View Full Version : The coming--or not--"mini ice age" as a Fermi Problem

3rd February 2018, 16:05
This is for the math folk.

In his excellent book Physics of Societal Issues: Calculations on National Security, Environment, and Energy, physicist David Hafemeister says that he wants to teach his students to think like the great Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi. That sounds like a worthy goal, but why Fermi in particular? The answer to that question has two parts.

First, the main premise of Hafemeister’s book is that societal issues should whenever possible be quantified before attempting to formulate possible solutions. Second, a corollary to that premise is that the best way to start the quantification process is to frame the issue as a Fermi problem. But what exactly is a Fermi problem?

The societal issue that will be framed as a Fermi problem is the periodically and recently reported prediction that Earth is headed for a mini ice age in a decade or so, due to an unusually large reduction in the Sun’s energy output around that time. See for example environmental scientist Dana Nuccitelli’s informative article "The 'imminent mini ice age' myth is back, and it's still wrong"

Agricultural scientist Sou, the keeper of the valuable HotWhopper website, did us a considerable favor when she transcribed[4] Radio National New Zealand’s 13 July 2015 interview of Professor Zharkova.[5] Professor Zharkova seemingly just wanted to talk about her solar research, but was repeatedly pressed by the interviewer to opine on what her research meant for human-caused climate change. After demurring several times on the grounds that she was a solar physicist, not a climatologist, she finally ventured a guess. Here is a key quote of Professor Zharkova from the RNZ interview:

… the solar irradiance which comes to the earth will drop to the level that say like the Maunder Minima in 1645-1700, which was about 3 W/m2 reduced irradiance from the sun.

And here is another:

So it will be temperature less irradiance by 3 W/m2 which gives you a decrease of the temperature probably a couple of degrees. I don't know umm.

As it turns out, when it comes to Earth’s surface temperature, Professor Zharkova really doesn’t know, since as we shall see her guess is too big by an order of magnitude, according to those who do know; we are however prepared to accept her figure for the drop in solar irradiance, since that is her field of expertise.

(Note: The Maunder Minimum[6] contributed to, but was neither the initiator nor the sole cause of the so-called Little Ice Age.[7][8])

Equipped with Professor Zharkova’s estimate for the drop in solar irradiance, we are now ready to set up the Fermi problem, or actually two Fermi problems, to boost confidence in the answers.

The first model we shall use is the simple n-layer model of the atmosphere.

In this model, the formula for the average surface temperature T (in units of K = kelvins) of the Earth is:[10]

T = [(n + 1)S (1 - α )/(4σ )]¼ (1)

The quantities appearing in the RHS (right-hand side) of Eqn. (1) are

n = number of atmospheric layers
S = solar constant (in units of W/m2 = watts per square meter)[12]
α = Earth’s albedo (reflectivity to solar radiation)[13]
σ = Stefan–Boltzmann constant = 5.67X10-8 (W/m2)/K4 (K = kelvin = unit of absolute temperature)[14]
As we saw above, according to Professor Zharkova the decrement ΔS in the solar constant S will be 3 W/m2. Now it might be supposed that in order to plug that value into Eqn. (1) to estimate the decrement ΔT in the average surface temperature T we would need to know the putative number of layers n in Earth’s atmosphere; however, that is not the case.

Instead we proceed by defining the sensitivity of T to S as the ratio of the relative change in T to the relative change in S:

Sensitivity = (ΔT/T )/(ΔS/S) (2)

Applying Eqn. (2) to Eqn. (3) (this step requires elementary differential calculus) we find that:

Sensitivity = ¼

This is a very fortunate result since it means that the sensitivity is independent of the value of n.

We can now calculate the value of ΔT as follows:

ΔT = Sensitivity×(T/S )×ΔS = ¼×(288/1360)×(-3) = -0.16 °C

Here we have made use of the following facts[10]

T = 288 K (= 15 °C, just so you know)
S =1360 W/m2 = present value of the solar constant
The Kelvin and Celsius temperature scales use degrees of the same size
But the above value for ΔT doesn't take into account the fast climate feedbacks (i.e., the feedbacks that operate on the century timescale).[10][15] The rule of thumb is that the feedbacks roughly double the effect, so we have:

ΔT ≈ -0.3 °C with feedbacks (retaining only one significant figure)

This value is indeed an order of magnitude lower than Professor Zharkova’s “couple of degrees.”

The second model we use is based on the simplified equations of the WGI (Working Group I) contribution to TAR (Third Assessment Report) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which is available both in book form[16] and as a PDF file.[17] The model we need consists of Eqn. (6.1) on p. 354 of TAR WGI:

ΔT = 0.5 ΔF TAR WGI (6.1)

The quantity ΔF in the RHS of the above equation is the change in the radiative forcing F and in this case is the same as the decrement in the solar constant ΔS but divided by 4 to account for the curvature of the Earth’s surface.[10] We therefore calculate as follows:

ΔT = 0.5×(-3)/4 ≈ -0.4 °C (again retaining only one significant figure)

This time we don’t need to double the result because the TAR Eqn. (6.1) already has the effects of the fast climate feedbacks built into it.

