Trump's election was the indicator that the world was gonna get crazy. Too much demonic influence running loose in the cosmic consciousness.

[Chris]

At this point, things have hit the surreal level...and working on 'apocalyptic'...As someone on the boob tube said today: No one in their lifetimes have experienced anything like this...it's unreal. Trump's election was the indicator that the world was gonna get crazy. Too much demonic influence running loose in the cosmic consciousness.

The crazy thing is, the lead author of the study I posted yesterday, about 2,2 million potential deaths in the US, has just tweeted that he himself now has the symptoms of the coronavirus.

This is absolutely fucking nuts. Mnuchin has predicted a 20 percent unemployment rate pretty soon, that actually seems optimistic. Everything has shut down, except for essential services and is likely to stay shut for several months. How many businesses can afford paying their employees without any revenues coming in. Not many I'd say. Sad to say, but most businesses are going under and that's just the way it is. A wave of bankruptcies will wobble the banking system and cause many banks to go under. Bailouts, soaring benefits bills and crashing revenues will cause many sovereign defaults and currency crises as well.

On the other hand, I still think the infection will burn through the population in a few months and die down by the summer. Things will then slowly get back to normal, but the economic damage will be permanent and we might be facing another Great Depression. Some companies with strong balance sheets will benefit though and will have the market all to themselves when normal operations resume. That is when investment opportunities will present themselves to those few that still have cash lying around. Cash is king in a liquidation crisis like this, even gold, silver and bitcoin are crashing right now.

[Gio]

Will share this here ...

From a young man whom i have much respect for ... (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?110280-COVID-19-Contrarians&p=1340797&viewfull=1#post1340797)

In his words ...

"This is an interview I did two days ago with a renowned virologist, a lovely lady and very caring, and yet the state media in Germany vilifies her for her comments on corona, when all she says is take precautions, but don't put people in chains."

Generation Mensch #5 - Prof. Dr. Karin Mölling (Corona) (ENG SUBS)

(with English subtitles)

Mar 18, 2020

15:00 minutes


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycum0vtVwi4&feature=emb_logo

[Wind]

Too much demonic influence running loose in the cosmic consciousness.

You hit the nail on the head, brother.

This shitshow is just absurd and I don't think we've seen the worst of it yet.

May we pray that in the end this will actually lead to something good.

[Chris]

The pro-Trump pandemic deniers have gone so far off the reservation that even Mike Adams is fed up with them. He actually compares them to flat-earthers and points out that this seems to be a phenomenon that is exclusive to the United States. When Natural News is the voice of reason, you know things are crazy. BTW, I've stopped following the Project Avalon Coronavirus thread, because it is full of comments from such feckin eejits. Honestly, these people are beyond saving and are absolutely impossible to reason with.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-03-17-pro-trump-publishers-and-pundits-go-full-flat-earth-coronavirus-denialism.html

[Dreamtimer]

Thanks for sharing the video from carpo719, Wind. I like this guys common sense. I checked out some of his other videos. It's an interesting mix.


People are over-reacting, after under-reacting. We need to keep a calm head on our shoulders. People are having a hard time coming out of their denial. And it's a shock when they try to.



I'm looking forward to the one you posted, Gio. I believe I recognize that young man from my perusals over yonder...

[Emil El Zapato]

The pro-Trump pandemic deniers have gone so far off the reservation that even Mike Adams is fed up with them. He actually compares them to flat-earthers and points out that this seems to be a phenomenon that is exclusive to the United States. When Natural News is the voice of reason, you know things are crazy. BTW, I've stopped following the Project Avalon Coronavirus thread, because it is full of comments from such feckin eejits. Honestly, these people are beyond saving and are absolutely impossible to reason with.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-03-17-pro-trump-publishers-and-pundits-go-full-flat-earth-coronavirus-denialism.html

I read the article and I simply will not comment...

[Chris]

Continuing with the contrarian theme, I am actually pretty sure now that the current panic over the pandemic, whilst much needed, is a bit too much. It is a sign that people have finally woken up, which they needed to do back in January, but now that the authorities at least are doing what they can to stop the spread, I think we'll be fine. They could have saved many lives if the acted earlier, but the important thing is they eventually got there, even Trump and Boris.

