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Dreamtimer
23rd August 2017, 19:08
Fake polls have real impacts.


Is Kid Rock leading the U.S. Senate race in Michigan?

Delphi Analytica released a poll fielded from July 14 to July 18. Republican Kid Rock earned 30 percent to Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s 26 percent.

Websites like Daily Caller, Political Wire and Twitchy all wrote about it. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott tweeted it out. And finally, Kid Rock himself shared an article from Gateway Pundit about the poll.

Delphi Analytica’s website came online July 6, mere weeks before the Kid Rock poll was supposedly conducted. The pollster had basically no fingerprint on the web.

Indeed, Delphi Analytica isn’t a polling firm in any traditional sense, and it’s not entirely clear they even conducted the poll as advertised.

Much of the polling industry is moving online, where conducting a survey is far less expensive than making thousands of phone calls. But that lower price has also opened up polling to all sorts of new people

If you’re a political observer interested in polls or a journalist who writes about them, you need to be more careful than ever.

Transparency is one of the central tenets of the polling industry. But no individuals are listed as employees on the Delphi Analytica website. Additionally, the site is registered to Domains By Proxy, LLC, a service that keeps the names of a website’s registrant or registrants hidden.

Michael McDonald...follows political betting markets and had previously contacted me [Harry Enten] about another survey firm, CSP Polling, that he believed was a shell organization started by some people who use PredictIt, a betting market for political propositions.

McDonald said that CSP stood for “Cuck Shed Polling.” Like Delphi Analytica, CSP Polling doesn’t list anyone who works there on its website.

[A] person can put out a poll and get people to place bets in response to it — in this case, some people may have bet on a Kid Rock win — and the poll’s creators can short that position (bet that the value of the position will go down). In a statement, Lee said Delphi Analytica was not created to move the markets. Still, shares of the stock for Michigan’s 2018 Senate race saw their biggest action of the year by far the day after Delphi Analytica published its survey.

There are less well known pollsters who correctly gauge the electorate even when many traditional pollsters don’t — pollsters like Robert Calahy, who runs the Trafalgar Group and who was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016; he was one of the few who correctly anticipated Trump’s victory. He says he’s had some difficulty getting accepted by some members of the media because he isn’t as well-known as more traditional pollsters. He told me that he completely agreed that the existence of fake firms makes it easier for skeptical members of the media to dismiss all pollsters they are unfamiliar with.

Public polls can also influence donors, Geller says. Donors don’t want to back a likely loser. Voters themselves can be influenced as well.

In this case, Delphi Analytica’s claims may have made Kid Rock more seriously consider entering the Michigan Senate race. He retweeted the results, after all.

Republican Kid Rock earned 30 percent to Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s 26 percent. A sitting U.S. senator was losing to a man who sang the lyric, “If I was president of the good ol’ USA, you know I’d turn our churches into strip clubs and watch the whole world pray.”

Source (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fake-polls-are-a-real-problem/)

We should probably be very careful about which "Fake" stuff we decide to take on faith.

Dreamtimer
23rd August 2017, 19:20
Harry followed up with an article on how to assess polls. (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-avoid-falling-for-a-fake-poll/)

Dumpster Diver
24th August 2017, 01:48
Lately I'm getting really annoyed with folks mixing alt-world with alt-right. Kid Rock is alt-wrong, IMO.

Dreamtimer
26th August 2017, 16:45
Deep waters...


I'm running for office here in Virginia, in a deep red district, against a man who hasn't been challenged in almost a decade. Who has a warchest almost unparalleled in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Who is close enough to the Trump family...he was okay with his name being used in association with the phrase "Trump values are Virginia values".


But I’m taking him on- and I’m going to win.

D’you know how I know that? Because there is a progressive revolution brewing in Trump Country.


The thing you gotta understand is that even in my district, a 54% Trump district, exactly how many people voted for Donald Trump as a giant middle finger to both the Republican and Democratic parties, combined with the number of people who didn’t vote for President, is huge. Yuuuuuge, even. And that sentiment hasn't changed since November.


On primary day, though we didn't have an opponent, I drove to every single polling place in our district, and made sure to talk to everyone- Republican, Democrat, and independent- that I could. In the 208 miles we covered, what blew me away is even at the official Republican Party booths that were set up, the volunteers manning them would openly malign the Republican party. The infamous "both sides are horrible, but we can't vote for a Democrat."


Why can't they vote for a Democrat? They really couldn't articulate that. Nancy Pelosi's name came up more than once. One person, when I identified myself as a Democrat, said, "Oh! So you're a baby killer?" But as I talked to even that guy, it turns out he didn't want to make abortion illegal, and thought birth control should be free and over-the-counter...


So their idea of a Democrat is a Nancy Pelosi-clone who loves abortion. And year after year, nobody bothers to ever correct that misapprehension. Nobody bothers to stand up to the nonsense my opponent spews. D’you still wonder why they keep voting Republican?

Because even in the "reddest" parts of my district, people are yearning, are begging, for an unapologetic progressive who'll fight for THEM. Who will stand up for THEM.


Don't believe me? Let's look at some combined polling of ALL voters from last November, courtesy of the PCCC:

58% of all Americans favor "Medicare for All".
73% want to end partisan gerrymandering.
66% support raising the minimum wage.
72% are in favor of major political money reform.
77% are in favor of universal pre-K.
61% believe the upper echelons don't pay their fair share of taxes, and disproportionately.
62% support, at minimum, aggressive economic-based affirmative action for public college and universities.


You want to talk about centrism? Let’s look at those numbers above. Progressivism is the new American center. D’you know all those “heartland” voters we keep trying to reach by espousing third wayist nonsense? The reason we can’t get it done is because middle America is located smack dab in the middle of the polling data above.

Source (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/24/1682438/-There-s-a-progressive-revolution-brewing-in-Trump-country)
(Most actual progressives in America are not about NWO or Agenda 20xx.)