How do these solutions to the Fermi problems compare with the numbers obtained by actual climate scientists using more sophisticated approaches? We return to the article by Dana Nuccitelli for an answer:[3]

The most important takeaway point is that the scientific research is clear – were one to occur, a grand solar minimum would temporarily reduce global temperatures by less than 0.3°C...
Agreement is good!

When we combine these results with the following facts[10]

1 °C of warming has already taken place since the advent of the Industrial revolution
There is additional committed warming in the pipeline due to the high thermal inertia of the climate system
The stock of CO2 in the atmosphere is still going up
CO2 once added to the atmosphere stays there for centuries to millennia, whereas
A solar cycle only lasts for about a decade

3rd February 2018, 20:34
The mini ice age is starting in the 2020's, it will culminate in the 2030's and if history repeats itself, many will die directly or indirectly from reasons related to it. If we are prepared and more wise this time around, we will get through it with some relatively minor bruises. I don't have much if any faith in our incompetent leaders, but I still don't see the future as necessarily grim even though I know how humans can be in their cruelty and selfishness. Either our species will come together through the catastrophe or kill each others in wars which will ensue from it.

Only time will show what will happen. Even if man has abanoned God in his arrogance, God hasn't abandoned us.

3rd February 2018, 21:47
Unfortunately, the science estimates that it won't, in fact, occur...I guess that's not a surprise but if it does...hallelujah because it would reduce the impact of warming, if only for a little while.

It is a very good point about 'quantification' because it is the lack of consideration for such an important factor that begins many senseless arguments that propagate up and down from the top echelons to us little people.

Dumpster Diver
3rd February 2018, 22:04
From my research:

The sun has gone from a G star (yellow) to an F (white):


...and is now hotter. Also, we have entered a hotter region of space. All the planets have shown signs of getting hotter, Earth has had a massive amount of chemtrailing (sprayed aerosols) to reflect as much sun energy back into space as possible by the deep state to perpetuate as close to normal temperatures, BUT we can see the permafrost melting in many locations.

Sorry, no ice age coming, but a pole shift and increasing chaotic sun energy with many more Coronal Mass Ejections in our near future.

3rd February 2018, 22:35
Ah, still buying the old global warming lie? Well, let's hope it gets warmer, because I don't like cold. Especially freezing to death.


enjoy being
3rd February 2018, 22:39
*Skips past all the equations and stuff* :spinning:

One of them other folk who said something about 'pole reversal', might have been Braden in the 90's.. but keep thinking it was someone else... not Nassim, but maybe too. gee. not that it matters..

One of'em speaking about the action of a pole shift where the magnetism of the spin and pole is a bit like the mechanics of a magnetic storage device? Interrelated were accounts of the Hopi and such commenting on 3 days of static night (or day), and then recommencement where the sun then tracked across the sky in the opposite direction.
The point was that this action could maybe have a reset effect, a hard drive wiping effect within things, including beings. Maybe the source of the human amnesia.

3rd February 2018, 23:02
Good idea!

3rd February 2018, 23:45
Ah, still buying the old global warming lie? Well, let's hope it gets warmer, because I don't like cold. Especially freezing to death.


Global Warming is an article of faith for the clueless and intellect challenged. Problem is, the challenged are incapable of knowing their limits. They preen and strut like emperors with no clothes believing they are well covered. "Send In The Clowns" is the theme song for Global Warming and the shoddy globalist plans to deceive.

enjoy being
4th February 2018, 00:13
Good idea!

I expect it must be hilarious watching from the outside, as the fish examine the glass with wonder and tell fables upon the murky distortions they try to make out beyond it. :eek:

Dumpster Diver
4th February 2018, 01:00
Well, I believe the entire solar system is warming (and thusly earth) so it is not human carbon dioxide emission per Al Gore and his fellow reptiles.

I started down the New Maunder Minimum path about 10 years ago and once felt a cold spell was on the horizon as well, but, unfortunately it is much more complicated than that.

4th February 2018, 02:36
well since emissions ain't no thing...I think I'll go out a buy me a 1957 Batmobile..

4th February 2018, 11:34
Emissions still pollute the air which can still make us sick, global warming or no. (I know you know that)

I'm most fond of the idea that the whole solar system is lighting up.

As far as I know, earth has had a pretty steady stream of warming trends followed by cooling and the only question is really when does the next changeover happen?

Dumpster Diver
4th February 2018, 12:55
Yes, please understand that pollution of every type is a massive problem. CO2 is the head fake the deep state uses as a cover for the sun heating up.

4th February 2018, 13:19
Yes, please understand that pollution of every type is a massive problem. CO2 is the head fake the deep state uses as a cover for the sun heating up.

The myth that carbon dioxide emissions would be the cause of climate change is nothing other than an economically and politically exploitable guilt trip. Humans and vertebrate animals exhale carbon dioxide. Therefore, putting the blame for climate change on carbon dioxide emissions allows them to...

further curtail our liberties;
instate a carbon tax; and
trade carbon credits with countries whose carbon dioxide emissions stay below the legally established threshold.