The next couple of months are still going to be very rough, there will be a lot of deaths, widespread panic and economic carnage.

Still, I believe now, based on the evidence coming out of Asia, the strict quarantine and social distancing measures are very effective against slowing down and even stopping the virus and there are several promising drug treatments as well, at least for milder cases. The brunt of it is yet to come, but I believe by summer the worst will be behind us. There will be periodic outbreaks after that, particularly in the winter months, but now, with widespread testing and much vigilance, we will be able to nip localised outbreaks in the bud.

So, just make sure you are prepared to ride out the next few months by staying mostly at home and ordering in as much as you can. The economy will be in the toilet, but there will be plenty of opportunities for investment during the recovery phase.

[Wind]

Thanks for sharing the video from carpo719, Wind. I like this guys common sense.

He's a very sensible guy, I wish more of Americans and people in general were like that! Be sure to watch his latest video too.

The Worst Pandemics in History - What Do They Teach Us?

_uL0ZgV6POc

[Chris]

This is from one of my suppliers in China. It seems the situation there is normalising, but a transport shutdown is coming to the EU. There are already serious disruptions in freight, and passenger traffic has all but stopped, except for evacuations:



Nice to hear from you and thanks for your new orders!

Here, everything is going to be fine, almost 22 days no new cases found in Nanjing city and other cities. In Wuhan city, the new cases is only 5~10 per day since last week, the Coronavirus is not a big problem for us now. Almost all factories are back to work till today and students in some cities have returned back to school since this monday. We will recover the normal life soon by end March, I think.

It is a pity that the Coronavirus is spreading out in most of the world and lots of healthy people died everyday from the news:-( While, it seems now every government realized how dangerous the virus is, even when it outbreak already in China, lots of Chinese dided due to this epidemic. Before, USA government just thought the virus as a "big flu".

When every government take necessary steps to control the Virus, we must be able to defeat it. It is a fact that you can't buy any masks now and also it will last for a long time as all world don't make a sufficient prepare for it. Here, it is also very shortage for masks. By that case, if possible, just try not to go outside and stay at home and try to work at home.

Understand that the whole EU will stop shipping.

[Amanda]

I was looking to find a specific thread about the Corona virus as I have specific information to share. Those of you who know me know that I work on a specific area of Human interest and that has brought me into contact with a lot of People with an amazingly varied skill set. What I share will be concise - so - please ask me questions if I have failed to get the information across in an easy to understand manner.

First: An online friend was in China with family when the virus and media came into contact with each other. First person phone call when they arrived home in America and words similar to this were stated to me: It is being blown out of proportion. My friend mentioned travelling on domestic flights and thus was not just in one area. When back in America the family had to take their own temperature twice daily for two weeks. Yes you read that correctly - they took their own temperature - no government officials or community nurses involved.

Second: A friend who is a medical professional and who works in a large metropolitan hospital, in the capital city of my state in Australia has shared some information. They set up a clinic at the hospital and are swabbing 70 People a day. Let's do the basic mathematics: 70 x 7 = 490 per week. Let's round that up to an even 500. Around 10% are seeing the pathology tests return positive. That means 10% equates to 50 per week. Now factor in that some People are surviving so not everyone who tests positive actually dies. The number 50 can be lowered. That to me does not even come close to the meaning of the word pandemic.



Here is my personal perspective on what is happening. I think those who are unfortunate enough to contract the disease and die, will already have a compromised immune system and according to a doctor I spoke with in recent days, any existing health issues with lungs and heart will make survival of Corona difficult. So if you are in good health and you contract it - chances are your body will have a strong excitotoxicity response and you will be immune for the rest of your life - just as nature intended.


It seems to me there is a big media/government/cabal/illuminati/whatever focus on the movements of People and the economy. It has been mentioned that the elite level paedophilies et cetera are being brought down - my instincts are saying the opposite. I think that while the psyop/distraction event is in play - it is an excellent time to make an escape.



Cash is necessary and all the hype about no more cash is baseless. How many times have I been standing in a line waiting to be served and the person in front of me can't get their card to work? The Manager/Sales Assistant has to end up touching the debit/credit card device or even the card. Two days ago I was in a shop and the Sales Assistant announced to the few of us in line: The EFTPOS machine isn't working so I can only accept cash.


