Interesting Cliff High Woo Woo Begins 57 min. in + Wilcock/Goode Skewing Data For Commercial Gain

[Herbert]

R8snogdLWSI

[Lord Sidious]

No sense of touch?
The largest sensory organ is the skin

[Aianawa]

Best woo woo in ages, maybe up to date woo woo or even imo in line with Matt Kahns woo woo lol

[Dumpster Diver]

Every time I watch Clif, I find myself thinking I need to:

buy at least $20K worth of silver
at get at least 3 years of canned food
buy guns & ammo
dig a bunker
live in it...

...then I wake up. It's no way to live my final years.

I've done some of the futuristic data dredging...

...it really doesn't work that well and you can make a ton of mistakes. But then again, maybe he is better at it than I.

[Dumpster Diver]

Here's the other problem I have with Clif High:

Economic forecasting is tough. You really don't have that many intervals to check how you are doing and in Time Series Economic forecasting things change over time, they just do. And there are so many factors that can impact your modeling.

In sports (which we do a lot, I'm part owner in a sports data/forecasting company) you can have thousands, certainly hundreds of opportunities per month to see how you are doing. In economics, maybe 10-20 per month usually at most (yeah, did some of that as well). You can be clicking along doing really well...and then...something changes. You typically don't know what. Clif mentions it in this video and blames it on DW and CG....yeah, right, but how do you really know?

I had years were we forecast the NFL at 75%+ against the line. This was over 200+ games in the "near strike" season a few years back; sides was much better than totals. BTW, this is exceedingly hard to do. Then something changed...and then we struggled to hit 52-53%. What happened? The league changed? Data problems? Model problems? Injuries? What? You mostly only have guesses.

This is why I won't run to the hills based on anything Clif High says. He could have been very right on several occasions...for the wrong reasons. I had a very wrong model that did quite well for well over 100 games. Push to shove, I think Clif would not even know. Model "proving" is a difficult science...and it changes. In my experience, nothing stays the same. Nothing.

[Dreamtimer]

Are you familiar with Martin Armstrong Dumpy?

[Dumpster Diver]

Are you familiar with Martin Armstrong Dumpy?

Yes, I subscribe to his e-mail string. I'm a Zero Hedge guy as well. Long ago, I would have been consider a Hedge Fund guy as I did several of Edward O. Thorp "reverse hedges" using warrants and stocks. This was all before the Options market got started (CBOE). Yeah, I'm THAT old.

[Elen]

I like his explanation of the situation. It's making a lot of sense.