The latter is of course just another way to shuffle the money around. Because in the end, money is all that matters to a politician. Well, money and fame.

First of all, carbon dioxide may indeed be a greenhouse gas, but the total amount of carbon dioxide makes up for only 0.04% of the atmosphere, while water vapor, which is also a greenhouse gas, is present in far greater quantities.

Secondly, if they were so concerned with an increase in carbon dioxide, then all they'd have to do is stop cutting down the rainforest and stop the proliferation of more polluting industry, because plants absorb carbon dioxide and release pure oxygen as part of their photosynthesis process. It's the perfect symbiosis between plant and vertebrate. We produce what they need, and they produce what we need.

In addition to that, the junk that they're spraying by way of their chemtrails and which is supposed to reflect the sunlight back into space, is eventually going to have to come down again. And it does, and then it pollutes the soil and the water — both the water we drink and the water that fish swim in. The result is poisoned water, poisoned soil, poisoned vegetables, and lots of dead fish. They're probably killing off more lifeforms that way than the amount of species that would supposedly vanish when Earth's climate gets too hot.

Lastly, the dinosaurs ruled the Earth for approximately 165 million years. In that time, Earth has passed through the galactic equator thousands of times, and there were many temperature variations. Apparently it didn't kill the dinosaurs, and even though it is said that they eventually became extinct because of a meteor impact in Mexico, there is ample zoological evidence that dinosaurs have simply evolved into birds.

Life will adapt. It always has. It is incredibly arrogant — and stupid — to assume that mankind is the master and ruler of life on this planet, not to mention that they're willfully ignoring the warming of all other celestial bodies in the solar system.

4th February 2018, 15:17
One has to take a close look at the numbers. Frankly, I read a series of articles concerning the 'state of truth' in current society and while I was put off by the general dismissal of certain 'conspiracy theories' it did examine the numbers of global warming. Most counter-arguments to the factors leading to warming are incomplete in their analysis of what, why, and when. A good example is the analysis that Dreamtimer put up in the OP.

Another example is the general warming of the Solar System. I, for one, have been debating with myself for quite some time how that impacts Earth's temperatures and warming. It turns out scientists have 'included' that factor into the math and it is not a mathematically significant contributor any way.

4th February 2018, 15:36
Ah, still buying the old global warming lie? Well, let's hope it gets warmer, because I don't like cold. Especially freezing to death.


Here's the thing, this guy sounds like he knows what he's talking about but the 'science' questions he raises are not in debate, so I do wonder where the 'debate' is taking place that he cites. C02 is a single factor, sort of a focal point, but not the entire chemical formula. I could get the numbers but sadly, I am lacking the motivation.

Weather anomalies are 'expected' and part and parcel of 'CLIMATE' change. If one conflates the two concepts they are making a mistake. I wonder why he is doing this?

4th February 2018, 18:49
Trust me, he knows what he is talking about and he is not the only one. There are many more competent people talking about the subject too.

The climate change is just another bs title made by the ms scientists and news outlet spin doctors. The climate is always changing and always will be changing, no matter if this planet has humans or not. Our Sun is almost the sole driver of our climate, the mainstream science arrogantly denies this. A grand solar minimum has already began and our Sun is emitting less and less solar irradiance which has major effects on our weather. Even a slight change in it makes this planet much cooler. When the sun isn't producing enough potent solar flares cosmic rays will start to flood as they already have. Cosmic rays are known to cause clouds and cloud covers, which in order blocks the sunlight. It is also known that volcanoes become activated during these times and they will produce ash to the atmosphere which too blocks heat from the sunlight.

Some places are getting warmer, yes... For now. During the last mini ace some deserts were actually places filled with plants and life. So it's not like the whole Earth would freeze over, thankfully. Everything is cyclical.


4th February 2018, 18:50
Thanks, Wind. You're a cool breeze that's welcome in the winter. ;)

4th February 2018, 19:35
Much obliged. Some have thought that I can be cold like wind during the winter, but that's not true. Actually I'm quite gentle and warm.

Dumpster Diver
4th February 2018, 20:12
Actually, I hope Wind is right and my research is wrong. My biggest problem is the numbers are there; I’m up to a 90%+ chance of at least one kill-shot solar flash in the next 2-6 years.

I hate rooting for something that has only ~10% chance of occurring...:fpalm:

4th February 2018, 21:19
Big solar flares are known to occur during solar minimums, but 10 % might be more close to it indeed. That might be too high of a number too. If we get even one big enough flare headed towards us, then back to 18th century we go. That of course would kill not only millions, but perhaps billions. Humans are suprisingly dependant on electricity and less surprisingly so are nucler plants too. I'm not concerned about that nor I am worried about the coming major weather changes. There's still some time left, there's still room for miracles too. We'll get through, somehow.


Dumpster Diver
4th February 2018, 21:56
According to Ben Davidson, we "just missed" recieving two killshots this past summer (northern hemisphere). One pointed at Mars, and the other in another direction. A few years ago, we had one other. His "earth facing quiet" will not protect us all the time.