Thanks as always for the the safe place for me to speak without fear.


Much Respect - Amanda

[Amanda]

Just wanted to share a brief item that was on facebook. It is just a copy and paste of some typed words that seem to be concise and informative.



here are a few things about this "Virus" that are very suspect.
1) NOT 1 child under 10 ever caught it (until supposedly 3 days ago).
2) Wuhan was the only city in the world that ever had 100% 5g saturation. Right before "breakout" - China had FORCED Vaccinations!
3) The LARGEST protests in the history of MANKIND happened 3 weeks before the outbreak in China -- Hong Kong / Paris - etc.

MOST IMPORTANTLY. ANYONE BEING EXPOSED TO 5g) 1 pinch of 20 mule team BORAX in 1 qt of water, daily, will help clear your body of Aluminum -- the Worst thing for your body when combating 60GHz Microwaves.
ALSO: For the Corona Virus: It is a DUD. It was a planned Pandemic -- but is far weaker than WHOMEVER RELEASED IT HOPED. To cure: IODINE / Zinc / Vitamin D / Short needle pine bracket fungus / and ACE Inhibitors (BP meds)-- (CoronaV attaches to ACE RECEPTORS in Cardio/Pulmonary System).




The above is a short copy & paste - it looked concise and to the point. It seems to make sense - but - I suppose facebook will censor/fact check it.

Much Respect - Amanda

[Emil El Zapato]

What is 10% of Australia's population?

It appears the situation is a little different from reports from parts of Europe...Children are getting sick, at least younger...50% are between 20-40

[Amanda]

Not A Pretender et al - I did a quick search and found a site that lists all statistics Globally. I jumped to Australia and applied a copy and paste to the appropriate part. While I know I have not answered your question I have provided some information that I thought is valuable.


Of the 565 confirmed cases in Australia, 46 have recovered and 6 have died from COVID-19.

259 cases were considered to be overseas acquired. Most of the overseas cases were acquired in the USA, Iran, Italy and the UK.

72 cases are contacts of previously confirmed cases.

The likely place of exposure for 206 reported cases is under investigation.

The source of infection for 28 cases is currently unknown.

Further information regarding the epidemiology of cases in Australia is provided in the weekly epidemiology reports.



Hopefully this will help. I don't know the current population of Australia but I do know that the virus is only in specific areas - it is not currently being reported as scattered across the country.

Much Respect - Amanda

[Emil El Zapato]

that sounds about right Amanda...

my neighborhood forum in Houston Texas is starting have traffic with people that are being infected...not good...my daughter was quarantined for a few days due to a friend going to the hospital sick...turned out it was Epstein-Barr Virus...a neighborhood hospital worker said they are seeing young people on life support (one of the major hospitals in the Houston area)

[Aragorn]

Just wanted to share a brief item that was on facebook. It is just a copy and paste of some typed words that seem to be concise and informative.



here are a few things about this "Virus" that are very suspect.
1) NOT 1 child under 10 ever caught it (until supposedly 3 days ago).
2) Wuhan was the only city in the world that ever had 100% 5g saturation. Right before "breakout" - China had FORCED Vaccinations!
3) The LARGEST protests in the history of MANKIND happened 3 weeks before the outbreak in China -- Hong Kong / Paris - etc.

MOST IMPORTANTLY. ANYONE BEING EXPOSED TO 5g) 1 pinch of 20 mule team BORAX in 1 qt of water, daily, will help clear your body of Aluminum -- the Worst thing for your body when combating 60GHz Microwaves.
ALSO: For the Corona Virus: It is a DUD. It was a planned Pandemic -- but is far weaker than WHOMEVER RELEASED IT HOPED. To cure: IODINE / Zinc / Vitamin D / Short needle pine bracket fungus / and ACE Inhibitors (BP meds)-- (CoronaV attaches to ACE RECEPTORS in Cardio/Pulmonary System).




The above is a short copy & paste - it looked concise and to the point. It seems to make sense - but - I suppose facebook will censor/fact check it.

Much Respect - Amanda

Amanda, I love you and I'm sorry to have to be so blunt, but you're spreading misinformation now by tooting the horn of the paranoid knee-jerkers. This has nothing to do with 5G ─ there is no 5G in Iran, which is also being hit very hard.

The virus is real, the pandemic is real, and the virus was not man-made ─ as revealed only yesterday in a scientific report from real scientists. The SARS-CoV-2 virus stems from another virus that's found in animals, and there are two possibilities: either the virus mutated inside the animal into a form that could also infect humans, or it already existed in humans before ─ through the consumption of the meat of certain animals, such as bats ─ in an innocuous form that has only recently mutated into a harmful form while already in a human host. Had the virus been engineered, then its backbone RNA would have been much more aggressively tailored from the onset, and that does not appear to be the case. All evidence leads to a virus that evolved naturally. And viruses do mutate all the time.

Everyone who's jerking their knees about this and who's in denial ─ and who is thus ignoring the rules of containment as issued by their government because they think they know better than the scientists ─ is a ticking time bomb for their fellow human beings. This is irresponsible behavior. The only way to combat this, pending the arrival of a vaccine or another remedy, is to avoid further spreading of the disease by self-isolating.

Just because the virus doesn't have a 100% mortality rate doesn't mean that it's harmless. People do die from it, and unlike with the flu, the SARS-CoV-2 virus can remain active while floating on aerosol for up to three hours. In other words, it doesn't need to be directly transferred from one person to the next, because it's airborne. If a person has it and coughs, and then leaves the room, and then one hour later you walk in, you can become infected as well. And that is not the case with the flu.



P.S.: I'm a scientist. I know what I'm talking about. :wry:

[Amanda]

Aragorn - I know you love me. We are all trying to get our heads around what is happening. We all live in different parts of the world and we all have an individual skill set. You took one part of the information above as literal - the information stated that Wuhan had 100% saturation of 5G. The reference to 5G does not necessarily apply to all locations. Iran may have a larger outbreak than elsewhere due to tourists or locals having contact with someone who was infected by a traveller.

I am not a knee jerk reaction person - I am looking at what is available via the media but I am also listening to my friends - with whom I have first person conversations. In the post above - my friend who was in China at the time - is a very well educated scientist. Staying away from others is a choice - let's see who makes that choice.

I spoke with a doctor just two days ago and he confirmed that one of the real issues is that patients with the virus need intensive care. Patients who have the virus cannot be placed in the same intensive ward as people who are already receiving intensive care for say lung and heart issues. That is apparently what is happening in Italy. There are only a certain number of beds and patients who have the virus have to be cared for somewhere and it cannot be the intensive care ward. Still on Italy - large Italian community where I live and apparently the lockdowns are in the northern part of the country and not the southern.

As for the virus being man made or transferred via the ingestion of animals or animal products. Well - I will admit to being on the fence regarding that aspect. Humans have been eating animals and animal products for thousands of years. Scientists have worked on secret projects with the government and military for a long time as well.

The facts of which I am aware are these; People are testing positive so we know the virus itself is real. Not all People who test positive die - so we know it is not necessarily fatal. Sadly those who die had an existing health issue. Here's an interesting fact - comes from my friend who is a medical professional. A female colleague got tested with no symptoms at all (triage includes the testing of those who work in medical and care positions) yet husband and son both tested positive.

Here's something I will share but I will keep it vague to protect identities. Let's say I want to be tested. I attend a hospital with a clinic set up for the specific purpose of testing for the virus. I have the medical professional take my swab. I go home. It takes four days for the pathology. I could be positive and I could have infected People just going home. I did the right thing and got tested. I go home with the intention of staying home. Wrap your head around that People.

So please tell me again how staying home helps protect others? If the government was serious - they would have medical teams going to the homes of those who have travelled et cetera. Home delivery of essentials could be arranged with care. Anyone entering any country via airports seaports or any other method should go directly to a quarantine area to be tested and cared for - for the two week required timeframe.

At this point whether the virus is man made or naturally occurring is not the point - well not to me. Just look at the example I provided - I am still shaking my head at that one. Even when you attend a hospital to do the right thing - you can still infect People on your journey home - while you wait for four days.

Whatever this is - I am saddened by the fact People will die. I am further saddened by the fact that all the efforts of all the People who are working to bring People together is now being bombarded. Feels like chaos. As I sometimes say: Someone knows the truth - they always do.