4th February 2018, 23:59
I've witnessed those recent killshots. I don't think it's an accident that they're missing Earth.

Dumpster Diver
5th February 2018, 00:36
I've witnessed those recent killshots. I don't think it's an accident that they're missing Earth.

...yup, for now. CG says the “shields” are being removed.

...that’s why I live in a bunkered house.

5th February 2018, 01:01
I hope you know who Corey Goode really is. :fpalm:

5th February 2018, 01:45
The spheres have left, so I hear. The cause of the similar earth facing quiet observed during the Maunder Minimum is not known...I have a feeling it wasn't spheres.

Dumpster Diver
5th February 2018, 04:14
I hope you know who Corey Goode really is. :fpalm:

Blue Chicken Corey? Yup. But just because you and I don’t care for him, does not make him wrong on this point.

5th February 2018, 07:37
I feel we all are getting wiser, yes ?

Dumpster Diver
5th February 2018, 10:28
I feel we all are getting wiser, yes ?

If “getting wiser” means getting slapped by new facts that you don’t care for all the time, then yes.

15th February 2018, 18:57
This is not about Fermi but is about Grand Solar Minimum and the weakening shield.


25th January 2019, 10:38
Here's a video discussing Zharkova's work.


30th January 2019, 01:11
They blame this on the "globul warming" too.


30th January 2019, 12:47
What makes sense to me is something some people have been saying for quite a while now. Climate change means climate upheaval. The warming has a lot of associated concerns but it's only one of the symptoms. The other symptoms are unusual, weird and severe weather, unusual temperatures both warm and cold, crazy historic storms, etc.

These are all happening.

Is it the sun? Is it happening throughout the solar system?

One thing I'm pretty sure of is that it's part of a cycle that recurs. It's certainly possible that we effect it with all of the carbon we put out there. The ocean has just about reached saturation which means trouble for coral and the emergence of lots of jellyfish.

But it's the weather extremes which will cause us the most trouble.

That, and the demise of insects.

May the mushroom mycelium bring healing to us all!

30th January 2019, 13:42
Is it the sun?

Yes and that is the answer to everything.

30th January 2019, 20:05
Is it the sun?

Yes and that is the answer to everything.

I'd like to put a bit of a nuance on that. ;)

Yes, for most part it is the sun that's responsible ─ albeit that cosmic influences external to our solar system may also play a role, by affecting the nuclear fusion processes inside the sun ─ but humans do have an effect on the climate, and it's not just because of carbon dioxide emissions. It's also the pollution, which not only corrupts the quality of the air we breathe, but also kills off several species that are all important to our ecosystem. And the one sector of society most responsible for this pollution is the industry ─ not the activity of individuals, nor small-scale agriculture.

On account of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, what they need to do to, first and foremost, is put a halt to the destruction of the Brazilian rain forest. This has a significant impact on the quality of our atmosphere in general. Not only do rain forests absorb carbon dioxide, but they also give us clean oxygen in return. In addition to that, rain forests are also the natural habitats of many species of animals, from the tiniest to the larger.

The rate at which the Brazilian rain forest is shrinking has already been beyond alarming for decades, but government corruption and bribes are keeping the deforestation going.

31st January 2019, 00:39
I do agree that humans do pollute and destroy the Earth, especially by killing the rainforests and that is sad indeed. We should be helping Earth to heal, not kill it. After we are we all share this same being that we live and that is mother Earth, Gaia. Nature has provided us all this beauty and this is the amount that humans have respect for it.

31st January 2019, 07:16
I do agree that humans do pollute and destroy the Earth, especially by killing the rainforests and that is sad indeed. We should be helping Earth to heal, not kill it. After we are we all share this same being that we live and that is mother Earth, Gaia. Nature has provided us all this beauty and this is the amount that humans have respect for it.

Amen to that!

1st February 2019, 01:18
Copied from a newsletter I received from David DuByne & Adapt 2030.

Personally I'm not afraid and there's no need for that anyways. Awareness is the key. This is Earth's way of changing things, because things need to change. What ever time we still have left, I think that we should use it wisely. Also we should be grateful for what we have, it might not be there always.

Good Afternoon Everyone,

With the multi-generational super freeze under way across the U.S and parts of Canada, it should be apparent that the following is happening and you are on your own in terms of preparation and self sufficiency.

1. The warnings for this unprecedented all time record cold event could have been put out six days prior to the arrival of the storm. The reason in my opinion is that the "warming narrative" needs to stay intact at all costs, including your life. Governments want to maintain as long as they can the illusion that everything is ok and under control.

2. The US power grid is antiquated and for some reason is not being upgraded, already in this record cold five locations with hundreds of thousands of people without power. Again comes back to the warnings, people could have been better prepared for the freeze in the home.

3. Grand Solar Minimum is now becoming more widely known and spoken about in the overall media, but the ratio of GSM will have no effect is around 17:1 of dont panic it will only cool 0.3C. Every time an article comes out about possible GSM cooling, immediately main stream media in hyper drive to smother the net with articles to the contrary.

4. The global economy is contracting, but food giants are now removing access to fresh foods, leaving only packaged foods available for customers. When you prepare long term food storage, bulk items will become less available. Ice Age Farmer, Christian Westbrook goes into great detail about this in his YT channel.

5. The global economy will be purposely imploded to the point that most value will evaporate from the planet in order to lock you down and restrict your travel and relocation plans or availability to sell your home.

As I have said from the beginning of my channel, 2020 will be the wake up moment for the planet, price will spike as the "we must get ready" thoughts sweep the planet. Our lives will be forever changed by 2021.

David DuByne
ADAPT 2030

21st April 2019, 23:56
A writing from a friend of mine:

9th May 2019, 15:48

9th May 2019, 16:24
From my research, solar activity has little effect on the Earth's climate. The Maunder minimum did coincide with a cooler period, and the two seem related, but the onset was fairly gradual as was the ending. However, there is at least one much more likely cause of a global cooling and that is of a large volcanic eruption. Look up The Year Without a Summer, 1816.

Ice cores have conclusively shown exactly when these events have occurred over the past few thousand years, and the effect on climate is recorded in the trapped air in these ice cores when analysed. The occasional extraterrestrial impact has also had an effect (not just the big asteroids) every few tens of thousands of years.

Neither event is really predictable (well, maybe a few days in advance) and can cause temperatures to fall in less than a week, and the effects last months or maybe a year or two.

I'm not going to bother about the coming Grand Solar Minimum. It may be approaching and maybe not. Even if it does come, humanity will probably have a decade or two to adjust. It won't happen overnight - another Mount Tambora explosion is another matter...


9th May 2019, 18:51
sounds good to me Barb...sidestepping all the useless controversy would let us act in a responsible manner...period. Has it ever been a good idea to shove tons of junk into the atmosphere and oceans...Simple logic tells me no.

9th May 2019, 23:26
From my research, solar activity has little effect on the Earth's climate. The Maunder minimum did coincide with a cooler period, and the two seem related, but the onset was fairly gradual as was the ending. However, there is at least one much more likely cause of a global cooling and that is of a large volcanic eruption. Look up The Year Without a Summer, 1816.

The Sun is in fact the main driver of Earth's climate, as unfortunate or fortunate as that may be. What we see on the news about carbon dioxide and the human cause is 99 % propaganda and lies, at best they're highly mistaken. Solar cycle 25 is about to start late this year or perhaps next year and it will be a very weak one... The implications of that are quite severe. Volcanoes will only contribute to the cooling. There will be "some" time left, but not too much. The question of course is what you could do about that and the answer is not much. Besides being self-sufficient, if that is your thing. I take life as it comes and try not to worry too much even if know what's coming. And yes, we should stop polluting and destroying the Earth, even a child should know that. Sadly, it's not the case. C'est la vie.

11th May 2019, 19:31
Yes, solar cycle 25 is due to start in the next year to 18 months. But this is only the sunspot and magnetic field cycle. There is some evidence that lower solar activity increases the earth's exposure to cosmic rays, which in turn slightly increases cloud cover. But it appears not to be very dramatic or it would be more obvious. Just look back at weather records, solar activity and grain prices. There may be longer underlying cycles that we've not been around enough to observe - the maunder Minimum could be one of them.

The difference in solar radiation between absolute maximum and minimum is much less that one percent! One of the many reasons why complex life on Earth has evolved is because the sun's output is very stable.


12th May 2019, 11:24
So it's asteroids and volcanoes that cause the most sudden change. Some of that is cyclical and some isn't.

Some people are exploring the sun's connection to earth activities like volcanoes.

Obviously, we'd like to be able to scientifically predict things.

I have seen no imminent disasters in dreams, so I believe we're good for now.

18th May 2019, 23:42
Beautifullll and easy plus factual, Wind, xlent post.

The Sun is in fact the main driver of Earth's climate, as unfortunate or fortunate as that may be. What we see on the news about carbon dioxide and the human cause is 99 % propaganda and lies, at best they're highly mistaken. Solar cycle 25 is about to start late this year or perhaps next year and it will be a very weak one... The implications of that are quite severe. Volcanoes will only contribute to the cooling. There will be "some" time left, but not too much. The question of course is what you could do about that and the answer is not much. Besides being self-sufficient, if that is your thing. I take life as it comes and try not to worry too much even if know what's coming. And yes, we should stop polluting and destroying the Earth, even a child should know that. Sadly, it's not the case. C'est la vie.

Another theory is that this is all very spiritual >

2012: End of Linear Time – 2013: Beginning of a New Galactic Time
by Stephanie South

For the galactic Maya, this (2012) is the fulfillment of a vast engineering project in time …
—José Argüelles

When José Argüelles first began speaking about the date 12-21-2012 in the mid-1970s virtually no one knew what he was talking about. Until The Mayan Factor was published in 1987, when the 2012 date was first dropped into the mass consciousness, next to no one knew about it.

The purpose of The Mayan Factor was to alert people to the conclusion of the cycle of history in 2012, and the tremendous shift in consciousness this date augured. This book along with the 1987 Harmonic Convergence put 2012 on the map as well as turned the world’s attention toward the Maya.