Thank you again for giving me a safe place to speak freely and to be part of a community.


Much Respect - Amanda

[Aragorn]

Aragorn - I know you love me. We are all trying to get our heads around what is happening. We all live in different parts of the world and we all have an individual skill set.

Thank you for taking my reprimand so graciously, Amanda. I didn't mean to come down so hard on you personally, but I did indeed respond to the information you quoted. There is a lot of misinformation going round about this pandemic right now ─ some of it deliberate, by sick pranksters and hoaxers who enjoy creating even more of a panic than there already is, and some by people who are simply in denial and who see an "NWO conspiracy" in it all.

I will tell you what I believe, though. I believe that it could be an intentional crisis brought about by life itself; a culling, in retaliation ─ or as a remedy against ─ all of the pollution and environmental disruption that has been taking place. I'm not religious so I'm not going to invoke "God's Wrath" on this, but I do believe that the universe is a sentient organism, and that life itself may have a sentience outside of the collective consciousness on this planet ─ which, if I'm not mistaken, is more or less also what Buddhists believe.


I spoke with a doctor just two days ago and he confirmed that one of the real issues is that patients with the virus need intensive care. Patients who have the virus cannot be placed in the same intensive ward as people who are already receiving intensive care for say lung and heart issues. That is apparently what is happening in Italy. There are only a certain number of beds and patients who have the virus have to be cared for somewhere and it cannot be the intensive care ward.

We're starting to get there here in Belgium as well. It really is a crisis that humanity, in all its complacency, was not prepared for. And that's the real hazard. Because viruses come and go, as do other calamities. But it's whether we can deal with it that will determine the outcome.

Humanity and its intelligence are being put to the test right now, and although I have good hopes on how it will evolve here in Europe, there are many other parts of the world where the governments are not prepared. The USA and the UK are only two such countries, and once things start taking on the same proportions there as they have here in Europe, the toll will be terrible.


As for the virus being man made or transferred via the ingestion of animals or animal products. Well - I will admit to being on the fence regarding that aspect. Humans have been eating animals and animal products for thousands of years. Scientists have worked on secret projects with the government and military for a long time as well.

That's why a new team of scientists ─ and get this: they are US Americans ─ have now been thoroughly investigating where this virus may have come from, and their report was published in a scientific paper only yesterday ─ actually, the day before yesterday as I'm writing this. And it is a naturally evolved virus. Either it found a way to infect a human host, or it was already dwelling in humans but unable to infect them until it mutated. And there are two strains already now that I know of. Let's hope there won't be any more strains in the future.


If the government was serious - they would have medical teams going to the homes of those who have travelled et cetera.

The problem is that they don't have the manpower for that, and that contrary to what everyone in this community seems to believe, the governments by far know a lot less about your coming and going than the private corporations do, because it's the private corporations ─ Google, Facebook, Amazon, et al ─ that are actively spying on us every day.


Home delivery of essentials could be arranged with care. Anyone entering any country via airports seaports or any other method should go directly to a quarantine area to be tested and cared for - for the two week required timeframe.

Well, in Europe, that will now more or less be the case for those who are still flying, because the European Union has now closed its outer borders, and many countries are already in lockdown ─ Belgium included. So there will still be air travel within the European Union, but it's only allowed for essential things anymore. Everyone else is ordered to stay at home.


At this point whether the virus is man made or naturally occurring is not the point - well not to me. Just look at the example I provided - I am still shaking my head at that one. Even when you attend a hospital to do the right thing - you can still infect People on your journey home - while you wait for four days.

Incubation can vary from as short as one day up to two weeks. And the problem is that the reported cases are only those who've been tested and found positive. There are many, many more people ─ and the governments know this ─ who might be infected but who have so far not been tested yet because they aren't showing any symptoms, or who may even have recovered from it on their own, thinking they only had a cold or a flu.

It is very hard to gain complete control of this. And this is why we have to stay at home. It spreads out the rate of infection over a longer time, as opposed to concentrating the infections over a short time span and not being able to cope with it from the logistics and medical point of view.