Argüelles believed that the closing of the Great Cycle marked the entry point of the passage of the entire galaxy into an inconceivable stage of harmonic synchronization, creating a shift in the patterns that ultimately affect our relationship to ourselves and the universe. He believed that 2013 would be the time of real magic; a time of integration and stabilization at a higher level of consciousness when humans would “test drive” their newly awakened powers. He believed that humans were meant to become living oracles with the capacity of divination – to know all through mind; to tune into and resonate with all levels of being.

He travelled the world several times over promoting a harmonic 13 Moon/28-day calendar to help people break the spell of linear/Gregorian thinking, and help them elevate their minds to galactic consciousness in anticipation of a frequency shift by 12-21-2012. He believed that humanity unified in galactic consciousness was the key to understanding, transforming and transcending our current global crisis.
[Image of Pacal Votan's sarcophagus lid]
Argüelles’s vision and life mission can be traced to the opening of the tomb of Pacal Votan (Lord Pakal) in Palenque in 1952. This tomb, with its unparalleled artistry and symbolism, and the mystery of the man buried there were significant in defining the causes of José’s life mission. (Incidentally José passed away in March 2011, just two months after the archaeologists sealed the tomb lid of Pacal for good).

One year after the opening of the tomb of Pacal Votan, in 1953, José’s father brought him and his twin brother, Ivan, to Teotihuacan, Mexico where, at age 14, he had his first vision atop the Pyramid of the Sun. Atop the pyramid, he had a white light experience regarding his life mission to “find the knowledge of the masters who built and designed Teotihuacan and bring it back to the modern world.” From this point on his life was increasingly devoted to decoding the Mayan mathematics and prophecies.

To appreciate the vast scope of his vision in relation to the changing cycle, we will look at three levels: galactic level, scientific level and human level.

Galactic level: 12-21-2012 marks the conclusion of the passage of our solar system through a galactic synchronization beam.

Scientific level: 2012 marks the conclusion of the biosphere-noosphere transition, the scientific term for the present planetary crisis.

Human level: 2012 is humanity’s deadline to collectively change its consciousness.

The Galactic Level

Argüelles believed that we are part of a larger galactic engineering project being engineered from another dimension. He perceived the galactic Maya as star travellers who incarnated here, at a specified time, to seed the planet and to leave clues of our planetary being for this stage of our transformation. He believed the Galactic Maya (not to be confused with Classic Maya) were masters of time travel and telepathy who brought to this planet a system of astronomy and mathematical calendrics, which were the jewels of a particular knowledge system.

In The Mayan Factor Argüelles put forth that the Mayan calendar is actually a measure for calibrating different beams or density waves. He concluded that what we call the 13 baktun Great Cycle is actually the measure of a synchronization beam through which our solar system is currently passing. This beam cycle began in 3113 BC and ends in 2012 AD.

The beam, 5,125 years in diameter, commenced 13 August B.C. 3113, a date marked by the Mayan calendar long count as, 4 Ahau. This precise date, 4 Ahau will occur again on December 21, 2012. Exactly 1,872,000 days will have passed, a cycle of 13 baktuns of 144,000 days each. But this beam is just the last fifth of a larger beam that is close to 26,000-tun (25,625-years) that corresponds to a whole evolutionary phase.

According to The Mayan Factor, the Maya had a mission to make sure that planets and star system are synchronized with the galactic beam by 12-21-2012. The affect of the beam on Earth is the acceleration of human activity around the planet. This is called recorded history. This also creates material technology. Toward the end of beam, where we now find ourselves, acceleration becomes exponential with 7 billion humans, exponential curves of carbon dioxide, changes in weather, species extinction, war, drought, etc. This is what Argüelles referred to as the climax of history and matter, the end of the 13th baktun.

As we reach the beam’s end, José foresaw a major evolutionary upgrading of the planetary life process that would begin to be stabilized in 2013. At this point the Earth will be perfectly aligned with galactic center in the constellation Sagittarius. He anticipated a period of adjustment until the new beam phases in by July 26, 2013 – galactic synchronization.

The beam knowledge first occurred to him in 1986, while meditating on the sunspot cycles at the pyramids of Coba. He had a vision of the 13-baktun cycle as a type of beam emanated through the Sun. This beam, he saw, consisted of five 1025-year (1040-tun) sub-cycles = 5200 tun (5 x 1040) or 5125 years (5 x 1025) in duration. He perceived that the beams are sent from the center of the galaxy (Hunab Ku) and then focalized through the Sun through a type of radio program that coordinates the sunspot cycles.

These sunspot cycles then transit the beam through peak solar activity, sending solar information to Earth. When the energy beam changes its frequency, the filter (Sun) changes accordingly. Different ages represented different stages of the beam.

[Graphic illustrating the galactic beam as a historical cycle and Mayan time engineering experiment]

He perceived that the Maya were able to pick up the solar pulsations and calibrate the incidence between solar activity and human activation. This meant they could calibrate human activity and watch it plunge deeper into materialism and further from nature.

He understood that the electromagnetic field is a function of and controlled by the solar sunspot cycles. He likened the sunspot cycles to solar initiations that affect the electromagnetic field, creating different mental quickening or shifts in consciousness. This process, he perceived, accounts for shifts of time, thinking and beliefs throughout history.

Argüelles believed that the sunspots function cyclically and are carriers of information from different star systems and dimensions to planet earth. What we call the sunspot cycles, he perceived as the pulsations of the minds of the solar masters, the ahau kin. Their minds pulse to the binary sunspot cycle in approximate 11.3-year cycles and then change polarity approximately every 23 years. When those sunspots reach maximum points, it discharges. Massive discharges means the Sun is undergoing major internal initiations. Of course our current sunspot cycle is set to peak in 2013.

He concluded that the 260-unit Tzolkin sacred calendar was a tool used by the Maya to record the binary pulsation of the sunspots, with its cycle of thirteen units repeated twenty times for a total of 260 days. Sixteen of these Tzolkin cycles comprise an 11.3 year period, the time for one major binary sunspot cycle to complete itself. The pulsation of each of the binary spots would account for eight Tzolins, which he mapped out in his book Earth Ascending (1983).

He perceived that so-called sun worshipers in places like Tikal and Copan were really taking readings on the galactic frequencies as measured through sunspot cycles and recorded them on stone monuments or stelae. He felt this was the key to the Aztec predictions of the coming sixth sun of consciousness.

He also discovered that the Tzolkin is a harmonic of the Great Cycle and can be used to map out the entire 5,125-year historical cycle, as if it is measuring not individual gestation but species gestation, since five great cycles totals 26,000 tuns, a fractal of the 260-day human gestation cycle. He called this mapping the wave harmonic of history, the actual information structure of the beam, which he felt was a key code behind unlocking the meaning of our own planetary dilemma.

[Graphic showing 13 Baktun cycle]

Scientific Level: Law of Time and Biosphere-Noosphere Transition

Argüelles believed that 2012-2013 is the time of the biosphere-noosphere transition, a theory originally put forth by Russian geochemist Vladimir Vernadsky. In this context, the 5,125-year cycle is but an instant of geological time and so can be perceived as a mutative phase. The mutative phase of the biosphere complete, a new evolutionary stage begins: the noosphere.

The biosphere-noosphere transition directly relates to Argüelles’s 1989 discovery of the Law of Time, which makes a distinction between artificial time and natural time. The Law of Time states that the galaxy and everything in it is held together by one common timing frequency, a 13:20 ratio constant, which maintains everything in a unified condition through synchronization. This 13:20 ratio can be found in the human body with its 13 main articulations and twenty fingers and toes.

By contrast, modern civilization operates by an artificial, irregular mechanistic timing frequency or 12:60 ratio (12-month calendar, 60-minute clock) this is the artificial frequency, which is an actual paradigm or belief system that the human race lives in. This belief system is held in place by the Vatican’s Gregorian calendar that creates the world paradigm of time is money.

These numbers 1260 and 1320 are keys to the discovery of the Law of Time and prophecy of Pacal Votan. Pacal’s tomb was sealed for precisely 1260 years before it was opened (from 692 AD to 1952). And in 2012, 1320 years will have passed since its opening. (1320 is also an anagram for 2013).

Argüelles saw that the whole Earth is now encapsulated in this artificial machine frequency that is destroying our planet by disrupting the homeostasis which keeps everything in balance. When the homeostasis is sufficiently disturbed then a shift is inevitable.

He felt that the crisis the world is now undergoing is the effect of the biosphere-noosphere transition, the chaotic and dissipative shift into the new order of planetary reality. In a 2009 article, he wrote:

“… when we speak of the advent of the noosphere we are referring to the mental disclosure of a new cosmically generated holographic field fractal – one that will replace the old one. All it would take for this to occur is a momentary break in the planetary electromagnetic field brought about by an immense Coronal Mass Ejection, or even a shift in the Sun’s polar magnetism. In that momentary rupture of the terrestrial electromagnetic field, many negative conditioned beliefs (memories) could be erased or severely scrambled, and, more significantly, a new operating holographic field fractal might be instantaneously set in place. In this way, the next wave of cosmic evolutionary intelligence would reveal itself.”

Human Level: 13 Moon Calendar

With the knowledge of the galactic engineering project and with the discovery of the Law of Time, Argüelles perceived that his duty was to help educate humanity toward a new timing sensibility. He noted that most of the troubles in the world today are a result of placing our trust in human laws and machine technology, rather than trusting the natural law of the cosmos.

From his exhaustive studies into different world calendars and the Mayan calendar, Argüelles concluded that a calendar is a programming device whereby the society that uses it creates its psychic field of influence and organizes its collective life.

In the Gregorian calendar there’s is very little cyclic or periodic order. Months are uneven; the length of months does not correlate with number of seven-day weeks that exist and the numbers change every month. There is not cyclic or periodic order; this is why civilization is a chaotic disorder.

He saw that as a species we had veered out of synch, away from our natural attunement with the cosmos and into a linear way of operating. So the question was: how to break the linear time habit? How do we access galactic consciousness?