Whatever this is - I am saddened by the fact People will die. I am further saddened by the fact that all the efforts of all the People who are working to bring People together is now being bombarded.

Well, as I wrote on the Chris Thomas thread only a few days ago, this crisis is definitely going to reshape society. For starters, a lot of people are now working from home, whereas they used to work at an office. And so once this thing has blown over, those people are not likely to want to return to working in an office anymore, sitting in their lifeless cubicle. They're going to want to continue working from home, which apparently is now suddenly a viable option in the eyes of the employers. As a result, there will be far less traffic on the roads. Fewer traffic accidents and traffic deaths, less pollution, and perhaps less of an impact on the climate.

Non-essential shops ─ i.e. anything that doesn't sell food (for humans and animals) and that doesn't provide any essential services, like the pharmacies ─ are closed. This means a lot of these shops and other small businesses are bound to go bankrupt before the end of this crisis. Will the government bail them out the way they've bailed out the banks a few years ago? It is possible, but it'll depend from government to government, and from sector to sector. Over here, the bars, restaurants and discotheques were the first to be ordered to close, and the government promised them a reduction in taxes in return as compensation. But will the government be able to continue doing that? It'll remain to be seen.

Another option would be that the banks start buying up all the bankrupt shops and thus effectively become the controllers of the entire economy. And banks being banks, they will continue competing with one another and buying out their competitors, until in the end you're left with a monopoly that effectively owns all private property. So then you get corporate fascism.

Whatever it's all going to lead to, society will never be the same again after this crisis. A lot has now been forced into a different mode of operation to what it used to be, and I doubt whether they will (be able to) return to their old modus operandi again after the crisis.

All we can do is hope that it'll all turn out for the better. Whether it will or not remains to be seen. But there's always hope. :unsure:

[Aianawa]

DW's thoughts and feelings >


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om0afwpTwjA

[Amanda]

Aianawa - Long video so I will get to it when I can focus for two hours. Thank You.


Aragorn (et al) - I could not help but think of a passage from a book.

Your words:
Another option is that the banks start buying up all the bankrupt shops and thus effectively become the controllers of the entire economy. And banks being banks, they will continue competing with one another and buying out their competitors, until in the end you're left with a monopoly that effectively owns all private property. So then you get corporate fascism.


As soon as I read through your response and read the above lines - it hit me like a ton of bricks. Page xx in the introduction:

From the book:
...the workplace
the government will become the owner of all of the factors of production; the private ownership of property will be outlawed ....


The book I purchased is in its twenty seventh print run - so that's a lot of People reading this book. Full reference:The New World Order by A. Ralph Jepperson, Publius Press, Arizona 2017.


That is why I am sitting on the fence about from where it emanated. Science is controlled by money as is the medical industry. I want to believe you when you state it is a natural manifestation/evolutionary based virus - but - I cannot commit to one or the other. I question everything. This could very well be our turning point - where we all come together and share our skills and Spirit with each other to Survive - or - it could be an elaborate psy op to throw People off centre.

I know People are sick and I know People have died and more will no doubt die before this is done and dusted. Wars are fought on many fronts and they rarely do anything more than sacrifice innocent People and then support industry and the economy as those who are left rebuild what was destroyed.

I will finish this post on a positive note. There is a thread on faceache for the People who live in my town. ANZAC (Australian and New Zealand Armed Corp) Day is approaching and public gatherings are being cancelled. A local musician who has played the Last Post for many years offered to play from his front yard. Normally it is played at sunrise. (I'm getting chills and goosebumps as I write). The musician asked whether People would mind him playing at 6am or later at 9am. Well the response was overwhelming - don't worry about the whingers - just play at 6am and we will all be in our front yards. He has offered to play at both 6am and 9am. See - the Human Spirit and the Divergent Thinkers will always find a way through the chaos.

Much Respect - Amanda

[Chris]

Thanks guys, some very important points were made in the previous posts, it is important to keep the discussion going.

A couple of thoughts on some of the issues that were brought up:

- 5G - This has been a meme on the far-right and particularly on Project Avalon lately, linking the outbreak to the rollout of 5G in Wuhan etc... As far as I can tell, and I'm no scientist, there is no basis for linking the two phenomena and Aragorn has mentioned some of the reasons why. The most we can state with some certainty is that electromagnetic radiation in general can be disruptive to some people, that are sensitive to it, but it does not seem to have a widespread effect on the general population. I have been at times highly sensitive to electromagnetic effects, especially right after I went through a Kundalini awakening, so I know it is real, but I see no evidence that it is connected to this viral pandemic.

- The Bioweapon thing.
At this point I just don't know, but I stopped focusing on that aspect a while ago. I would say the circumstances of how this virus got into the human population are highly suspicious, but there does not seem to be clear evidence either way. This may remain a mystery forever and I think we should focus on more important issues, like mitigation.

- The fact, that life will change forever.
Oh yeah and Aragorn brought up some important points. It is grotesque that people (Americans in particular) spend a good chunk of their lives hauling their asses around in three and a half tons of sheet metal taking up the same space as a 12-seater bus would, burning fossil fuels and polluting the very air they breathe. This really has to stop, commuting, especially by gas-guzzling truck is complete insanity. I expect a lot more people will be working from home or riding electric scooters to work when needed, only using big vehicles (perhaps rented and not owned) when they have to make a road trip. For most people that's a couple of times a year and in the meanwhile, they can telecommute, ride an e-scooter or public transit (though not now obviousy) and get their groceries delivered. We're going to save so much energy with this, no wonder oil markets are crashing, they've suddenly seen their (lack of) future ahead and need to sell as much oil as they possible can, before demand collapses even more.

- Our future.
I always go by the data and the facts, if they are available. At the start of the pandemic, things were looking very bleak indeed. R0 values of up to 12 in South Korea, credible reports of death rates as high as 17 percent in Wuhan, that sort of thing. Authorities in the West just weren't taking this seriously and it looked like the pandemic was unstoppable and would exterminate a good chunk of the human population, collapsing society in the process. At that point, that was a reasonable assumption to make. However, facts and data have changed, especially as regards what is coming out of Asia, so there is reason to be more optimistic and we now have several promising drug treatments that may work, as well as effective social distancing and quarantine measures. Don't get me wrong, this thing is still deadly and millions may yet die, but at least we now know that we can stop this or at least bring it under control, probably by the end of June.

- Conclusions:
So yeah, keep your asses home, wear masks when in public, although it's best to get everything delivered and go for walks in nature where no one's around if you can. You'll be fine, if you take the necessary precautions.

[Dreamtimer]

They seem to be doing well. Nice place, nice furniture. Nice place to be quarantined.

[Aragorn]

Aragorn (et al) - I could not help but think of a passage from a book.

Your words:
Another option is that the banks start buying up all the bankrupt shops and thus effectively become the controllers of the entire economy. And banks being banks, they will continue competing with one another and buying out their competitors, until in the end you're left with a monopoly that effectively owns all private property. So then you get corporate fascism.


As soon as I read through your response and read the above lines - it hit me like a ton of bricks. Page xx in the introduction:

From the book:
...the workplace
the government will become the owner of all of the factors of production; the private ownership of property will be outlawed ....

[...]

Well if the government owns everything, then that's communism. But if a private corporation ─ or plural: private corporations, at least, until the monopoly arises ─ owns everything, then that's fascism.

Most people think that fascism equates to Nazism, but that would be a mistake. Nazism was only one form of fascism, and was specifically focused on ethnic purification. Mussolini's fascism also knew racism, but it was quite different. The United States of America are a de facto fascist regime, given that not only the whole of society but even the two official political parties are entirely controlled by the corporate world.

Europe is very corporate as well, but the main difference with the USA is that the European Union does have barriers in place to break the power of the corporations if it gets too big. So the European Union is actually more of a social-liberal construct ─ I won't go so far as to say "social democracy", because the word "democracy" does not apply. The European Union is a bureaucratic monstrosity in which the people themselves have very little say.


P.S.: Don't bother with the David Wilcock video. Wilcock has already long lost his credibility. ;)

[Fred Steeves]

Oh yeah and Aragorn brought up some important points. It is grotesque that people (Americans in particular) spend a good chunk of their lives hauling their asses around in three and a half tons of sheet metal taking up the same space as a 12-seater bus would, burning fossil fuels and polluting the very air they breathe. This really has to stop, commuting, especially by gas-guzzling truck is complete insanity. I expect a lot more people will be working from home or riding electric scooters to work when needed, only using big vehicles (perhaps rented and not owned) when they have to make a road trip.