By following the clues left by the Maya, José discovered the synchronic order, a systematic set of mathematical codes that reveals the larger evolutionary patterning. He called these the Dreamspell codes. He found the simplest way to access these mathematical codes was through daily use of the 13 Moon/28-day matrix. As deceptively simple as this sounds, it has profound implications, so much so that he traveled the world several times over bringing this message to every continent. He referred to this calendar as a “synchronometer” or measure of synchronicity, rather than calendar (derived from calends which means account book).

The 13 Moon calendar is a solar-galactic cycle that meshes the 365-day third-dimensional solar cycle with the 260-day fourth-dimensional galactic cycle (tzolkin) every 52 years. It can be used as an intermediary between one’s mind and being and the experience of the form and process of galactic consciousness. Its daily use helps entrain the consciousness into the threshold of galactic consciousness.

[Graphic showing irregular 12-month calendar side by side with harmonic 13 Moon/28-day calendar]

The 13 Moon calendar runs precisely on a program of 52-year solar galactic cycles and is correlated with the traditional date of the heliacal rising of Sirius, July 26. It takes approximately 52 years for Sirius B to revolve around Sirius A. Incidentally Sirius as a binary star was discovered in 1926, the same year as when the word “noosphere” was coined.

Being fourth-dimensional in nature the 13 Moon calendar also serves as a master synchronization matrix so that any other calendar system can be plugged into it. This program establishes the matrix of what Argüelles refers to as the synchronic order.

A key to the 13:28 cycle can also be found in the tomb lid of Pacal Votan and in the Tzolkin. There are thirteen clear signs carved along the four edges of the sarcophagus lid of the tomb. The South edge of the lid contains two glyphs: Kin 60, representing Pacal’s incarnation, and Kin 58, representing his disincarnation. The eastern edge of the lid contains one set of four seals and another set of two. The tone numbers of the first four seals add up to 28, and the tone numbers of the second set of seals add up to 13. Argüelles believed this demonstrated the code of the 13 Moon/28-day calendar. (As synchronicity would have it, José passed away precisely 1,328 years after the death of Pacal Votan in 683 AD).

The purpose of the 13 Moon calendar is to assist humans in shifting frequency. By following a cyclic, harmonic measure, human consciousness can enter into a non-linear standard of time, not through any grand theory, but simply by following a galactic cycle day-to-day.

In order to spread the message of the 13 Moons and galactic time, he, with the assistance of his wife, created the 13 Moon Calendar Change Peace Movement, an Earth-centered peace movement adopting the Nicholas Roerich Banner of Peace as its symbol. As a result, the 13 Moon calendar spread to more than 90 countries worldwide.

In January 2010, he received the highest honor of the International Committee of the Banner of Peace in Mexico City: the Nicholas Roerich Peace Medal for his lifetime work as a world peace activist.

The essence of his message was: human civilization is living in artificial time that is destroying the biosphere. To reverse this situation requires a collective return to natural time in reverence with the Earth where time is not money but Time is Art. José wrote:

“… The ancient Maya foresaw that the next evolutionary cycle would be the true solar age. They envisioned 2012 as the entry point or gate of a purified humanity ready for the new solar age. And they were right. The Sun is undergoing a tremendous transformation right now, altering the very nature of life on Earth. In order for us to survive, we've got to strip down – get rooted in the garden, and lighten our load. In the new Solar Age we will learn that our telepathic thought waves are really solar signals, and that our mental evolution through the noosphere is to prepare us for heightened soul travel. We'll all become like one being with a billion autonomous cells, working in unison to become enlightened. And since we will see that we are the planet, we will know that it is the planet that is becoming enlightened, and our job is to make it an enlightened work of art – an art planet, a jewel of the galaxy…”

29th August 2019, 13:45
I trust this guy, Ben Davidson, any day over all the other mainstream scientists and talking heads.

He really knows what he is talking about when it comes to climate change.

Enjoy the neat one hour long presentation, hopefully with an open mind.


29th August 2019, 20:04
the data output from the model is a direct result of the input. The algorithm that calculates total energy. If the model shows a drop in energy, the model would reflect that, there would be no reason to balance the inputs...the inputs are algorithmically pre-defined....that is what a model does. Total energy drop from the sun doesn't mean that the human impact has to be increased because if it did then the fudged balancing of human input would not total the energy input of the model. In other words, the result would be different and incorrect?

I agree that predictive capability is completely contingent on the quality of the model...but I don't think it is valid to suggest that numbers have to be smoozed to reach a mathematical calculation. That assumes that the numbers/outcome has been determined before the calculations have been conducted. Is that what he is suggesting?

I intend to watch more of it later... And read literature from the climatologist that is considered the best in the world.

Go to the top, I always say...

I had an online discussion with a climatologist from the University of Texas, a few years ago. I thought he was going to spout Al Gore at me but it was then that I realized who he was and the fact that he was a Professor at the highly respected UT (Same University as Hal Puthoff). He acquitted his side pretty ok, but still, on such an apparent controversial subject, I would question his level of expertise to speak as the bona fide subject matter expert... :)