Now now Chris, tell that to the guys like me whose truck is but one of the tools they need daily to make a living.

It’s funny you mention this because I was just commenting to my wife the other day on our way back to the old house we are refurbishing with about 2,000 pounds of lumber in the bed, that a lot of people these days think I shouldn’t even be allowed to have a truck. It’s not even all that often I have to get a load that big, but it is quite often I have to quick run and get a sheet of plywood, maybe a few 2x4 studs, or whatever.

You would have me try and load this stuff on a scooter?

[Chris]

Now now Chris, tell that to the guys like me whose truck is but one of the tools they need daily to make a living.

It’s funny you mention this because I was just commenting to my wife the other day on our way back to the old house we are refurbishing with about 2,000 pounds of lumber in the bed, that a lot of people these days think I shouldn’t even be allowed to have a truck. It’s not even all that often I have to get a load that big, but it is quite often I have to quick run and get a sheet of plywood, maybe a few 2x4 studs, or whatever.

You would have me try and load this stuff on a scooter?

You know very well that you're not the average truck user. Most people buy them as status symbols, because they like the fact that they're big, rugged and "manly". Yet, look at your average traffic jam in a big city and it is full of trucks with a single passenger in it and no cargo. Most of those people could get around just as well with something smaller or even a scooter. Traffic jams would disappear in an instant. It is because people are greedy and want to take up as much space for themselves as they possibly can. The situation in LA is particularly baffling. Everybody constantly complains about traffic jams, yet if half the people stuck in it would switch to scooters, there would be none to speak of. It's not like the weather doesn't allow for it either...

[Aragorn]

You know very well that you're not the average truck user. Most people buy them as status symbols, because they like the fact that they're big, rugged and "manly". Yet, look at your average traffic jam in a big city and it is full of trucks with a single passenger in it and no cargo. Most of those people could get around just as well with something smaller or even a scooter. Traffic jams would disappear in an instant. It is because people are greedy and want to take up as much space for themselves as they possibly can. The situation in LA is particularly baffling. Everybody constantly complains about traffic jams, yet if half the people stuck in it would switch to scooters, there would be none to speak of. It's not like the weather doesn't allow for it either...

Those pickup trucks are gaining popularity here in Europe as well. Just in case a regular SUV isn't intimidating enough yet. ;)

[Dreamtimer]

Trucks are for what you're using them for, Fred. Not for showing off with spray on mud and never a load to tow or carry.

I know folks who drove them just to have them and thumb their noses at care for the environment, which is not even a reason.

My husband got a truck, but it has the same mileage as my car which is about twice the gas guzzlers. Eventually we'll likely not even have cars that use gas.

[Aragorn]

I just got back from the supermarket. It was surreal. Not only is all of the toilet paper gone ─ and the staff put up a sign that said that only one pack per customer would be allowed ─ but also almost all of the food.

Some of the staff were wearing masks and/or rubber gloves. There was one customer ─ a really big guy ─ who was wearing one of those expensive specialized masks. I have no idea where he got that, because they're very hard to come by, even for medical professionals. And he was walking around like he was enjoying his weird appearance. At the same time, there were several people ─ both customers and staff ─ who didn't care to obey the "social distance" of 1.5 meter. A couple of people passed me by shoulder to shoulder without any consideration whatsoever.

Surreal. Simply surreal. :belief:

[Emil El Zapato]

My daughter was quarantined for a few days due to her friend being sick but with Epstein-Barr virus...she went back to work despite my trying to talk her out of it...I told her not to worry about expenses as I would take care of them...didn't matter. I told her to take extreme precautions...she works at Starbucks's and they still have open entrances in their Houston stores...most employees are worried about income and I explained to her that shouldn't concern her.

I haven't owned a 'big' auto since I was divorced with 2 kids...I always go for gas economy, will buy an electric one when and if it is ever economically feasible. I have considered a motorcycle for a few years but those are deathtraps on Houston freeways...If we could get people to ride scooters, i'd get me a hog and run over their asses... :)




What's with the political poopoo...